Injuries are the great unseen variable of an NFL betting season -- the thing no power ranking prices in until it is too late. So ahead of 2026 we tried to price it in early.
RotoWire's Injury Risk Index blends five independently sourced factors into a single 0-100 score for all 32 teams, projecting which rosters are most likely to spend the season in the training room.
One important caveat up front: this is a relative risk lean, not a prophecy. Injury luck is famously close to random from one year to the next, so the Index measures exposure -- the stuff that stacks the deck -- rather than fate.
That distinction is the whole point, and it is why last year's most-injured team is not automatically this year's.
Which NFL team has the most injuries in 2026?
The 
San Francisco 49ers top the 2026 Injury Risk Index at 76.6 -- comfortably ahead of the 
Detroit Lions (62.3), 
New York Giants (62.0), 
Houston Texans (60.9) and 
Carolina Panthers (60.8).
At the other end, the 
Denver Broncos (18.0) and 
Kansas City Chiefs (18.0) project as the league's safest bets to stay healthy. The Index is built from a team's three-year Adjusted Games Lost trend, how banged-up it already is entering camp, its roster age, its 2026 travel-and-rest schedule, and whether it plays home games on turf.
RotoWire's Ian Hartitz has each NFL's average age here.
The 2026 NFL Injury Risk Index: all 32 teams ranked
Higher score means higher projected injury risk. Scores are computed from the underlying factors -- never reverse-engineered to fit a ranking. The interactive version, with sortable factors and a full methodology tab, is embedded above.
# | Team | Risk Index | 3-Yr AGL | Avg Age | Primary risk driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 49ers | 76.6 | 97 | 26.67 | players already hurt entering camp |
2 | Lions | 62.3 | 98 | 25.93 | chronic injury history (3-yr AGL) |
3 | Giants | 62.0 | 83 | 26.54 | players already hurt entering camp |
4 | Texans | 60.9 | 116 | 26.18 | chronic injury history (3-yr AGL) |
5 | Panthers | 60.8 | 109 | 25.79 | chronic injury history (3-yr AGL) |
6 | Cardinals | 59.9 | 128 | 26.25 | chronic injury history (3-yr AGL) |
7 | Patriots | 49.0 | 85 | 26.12 | chronic injury history (3-yr AGL) |
8 | Falcons | 48.2 | 61 | 26.35 | players already hurt entering camp |
9 | Colts | 48.0 | 79 | 26.00 | chronic injury history (3-yr AGL) |
10 | Cowboys | 46.5 | 70 | 26.05 | a brutal 2026 travel/rest slate |
11 | Saints | 45.8 | 79 | 25.79 | players already hurt entering camp |
12 | Bengals | 45.2 | 58 | 26.53 | an aging roster |
13 | Jets | 42.9 | 92 | 25.78 | chronic injury history (3-yr AGL) |
14 | Browns | 39.5 | 105 | 25.62 | chronic injury history (3-yr AGL) |
15 | Seahawks | 38.8 | 61 | 26.08 | players already hurt entering camp |
16 | Rams | 36.4 | 60 | 26.35 | an aging roster |
17 | Commanders | 34.2 | 75 | 26.79 | an aging roster |
18 | Dolphins | 33.5 | 101 | 25.18 | chronic injury history (3-yr AGL) |
19 | Chargers | 33.1 | 82 | 25.89 | chronic injury history (3-yr AGL) |
20 | Vikings | 32.5 | 62 | 25.78 | a turf home field |
21 | Ravens | 32.2 | 55 | 26.10 | a brutal 2026 travel/rest slate |
22 | Packers | 28.6 | 66 | 25.64 | players already hurt entering camp |
23 | Bills | 27.9 | 62 | 25.97 | players already hurt entering camp |
24 | Bears | 27.5 | 55 | 26.25 | players already hurt entering camp |
25 | Buccaneers | 26.5 | 75 | 26.25 | an aging roster |
26 | Steelers | 24.9 | 64 | 26.22 | an aging roster |
27 | Jaguars | 24.5 | 54 | 25.91 | a brutal 2026 travel/rest slate |
28 | Raiders | 21.4 | 66 | 25.73 | players already hurt entering camp |
29 | Titans | 20.8 | 69 | 25.57 | a turf home field |
30 | Eagles | 20.1 | 51 | 26.18 | an aging roster |
31 | Chiefs | 18.0 | 53 | 25.40 | players already hurt entering camp |
32 | Broncos | 18.0 | 54 | 26.40 | an aging roster |
Related: See the most hated NFL team in every state for 2026.
49ers injuries: why San Francisco is the NFL's biggest injury risk
San Francisco is a perfect storm. The 49ers carry the NFL's second-oldest roster (26.67 years) built around an offense that is the oldest unit in football. They already have a stack of players hurt entering camp, and their three-year Adjusted Games Lost history is among the worst in the league.
Then there is the travel: San Francisco is one of only two teams making two international trips in 2026, including a season-opening haul to Melbourne and a later game in Mexico City. Age, wear, current health and a brutal schedule all point the same direction.
Lions injuries: Detroit's chronic problem returns
Detroit ranks second despite fielding one of the younger rosters in the league -- proof the model is not simply an age list. The Lions' issue is a genuinely rough recent Adjusted Games Lost trend, a turf home field, and a meaningful current-injury load. Youth helps them recover, but the pattern of lost starter-games is hard to ignore.
Giants and Cowboys injuries: the NFC East enters 2026 banged up
The New York Giants land third almost entirely on current health -- they carry one of the heaviest present-day injury loads in the league -- compounded by an older roster and a turf field. Division-rival Dallas is not far behind at 10th, dragged up by age, turf and a taxing schedule that includes an international trip to Rio. It is a rough health outlook for the NFC East's veteran core.
Texans injuries: Houston's recurring red flag
Houston sits fourth on the strength of one of the worst three-year Adjusted Games Lost histories in the NFL and a turf home field. The Texans have talent, but they have also repeatedly lost that talent to the injury report, and the model sees the pattern continuing.
Panthers and Cardinals injuries: chronic history, but a regression story
This is where the Index earns its keep. Arizona posted a near-all-time-record injury season in 2025, yet the Cardinals land sixth, not first -- the three-year window regresses that outlier back toward reality. Carolina ranks fifth on a long injury history and a turf field, but the Panthers are actually one of the youngest teams in the league for 2026, which pulls their projection down from where a raw look-back would put it. Chronic history matters; a single scary season does not define the forecast.
The healthiest projected rosters: Broncos, Chiefs and Eagles
At the safe end of the board, Denver and Kansas City tie as the lowest-risk teams in the league (18.0), with Philadelphia (20.1), Tennessee (20.8) and Las Vegas (21.4) close behind. The common thread: clean recent Adjusted Games Lost histories, grass home fields, light current-injury loads and, in most cases, a manageable travel schedule.
Oldest NFL rosters and the injury connection
Age is one of the few injury signals with real predictive value: older players get hurt more often and recover more slowly. Entering 2026 the Washington Commanders (26.79) field the oldest roster in football, followed by the 49ers (26.67), Giants (26.54) and Bengals (26.53).
The youngest -- and, all else equal, the most injury-resilient -- are the Miami Dolphins (25.18) and Kansas City Chiefs (25.40). Age is weighted at 18% of the Index using RotoWire's own roster-age data.
Methodology and data sources
The Injury Risk Index blends five factors, each normalized on a 0-100 scale across all 32 teams and then weighted:
- Adjusted Games Lost, 3-year trend (32%) -- chronic injury tendency and regression signal. Source: FTN Fantasy / Aaron Schatz, 2023–2025.
- Current health entering 2026 (27%) -- severity-weighted count of players already hurt, with ACL/Achilles and IR/PUP weighted heaviest. Source: RotoWire injury report, July 2026.
- Roster age (18%) -- overall average roster age entering 2026. Source: RotoWire (Ian Hartitz).
- Schedule load (14%) -- 2026 international trips and extreme bye placement. Source: official 2026 NFL schedule.
- Playing surface (9%) -- turf vs. grass home field, 2026-adjusted (Buffalo moves to grass). Source: Pro Football & Sports Network.
Honest limits. Three factors we wanted -- offensive-line continuity, short-week (Thursday) counts, and player workload including defensive iron-man snaps -- are deferred to an in-season refresh because they cannot be cleanly sourced before roster cutdowns without guesswork. We flag what we cannot verify rather than estimate it. Scores are computed directly from the inputs above and are not adjusted to produce a desired order.
Frequently asked questions
Which NFL team has the most injuries in 2026?
San Francisco projects as the most injury-prone team in the league in RotoWire's Injury Risk Index, followed by Detroit, the New York Giants, Houston and Carolina.
Which NFL team has the fewest injuries?
Denver and Kansas City tie as the lowest-risk rosters for 2026, with Philadelphia, Tennessee and Las Vegas rounding out the healthiest projected teams.
Does playing on turf cause more injuries than grass?
Research consistently links artificial turf to higher non-contact lower-limb injury rates -- on the order of 28% more -- which is why home surface is one of the five factors in the Index, weighted at 9%.
Are older NFL teams more injury-prone?
Generally yes. Age is one of the more reliable injury signals: older players miss more time and heal more slowly. It accounts for 18% of the Index.
Can you actually predict NFL injuries?
Not precisely -- injury luck is largely random year to year. The Index does not claim to predict specific injuries; it measures which rosters carry the most structural risk, which is a very different (and more defensible) thing.
Stay ahead of the injury report
Injury risk is a preseason projection -- the season is where it plays out. Track it in real time with RotoWire's NFL injury news and our NFL depth charts for all 32 teams, updated daily.
