NFC South Preview: 2026 Fantasy Impact of Coaching & Personnel Changes

This article will analyze offseason coaching and personnel changes in the NFC South to see what the new additions reveal about each team's offensive scheme for 2026. Only the Falcons have a new head coach, but two teams have new playcallers, with Tommy Rees now conducting the orchestra in Atlanta while Zac Robinson takes his tempo from ATL to Tampa Bay.

If you're looking for similar breakdowns on the other seven divisions, they can be found below:

AFC North Preview: 2026 Fantasy Impact of Coaching & Personnel Changes

AFC South Preview: 2026 Fantasy Impact of Coaching & Personnel Changes

AFC East Preview: 2026 Fantasy Impact of Coaching & Personnel Changes

AFC West Preview: 2026 Fantasy Impact of Coaching & Personnel Changes

NFC North Preview: 2026 Fantasy Impact of Coaching & Personnel Changes

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NFC South Preview: 2026 Fantasy Impact of Coaching & Personnel Changes

NFC West Preview: 2026 Fantasy Impact of Coaching & Personnel Changes

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Atlanta Falcons

• Key Coaching Changes: HC Kevin Stefanski, OC Tommy Rees
• Key Losses: RB Tyler Allgeier, WR Darnell Mooney, WR David Sills
• Key Additions: QB Tua Tagovailoa, RB Brian Robinson, WR Jahan Dotson, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, WR Zachariah Branch (R3), TE Austin Hooper

New head coach Kevin Stefanski figures to play a huge role in building Atlanta's offense, but he's trusting former Notre Dame quarterback Tommy Rees to call plays, after the 34-year-old did so for Cleveland toward the end of last year. Rees spent the past two years with Stefanski in Cleveland, after working as a QBs coach / offensive coordinator at Notre Dame (2017-22) and Alabama (2023).

Stefanski and Rees will design their offense for a left-handed quarterback and superstar running back, hoping that the latter (Bijan Robinson) can help make up for whatever deficiencies Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix bring to the table. Tagovailoa and Penix are said to be competing for the starting job, but Penix hadn't been cleared for 11-on-11s or contact as of early July. It thus appears highly likely that Tagovailoa will start Week 1.

Quick Hits - What to Expect from the Falcons Offense

1. Multi-TE formations on early downs.
   1. Mostly 12 personnel, but also 13 personnel and 6OL packages.
   2. No fullback.
2. Touches concentrated between Big 3.
   1. Bijan + London + Pitts.
3. Low PROE / Pass Rate.
4. Open competition for WR roles behind Drake London.
   1. Zachariah Branch vs. Olamide Zaccheaus vs. Jahan Dotson.

Offseason Personnel Moves

The Falcons made a lot of moves, though mostly ones that didn't attract much fantasy attention besides the Tagovailoa signing.

Brian Robinson replaces Tyler Allgeier as the No. 2 RB — a likely downgrade — while Jahan Dotson, Olamide Zaccheaus and third-round rookie Zachariah Branch come in at wide receiver to compete for spots behind Drake London.

At tight end, the Falcons added Austin Hooper, giving them a third experienced option alongside Kyle Pitts and blocker Charlie Woerner. The team isn't carrying a fullback, so we'll presumably see 11, 12 and 13 personnel as the most frequent groupings.

Personnel Groupings

The Browns used a fullback during Nick Chubb's prime, but they didn't have one the past three years, instead deploying six-OL formations or multi-TE looks as their heavier sets. You can see below that the annual rates for 11 and 12 personnel jumped all over the place, and we even see that Stefanski was a bit ahead of the curve on stuff like six-OL formations and 13 personnel — two strategies that have become slightly more popular in recent years.

Kevin Stefanski's Personnel Usage in Cleveland

The Browns used a lot of 11 personnel in 2023 and 2024, but the larger picture shows a preference for heavier formations on early downs. Stefanski will abandon the running game and heavy formations if his team can't get it done on the ground, but he'll also eagerly go the other direction and try to repeatedly beat the snot out of his opponents with the rushing attack when it's working.

For a Falcons team with significant investments in TE depth and some of the worst WR depth in the league, Stefanski is highly likely to lean on 12 personnel on early downs in neutral-ish situations.

Pace, Play Volume and Pass Rate

The Browns finished Top 10 in rush attempts in each of Stefanski's first four seasons as head coach, before dropping to 28th and 26th in the final two years (5-12, 3-14).

In terms of Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE), the Browns ranked 18th over the past two years, compared to 26th over Stefanski's first four seasons (2020-23).

Stefanski let Joe Flacco chuck the ball around 40 times per game over two different stretches (late 2023, early 2025) when he didn't trust his rushing attack, but even then the Browns didn't finish Top 10 for PROE on the season, instead piling up volume on the basis of game script and a few pass-heavy weeks.

In Baker Mayfield's best season under Stefanski, back in 2020, the Browns were just 21st in PROE even with a reasonably efficient passing game, finishing third in rush attempts and 24th in pass attempts behind solid years from Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

From a pace and volume standpoint, Stefanski's teams have moved faster than average but then had some of that effect negated by the run-heaviness (fewer incompletions stopping the clock). The Browns often finished around the middle of the league for stuff like neutral-situation pace and play-clock usage. However, they ran 1,087 plays per season during his tenure, fourth-most in the league over the six-year span. But they were just 22nd in neutral-situation pace over the same stretch, in part because of the elevated run rate.

Overall, the play volume and pace outlook for these 2026 Falcons is average to slightly above, considering the offense will be run-first as long as Bijan Robinson stays healthy. (The offense also figures to feature plenty of passes to Bijan.)

The pass-rate and PROE outlook are far below average, but that was also the case last year (30th in PROE) and the year before (32nd) due to Atlanta's unique combination of elite RB play and poor QB play. 

Stefanski steps into a similar situation with Tagovailoa/Penix at QB and Bijan still in the backfield. Of course, the Falcons will need other aspects of the team to cooperate if they're to rank Top 10 in rushing volume without the help of a dual-threat QB. The defense, in particular, will need to do its part to keep the team out of shootouts and make sure Bijan Robinson is piling up carries instead of dump-off targets (fantasy managers may not care so much).

Playcaller Trends (Play-action, Pre-Snap Motion & More)

Stefanski used motion at the snap on just 19.0 percent of plays during his six-year Cleveland tenure, ranking ahead of only Cincinnati (18.3%) during that stretch. He has increased the rate relative to his earlier years, with the 2025 Browns ranking 26th (28.3%). In terms of overall usage of motion — not just including motion at the snap — Stefanski's teams have typically been right around league-average.

The play-action rates have also lingered around league-average, staying in the range of 13-16 percent.

If you're looking for a stronger Stefanski trend, he was often one of the most aggressive coaches on fourth down — a trait that could help Bijan Robinson and hurt K Nick Folk. The Browns went for it on fourth down 200 times over the past six years, tied for second-most in the league. Their go-for-it rate in short-yardage situations (68.3%) was fifth-highest, while their conversion rate was 11th-lowest. 

That should improve in Atlanta with a better O-line and a better RB, but Stefanski may otherwise face some of the same problems that plagued him in Cleveland, including shaky QB play and a questionable front office. Stefanski, of course, comes with baggage of his own, finishing out his Browns tenure with a pair of ugly seasons after winning a pair of Coach of the Year awards earlier on.

Concern about Atlanta's QB play and scheme have propelled Jahmyr Gibbs ahead of Bijan as the popular 1.01, but it won't be surprising if Bijan accounts for an even larger share of his team's overall offense.

Key Trends to Monitor Early in the Season (Falcons)

1. 12 personnel usage on early downs.
   1. Should rank among league leaders in 12 and/or 13 personnel
2. TE Kyle Pitts' route share.
   1. Risk of losing some play-action snaps in heavy formations?
3. WR2/3 roles.
4. Brian Robinson's role and any minor impact on Bijan Robinson.

Carolina Panthers

• Key Coaching Changes: None
• Key Losses: RB Rico Dowdle
• Key Additions: WR John Metchie

The Panthers had a quiet offseason from a fantasy standpoint, retaining last year's Dave Canales-led coaching staff while reserving their splashy free-agent additions for the defensive side — OLB Jaelan Phillips and ILB Devin Lloyd, both much-needed.

Carolina then drafted OT Monroe Freeling in the first round, seemingly adding to a strength at the time, only now it looks like standout tackles Taylor Moton (blood clot) and Ikem Ekwonu (knee) could miss large chunks of the season. Last year, Carolina's offensive line was arguably the strength of a mediocre team (albeit one that nearly won a playoff game). 

Quick Hits - What to Expect from the Panthers Offense

1. High rate of 11 personnel, mixing in some 12 personnel.
   1. 11 personnel doesn't necessarily mean a high pass rate.
2. Slow-paced offense, with below-average PROE.
   1. Pass volume may be really poor if defense and running game are OK.
   2. No team has run fewer plays since Dave Canales was hired.
3. Volume narrowly concentrated between 1-2 RBs + 1-2 WRs.
   1. Minimal TE receiving impact.
   2. If RB impact also minimal, WR target rates could be sky-high.

Offseason Personnel Moves

At the skill positions, Carolina is entirely counting on progress from young players, namely WR Tetairoa McMillan, WR Jalen Coker and RB Jonathon Brooks, the latter of whom may challenge Chuba Hubbard for the lead-back assignment.

The Panthers tried to improve WR depth by drafting Chris Brazzell (third round) and signing John Metchie, but Brazzell then suffered a season-ending LCL tear during the first week of camp.

At tight end, the Panthers surprisingly did next to nothing to improve one of the worst TE rooms in the league. They're apparently content with Tommy Tremble, Ja'Tavion Sanders and Mitchell Evans. And there's no fullback on the roster.

Barring a late addition, this team will need significant WR/TE snaps from guys who haven't proven much of anything and weren't early draft picks. 

Personnel Groupings

Canales shows a consistent trend of favoring 11 personnel, even though his No. 3 receivers have been the likes of Trey Palmer, Xavier Legette and David Moore. Then again, his tight ends haven't been so great either. In Tampa Bay, he had Competent Cade Otton but not much depth. In Carolina, it's been a mix of Tremble/Sanders/Evans mostly. At least Tremble blocks well.

Dave Canales Personnel Groupings as Playcaller

The Panthers got in on the 13 personnel trend last year, yet still finished seventh in use of 11 personnel (65.4% of snaps). 

The spread formations weren't always a passing tactic. Only three teams had a lower PROE (-7.4%) from 11 personnel, and only two called more run plays (208). The Panthers averaged 5.0 YPC (7th) on those runs, but they didn't throw the ball as effectively, and even the rushing stats don't look great (4.5 YPC, 27th) if we remove the massive Rico Dowdle games in Weeks 5-6.

In heavier formations, the Panthers flat-out struggled, averaging 3.6 YPC (24th) and -0.13 EPA per carry (23rd), with 6.5 YPA (26th) and -0.08 EPA per dropback (22nd).

They should've done more to improve their tight ends this offseason, but they seemed to instead be banking on improvement from their crew of young wideouts (Tetairoa McMillan, Jalen Coker, Chris Brazzell, Xavier Legette). With Brazzell already out for the year and Legette very likely a bust, there's room for someone like John Metchie or David Moore to sneak in with a surprisingly large snap share as the No. 3 receiver.

In fantasy terms, the more relevant part is that the Panthers have a WR-dependent passing game and only two dependable wide receivers. Both of those guys should be busy, especially McMillan, and it would also go a long way for Carolina's offense if Jonathon Brooks stepped up as a volume pass catcher in the shorter areas of the field.

Pace, Play Volume and Pass Rate

Canales doesn't necessarily have a strong lean philosophically here, but he seemed to design his offense to hide Bryce Young's shortcomings the past two years, leaning into the running game even in some trailing situations.

The Panthers have also been near the bottom of the league for most volume and pace stats, and we've seen them really slow things down as an underdog strategy, trying to shorten games to 8-9 possessions against superior opponents like Green Bay and Los Angeles (with some success).

Few teams have a worse pace/volume projection for 2026, but it is worth noting that things could change some if Canales gains more confidence in Young and the passing game.

Looking at the past two years, however, there's no real cause for fantasy optimism from a volume/pace standpoint.

No team ran fewer plays over the past two years, with Carolina ranking 31st in 2024 and 22nd in 2026, right around 1,000 total plays each season (league-average was 1,057 in 2024 and 1,041 in 2025).

Only three teams had a lower PROE (-6.8%) over the past two years. Only four averaged more seconds per snap in neutral situations. 

In terms of average play-clock usage, Carolina is responsible for two of the top 10 seasons over the past two years, snapping the ball with an average of 8.1 seconds left on the play clock (league-average is 9.3). And the numbers are just as strong if we only look at pre-halftime to avoid game script concerns.

If you're searching for optimism from a pace/volume/pass-rate standpoint, Canales did call plays for a 2023 Bucs offense that was right around league-average for most pace stats. However, that team finished 25th in play volume (1,047) and 24th in PROE (-5.3%), so we're talking about mild optimism at best.

More confidence in Young could lead to more passing on early downs, but we're still likely to see an above-average run rate and below-average pace of play, which means guys like McMillan, Brooks and Coker will need to corner huge target shares (very possible) in order for the raw volume to add up.

Playcaller Trends (Play-action, Pre-Snap Motion & More)

The big-picture trends for Canales in Carolina haven't been too much different from his one year in Tampa Bay.

His teams have been close to league-average in play-action use, with the Panthers ranking 15th (14.7%) over the past two years, nearly identical to league-average (14.6%).

And we can't point to pre-snap motion as part of the explanation for Carolina's slow pace. Since hiring Canales, the Panthers have used some form of motion on 56.7 percent of plays (24th), with motion at the snap on just 26.2 percent of plays (26th).

Canales has proven himself more than capable as a coordinator and playcaller, but not because he's leaning into the "cheat-code" trends that fantasy players sometimes look for with young coaches.

If you're looking for more pass-game optimism, consider that the Panthers were 10th in PROE inside the opponent's 10-yard line over the past two years. Canales' team in Tampa Bay was similar, ranking 6th in PROE inside the 10 despite being 24th in overall PROE. The relative pass-heaviness inside the 10-yard line could set up well for twins towers Coker and McMillan.

Key Trends to Monitor Early in the Season (Panthers)

1. RB Chuba Hubbard vs. Jonathon Brooks.
   1. Potential 1A/1B situation?
2. 11 personnel vs. 12 personnel on early downs.
3. WR3 battle and pass-game involvement of TEs and WR3.
4. Pass-run split near goal line.
5. Dave Canales' confidence in Bryce Young.

New Orleans Saints

• Key Coaching Changes: None
• Key Losses: TE Foster Moreau, QB/TE Taysom Hill
• Key Additions: RB Travis Etienne, WR Jordyn Tyson (R1), TE Noah Fant, TE Oscar Delp (R3), WR Bryce Lance (R4), WR Barion Brown (R6), G David Edwards

Kellen Moore gets a talent infusion at the skill positions for his second year as head coach. The Saints signed RB Travis Etienne to a four-year, $48 million contract before drafting WR Jordyn Tyson at No. 8 overall. With WR Chris Olave and TE Juwan Johnson returning, QB Tyler Shough seemingly has a nice group of weapons.

The defense is less promising, and Shough himself raises questions, in part because his solid numbers late last season mostly came against cellar-dwelling opponents. The Saints should know what they have in Shough soon enough, considering they also upgraded the O-line by signing G David Edwards away from Buffalo. It's 'no excuses' time for Shough and Moore in a winnable NFC South.

Quick Hits - What to Expect from the Saints Offense

1. Fast-paced offense.
   1. Strong projections for overall play volume and dropbacks/passes.
   2. But PROE won't necessarily be elevated.
   3. Rushing volume could be surprisingly strong if the team is decent.
2. 11 Personnel on 60-70 percent of snaps (higher than league-average).
   1. Should also see plenty of 12 personnel on early downs. And some 13.
   2. No fullback.
3. More target competition for WR Chris Olave.
4. RB Alvin Kamara still involved on passing downs.
   1. Limited fantasy ceiling for ETN?

Offseason Personnel Moves

The Saints think they have three new quality starters in RB Travis Etienne, WR Jordyn Tyson and G David Edwards. They may be right, though Etienne and Tyson come with sketchy medical records.

The team also made smaller potential upgrades, adding Noah Fant and third-round pick Oscar Delp to replace Foster Moreau and Taysom Hill — a swap that could be especially beneficial to the passing game in multi-TE formations.

The Saints didn't carry a fullback last year and don't have one on the roster this summer, so we'll mostly see 11 and 12 personnel, with 13 personnel and a few other looks mixed in occasionally.

The WR depth doesn't look great, especially given the injury histories for Tyson and Olave, but there's at least some kind of argument in favor of Devaughn Vele and/or Bryce Lance as competent fill-in starters.

Personnel Groupings

Moore's broad track record shows a preference for 11 personnel relative to league-average, but that was partially dictated by pre-existing personnel and philosophy during his time with the Cowboys and Chargers.

His use of 12 personnel has been steady enough that we could easily see a shift to more of that if it's working well for the Saints early this season with their new depth tight ends. (Note that last year's 12 personnel rate looks artificially low in the table below because of issues with classifying Taysom Hill... the Saints still used plenty of multi-TE looks last year, though 11 personnel was clearly the favored grouping).

Kellen Moore Personnel Groupings as Playcaller

Pace, Play Volume and Pass Rate

It's no secret that Kellen Moore's offenses have been fantasy-friendly, sitting well above league-average in play volume for six consecutive seasons across four different teams. Even if we ignore the Dallas years because that volume has held up in Moore's absence, we still see three straight seasons (for three different teams) in which his offense was more than 3 percent above the league-average for total play volume.

Last year's Saints ran 1,075 plays, which was 3.3% above league-average and yet well behind Moore's Eagles (1,114) from 2024 and his Chargers from 2023 (1,106).

The Eagles team was different from the others, to be fair, with a run-heavy approach and average pace (though only one team used no-huddle more often that year). Those Eagles accrued volume due to dominance on defense and on the ground.

All of Moore's other offenses have been fast-paced, though perhaps not as pass-first as one might assume at first glance. Last year's Saints, for example, ranked Top 5 in a smattering of pace stats, but they were just 19th in PROE (-4.0%). They ended up sixth in pass attempts (591), but that was largely due to chasing deficits and the elevated overall play volume, not a product of a high pass rate in neutral situations.

The Etienne signing is another hint that Moore cares about run-pass balance more than his reputation suggests, so there is real upside for the rushing volume if the Saints can improve their blocking and defense (far from guaranteed). 

Kellen Moore Advanced Stats as HC/OC

Playcaller Trends (Play-action, Pre-Snap Motion & More)

Moore has drastically increased his use of pre-snap motion since leaving Dallas, with last year's Saints ranking sixth in use of motion at the snap (35.8%).

The 2025 Saints and 2024 Eagles were below league-average for play-action rate, while Moore's earlier offenses in Dallas and Los Angeles sat right around league-average. Not a ton to see there.

He's generally shown an aptitude for adjusting strategy to fit his personnel, which tends to work well for fantasy when combined with the strong preference for tempo. Doubts about the Saints for fantasy largely revolve around QB play (Shough), health (Olave/Tyson) or the risk of split workloads (Etienne). We can generally count on Moore to do a pretty good job with what he's given.

Key Trends to Monitor Early in the Season (Saints)

1. RB Alvin Kamara cutting into Travis Etienne's role?
2. PROE / pass rate in neutral situations.
3. Juwan Johnson's playing time in multi-TE formations.
   1. Could give way to superior blockers and miss out on some 12-personnel snaps.
4. WR Jordyn Tyson's snap and route shares.
   1. Will Tyson impact Olave's volume on shorter routes?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Key Coaching Changes: OC Zac Robinson
• Key Losses: WR Mike Evans, RB Rachaad White, WR Sterling Shepard
• Key Additions: RB Kenneth Gainwell, WR Ted Hurst (R3)

Todd Bowles kept his job, barely, with the Bucs then bringing in former Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson to engineer a rebound from last year's late-season disaster.

A healthier Baker Mayfield should help, as should a healthier offensive line. Last year, C Graham Barton was the only Tampa Bay lineman to play more than 68.5 percent of snaps on offense. The Bucs still have above-average talent up front, and they're hoping to see leaps forward from young wideouts Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillan.

In fantasy-football world, there's excitement about Tampa Bay's offense because Robinson's offenses in Atlanta sometimes operated at a fast pace and often relied on the best players to take on huge volume. Of course, the Falcons were unusually top-heavy in terms of their offensive weapons, while the Buccaneers have better depth but no Bijan/London-like presence (at least not yet).

Quick Hits - What to Expect from the Buccaneers Offense

1. Plenty of 11 personnel. 
   1. Limited use of 12 and 13 personnel, relative to rest of the league.
2. Pony packages (two RBs).
   1. Falcons led NFL in pony last year (9.6% of snaps).
   2. Bucs gave Kenneth Gainwell a $9.8 million guarantee.
3. Minimal TE involvement in passing game.
   1. Cade Otton no target hog + other TEs may not play much. 

Offseason Personnel Moves

The Bucs lost WR Mike Evans and RB Rachaad White, but they already had decent depth at both positions, plus they added RB Kenneth Gainwell and WR Ted Hurst (third-round pick). Note that Gainwell signed a two-year, $14 million contract with $9.8 million guaranteed, making him the highest-paid No. 2 RB in the league.

Tampa Bay doesn't carry a fullback and didn't do much of anything to bolster TE depth, sticking with Cade Otton, Payne Durham, Ko Kieft and Devin Culp, plus a couple of UDFAs.

Personnel Groupings

Looking at both Robinson's track record and Tampa Bay's roster, it's easy enough to argue for a lot of 11 personnel and two-RB packages, both of which suggest minimal usage of multi-TE formations relative to the rest of the league.

Of course, this would go against the league-wide trends, and also against what Robinson did last year in Atlanta (2nd in 12 personnel usage - 38.2%).

The catch? Robinson's 2024 Atlanta offense led the NFL in use of 11 personnel (86.2%), reflecting the McVay-tree norms at the time.

Zac Robinson's Personnel Usage as Playcaller

Even last year, the Falcons had some games where they went three-wide on over 70 percent of snaps. Robinson showed a willingness to adjust his gameplan toward the extremes, based on the opponent and his team's available personnel (and then game script). Last year in Atlanta, that often meant compensating for injuries and poor performances at QB and WR.

It's certainly possible Robinson continues with frequent use of multi-TE formations, but the more likely scenario is a shift back toward 11 personnel to put Jalen McMillan or Ted Hurst on the field over a middling backup tight end like Ko Kieft or Payne Durham. I'll also note that Robinson used a sixth offensive lineman for just five total snaps in two years in Atlanta, despite deploying a run-first offense, i.e., he preferred the TE receiving threat on the field even when opponents all but knew a run was coming.

While the lack of multi-TE and six-OL snaps may not be ideal for Emeka Egbuka or Chris Godwin in terms of target-rate projections, it could help with snap and route shares if the Bucs are spending most of their time in three-wide sets.

*Note: Robinson's 21 personnel usage in Atlanta was entirely comprised of dual-halfback formations, mostly with both Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier on the field. The Falcons didn't use a traditional fullback, but they deployed these 'pony' packages more than any other team last year.

Pace, Play Volume and Pass Rate

The Falcons were 30th and 32nd in PROE during Robinson's two years as playcaller, but the pace outlook in Tampa Bay doesn't look bad from a fantasy standpoint.

In 2024, the Falcons were third in neutral-situation pace and the seventh-fastest team in terms of average play-clock usage (10.3 seconds at the stop), ultimately ranking eighth in play volume (63.9 per game).

In 2025, the Falcons dropped to 25th in neutral-situation pace and 18th in average play-clock usage, finishing 17th in play volume (61.6 per game). It was still a mediocre, run-first offense, but with the time between plays being right around league-average instead of at the high end.

It isn't out of the question that Robinson could look to push the pace again now that he has a better quarterback. Baker Mayfield is no superstar, but he's just two years removed from a 40-TD season, and has plenty of weapons at his disposal.

The Bucs can reasonably be projected as slightly above average from a pace standpoint and right around average in terms of the run:pass split.

Playcaller Trends (Play-action, Pre-Snap Motion & More)

Robinson shows some very strong statistical trends from his two year in Atlanta, but in many cases — like the extremely low PROE — they appear motivated by personnel more so than his philosophy or his general approach to offense. When we watched the Falcons play the past two years, their offense wasn't always recognizable as a McVay offshoot and more often seemed tailored to Atlanta's strengths (RB/OL) and deficiencies (QB, WR depth).

One thing that was independent of all that: Atlanta used motion at the snap on 58.8 percent of plays, ranking third behind only the Rams and Dolphins for 2024–25. (Frequent use of pre-snap motion often slows offenses down, but Robinson and McVay have shown that isn't always the case.)

Another strong trend: no team used play-action (10.0%) less often than Atlanta the past two years. That's partially because Robinson's QBs didn't spend much time lined up under center, but it nonetheless seems like an area for improvement in Tampa Bay — an easy way to make the offense less predictable. It'll help that Baker Mayfield has far more confidence than Michael Penix throwing over the middle of the field (and far better arm strength than Kirk Cousins).

Robinson's offenses in Atlanta were otherwise noteworthy for using pistol formations on a league-high 38.1 percent of snaps over the past two seasons (no other team was above 24.5%).

Only the Bengals and Commanders had fewer snaps under center over the past two years.

For what it's worth, Mayfield hasn't shown strong splits in terms of shotgun vs. under center, nor for play-action vs. straight dropbacks. He's no superstar, but he doesn't have the limitations that Robinson was forced to scheme around with Penix and Cousins in Atlanta. While the Bucs may spend a lot of time in pistol and shotgun formations, it probably won't be to the same extreme as Robinson's teams in Atlanta.

We'll get a better idea of what Robinson wants to do when he can scheme for his QB rather than around him.

Key Trends to Monitor Early in the Season (Buccaneers)

1. 11 personnel usage vs. heavier packages.
   1. Potential to lead league in 3+ WR formations.
   2. Ted Hurst or Tez Johnson sleeper?
2. Route and target shares for WRs Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan.
3. Pace & PROE.
   1. Robinson was run-heavy in ATL, but uptempo at times.
4. Touch/snap split between RBs Bucky Irving & Kenneth Gainwell.
   1. Should take at least a few snaps together per week.
   2. Irving heavy favorite for most of the carries.