In the first article of my positional buys and sells for guillotine leagues, I highlighted three quarterbacks I'm targeting and three I'm avoiding in drafts this season. This week, I'm focusing on running back.
In my effort to build a balanced roster, I'm most likely going to end up with two running backs in the first four rounds. If I'm playing in a league that only requires two starting wide receivers, the backs will come off the board quickly, and I'm more likely to lock in two backs in the first three rounds. If the league requires three wide receivers, that will usually push the pass-catchers up and give some more flexibility to wait until the fourth or fifth to get my RB2. Either way, you don't want to end up with Isiah Pacheco as your second starting back, as a drafter in one of my leagues did.
Remember: in guillotine leagues, if you're not last, you're first. It's all about survival. Who are the safe, underrated players you should be targeting? And the week-to-week risky players you should avoid? Let's dive in.
For average draft position, I looked at NFFC Eliminator Championship data, where the sharpest fantasy players are investing real money. Want to play directly against me? I'll be drafting in an Eliminator league with a $100 entry fee on September 1st at 10:30pm ET. Join here. And if you're new to NFFC, sign up with code THEO for a signup bonus!
RBs To Target in Guillotine Leagues
Omarion Hampton, Chargers
NFFC Eliminator ADP: RB9 (pick 14)
In typical redraft leagues, Hampton is being selected at the Round 1-2 turn, but I've seen him go as high as third overall in a high-stakes league. I'm not that high on him, but I do give him a boost into the top 10 in guillotine drafts based on a favorable starting schedule. With home games against Arizona and Las Vegas to start the season, Los Angeles should be able to get ahead and control those games on the ground.
The Chargers have the fifth easiest schedule for fantasy running backs based on RotoWire's Strength of Schedule tool. Taking the early schedule into consideration, I push Hampton ahead of Ashton Jeanty and James Cook.
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Tony Pollard, Titans
NFFC Eliminator ADP: RB27 (pick 65)
Here's some trivia to stump your friends: other than Derrick Henry, who is the only running back with at least 1,000 rushing yards in each of the last four seasons? That would be Tennessee's underappreciated back Tony Pollard, who also has at least 33 catches and more than 200 receiving yards in each of those seasons.
Pollard's upside has been limited by a poor offense, as he only scored five touchdowns in each of the last two seasons in Tennessee, but his volume of touches makes him a solid floor play at his average draft position. The way he finished the 2025 season is encouraging. Pollard was the third-leading rusher in the league from weeks 13-18, trailing only Derrick Henry and Bijan Robinson.
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Rachaad White, Commanders
NFFC Eliminator ADP: RB35 (pick 98)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt sits atop Washington's unofficial depth chart at the moment, but I'm betting on White to end up being the safer fantasy player from week to week. Earlier this summer, coach Dan Quinn named White as one of the standout performers from OTAs and minicamp. White's pass-catching ability makes him a threat for the three-plus receptions per game that Austin Ekeler contributed in 2024. In both 2023 and 2024, White also found the endzone nine times, so he has shown that he's not just a receiver moving the chains between the 20s.
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RBs To Avoid in Guillotine Leagues
Kenneth Walker, Chiefs
NFFC Eliminator ADP: RB12 (pick 18)
Kudos to Walker for turning a late season surge into a Super Bowl MVP award and a big three-year free-agent contract. Prior to that, he averaged just 10.1 PPR fantasy points per game with four touchdowns through the first 14 games of the season. That includes five games with fewer than seven PPR points.
Fantasy football fans have been clamoring for a good back to find his way to Kansas City for years, and now that it finally happened, I think Walker is a bit overrated. In eight years as starting quarterback, Patrick Mahomes has never had a 1,000-yard rusher by his side. You can argue that's because of the lack of talent that the Chiefs have had at the position, but it's worth noting that Walker himself has never topped 1,100 rush yards or nine TDs. Yet he's being picked in the same tier as Derrick Henry and Kyren Williams, who have both provided an automatic 1,200-plus rush yards and double-digit touchdowns for multiple years.
Add the fact that the Chiefs have the earliest bye week this season (Week 5), and that adds another level of risk that I'm just not willing to take that early in the draft. It's too hard to replace an early round pick's production so early in the season.
Jeremiyah Love, Cardinals
NFFC Eliminator ADP: RB15 (pick 28)
Love has settled into a reasonable ADP and remains an exciting upside play for best ball and typical redraft leagues, but in guillotine leagues he carries a lot of risk. He's a rookie in a crowded running back room with a new coaching staff for a team projected to win about four games this season. It wouldn't be surprising to see him struggle to produce early in the season, and that one bad game could send you home for the season. Buy him in your dynasty league. Let someone else have him in guillotine.
TreVeyon Henderson, Patriots
NFFC Eliminator ADP: RB24 (pick 51)
Are we really sure that Henderson is even going to be the most productive running back on his team? I'm not. I've heard it said by a couple of my RotoWire colleagues: Henderson is the most expensive handcuff ever. Yes, the upside is huge. But what was New England's gameplan in the games that really mattered? They gave Rhamondre Stevenson 70 touches during the playoff run, while Henderson saw 35 touches.
Until I see Henderson consistently getting at least 15 touches per game, I can't consider him more than a high risk, high reward fifth-round pick in guillotine leagues.
