The Steelers travel to Cleveland for Thursday Night Football with both teams sitting at 2-1 and a chance to take control of the AFC North. This isn't a game I'm expecting to turn into a shootout. Pittsburgh is favored by 2.5 points with a 38.5-point total, and that changes how I'm approaching the slate. I'm much more willing to use kickers and defenses than I would be in a game projected for 50-plus points.
The biggest DFS development is Rico Dowdle being ruled out for the second consecutive game. Jaylen Warren took advantage against Cincinnati last week, rushing 17 times for 127 yards and adding three catches for 49 yards. He'll have another chance to handle a big workload Thursday and enters the slate as the player I'm most comfortable building around.
Cleveland has problems up front, with center Elgton Jenkins and guard Teven Jenkins both ruled out. That's not ideal against a Pittsburgh pass rush capable of wrecking a game. The Steelers have issues of their own in the secondary, with Joey Porter Jr. out and Jalen Ramsey questionable with a wrist injury, which gives Cleveland at least some reason to attack through the air if the protection holds up.
Weather is worth checking again before lock, but I'm not making any major adjustments based on the current outlook. Forecasts differ on the timing of potential rain, with temperatures expected in the mid-70s and winds around 10 mph. The most likely outcome is playable conditions, so weather isn't enough to move me off either passing game at this point.
For lineup information, keep updated with our fantasy football news page. Always consult our NFL Starting Lineups page for the latest starting lineup information prior to kickoff.
Our RotoWire NFL Optimizer will help you pinpoint top DFS targets, in addition to the players highlighted below.
CAPTAIN/MVP STRATEGY
DraftKings Captain and FanDuel MVP selection is critical because the player earns 1.5X fantasy points while also costing 1.5X his normal salary.
Warren ($9,600 DK, $11,400 FD) is my preferred Captain and MVP. He projects for 18.70 DraftKings points and 16.94 FanDuel points in the RotoWire player pool, both the highest marks on the slate. Warren has 326 yards from scrimmage through three games and somehow hasn't scored a touchdown, while his 14 targets to go along with 38 carries give him multiple ways to produce. Pittsburgh can play from ahead, behind or in a close game, and Warren should remain involved.
Warren costs $14,400 in the DraftKings Captain spot, compared to $14,700 for Aaron Rodgers ($9,800 DK, $12,600 FD), $14,100 for Deshaun Watson ($9,400 DK, $11,800 FD) and $13,500 for DK Metcalf ($9,000 DK, $10,800 FD). I'm comfortable paying that price because Warren has the clearest combination of workload and game-script independence on the slate. Watson is more interesting as a tournament alternative because his rushing ability gives him a path to becoming the highest-scoring player even without a huge passing night.
Harold Fannin ($7,400 DK, $9,400 FD) is my favorite Captain pivot. He caught seven of nine targets for 51 yards and two touchdowns last week, and at $11,100 in the Captain spot he saves $3,300 from Warren. That difference changes the rest of the lineup and makes it much easier to fit multiple high-end plays without dropping all the way down to a thin punt.
GPP LINEUP CONSTRUCTION
The 38.5-point total is the starting point for how I'm building. I'm not going to force four skill-position players into every lineup when Chris Boswell ($5,200 DK, $6,800 FD), Andre Szmyt ($4,600 DK, $6,200 FD) and both defenses are viable. I'm also willing to build without both quarterbacks, especially in lineups that assume Pittsburgh controls the game with Warren and its defense.
Watson and Rodgers are projected for roughly 80-percent roster rates on DraftKings, while Warren sits below 50 percent despite having the highest projection in the RotoWire player pool. I don't expect Warren to actually go overlooked, but those numbers reinforce my willingness to leave out one of the quarterbacks. If Warren scores twice and Pittsburgh controls the game on the ground, Rodgers might not make the optimal lineup. Watson could have the same problem if Pittsburgh's pass rush takes over against Cleveland's depleted offensive line.
I'm also not worried about forcing a 4-2 or 3-3 build. Figure out how you think the game plays out and work backward. A Pittsburgh-controlled game points me toward Warren, Steelers DST and Boswell, while a Cleveland comeback script makes Watson with two of Fannin, Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion more attractive. As usual, I'm willing to leave salary unused rather than make a lateral move to a more popular player simply because I can afford him.
Quarterback
Watson ($9,400 DK, $11,800 FD) is my preferred quarterback on DraftKings. He projects for 16.15 points compared to 14.08 for Rodgers, and most of the difference comes from what Watson can do with his legs. He's thrown five touchdowns through three games while rushing for 105 yards, including 45 yards on 11 carries against Carolina last week.
The matchup is the concern. Cleveland will be without two starting interior offensive linemen, which creates a difficult assignment against Pittsburgh's pass rush and increases Watson's sack and turnover risk. That same volatility makes him interesting in tournaments, however, because his rushing ability gives him a fantasy ceiling Rodgers doesn't have.
Rodgers is the safer real-life quarterback, but I don't consider him a must in DFS. He's thrown for 700 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions through three games, and Pittsburgh has the option of leaning heavily on Warren if the Steelers are playing from ahead. I'll have Rodgers in Pittsburgh passing-game builds, but Watson is the quarterback I prefer in a vacuum.
Running Back
Warren is the best play on the slate, and I don't see much reason to overcomplicate it. Dowdle is out, Warren is coming off 176 yards from scrimmage and has a legitimate receiving role. He's the one player whose workload I'm not worried about, and his lack of a touchdown through three games hasn't prevented him from producing.
Quinshon Judkins ($8,800 DK, $10,200 FD) is much harder for me to click. He has 124 rushing yards on 42 carries through three games, an average of just 3.0 yards per carry, and projects for only 8.72 DraftKings points and 7.60 FanDuel points. At $8,800 on DK, I probably need either a touchdown or a Cleveland-controlled game script to justify the salary.
Raheim Sanders ($4,400 DK, $4,800 FD) is a cheaper Cleveland alternative, while Travis Homer ($2,600 DK, $3,400 FD) is more interesting on the Pittsburgh side. Homer is cheap enough that a few touches and one reception could be useful, especially if Warren is captain. Lew Nichols ($1,400 DK) is a deeper tournament punt who only needs a small role to have a chance at paying off that salary.
Wide Receiver + Tight End
Fannin is my favorite pass catcher. He's $7,400 on DraftKings and projects for 12.24 points, which puts him ahead of several more expensive players. The nine targets last week are what interest me the most; the two touchdowns were great, but I don't want to chase touchdowns. I want the player who has a realistic chance to catch six or seven passes again.
Denzel Boston ($8,000 DK, $8,200 FD) has more big-play upside after producing 195 yards and two touchdowns on nine catches through three games. I like him more with Watson than as a standalone play. KC Concepcion ($6,400 DK, $5,800 FD) might be more important for lineup construction, projecting for 9.84 DraftKings points and 7.98 FanDuel points. The FanDuel price really stands out because $5,800 makes it much easier to fit Warren with two or three other expensive players.
Pittsburgh's receivers are trickier. Metcalf ($9,000 DK, $10,800 FD) projects for only 9.69 DraftKings points, which isn't enough for me to prioritize him in safer builds, but his big-play ability keeps him firmly in the tournament pool. Michael Pittman ($7,000 DK, $7,600 FD) is cheaper, but Roman Wilson ($4,000 DK, $8,400 FD) is the Pittsburgh receiver I prefer for the salary. Wilson has 11 catches for 114 yards and a touchdown through three games, and at $4,000 he doesn't need another touchdown to be useful.
Pat Freiermuth ($5,600 DK, $7,200 FD) is also in play, although I'd rather find the extra salary for Fannin. Freiermuth makes more sense in Rodgers stacks or lineups built around Pittsburgh succeeding through the air. The middle of this salary range is important because it lets us avoid relying on players who need something unusual to happen just to get meaningful snaps.
Kicker/DST
I'm going to have plenty of this group. Boswell projects for 7.67 DraftKings points at $5,200, while Szmyt projects for 6.73 at $4,600. In a game with a total below 40, that's enough to put both in play. Boswell is my preference because I trust Pittsburgh's offense more to move the ball without necessarily finishing every drive with a touchdown.
Steelers DST ($5,000 DK, $7,000 FD) is one of my favorite tournament plays. Cleveland is missing two starting interior offensive linemen, while Watson's willingness to scramble can create both good and bad plays. If Pittsburgh gets four or five sacks and forces a turnover or two, the Steelers defense could easily outscore several midrange skill players.
Cleveland DST ($4,800 DK, $6,400 FD) is the other side of it and gives us another path to attacking what projects as a low-scoring game. I'm comfortable playing a kicker and defense together, and I'm even willing to play both defenses in a small percentage of large-field tournament lineups. This is one of the rare single-game slates where that type of construction doesn't feel forced.
BEST DFS PLAYS
Best DK Captain: Jaylen Warren ($9,600 DK, $11,400 FD)
Best DK GPP Captain: Deshaun Watson ($9,400 DK, $11,800 FD)
Best DK Captain Pivot: Harold Fannin ($7,400 DK, $9,400 FD)
Best FD MVP: Jaylen Warren ($9,600 DK, $11,400 FD)
Best Steelers Stack: Warren + Rodgers + Roman Wilson
Best Browns Stack: Watson + Fannin + KC Concepcion
Best Midrange GPP Play: Harold Fannin ($7,400 DK, $9,400 FD)
Best Salary-Adjusted Play: KC Concepcion ($6,400 DK, $5,800 FD)
Best Boom-or-Bust GPP Play: DK Metcalf ($9,000 DK, $10,800 FD)
Best DK Salary-Saving Play: Roman Wilson ($4,000 DK, $8,400 FD)
Preferred Kicker: Chris Boswell ($5,200 DK, $6,800 FD)
Preferred GPP DST: Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,000 DK, $7,000 FD)
Warren is going to be my first click in most builds, and I don't see much reason to get cute with it. He has the best workload on the slate, catches passes and is coming off 176 yards without scoring a touchdown. After Warren, the middle of the salary range is where this slate gets interesting, with Fannin my favorite Cleveland skill-position player, Concepcion offering useful salary relief on FanDuel and Wilson filling a similar role on DraftKings.
I'm also going to have more Steelers DST and Boswell than I normally would. The total is low, Cleveland is missing two starting offensive linemen and Pittsburgh has a clear path to creating negative plays against Watson. That's exactly the type of setup where a kicker scoring 11 points or a defense getting four sacks and two turnovers can decide the slate.
Figure out how you think the game plays out and build from there. If Pittsburgh controls it, Warren with Steelers DST or Boswell makes sense, and I don't think Rodgers automatically has to come along. If Cleveland keeps it close through Watson, pair him with Fannin, Boston or Concepcion. You don't need to get weird everywhere; one different Captain, one cheaper receiver or some salary left on the table is usually enough to make a good lineup a little different.
