Texans vs. Bills Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Week 1
One of the best matchups of Week 1 features the Texans hosting the Bills. Both teams have Super Bowl aspirations after being eliminated in the Divisional Round last year. Let's look at the betting side of this battle and highlight some of the top wagers to consider.
Texans vs. Bills Betting Odds
Texans: Spread +1.5 (-112), +102 Moneyline (FanDuel)
Bills: Spread -1.5 (-108), -115 Moneyline (Circa Sports)
Game Total: 44.5 points (DraftKings)
The Texans have already lost wide receiver Jayden Higgins (knee) for the season. Tank Dell (knee) is also on injured reserve to begin the year, which prompted the team to acquire Kayshon Boutte in a trade with the Patriots late in the preseason. The Bills enter Week 1 healthy on offense and will have a new No.1 wide receiver in DJ Moore at their disposal.
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Texans vs. Bills Betting Picks
David Montgomery over 54.5 rush yards (-114 FanDuel) for 1 Unit
The big splash that the Texans made on offense this offseason was signing Montgomery away from the Lions. While being in the shadow of Jahmyr Gibbs last season, Montgomery averaged 4.5 yards per carry, including 2.9 yards after contact. Woody Marks is still in the picture for the Texans, but he only averaged 3.6 yards per carry and 2.3 yards after contact last year. Montgomery isn't going to churn out 20+ carry game logs with his new team, but he should still see significantly more work than Marks.
When these two teams battled in Week 12 last season, Marks ran 16 times for 74 yards. Nick Chubb had six carries for 16 yards. We could see Montgomery fill the role that Marks had, while Marks finishes with closer to the number of carries that Chubb had. The Bills allowed the fewest passing yards per game in the NFL last year, but they allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per contest. That included them giving up 4.99 yards per carry to running backs, which was the third highest mark in the league. With Montgomery having the potential for around 15 carries in this game, the over is the way to go with his rushing prop.
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Bills team total 23.5 points: UNDER (-120 FanDuel) for 1 Unit
The Bills were fourth in the NFL last season with an average of 28.3 points per game. Josh Allen and James Cook III are back to lead the unit, and Moore has the potential to be an upgrade over Stefon Diggs, who is now on the Commanders. Even Dalton Kincaid, who is a key part of their offense, is healthy heading into the opener.
It might be all good news for the Bills' offense, but facing the Texans can make even the best offenses look inept. Last season, they allowed just 17.4 points per game. The Bills rely heavily on Cook, but that could be a problem here because the Texans allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game. In their last matchup, Buffalo was limited to 19 points in Houston. In Week 5 of 2024, the Bills scored just 20 points against the Texans, a game that was also played in Houston. Asking the Bills to score at least 24 points in this matchup is a tall order.
Race to 30 points: Neither (-168 DraftKings) for 1 Unit
We're already on the Bills to score fewer than 24 points. It would be a complete shock if they reach 30 points. The Texans' dominant defense allowed at least 30 points in a game just one time last year, which came in Week 18 against the Colts. They only allowed at least 25 points in a game three times.
The Texans reached at least 30 points in a game just four times last year. They scored 23 points in their meeting with the Bills, which is the exact same number of points that they scored against them in their 2024 matchup. Given C.J. Stroud's struggles and their lack of weapons at wide receiver outside of Nico Collins, the Texans could be a run-heavy team. Even without Montgomery last year, they finished 13th in the NFL in rushing attempts. His arrival could mean longer drives that lead to fewer overall possessions in the game. These odds aren't exactly enticing, but don't expect either team to reach 30 points.
Texans vs. Bills Prediction
The Bills aren't the same team on the road that they are at home. They were 7-2 at home last year, but a more modest 5-3 on the road. They were 8-0 in Buffalo in 2024, but just 5-4 on the road. The Texans are coming off a 7-2 performance at home last year, and their defense is once again going to be among the best in the NFL. With Montgomery adding a stabilizing force to their rushing attack, look for them to start off the season with a victory.
Texans 20, Bills 17
