The Falcons travel to Green Bay for Thursday Night Football with both teams dealing with major personnel questions. Atlanta gets Michael Penix Jr. back, while Green Bay remains without Josh Jacobs and Micah Parsons and will also be missing Jayden Reed and two starting offensive linemen.
The betting market has noticed. Green Bay opened as a 7.5-point favorite with a 46.5-point total, but both numbers have dropped.
Atlanta is 0-2 and has scored just 16 points, including an ugly 34-3 loss to Carolina last week. The Falcons haven't reached the red zone this season and are 6-for-25 on third down.
Penix gives them at least some reason for optimism. He'll make his season debut after recovering from a torn ACL he suffered last November, replacing Cooper Rush. I'm willing to throw out at least some of what we saw from Atlanta's passing game the first two weeks.
Green Bay is 1-1 after beating the Jets 20-17 in overtime last week, but the offense hasn't exactly been rolling. The Packers rank last in the NFL in rushing yards, while Jordan Love has completed just 52.1 percent of his passes.
Jacobs and Parsons have yet to play this season, and now Reed, Aaron Banks, Zach Bako-Bewele and Warren Brinson are out Thursday. Defensive tackles Javon Hargrave and Anthony Campbell are questionable.
Reed's absence is particularly important for DFS. Christian Watson and Matthew Golden combined for eight of Green Bay's 16 receptions and 109 of Love's 145 passing yards against the Jets.
Weather shouldn't be much of a factor at Lambeau Field. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 60s around kickoff before falling into the 50s, with dry conditions and very little wind.
This isn't the 54.5-point Lions-Bills game we had last Thursday. With a lower total and both teams missing important pieces, I'm much more willing to use kickers and defenses. Bijan Robinson is the obvious player to build around, but the decisions after him are what make the slate interesting.
For lineup information, keep updated with our fantasy football news page. Always consult our NFL Starting Lineups page for the latest starting lineup information prior to kickoff.
Our RotoWire NFL Optimizer will help you pinpoint top DFS targets, in addition to the players highlighted below.
CAPTAIN/MVP STRATEGY
DraftKings Captain and FanDuel MVP selection is critical because the player earns 1.5X fantasy points while also costing 1.5X his normal salary.
Robinson ($11,800 DK, $13,000 FD) is the most expensive player and my preferred Captain. He costs $17,700 in that spot, compared to $15,000 for Love ($10,000 DK, $12,400 FD), $14,700 for Watson ($9,800 DK, $10,800 FD), $13,500 for Penix ($9,000 DK, $10,200 FD) and $13,200 for Drake London ($8,800 DK, $11,400 FD).
I don't mind paying up for Robinson. He's the one player who doesn't need a particular game script. Atlanta can be leading or trailing, and he's still going to be involved. His receiving role also gives him another way to separate from the field.
He's projected for more than 20 DraftKings points in the RotoWire player pool, easily the highest on the slate.
I also wouldn't automatically pair Robinson with Penix. If Robinson scores twice and catches five or six passes, he could easily be the optimal Captain without Penix making the optimal lineup.
Watson is more interesting for tournaments. With Reed out, there are only so many places for Love to go with the ball, and Watson doesn't need 10 catches to be the highest-scoring player.
Golden ($7,800 DK, $8,200 FD) is my favorite Captain pivot.
At $11,700 in the Captain spot, Golden saves $6,000 from Robinson. That's enough to completely change the rest of the lineup and makes it much easier to get both Robinson and Love.
GPP LINEUP CONSTRUCTION
The line movement matters here. Green Bay opened around -7.5 with a 46.5 total, and both numbers have come down. This doesn't look like a game where we need five touchdowns to have a chance.
That brings the kickers and defenses into play.
I'm also not going to get hung up on 4-2 versus 3-3 builds. I'd rather build around a game script than decide beforehand that I need four Packers.
Robinson Captain without Penix makes sense. Love is different. If he's the highest-scoring player, I'd expect at least one of Watson, Golden or Tucker Kraft to have a big game with him. I'll usually have two.
The same applies to Penix. If he's throwing two or three touchdowns, somebody has to catch them. London and Kyle Pitts are the obvious places to start.
I don't feel any need to force a Green Bay running back into Love lineups, either. The Packers have been splitting the work without Jacobs, and the results haven't been good.
As usual with single-game slates, spending all your salary cap isn't necessary. I'd rather leave $800 unused than make a lateral move to a more popular player just because he's more expensive.
Quarterback
Love is the better quarterback play.
He projects for 16.69 DraftKings points and 16.50 FanDuel points in the RotoWire player pool, trailing only Robinson.
We also have a pretty good idea where the targets should go. Watson and Golden accounted for half of Green Bay's receptions last week, while Kraft remains involved at tight end.
However, there are concerns. Love has completed only 37 of 71 passes through two games, though his 7.5 yards per attempt and four touchdown passes show he's still creating plays downfield. Banks and Bako-Bewele are out along the offensive line, though Anthony Belton will play.
Penix is much harder to project.
He hasn't played a regular-season game since last November. There's going to be some rust, but he was a full participant all three days this week and doesn't carry an injury designation.
The matchup isn't easy for a quarterback returning from a long absence. Green Bay ranks third in the NFL with a 45.6-percent pressure rate and fifth with an 8.9-percent sack rate, while Atlanta has allowed the fourth-highest sack rate through two weeks.
He's also $1,000 cheaper than Love on DraftKings.
I'm more comfortable with Love, but Penix has GPP appeal. We haven't really seen Atlanta's intended offense yet, and if Penix looks good, the first two weeks aren't going to matter much.
Running Back
Robinson is the best play on the slate.
Atlanta doesn't have to score 30 points for him to have a big game. He can get there with rushing volume, receptions or touchdowns, and there's a realistic chance he leads the team in both carries and catches.
He's the player I'm least comfortable fading.
Green Bay is a messier situation.
MarShawn Lloyd ($7,400 DK, $9,400 FD) projects for 10.21 DraftKings points, but $7,400 feels expensive without a clearly established workhorse role.
Chris Brooks ($5,400 DK, $5,200 FD) makes more sense to me because of the savings, while Kaleb Johnson ($4,000 DK, $7,200 FD) is another tournament option.
Maybe one of them scores twice and wins the slate. I'm just not interested in pretending I know which one it will be.
Brian Robinson ($4,400 DK, $6,600 FD) is the cheaper Atlanta alternative. He's mostly touchdown dependent, but that also makes him useful in tournaments if everyone is spending up for Bijan.
Wide Receiver + Tight End
Watson is my favorite Packers receiver.
The role is there, Reed is out and Watson can turn one or two plays into a tournament-winning score. That's exactly what I'm looking for from a receiver who costs almost $10,000.
Golden is probably the more important player for lineup construction.
He's $7,800 on DraftKings and $8,200 on FanDuel. Watson and Golden combined for 109 of Love's 145 passing yards last week, so we're not talking about a cheap player who needs his role to suddenly change.
Golden is my favorite salary-adjusted play. The $2,000 difference between him and Watson is useful, especially if I'm trying to play Robinson and Love together.
Kraft ($7,000 DK, $8,600 FD) is another player I'll have plenty of; he projects for 11.49 DraftKings points and gives Love another obvious stacking partner.
London ($8,800 DK, $11,400 FD) is much more appealing to me on DraftKings.
Atlanta's wide receivers and tight ends have combined for only 17 catches, 173 yards and no touchdowns through two games, all league lows. I'm willing to give that entire passing game something of a reset with Penix back.
If I'm playing Penix, London is the first receiver I want with him, although Pitts ($6,600 DK, $7,600 FD) is the more interesting tournament option.
Nobody needs me to explain the frustration that comes with playing Pitts in DFS. He has only one catch for 15 yards on four targets, but Atlanta acknowledged this week it needs to get him more involved.
The matchup gives us another reason to consider him. Green Bay has allowed touchdowns on 85.7 percent of opponents' red-zone trips, ranking 28th in the league. Atlanta hasn't reached the red zone yet, but Penix gives this offense a chance to look considerably different.
At $6,600, Pitts doesn't need a monster game; five catches for 60 yards and a touchdown would be more than enough.
Then there are the cheap receivers.
Skyy Moore ($2,400 DK, $4,800 FD) is my favorite of the group. His 4.67-point DraftKings projection isn't exciting, but that's not the point. If he catches three passes and allows me to play Robinson, Love and Watson or Golden, he's done his job.
Jahan Dotson ($3,000 DK, $5,600 FD), Olamide Zaccheaus ($2,000 DK, $4,200 FD) and Zachariah Branch ($3,800 DK, $4,600 FD) are also tournament options.
I'm looking for one salary saver from this tier who can get me six or seven points and let the expensive players do the rest.
Kicker/DST
I'm more interested in kickers this week than I was for Lions-Bills.
Trey Smack ($5,200 DK, $6,800 FD) projects for 7.47 points, while Nick Folk ($4,800 DK, $6,200 FD) projects for 7.36.
The weather isn't a concern, and in a game with a total in the low 40s, either could end up being useful.
Green Bay DST ($5,000 DK, $7,000 FD) has a stronger case than Atlanta's point total alone suggests.
The Packers' 45.6-percent pressure rate ranks third in the league, while Atlanta has been one of the NFL's most sack-prone offenses. That's a difficult spot for Penix in his first game back.
I'm still not completely sold. Parsons hasn't played this season, Brinson is out and Hargrave and Campbell are questionable, leaving some uncertainty along the defensive front.
Atlanta DST ($3,400 DK, $6,000 FD) is my preferred tournament alternative.
Green Bay is missing two offensive linemen along with Reed and Jacobs, while Love has been sacked seven times. At $3,400, a few sacks and a turnover might be enough.
BEST DFS PLAYS
Best DK Captain: Bijan Robinson ($11,800 DK, $13,000 FD)
Best DK GPP Captain: Christian Watson ($9,800 DK, $10,800 FD)
Best DK Captain Pivot: Matthew Golden ($7,800 DK, $8,200 FD)
Best FD MVP: Bijan Robinson ($11,800 DK, $13,000 FD)
Best Packers Stack: Love + Watson + Golden
Best Falcons Stack: Penix + Robinson + London
Best Midrange GPP Play: Tucker Kraft ($7,000 DK, $8,600 FD)
Best Salary-Adjusted Play: Matthew Golden ($7,800 DK, $8,200 FD)
Best Boom-or-Bust GPP Play: Kyle Pitts ($6,600 DK, $7,600 FD)
Best Salary-Saving Play: Skyy Moore ($2,400 DK, $4,800 FD)
Preferred GPP DST: Atlanta Falcons ($3,400 DK, $6,000 FD)
Robinson is going to be the first click for a lot of people, and I don't think there's anything wrong with that.
The more interesting decision is what to do with Green Bay. I'm leaning toward the passing game rather than trying to figure out the backfield. Watson has the ceiling, Golden gives you the better price and Kraft fits nicely in Love stacks.
Golden might ultimately be the player I use the most. At $7,800, he lets me get to Robinson and Love without completely punting the last two roster spots.
Atlanta is tougher.
We haven't seen Penix this season, and I'm not going to pretend I know exactly what this offense looks like with him. That's also what makes it interesting for tournaments. The Green Bay pass rush creates obvious downside, but Penix also gives London and Pitts considerably more upside than they showed during Atlanta's first two games.
Figure out how you think the game plays out and build from there.
If Green Bay controls it, Love with two of Watson, Golden and Kraft makes sense. If Penix gives Atlanta a spark, pair him with London or Pitts. If Bijan is the entire Atlanta offense, play him at Captain and don't worry about forcing Penix into the lineup.
You don't need to get weird everywhere.
One different captain, one cheap receiver or some salary left on the table is usually enough. I'd rather have a good lineup that's a little different than a bad lineup that's completely unique.
