NFC North Preview: 2026 Fantasy Impact of Coaching & Personnel Changes

This article will analyze offseason coaching and personnel changes in the NFC North to see what the new additions reveal about each team's offensive scheme for 2026. Only the Lions hired a new playcaller, but the Bears, Packers and Vikings all made offseason personnel moves that demand adaptation from their coaching staffs.

Fantasy excitement abounds, for various reasons, so naturally it's my job to throw water on some of that (unless Luther Burden is involved).

If you're looking for similar breakdowns on other divisions, they can be found below, with more to come soon.

NFC East Preview: 2026 Fantasy Impact of Coaching & Personnel Changes

AFC South Preview: 2026 Fantasy Impact of Coaching & Personnel Changes

AFC West Preview: 2026 Fantasy Impact of Coaching & Personnel Changes

AFC East Preview: 2026 Fantasy Impact of Coaching & Personnel Changes

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AFC North Preview: 2026 Fantasy Impact of Coaching & Personnel Changes

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Chicago Bears

• Key Coaching Changes: OC Press Taylor
• Key Losses: WR DJ Moore, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, TE Durham Smythe
• Key Additions: WR Zavion Thomas (R3), WR Kalif Raymond, TE Sam Roush (R3)

After losing Declan Doyle to Baltimore, the Bears promoted Press Taylor from pass game coordinator to offensive coordinator. Taylor doesn't have the best reputation in the NFL these days, on account of his three-year tenure as Jacksonville's OC under Doug Pederson.

The Bears then traded DJ Moore to Buffalo, but it was otherwise a quiet offseason, with hopes for 2026 banking on improvement from Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden and Colston Loveland. For fantasy purposes, the discussion largely seems to center on the expected target distribution between Odunze/Burden/Loveland. For non-fantasy purposes, you'll hear a lot about Williams and Ben Johnson this offseason.

The Lions finished Top 5 in both points and yards in each of Johnson's three seasons as offensive coordinator. Last year's Bears ranked a bit lower, at No. 6 for yardage and No. 9 for scoring. On a per-drive basis, Chicago finished eighth in yardage, 10th in points and second in turnover rate (a mere 6.0% of drives). Caleb Williams completed less than 60 percent of his passes, but he finished fifth in yards per completion (11.9), fourth in sack rate (4.1%) and sixth in scramble yards (366) while leading the league with six fourth-quarter comebacks.

The short version: Chicago's offense can be elite if Williams improves his accuracy and the receivers drop fewer passes.

Quick Hits - What to Expect from the Bears Offense

1. Scheme continuity.
2. Candidate to lead NFL in 12 personnel usage.
   1. Loveland + Kmet.
   2. Strong target rates for at least 2/3 of Loveland, Burden and Odunze.
3. Run-heavy near the goal line.
4. WR3 competition.
   1. Zavion Thomas vs. Jahdae Walker vs. Kalif Raymond.

Offseason Personnel Moves

The Bears traded DJ Moore to Buffalo before replacing two veteran backups (WR Olamide Zaccheaus, TE Durham Smythe) with draft picks (WR Zavion Thomas, TE Sam Roush).  Moore  and C Drew Dalman (retirement) are the only departed starters.

The Bears also traded for Garrett Bradbury, to replace Dalman, and while that's likely to be a downgrade, the O-line remains a strength overall, grading out at No. 4 in RotoWire's offensive line rankings.

As for the opening left by Moore's departure, the Bears seemingly intend for Thomas and Jahdae Walker to compete with Kalif Raymond, a veteran signing who previously worked with Ben Johnson in Detroit.

The Bears aren't carrying a fullback, nor did the Lions in Johnson's final year. Instead, the Bears have seven TEs on their camp roster.

Personnel Groupings

Johnson's Detroit tenure doesn't reveal a ton, but I still think it's worth looking at. In 2022, he inherited a team with FB Jason Cabinda, who played 104 snaps in an offense that used 21 personnel (7.1%) nearly as often as 12 personnel (11.3%).

By Johnson's final year, 2024, the Lions no longer carried a fullback and were using 12 personnel on 32.3% of snaps, the third-highest rate in the league (it obviously helped that the team was very strong in 2024 and spent much of the year sitting on leads). But even if we just look at the first quarter of games, the 2024 Lions ranked seventh in 12 personnel usage (35.5%).

Turning our attention to Chicago's depth chart, you'll notice that the No. 2 TE is an experienced starter (Cole Kmet), while the No. 3 WR (Raymond/Walker/Thomas) is a possible ink. Assumptions about frequent usage of 12 personnel are very likely to prove correct, especially if Loveland and Kmet stay healthy.

Last year, the Bears used 12 personnel on 32.5 percent of snaps, the seventh-highest rate in the league. They used 13 personnel on 8.5 percent of snaps, the fifth-highest rate (only the Rams were above 13.2%).

The frequent multi-TE formations meant Chicago ranked much lower in use of 11 personnel (51.5%, 23rd) despite never using a fullback. It's also worth noting that the Bears spent more time trailing than a typical playoff team, relying on late-game comebacks rather than start-to-finish domination. An improved team in 2026 could be one that uses multi-TE formations even more often, closing out wins with the run rather than frantically trying to erase deficits in the fourth quarter.

Of course, the Chicago defense would need to cooperate, at least to some extent. It's an average unit on paper, at best, coming off a 2025 in which takeaways were frequent but point/yardage prevention was a weakness.

Pace and Pass Rate

Johnson's teams in Detroit were unextraordinary in terms of neutral pace, play-clock usage and PROE, typically ranking somewhere in the middle of the league. They annually ranked near the bottom in no-huddle usage, with Johnson reserving the tactic for situations where it was absolutely necessary (same thing in Chicago last year).

Last year's Bears nonetheless had strong ranks in a lot of the pace metrics that fantasy players look at, including No. 5 in seconds per play (28.6) and No. 2 in plays per game (64.9). A deeper dive is not quite as promising, considering play-clock usage was right around average in neutral situations.

A low completion rate on offense meant more clock stoppages, and the turnover-dependent defense lent to shootout game scripts that boosted volume.

That's not to say Johnson will operate at a slow pace like the Shanahan Jr. offenses, but there is risk of over-estimating pace and play volume if we simply take a quick glance at the 2025 Bears, a team that ranked 22nd in PROE (-4.5%) and 16th in average play clock remaining at the snap (9.0 seconds).

Continued improvement from Williams could push that PROE upwards, perhaps even by a large margin, but that would also mean a higher completion rate that negates some of the clock-saving math from last year. There's also never been any hint of Johnson viewing no-huddle as anything other than a desperation tactic, so pace expectations for the 2026 Bears shouldn't be too far above league-average.

Playcaller Trends (Play-action, Pre-Snap Motion & More)

The 2025 Bears were second in play-action rate (19.1%) and fifth in use of motion at the snap (43.4%). From 2022-24, the Lions were fourth in play-action rate (16.3%) and seventh in motion at the snap (33.3%).

That's what fantasy players like to hear, but they may be less excited by Chicago's 30th-ranked PROE (-14.7%) inside the 10-yard line. 

That number may rise as Williams improves, but David Montgomery can attest that the run-heavy trend in scoring territory was nothing new for a Ben Johnson offense.

In Johnson's three seasons in Detroit, his teams finished 26th, 29th and 21st in PROE inside the 10-yard line. During that time, they ranked sixth in rushing success rate (51.2%) inside the 10-yard line, i.e., it worked pretty well. The 2025 Bears were similar, finishing seventh (52.4%) in rushing success rate inside the 10.

Caleb Williams failed on his only QB sneak attempt at the goal line, and he went 4-for-7 overall — one fewer sneak attempt than Jared Goff had in his three seasons under Johnson. It's part of the playbook, but Chicago isn't likely to be one of the teams that defaults to QB sneaks in yard-to-go situations — we're more likely to see Swift/Monangai carries or Williams dropbacks.

Optimism for this offense is still well-founded, but the TD split will probably lean more toward the running backs than one would expect when looking at last year's stats or the talent distribution on the roster.

Key Trends to Monitor Early in the Season (Bears)

1. Backfield split between D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai.
2. Target & route shares for Burden/Odunze/Loveland.
3. Alignment & motion stats for WRs Luther Burden & Rome Odunze.
4. Split of 12 vs. 11 personnel on early downs.
5. Short-yardage & goal-line plan.
   1. QB sneak vs. RB rush vs. QB dropback

Detroit Lions

• Key Coaching Changes: OC Drew Petzing
• Key Losses: RB David Montgomery, WR Kalif Raymond
• Key Additions: RB Isiah Pacheco, WR Greg Dortch, TE Tyler Conklin

Dan Campbell took over playcalling in the middle of last season and then moved on from OC John Morton after the year. Campbell said new coordinator Drew Petzing will call the plays, but Campbell should remain heavily involved with the offense.

The Lions had a quiet offseason otherwise, with much of the fantasy buzz around them focusing on a friendly schedule that grades out as the NFL's two or three easiest by most measures. They also still have the same fantasy-friendly setup, with volume likely to be even more condensed between the superstars after RB David Montgomery was traded. Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta figure to account for the vast majority of yards and TDs in a dome-based offense with a favorable schedule.

Quick Hits - What to Expect from the Lions Offense

1. Multi-TE formations on early downs.
   1. 12 and 13 both in play.
   2. Improvement from WR Isaac TeSlaa might change that some...
2. High play-action rate.
3. Huge usage shares for the stars.
   1. Gibbs/ARSB/LaPorta/Williams

Offseason Personnel Moves

The Lions traded RB David Montgomery and spent a first-round pick on OT Blake Miller (17th overall) to replace Taylor Decker. They also signed C Cade Mays as a replacement for Graham Glasgow, who was released in March. (Detroit is No. 9 in RW's O-line ranks).

The other starters from last year are still around, headlined by superstars Jahmyr Gibbs, Penei Sewell and Amon-Ra St. Brown. They're supported by Pro Bowl talents Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta, both more than capable of taking on large target shares when needed.

Behind Gibbs in the backfield, the Lions have Isiah Pacheco on a one-year contract with $1.8 million guaranteed. He'll compete with Sione Vaki and UDFAs this summer; it's the best situation Pacheco could've hoped for after his poor showings in Kansas City the past two years. That said, the Lions would be wise to add another veteran to at least compete with Pacheco/Vaki.

WR/RS Kalif Raymond left for the division rival Bears. The Lions then added WR Greg Dortch and TE Tyler Conklin (knee) for skill-position depth. 

Given those minimal additions and lack of a fullback on the roster, Detroit presumably has big-ish plans for No. 3 WR Isaac TeSlaa and/or No. 2 TE Brock Wright. Someone has to be the fifth guy absorbing snaps next to Gibbs/ARSB/Williams/LaPorta.

Note: the Lions are one of four teams carrying eight TEs on their roster at the start of camp. (The Packers are another.)

Personnel Groupings

Last year, the Lions were right around league-average in use of 11, 12 and 13 personnel. They used a lot of six-OL packages, but that was largely after Sam LaPorta's season-ending injury.

What we see from the first 10 weeks, with LaPorta healthy, echoes the 2024 numbers under Ben Johnson. With John Morton (and Campbell) calling shots, the Lions used 12 personnel on 32.9 percent of snaps (7th) in Weeks 1-10, averaging 6.3 yards on those plays (4th).

Morton is gone now, replaced by Petzing, whose Arizona offenses (2023-25) ranked first in usage of 13 personnel (12.1%) and sixth in usage of 12 personnel (25.9%) over the three-year stretch. The larger picture of Petzing's Arizona tenure doesn't offer much cause for optimism among Lions fans, but he did find a surprising amount of success with the multi-TE looks, averaging 5.7 YPP (6th) from 12 personnel and 6.1 YPP (2nd) from 13 personnel over the three-year stretch.

Everything here points to the Lions using a lot of 12 personnel, with Brock Wright joining Sam LaPorta at tight end. As for 13 personnel, that's less certain, as the Lions don't have great TE depth but do have two standout WRs. They'll definitely have 13 personnel as part of the offense, but we might not see it as more than a short-yardage tactic or occasional trick (unless St. Brown or Williams misses time).

Pace and Pass Rate

Petzing's Cardinals and Campbell's Lions ranked 1-2 in pass attempts per game from Week 10 onward last year. Game script played a huge role in both cases (read: terrible defenses), but the Lions remained close to league-average in PROE, while Arizona posted a league-high +5.9% PROE over that same stretch.

In 2024, with Kyler Murray actually healthy, the Cardinals were 14th in PROE (-1.8%) despite having a strong rushing game (5.3 YPC, albeit boosted by Murray's Scrambling). 

In 2023, Petzing's first season, the Cardinals were all the way down at 30th in PROE (-8.9%). Some of the shift over time may have been philosophical on Petzing's part, but it was also related to Arizona's deficiencies on defense and shifting personnel availability on offense. Last year, the lack of backfield talent was also a big factor, after each of Arizona's top three RBs landed on IR.

It's fair to say both Petzing and Campbell have exhibited pass-first tendencies. The extent to which that's true is up for debate, but it's at least mildly promising for anyone invested in Detroit's pass-game weapons (as many of your favorite RotoWire writers are).

In terms of neutral-situation pace, the Cardinals and Lions lingered not too far from league-average in recent years, with no convincing trend relative to the rest of the league. Even last year's Cardinals were just 13th in neutral-situation pace (28.7 seconds).

If you're looking for something more promising in that regard, consider that the Lions were second in neutral-situation pace (26.7 seconds) after Campbell took over playcalling in Week 10. 

Still, I think it's more of a wait-and-see situation than one fit for assumptions, considering the pass-happy offenses we saw last year (in both Arizona and Detroit) coincided with losing streaks for those teams. It'll be much more instructive to see how Campbell and Petzing operate this fall, from a position of strength against a soft schedule.

That's not to say optimism about the passing game is misplaced. After all, the pace and pass-rate outlook are still above average, and Montgomery's departure should move volume away from the RB2 role.

Playcaller Trends (Play-action, Pre-Snap Motion & More)

The Lions and Cardinals both were top five in play-action rate over the past three seasons. With Campbell and Petzing now working together, we can safely expect a lot of play-action passes from 12 personnel on early downs.

The rest of the picture, as discussed above, is somewhat more complicated, including stuff like use of motion at the snap. Over the past three years, Detroit ranked sixth in motion at the snap (36.7%), while the Cardinals (20.7%) were dead last. This isn't necessarily the most important fantasy indicator, but it can be key for an individual player when they're the guy who is going in motion often.

Consider Amon-Ra St. Brown, who drew 51 targets on 137 motion routes (37.2% TPRR) last year, producing 431 yards and six TDs on those plays.

Jameson Williams, on the other hand, got just 11 targets on 53 motion routes (21.1% TPRR) last season, producing 113 yards and one TD. 

Part of what we're seeing here is just St. Brown being better, but we also see the extent to which he's featured and prioritized whenever healthy. One of my biggest questions with this offense, annually, is what Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams might do if ARSB were ever to miss significant time. There's also some chance Petzing's influence could shift some target share away from ARSB and toward other players, but we've been saying the same thing for a few years now, including last offseason for the same reason (new playcaller).

Key Trends to Monitor Early in the Season (Lions)

1. 11 personnel vs. 12 personnel.
   1. WR3 vs. TE2.
2. PROE and neutral pace.
   1. Expectations high. Reality uncertain.
   2. Easy schedule could reduce pass volume even if PROE is high.
3. Winner of RB2 job behind Gibbs.
   1. Standalone value unlikely / handcuff value immense.
4. Amon-Ra St. Brown's pre-snap motion.
   1. 37.2% TPRR when in motion past two seasons, with six TDs.

Green Bay Packers

• Key Coaching Changes: DC Jonathan Gannon
• Key Losses: WR Romeo Doubs, WR Dontayvion Wicks
• Key Additions: None on offense.

The Packers brought in former Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon as their new defensive coordinator after Jeff Hafley took the head job in Miami.

The other big offseason change matters a lot more for fantasy: the Packers traded Dontayvion Wicks to Philadelphia and let Romeo Doubs leave for New England. In fantasy world, much of the discussion about Green Bay's offense centers on breakout potential for the WRs who remain: Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden.

Quick Hits - What to Expect from the Packers Offense

1. 12 personnel on early downs.
   1. Watson favorite for WR snaps. Reed vs. Golden?
2. Clear Top 3 at WR.
   1. Shaky depth at WR. Also at RB and TE.
3. Higher PROErelative to 2023-24.
   1. (If the OL holds up in pass protection).
4. Slow-paced, with below-average play volume.
   1. Unless the pass-heavy hopes come to pass?

Offseason Personnel Moves

Depth at the skill positions has been a strength for most of Matt LaFleur's tenure. That's probably gone, unless a bunch of no-names step up big. It isn't just the WRs that look shaky after Wicks and Doubs left. 

The backfield is led by a guy with legal issues and lacks a clear No. 2 RB. Even the tight ends don't look great behind Tucker Kraft, as Luke Musgrave hasn't developed into anything more than an acceptable backup. And Kraft is coming back from an ACL tear, so he may not be his full explosive self early on.

On the other hand... this all sets up nicely for someone like Christian Watson — or Jayden Reed, or Matthew Golden, or a healthy Kraft, or even Jacobs — if there's a lack of depth and the offense keeps chugging along competently due to solid QB play and clever playcalling. The offensive line probably won't help, ranking 23rd in RotoWire's O-Line ranks and lower in many other rankings, but that's been the case for a few years and the Packers have mostly remained respectable on offense anyway.

They don't carry a fullback, so any skill-position snaps that aren't for the RBs and WRs will go to TEs or a sixth lineman. Unfortunately for Green Bay fans, the team didn't do anything to improve depth.

Personnel Groupings

The Packers used 12 personnel at the fifth-highest rate (33.7%) last year, despite losing their star tight end to an ACL tear before mid-season. Even after Kraft's injury, the Packers used 12 personnel on 29.8% of snaps (9th), adding more six-OL packages (11.9%) rather than shifting to far more three-wide looks.

The 2024 team went three-wide more often, but LaFleur has typically been similar to the other Shanahan tree coaches in preferring two-wide formations on early downs. We've already covered how the personnel won't tell us much, with depth being a question mark across the board. In all likelihood, injuries will play a big role as well.

Pace and Pass Rate

LaFleur's offenses annually rank near the bottom of the league in a variety of pace snaps and play volume. There is some chance that changes this year, at least a little bit, if only because doubts about the backfield and defense could encourage more passing on early downs (which slightly improves pace due to incompletions).

Still, it's best to project a LaFleur offense as one of the lowest-volume in the league. Here are the ranks for play volume, starting with 2025 and moving backward to 2019: (23rd, 25th, 23rd, 19th, 16th, 28th, 13th).

In terms of pass rate, there's more cause for optimism, at least if we focus on LaFleur's pre-2024 track record.

The past two years, Green Bay ranked 30th (2024) and 26th (2025) in PROE, going into a run-heavy shell amidst QB and O-line injuries.

From 2019 through 2023, the Packers had the 10th-highest PROE (-0.8%), including a respectable No. 16 rank during Love's 2023 rookie campaign. 

Unsurprisingly, LaFleur hasn't thrown the ball as much since losing Aaron Rodgers. Still, the run-heavy approach in 2024 and 2025 seemed like a response to deficiencies along the O-line and receiving corps more than anything else. (Love's injury in 2024 was also a big factor.)

It's not clear the Packers have improved their blocking, but the WR reshuffle could prove addition by subtraction if Watson, Reed and Golden thrive in their expanded roles. The defense will also play a role here, and expectations aren't great after last year's unit proved mediocre without Micah Parsons (who is now coming back from an ACL tear). 

One line of thinking is that the Packers want to pass more. Another line of thinking is that they'll be forced to pass more. The third line of thinking? It'll look more like the past couple of years from a bird's eye view, only with target shares consolidated in the passing game. That might actually work OK for fantasy, especially for those invested in RB Josh Jacobs or an efficiency-dependent wideout like Christian Watson.

Playcaller Trends (Play-action, Pre-Snap Motion & More)

LaFleur's play-action rates are slightly above league-average, both looking at 2025 alone and the entirety of his Green Bay tenure (2019-25). He's never used play-fakes quite as often as other Shanahan Jr. coaches, but it's a big part of the offense all the same.

For motion at the snap, his teams have consistently been above league-average, including top-five ranks in 2023 and 2024, before dropping to 11th (36.5%) in 2025. 

As Packers fans can tell you, Jayden Reed has often been the beneficiary. He led the offense in motion snaps in both 2023 and 2024, piling up 45 catches and 17 carries on 369 snaps over that stretch — numbers that would prorate to 100+ catches and 40+ carries over a full workload.

If he can keep up the first-rate production on motion snaps while also picking up more overall playing time (especially in two-wide sets), it might be Reed rather than Watson who proves the breakout star in Green Bay this year. Of course, Watson offers other advantages, namely superior athleticism and a more secure role in 12 personnel.

Key Trends to Monitor Early in the Season (Packers)

1. RB2 behind Josh Jacobs.
   1. MarShawn Lloyd? Chris Brooks? Damien Martinez
   2. Jacobs aging/declining + legal issues.
2. Jayden Reed vs. Matthew Golden in 12 personnel.
   1. Could even rotate the snaps with Watson?
3. Reed's usage in motion.
4. Split of 12 vs. 11 vs. 13 personnel on early downs.

Minnesota Vikings

• Key Coaching Changes: None
• Key Losses: WR Jalen Nailor
• Key Additions: QB Kyler Murray, WR Jauan Jennings, FB Max Bredeson (R5)

Kyler Murray is the headline here, even with coach Kevin O'Connell insisting that Murray will need to compete with J.J. McCarthy. I'm not calling O'Connell a liar, but Murray would have to look really hopeless this summer to actually lose the job battle.

Quick Hits - What to Expect from the Vikings Offense

1. Mix of 11, 12 and 21 personnel on early downs.
   1. Flexibility between WR3 vs. TE2 vs. FB as fifth player.
   2. Could depend on health/injuries.
2. Play-action passes on early downs.
3. Incorporating Murray's mobility?
   1. Rollouts more likely than designed runs.
   2. Sneaks uncertain.

Offseason Personnel Moves

The Vikings return all of last year's starters, with the biggest non-QB change being at the No. 3 WR spot, where Jauan Jennings replaces Jalen Nailor. While Jennings had some decent production in San Francisco, there's no real target-rate upside while sharing the field with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.

Of secondary interest, the Vikings spent a fifth-round pick on FB Max Bredeson to replace the recently retired C.J. Ham.

Personnel Groupings

One might look at the JJ-Addison-Jennings combo and assume a lot of three-wide formations.

On the other hand, the Vikings acted quickly to give O'Connell his replacement at fullback. They also still have Josh Oliver, one of the highest-paid No. 2 TEs in the league, and highly regarded for his blocking.

Basically, the Vikings should have rock-solid options for 11 personnel, 12 personnel, 21 personnel and 22 personnel. Or at least they will until injuries strike.

Looking at O'Connell's four-season track record as head coach, the Vikings rank No. 9 in usage of 11 personnel (65%), No. 20 in 12 personnel (19.7%) and No. 6 in 21 personnel (9.2%). O'Connell rarely uses other groupings, and he's put a sixth lineman on the field just 12 times over four seasons (0.3%).

Kevin O'Connell's Personnel Groupings in Minnesota

Pace and Pass Rate

The Vikings rank fourth in PROE (+0.5%) over the past four years, and they were No. 3 from 2022-24, before QB incompetence forced a drop to the middle of the pack last year.

The Vikings were similarly fantasy-friendly from a pace standpoint, ranking fourth in neutral-situation pace from 2022 through 2024.

Even last year, the Vikings were around average in pace and pass rate while trying to redesign an offense around QB limitations.

We've already seen with both Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold that O'Connell is willing to deploy a pass-first offense if his QB play is merely solid. It doesn't need to be elite; just good enough to take advantage of the excellent circumstances with strong surrounding talent and a good playcaller.

Playcaller Trends (Play-action, Pre-Snap Motion & More)

O'Connell has used play-action at the highest rate in the league (18.0% of plays) since taking over the Vikings in 2022. From this standpoint, Murray should fit in nicely, having produced 0.15 EPA/dropback and 8.7 YPA on play-action attempts in his career (league-average = 0.11 EPA/DB, 8.4 YPA).

In terms of motion at the snap, O'Connell has been far less noteworthy, lingering around league-average each year.

The key trend to note is O'Connell's preference for the passing game, especially near the goal line. Inside of the 10-yard line, his +9.1% PROE is tops in the league over the past four years, ahead of even Kansas City's +6.5%. And that didn't change last year; the Vikings easily led the league at +16.5% despite having minimal confidence in their QBs.

This probably doesn't come as any surprise if you've tracked the touchdowns in Minnesota in recent years. Prior to McCarthy, each O'Connell team had topped 30 TD passes and 4,000 yards.

Murray, of course, has never flirted with those kinds of passing numbers, instead adding value with his wheels and INT avoidance. While definitely an upgrade over McCarthy, the stylistic differences between Murray and previous O'Connell quarterbacks does create some fantasy risks within Minnesota's offense.

 If you want a more optimistic take, Murray's early-career numbers on throws past the first-down marker hint at some ability to push the ball downfield. Of course, he did that under Kliff Kingsbury, in an offense that's very different from what O'Connell runs in Minnesota.

Kyler in Arizona on Throws Past the Sticks (2019-25)

Key Trends to Monitor Early in the Season (Vikings)

1. Kyler Murray's aDOT and downfield passing.
2. Murray's scrambling and designed runs.
3. PROE and pass-run split.
4. Play-action frequency for Murray.
5. 11 vs. 12 vs. 21 personnel on early downs.