DraftKings NFL Week 1: Top Picks & Lineup Strategy for Sunday's Games

The first Sunday of the NFL season has finally arrived, and we have a 12-game slate on DraftKings. As unpredictable as the league is, Week 1 is especially volatile as there are new coaches, players, schemes and a lack of previous data to analyze. 

Embracing that uncertainty is the name of the game for tournaments. There are few better weeks to take chances than this one. The large-field tournaments have historically been won with lineups where cumulative ownership is less than 100 percent. That means only a few chalky players paired with a few who aren't popular at all. The leverage gained by fading chalk in favor of something less popular is what vaults lineups to the top. 

If you're only interested in rostering the "best plays," stick to cash games (double ups and 50/50s). In this breakdown I've highlighted the top options for that format and included some ideas for tournament stacks as well. Good luck.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

• RB Jahmyr Gibbs vs. NO ($8,000)

Gibbs will be the most popular player on the slate and rightfully so. He projects for the most raw points but also as the best dollar-adjusted value. With David Montgomery in Houston and no competition from an injured Isiah Pacheco, it's easy to understand why Gibbs looks so appealing considering Detroit's 28.25-point implied total and home matchup against New Orleans. The No. 1 overall pick in a majority of summer fantasy drafts, he should be the first click in cash games this week.

• WR Chris Olave at DET ($6,700)

Olave finished last season on a tear and opens this one with an ideal matchup in Detroit. The Lions secondary struggled mightily a year ago and is worse off now as they'll be without three projected starters due to injury/suspension. The Saints spent a first-round pick on WR Jordyn Tyson to complement Olave, but he's out for at least another month. Olave should see a ton of volume in this spot, especially with a trailing game script. It says a lot that he projects for the third-most points at WR, behind only Ja'Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown, who are considerably more expensive. 

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Other Cash-Game Options

Quarterback: Justin Herbert vs. ARI ($6,100), Jared Goff vs. NO ($6,000), Trevor Lawrence vs. CLE ($5,800), Tyler Shough at DET ($5,600), Kyler Murray vs. GB ($5,500)

Running Back: Bijan Robinson at PIT ($7,700), De'Von Achane at LV ($7,000), Omarion Hampton vs. ARI ($6,800), Derrick Henry at IND ($6,700), Ashton Jeanty vs. MIA ($6,600), Breece Hall at TEN ($6,200), Bucky Irving at CIN ($5,700)

Wide Receiver: Ja'Marr Chase vs. TB ($7,800), Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. NO ($7,500), Ladd McConkey vs. ARI ($5,900), Garrett Wilson at TEN ($5,800), Parker Washington vs. CLE ($5,600), Quentin Johnston vs. ARI ($4,700), Tre Tucker vs. MIA ($4,000), Devaughn Vele at DET ($3,500)

Tight End: Colston Loveland at CAR ($5,300), Sam LaPorta vs. NO ($4,400), Juwan Johnson at DET ($3,700), Michael Mayer vs. MIA ($2,900)

Defense/Special Teams: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. CLE ($3,400), Tennessee Titans vs. NYJ ($3,100), Las Vegas Raiders vs. MIA ($2,900), New York Jets at TEN ($2,500)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

New Orleans Saints (21.25) at Detroit Lions (28.25)

SAINTS

The New Orleans offense operated at the fastest pace in the league last season under Kellen Moore, and I'm expecting more of the same in his second year in charge. Tyler Shough ($5,600) showed plenty of promise as a rookie and should be better in his sophomore campaign. The Saints drafted Jordyn Tyson with the eighth overall pick, but he'll miss at least the first month after injuring his hamstring. That leaves WRs Chris Olave ($6,700) and Devaughn Vele ($3,500), along with tight end Juwan Johnson ($3,700), as Shough's top options. Olave and Johnson project among the best point-per-dollar values at their position and should be relatively popular as a result. With Alvin Kamara expected out, the running back room includes newly acquired Travis Etienne ($5,900) and Kendre Miller. Etienne makes sense for leverage in Lions stacks because he's cheap, has upside and won't be overly popular. That being said, the Saints are seven-point road underdogs and feature a condensed passing attack, so that's where my focus will be. 

LIONS

Detroit at home in the dome always has shootout potential, and that's especially true with New Orleans in town. Lions games averaged the third-most points (52.6) in the league last season and the offense might be more pass-happy this year with David Montgomery gone and backup Isiah Pacheco already out injured. The matchup is about as favorable as it gets for fantasy-point production. As mentioned at the top, Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,000) is the best value on the board and will be very popular. It's a great spot for Jared Goff ($6,000) and his other weapons too, however. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,500) is coming off another standout season, while Jameson Williams ($6,000) found some consistency and flashed big ceiling scores. TE Sam LaPorta ($4,400) is cheaper than we're used to seeing and projects among the best values at his position. It's worth noting that both he and Juwan Johnson would have been considerably more popular had Brock Bowers not been unexpectedly ruled out. 

• Favorite Saints Stack: QB Shough + RB Gibbs + WR Olave + TE Johnson or WR Vele
• Favorite Saints Stack 2: QB Shough + RB Gibbs + WR St. Brown + WR Olave + TE Johnson or WR Vele
• Favorite Lions Stack 1: QB Goff + RB Gibbs + WR St. Brown + TE Johnson or WR Vele
• Favorite Lions Stack 2: QB Goff + RB Gibbs + WR Williams + TE Johnson or WR Vele

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (23.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (27)

BUCCANEERS

The highest-total game of the week sees Tampa Bay travel to Cincinnati to face a Bengals defense that was awful last season. They've supposedly improved but only time will tell. Baker Mayfield ($5,900) has a lot to prove after signing a $165M contract extension and he's fortunately surrounded by talent at the skill positions. Emeka Egbuka ($6,200) and Chris Godwin ($5,200) are his top WRs; both are priced affordably and neither likely to be popular, so they offer leverage in tournaments. At RB, Kenny Gainwell ($5,200) was signed to complement Bucky Irving ($5,700), which muddies the waters a bit. Irving is still cheap enough that he projects as a pretty strong value and always offers upside as a big-play threat. A chance I'm willing to take with ownership expected in the single-digits. 

BENGALS

This looks like the perfect matchup for Joe Burrow ($6,900). We've been targeting Tampa Bay's pass funnel defense for years and it seems as though not much has changed. The Bucs ranked fifth against the run last season and 27th against the pass. Ja'Marr Chase ($7,800) is cheaper than we're used to seeing and projects as the top point-per-dollar value at WR. He'll be one of, if not the most popular at the position. Tee Higgins ($6,300) will be somewhat overlooked and is therefore more intriguing as a leverage option. He finished last season with nine touchdowns in his last nine games. It's not an ideal spot for RB Chase Brown ($7,100) against a stout run defense, and he's likely reliant on receptions to pay off his salary. With Samaje Perine back to steal some third-down work, that's not a gamble I'll be taking this week considering the plethora of more appealing options priced in Brown's range. 

• Favorite Buccaneer Stack: QB Mayfield + WR Chase or WR Higgins + WR Godwin
• Favorite Bengals Stack: QB Burrow + RB Irving + WR Chase and/or WR Higgins 
• Favorite Bengals Stack 2: QB Burrow + WR Chase or WR Higgins + WR Godwin

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Lamar Jackson + WR Zay Flowers

QB Jalen Hurts + WR DeVonta Smith or TE Dallas Goedert

QB Caleb Williams + WR Tetairoa McMillan or WR Jalen Coker + TE Colston Loveland

QB Justin Herbert + WR Ladd McConkey and/or WR Quentin Johnston

QB Trevor Lawrence + WR Parker Washington

QB Jordan Love + WR Jayden Reed or WR Matthew Golden +/- WR Justin Jefferson

QB Kyler Murray + WR Justin Jefferson +/- WR Jayden Reed or WR Matthew Golden

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. TB ($7,800)

I always like targeting pass-catchers against Tampa Bay because they prioritize stopping the run. In this case that means arguably the best WR in the league, who I assume is priced cheaper than we'll see all year considering he was above $8K for the final 10 games of last season. Cincinnati has installed an under-center, play-action scheme that experts say should help passing-game efficiency, and their offensive line is apparently much improved. Good signs for an offense that was already explosive. 

• TE Colston Loveland at CAR ($5,300)

I chose Loveland for two reasons: first, most people will punt the TE position, with Juwan Johnson looking strong and after Michael Mayer emerged as the top value in the wake of the Brock Bowers news. Second, because Loveland emerged as Chicago's top receiving option over the second half of last season and into the playoffs. He finished with double-digit targets in each of his last four games and turned them into 21+ fantasy points in three. Not to mention he has a favorable matchup against a Carolina defense that struggled stopping TEs a year ago. 

Honorable Mention: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,500)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB Chase Brown vs. TB ($7,100)

The decision to fade Brown this week is based on matchup and opportunity cost. As I've mentioned a few times, the matchup against Tampa Bay is far from ideal for his rushing prospects, and Samaje Perine is likely to steal some of his targets in the passing game. There are too many good RBs in his salary range I'd rather have exposure to; Achane, Hampton, Henry and Jeanty all project better for cheaper. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• TE Michael Mayer vs. MIA ($2,900)

It's always a bit annoying when we get major news after DraftKings has released salaries. Mayer would've been priced at or above $4K had we known about Brock Bowers' injury. As it stands, he projects as the top value by a wide margin and will be chalky because of it. When Bowers sat out Week 17 last season, Mayer caught nine of 10 targets for 89 yards. He's good enough to start elsewhere, and new Raiders QB Kirk Cousins likes throwing to TEs. It's also a favorable matchup against what's expected to be a bad Miami defense. 

The Bargain Bin

Running Back: MarShawn Lloyd at MIN ($4,800)

Wide Receiver: Jayden Reed at MIN ($4,900), Wan'Dale Robinson vs. NYJ ($4,800), Quentin Johnston vs. ARI ($4,700), Matthew Golden at MIN ($4,700), Jalen Coker vs. CHI ($4,600), Tre Tucker vs. MIA ($4,000), Devaughn Vele at DET ($3,500), Chris Bell at LV ($3,200), Caleb Douglas at LV ($3,000)

Tight End: Juwan Johnson at DET ($3,700), Michael Mayer vs. MIA ($2,900)

Injuries to Monitor

Brock Bowers being ruled out earlier in the week was major news. There's been nothing of real significance since. 

UPDATE: Tua Tagovailoa has been ruled out and Cooper Rush will start for the Falcons. I'll be fading Drake London and Kyle Pitts. 

Weather

All clear this week.