IDP Analysis: Top Risers & Fallers for Week 1

Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season is finally here. Congratulations to all of us for surviving another offseason.

The early weeks of IDP leagues can be exceptionally difficult as we see which players emerge from training camp competition and how new units gel and deploy new rookie and veteran talent. Avoiding landmines or correctly targeting upside could be the driving force in winning an early season matchup.

Below are some of the risers and fallers based on preseason performances, reports and Week 1 matchups. Let's dive in.

Be sure to consult our NFL injury report and the latest fantasy football news before setting your lineups. Also check out the Weekly Projections to see how this week's matchups shape up.

IDP Risers

Walter Nolen, DL, Cardinals

Walter Nolen didn't play much as a rookie in 2025, but the times he did play, he showed an ability to be a game-wrecker on the interior of the defensive line. According to PFF, Nolen generated a 15.1 percent pressure rate on 99 pass-rush snaps while generating 2.0 sacks in six games. Nolen is healthy entering his second season and was consistently making plays throughout training camp.

Trusting an interior defensive lineman in IDP leagues can be hit or miss, but Nolen gets a fantastic matchup in Week 1 against a maligned Chargers' interior offensive line. Los Angeles is already starting their backup center (second-round pick Jake Slaughter) between two unproven guards (Kayode Awosika and Cole Strange), a situation that could lead to a big day from Nolen.

Montez Sweat, DE, Bears

Montez Sweat may not be a premier edge rusher, but he's shown the ability to consistently impact games during his career with the Commanders and Bears. Sweat quietly finished 18th among edge rushers in pressures in 2025 (54) and 15th among all players in sacks (10.0). He also added 53 tackles and 13 tackles for loss.

Sweat will have an opportunity to get his 2026 season off to a hot start against the Panthers in Week 1. The veteran will line up across from 2026 rookie Monroe Freeling on the right side of the offensive line for most plays. Freeling was viewed by many as a raw player who needed developmental time, but he will be on the field to start his career thanks to blood clot issues for long-time right tackle Taylor Moton.

David Bailey, DE, Jets

The Jets selected Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey with the second pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Bailey, a Stanford transfer, exploded in his lone season with the Red Raiders, generating 52 tackles, 19.5 tackles for loss and 14.5 sacks. There were questions about his play strength and ability to impact the run, but there is no doubt that his speed off the edge can make an impact at the NFL level.

He will have an opportunity to have a big game in Week 1 against the Titans' subpar offensive line. Both of the team's returning tackles (Dan Moore and JC Latham) gave up a pressure on at least 6.4 percent of the team's dropbacks, with eight sacks surrendered each.  

Tykee Smith, S, Buccaneers

Tykee Smith was elevated to a full-time starter in 2025 after playing 13 games as a rookie in 2024. In 16 games, Smith amassed 100 tackles (61 solo), six tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks, 13 passes defended and an interception. More importantly, Smith got the usage we dream of for IDP safeties, logging 390 free safety snaps, 318 box snaps, 108 slot snaps and 53 snaps off the edge.

Smith will have plenty of opportunities to rack up big numbers in his first game of 2026 against the Bengals. The Bengals are first among all NFL teams in pass rate the last three seasons (64.1%), which puts Smith in a position to have a high floor in the tackle department and the upside of generating turnovers or sacks.  

Eric Wilson, LB, Vikings

Veteran linebacker Eric Wilson had one of his best career seasons in his return to the Vikings in 2025, posting 115 tackles (60 solo), 17 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks and four forced fumbles. Wilson ranked third among all off-ball linebackers with a 37.4 percent blitz rate in Brian Flores' aggressive defensive scheme.

His Week 1 opponent, the Packers, enter 2026 with a subpar offensive line that could be without two projected starters (left guard Aaron Banks and right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele) in their first game.

IDP Fallers

Washington Linebackers

The Washington Commanders poured resources into their entire defense this offseason, but arguably the most transformed position is their off-ball linebacker group. Unfortunately, that makes them difficult to trust in IDP leagues.

Frankie Luvu has averaged 92.5 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks in his two seasons with the Commanders, but split green dot duties with rookie first-round pick Sonny Styles in preseason, which puts both of their usage in question in 2026. Washington also paid veteran linebacker Leo Chenal a three-year, $24.75 million contract this offseason. All three linebackers will have roles, but going into the year we have no idea what that deployment will look like. That's a big deal in IDP formats.

Add in that Washington's Week 1 opponent, the Eagles, have a good offensive line capable of getting to the second level and it's hard to trust any of Washington's linebackers in your starting lineup to begin the season.

This is certainly a group with the talent worth targeting and stashing, but it may take patience to figure out when they can be used in fantasy.

CJ Allen, LB, Colts

The Colts drafted Georgia linebacker CJ Allen in the second round of the 2026 NFL Draft, expecting to get a centerpiece of their defense in 2026 and beyond. Unfortunately, a hamstring and calf injury have hampered Allen throughout training camp, putting his Week 1 status in question.

Allen's long-term future with the team isn't in question, but his early season role is while he tries to ramp up to make up for the reps he missed throughout the summer. The Colts likely will use a linebacker rotation early in the season with Allen, fellow rookie Bryce Boettcher and veteran Jaylon Carlies rotating alongside free agent acquisition Akeem Davis-Gaither.  

Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Browns

The Browns selected Toledo safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren in the second round of the 2026 NFL Draft. McNeil-Warren was one of the most dynamic safeties in college during his final college season, racking up 77 tackles (36 solo), 5.5 tackles for loss, five passes defended, 0.5 sacks and two interceptions. Ultimately, the concerns about his lack of high-end speed and competition level weren't enough to offset his size, physicality and nose for the football.

Even though the Browns have signaled they're ready to start rebuilding their defense after trading  Myles Garrett, it doesn't mean that they are pushing their young talent onto the field until he's ready. McNeil-Warren played in the team's third preseason game while the starters rested, signifying that he's a depth piece more than a starter.

There is a great chance that McNeil-Warren gradually takes over a starting safety role from Ronnie Hickman as the season goes on, but it will be hard to trust him until we see how the Browns will deploy their safeties in a new defensive system.

Josh Sweat, DL/LB, Cardinals

Earlier I highlighted how fantastic Walter Nolen's matchup is for the Cardinals against the Chargers in Week 1. That outlook isn't nearly as rosy for the Cardinals' edge rusher Josh Sweat.

Sweat is coming off a 12.0-sack season in 2025 on a 47 percent snap share in 2025, but missed most of training camp on the PUP list with a knee injury. The Cardinals already utilize a heavy rotation system along their defensive line under defensive coordinator Nick Rallis, which means that they can easily manage Sweat's snaps as he gets into game shape.

That is less than ideal with the Cardinals facing off against Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater in Week 1.

Lukas Van Ness, LB, Green Bay Packers

Naturally, IDP managers looking for a player to fill the void left behind during Micah Parsons' ACL recovery will gravitate toward edge rusher Lukas Van Ness. The 2023 first-round pick has struggled in a limited role in his first three seasons, totaling just 61 pressures and 8.5 sacks on 580 career pass rush snaps.

Van Ness has reportedly had a strong summer and will be counted on early in the season to try and replicate some of the pass rush void without Parsons. Unfortunately, Van Ness has never shown the ability to consistently pressure the quarterback and will have a difficult matchup against the Vikings in Week 1. Left tackle Christian Darrisaw has reportedly looked as good as he did before his 2024 knee injury, which could make for a long day for Van Ness.