MONDAY NIGHT
Denver (+2.5) at Kansas City, o/u 43.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
It was the end of an era last year in the AFC West, as Denver became the first team since 2015 other than Kansas City to win a division title. The Broncos boasted an elite defense that led the league in yards per play allowed and sacks, while Bo Nix carried a fairly meh group of skill players on offense as far as he could before suffering an ankle injury in a divisional-round loss to the Bills. Sean Payton got his young QB some help in the form of Jaylen Waddle, but this is still a team built to win low-scoring affairs, not run the other team out of the building. The backfield duo of J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey could provide a little more, but expecting Dobbins to stay fully healthy is little more than wishful thinking.
Kansas City's collapse last year, and the end of a 10-season playoff streak that included three Super Bowl wins, had a number of factors contributing to it, and not all have been solved. Patrick Mahomes has fully recovered from his knee injury, and OC Matt Nagy is gone, but the team still lacks a true top target as Travis Kelce approaches the end of the line and Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy, for various reasons, have had trouble staying on the field. Adding Kenneth Walker after his Super Bowl MVP performance should add a jolt
MONDAY NIGHT
Denver (+2.5) at Kansas City, o/u 43.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
It was the end of an era last year in the AFC West, as Denver became the first team since 2015 other than Kansas City to win a division title. The Broncos boasted an elite defense that led the league in yards per play allowed and sacks, while Bo Nix carried a fairly meh group of skill players on offense as far as he could before suffering an ankle injury in a divisional-round loss to the Bills. Sean Payton got his young QB some help in the form of Jaylen Waddle, but this is still a team built to win low-scoring affairs, not run the other team out of the building. The backfield duo of J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey could provide a little more, but expecting Dobbins to stay fully healthy is little more than wishful thinking.
Kansas City's collapse last year, and the end of a 10-season playoff streak that included three Super Bowl wins, had a number of factors contributing to it, and not all have been solved. Patrick Mahomes has fully recovered from his knee injury, and OC Matt Nagy is gone, but the team still lacks a true top target as Travis Kelce approaches the end of the line and Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy, for various reasons, have had trouble staying on the field. Adding Kenneth Walker after his Super Bowl MVP performance should add a jolt to the backfield the team hasn't had since Kareem Hunt was a rookie, but Walker hasn't been an iron man in his career either. The decision to bring back Eric Bieniemy as OC isn't a great sign that Andy Reid is looking to add new wrinkles to his scheme to stay fresh, either. DC Steve Spagnuolo's unit should remain a relative strength even with a completely remade secondary, but there's still not a lot of pass-rush talent unless second-round pick R Mason Thomas makes a splash out of the gate. Mahomes is the linchpin of the team's success, of course, but KC may find it tougher to get back to the top of the mountain that it was to reach the peak initially.
Key Info
DEN injury report: EDGE Jonathan Cooper (out, suspension)
KC injury report: LT Josh Simmons (questionable, back), DT Chris Jones (questionable, calf), S Chamarri Conner (questionable, knee)
Slight lean: WR Courtland Sutton (KC t-22nd in receptions per game allowed to WR2s in 2025)
Slight lean: WR Xavier Worthy (DEN 27th in receptions per game allowed to WR2s in 2025)
Slight fade: TE Evan Engram (KC eighth in receiving yards allowed to TEs in 2025)
Slight fade: WR Rashee Rice (DEN fifth in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2025)
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NFL weather report: 10-15 mph wind, 45-55 percent chance of rain
Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 KC, average score 21-19 DEN, average margin of victory 10 points. The Broncos have won three straight meetings and four of the last five, snapping a 16-game losing streak in the rivalry and in Week 17 last season, they won their first game in KC since 2015 – albeit with Chris Oladokun under center rather than Patrick Mahomes
The Scoop: Dobbins grinds out 50 yards. Nix throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Waddle. Walker's KC debut is a bit of a dud with 60 yards. Mahomes throws for 210 yards and two TDs, one each to Rice and Kelce — with the latter winning the game inside the final two minutes. Kansas City 17-16
EARLY SUNDAY
Chicago at Carolina (+3.5), o/u 47.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
The Bears took a big step forward in Ben Johnson's first season, improving from five wins to 11 in the regular season and then winning their first playoff game since the 2010 campaign before bowing out in the divisional round against the Rams. Caleb Williams began to look the part of a franchise QB, generating 30 total touchdowns instead of the 20 he came up with as a rookie, and his decision-making under Johnson's tutelage showed signs of improvement even as his completion rate slid below 60 percent, an untenable mark in the modern game but one fueled by a combination of his growing pains and drops by his pass-catchers. Chicago tightened up his target tree in the offseason by dealing DJ Moore to Buffalo, leaving Williams with a trio of top options who are developing right along with him in Rome Odunze, Luther Burden and Colston Loveland. Loveland's the one with the loudest preseason buzz thanks to a huge finish to 2025 while Odunze was sidelined, but any of the three (and maybe even all three) could pop if the passing game gets to the same level Johnson had the Lions humming at. D'Andre Swift is kind of the forgotten man in the offense as a Great Value Jahmyr Gibbs, but he's coming off a career season of 1,386 scrimmage yards and 10 total TDs. Perhaps even more overlooked was the job Dennis Allen did with the defense last year — the Bears led the league in takeaways despite lacking a consistent pass rush and dealing with significant injuries in the secondary. Those injury issues have carried forward into 2026 somewhat, but getting a healthy Jaylon Johnson back at one starting spot will help a great deal, and first-round pick Dillon Thieneman is a dark horse Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate at safety — veteran Kevin Byard, the man he's replacing, racked up 93 tackles and seven INTs in Allen's scheme.
The Panthers also made the playoffs last season with a first overall pick under center before getting knocked out by the Rams, but they did it by being the least-bad team in the NFC South, not by actually being good. Dave Canales has won 13 games total in his two years as head coach, and while there's the usual talk of things being pointed in the right direction yadda yadda yadda, his seat's got be getting at least a little warm. Bryce Young's numbers ticked up in 2025, but in three NFL seasons he's never topped a 6.3 YPA and just barely got to 3,000 passing yards last year, and he had to all but abandon deep throws to become a dink-and-dunker to do it. Carolina did pick up the fifth-year option on his rookie contract in April, but the fact that there was even some question whether they might do it shows how slow his development has been. It hasn't helped that the front office's efforts to bolster Young's supporting cast have mainly been flops — Tetairoa McMillan looks like a keeper, but 2024 first-round pick Xavier Legette has been a bust, 2024 second-round pick Jonathon Brooks hasn't been able to get on the field and 2026 third-round pick Chris Brazzell is already hurt too. These two teams will always be linked by the trade that brought Young to the Panthers and handed Williams to the Bears along with a bushel of additional assets (Moore, Burden, starting right tackle Darnell Wright, starting corner Tyrique Stevenson and other depth players), and so far it's looking like one of the worst deals in recent NFL history.
Key Info
CHI injury report: WR Rome Odunze (questionable, calf), CB Kyler Gordon (PUP, calf), S Coby Bryant (IR, knee), S Xavier Woods (questionable, groin)
CAR injury report: LT Ikem Ekwonu (PUP, knee), RT Taylor Moton (NFI, illness), EDGE Nic Scourton (IR, knee), EDGE Patrick Jones (out, back)
Slight lean: TE Colston Loveland (CAR 30th in DVOA vs. TE in 2025)
Slight lean: WR Jalen Coker (CHI 28th in receiving yards per game allowed to WR2s in 2025)
Strong fade: WR Rome Odunze (CAR first in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2025)
Slight fade: WR Xavier Legette (CHI fourth in receptions per game allowed to WR3s in 2025)
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NFL weather report: 20-30 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Swift produced 90 yards and a TD. Williams throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Burden and Loveland. Chuba Hubbard leads the CAR backfield with 60 yards. Young throws for less than 200 yards and a score to Jalen Coker while getting sacked four times, and it takes a Jimmy Horn kickoff return to the house to keep the final score somewhat respectable. Bears 24-17
Tampa Bay (+3.5) at Cincinnati, o/u 50.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
In the end, the Bucs had a pretty successful offseason, though it looked dicey there for a while. Contract squabbles with Baker Mayfield and Vita Vea eventually turned into extensions, while the defense got bolstered in the draft with Rueben Bain and Josiah Trotter, both of whom will get opportunities to make immediate impacts. The loss of future Hall of Famer and franchise icon Mike Evans hurts, but he's 33 and missed nine games last season, and Emeka Egbuka should be able to step into his role in the top wideout duo alongside Chris Godwin. Todd Bowles' act in Tampa Bay doesn't seem to be wearing thin yet, but in four seasons he has yet to top 10 wins in one of the league's consistently weakest divisions and is 1-3 in the playoffs. With the team's wagon now hitched to Mayfield through 2029 at $55 million a year, the pressure is on Bowles to get to the next level.
Somehow, Zac Taylor is now the NFL head coach with the fourth-longest tenure in the league, tied with Matt LaFleur in Green Bay and behind only Andy Reid, Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan. I was going to say "points for loyalty" for Bengals owner Mike Brown, but Trey Hendrickson suddenly appeared behind me as I was typing it and threw my laptop out the window. Taylor's longevity is basically fueled by Joe Burrow's march to the Super Bowl in 2021, and Cincy's 12-win season in 2022. Since then, Burrow's had trouble staying healthy and the team's been unable to get back to the postseason, or even win double-digit games. The best sign of how lucky Taylor's been is offered by his coaching tree, though. The three coaches ahead of him on the list have been factories for future coordinators and head coaches. Even LaFleur has guys like Jeff Hafley in his tree (I won't hold him responsible for Nathaniel Hackett; that debacle seems like it's fully on Aaron Rodgers' head.) In seven years and counting as the helm of the Bengals, Taylor's tree has ... Brian Callahan. Yikes. Coaching talent incubator, he is not. Taylor's still got Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase to lean on, though, and as long as they stay healthy the Bengals will always be a threat. The team also remade the defense this offseason, finally setting Hendrickson free but replacing him with Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen and Boye Mafe up front, while also reinforcing the secondary with safeties Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger.
Key Info
TB injury report: WR Jalen McMillan (doubtful, knee), LB Christian Rozeboom (questionable, foot)
CIN injury report: EDGE Shemar Stewart (doubtful, knee)
Strong lean: WR Tez Johnson (CIN 31st in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2025)
Strong lean: RB Bucky Irving / Kenny Gainwell (CIN 29th in rushing DVOA, 31st in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing yards allowed per game, 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2025)
Slight lean: RB Chase Brown (TB 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2025)
Slight fade: WR Emeka Egbuka (CIN fourth in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2025)
Slight fade: WR Ja'Marr Chase (TB third in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2025)
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NFL weather report: 10-20 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Irving churns out 110 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Mayfield throws for 210 yards and a score to Cade Otton. Brown responds with 90 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Burrow comes out firing, racking up 280 yards and two more touchdowns, one each to Chase and Colbie Young. Bengals 28-23
New Orleans (+6.5) at Detroit, o/u 50.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
The Saints only improved by one win over 2024, but there's a general sense of optimism around the franchise after Kellen Moore's first season in charge. The team seems to have found a starting quarterback outside the first round of the draft in Tyler Shough, taken 40th overall last year, and New Orleans was 5-4 in the games the rookie started. Shough struggled on deep throws, and losing rookie wideout Jordyn Tyson for an indeterminate amount of time before he gets a chance to debut won't help on that front, but Moore has been adept as a coordinator at fitting his scheme to his talent rather than the other way around. That likely bodes well for the volume of Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson on short and intermediate routes, and probably Travis Etienne too after the running back was brought in from Jacksonville to begin the transition away from Alvin Kamara. The questions here are mainly on defense — Brandon Staley's first season as DC was a mixed bag at best, and Kaden Elliss is a downgrade in the middle on Demario Davis, even if he's six years younger. The fact that 37-year-old Cameron Jordan is still the lead dog in the pass rush is worrying, though this should be the year he passes the torch fully to Chase Young. The Saints are doing their best to break from the remnants of the Sean Payton era, and the NFC South remains the most winnable division in the league. I'm not predicting they'll be a surprise playoff team in 2026, but I'm not ruling it out, either.
Two years ago, the Lions looked like the next perennial power in the NFC after going 15-2 in the regular season before getting shocked in the divisional round by Jayden Daniels and the Commanders. That loss proved to be an ill omen. Detroit failed to make the playoffs last year in the brutal NFC North despite a winning record, as the talented offense was merely very good without OC Ben Johnson calling the shots, while the defense was middle of the pack. Head coach Dan Campbell brought in OC Drew Petzing from Arizona, whose run-focused scheme should be great news for Jahmyr Gibbs, not that the star RB needed more reasons for you to draft him. Gibbs has topped 1,800 scrimmage yards with at least 18 total TDs in consecutive seasons, and now he doesn't have David Montgomery siphoning away high-value touches at the goal line. The passing game is no slouch either of course, with Jared Goff slinging it to Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta and on occasion Isaac TeSlaa, and given how the secondary got stripped of talent this offseason (starting cornerback Terrion Arnold kicked to the curb, and starting safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph both set to miss at least a month to begin the season), the stage could be set for some early barn burners.
Key Info
NO injury report: RB Alvin Kamara (questionable, knee), WR Jordyn Tyson (IR, hamstring), EDGE Cameron Jordan (out, hamstring), EDGE Bryan Bresee (IR, knee)
DET injury report: RB Isiah Pacheco (IR, back), C Cade Mays (IR, wrist), EDGE Derrick Moore (questionable, hamstring), S Brian Branch (PUP, Achilles), S Kerby Joseph (PUP, knee)
Slight lean: WR Barion Brown (DET 30th in receptions per game allowed to WR3s in 2025)
Slight lean: WR Jameson Williams (NO 30th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2025)
Slight fade: QB Tyler Shough (DET sixth in passing DVOA in 2025)
Slight fade: RB Jahmyr Gibbs (NO eighth in rushing DVOA, sixth in YPC allowed, second in receiving yards per game allowed to RBs in 2025)
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NFL weather report: indoors
The Scoop: Etienne picks up 70 yards. Shough throws for 220 yards and two TDs, finding Olave and Johnson. Gibbs pieces together 80 yards and a receiving touchdown. Goff throws for 310 yards and two more scores, hitting ARSB and Williams. Lions 27-20
Buffalo at Houston (+1.5), o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
The new Highmark Stadium isn't exactly off to an auspicious start, as the Bills have already had to rip out the grass following two preseason games in which it became very clear the playing surface was not going to cut it. Despite the weather in upstate New York — or rather, because of it, as the team didn't want to lose its "cold-weather tough" identity; there's probably a "toxic masculinity poisoned the grass" joke in there somewhere — the new stadium doesn't have a roof, but it was constructed to reduce the winds, and it was built to be a grass surface after the old digs used artificial turf. Apparently, growing healthy grass didn't factor into the equation, or at least some crucial variable got missed in that equation. Starting the season on the road buys the grounds crew an extra week to get the new surface ready, but imagine the absolute hell that will be unleashed on everyone involved if Josh Allen gets hurt in his first game at the new stadium because of terrible footing. Anyway, that's a Week 2 (and Week 3, and Week 4 ...) problem. The Bills are basically healthy heading into Week 1, and they overhauled their coaching staff in the offseason to try not to waste any more of Allen's prime. Sean McDermott's out, and in his place offensive coordinator Joe Brady gets a promotion, with rising defensive wizard Jim Leonhard coming over from the Broncos to handle DC duties. McDermott's tenure saw the team win 10-plus games and make the playoffs in seven consecutive seasons, but Buffalo could never get over the hump in the postseason. Last season's loss in the divisional round came against Denver, so there's an "if you can't beat 'em, steal their smart guys" element at play here, but Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City account for four of those exits, with Cincy and Houston (way back in the 2019 season to start the streak) picking up the others. If the Mahomes/Reid dynasty has truly waned — the jury's still out on that — then 2026 represents Allen's best opportunity yet to finally reach his first Super Bowl.
One of Allen's biggest roadblocks likely will be his Week 1 opponent, though. The Texans head into 2026 with an elite DeMeco Ryans-guided defense with elite talent up front (Will Anderson, Danielle Hunter) and in the secondary that can shut down anyone, and an offense that, well, needs all the extra possessions the defense cane give it. It's not that Houston's offense is bad, but C.J. Stroud seems to be regressing behind an offensive line that can never seem to get its act together, and his favorite receivers keep getting hurt. Nico Collins' next fully healthy season will be his first, while Tank Dell is just hoping he can get his career going again after his gruesome knee injury in 2024, and promising second-year wideout Jayden Higgins is also done for the year with an ACL tear. The Texans brought in David Montgomery to stabilize the backfield and take some pressure off Stroud, and while he's drawn plenty of preseason buzz, people seem to forget that the reason he wound up in a perfect situation in Detroit as the thunder to Jahmyr Gibbs' lightning is that he kind of flopped as the lead back in Chicago. Houston finished 2025 in the top 6 in yards per play allowed on defense but the bottom 10 in yards per play on offense, and more of the same seems likely in 2026.
Key Info
BUF injury report: no fantasy-relevant injuries
HOU injury report: WR Tank Dell (IR, knee), WR Jayden Higgins (IR, knee), RT Braden Smith (IR, foot), DT Kayden McDonald (questionable, ankle), LB E.J. Speed (PUP, quadriceps)
Slight lean: WR Khalil Shakir (HOU t-25th in receptions per game allowed to WR2s in 2025)
Strong lean: RB David Montgomery (BUF 31st in rushing DVOA, 30th in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed to RBs in 2025)
Strong fade: QB Josh Allen (HOU second in passing DVOA, third in QB rating against, t-first in rushing TDs allowed to QBs in 2025)
Strong fade: RB James Cook (HOU second in rushing DVOA, second in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2025)
Strong fade: TE Dalton Kincaid (HOU second in DVOA vs. TE in 2025)
Slight fade: WR Jaylin Noel (BUF fourth in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2025)
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NFL weather report: indoors
The Scoop: Cook manages 90 yards. Allen throws for less than 200 yards but tosses one TD to DJ Moore while running in another. Montgomery has a strong start to his HOU tenure with 90 yards and a score. Stroud throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns, finding Collins and Kayshon Boutte. Texans 24-23
Baltimore at Indianapolis (+3.5), o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
For the first time in nearly two decades, someone other than John Harbaugh will be on the sideline for the Ravens. After a disappointing 8-9 season, Harbaugh was let go, with Jesse Minter brought in to replace him after serving as the defensive coordinator under John's brother Jim at Michigan and then in the NFL with the Chargers, and spending four years before that as part of John's staff in Baltimore. In other words, not much may change in terms of scheme, but at least the voice relaying it will be different. Declan Doyle, a Sean Payton protege who spent last year as the OC in name only under Ben Johnson, will get the chance to call the shots on the offensive side, and that's the coaching hire that might have the bigger impact if he's ready for the gig. The Ravens still have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, with Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews leading the offense, while Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton are joined on defense by Trey Hendrickson. The offensive line suffered a major blow when Pro Bowl center Tyler Linderbaum split in free agency, and the plan to replace him with 2023 seventh-round pick Jovaughn Gwyn, who didn't start a game in his first three seasons in the league while with Atlanta, seems risky at best. The rest of the line should be solid, however, with 2026 first-round pick Olaivavega Ioane taking over at right guard.
Through 10 weeks last season, the Colts looked like plausible Super Bowl contenders, going 8-2 with both losses coming by a single score on the road. Two more single-score losses coming out of a Week 11 bye, to KC and Houston, took some of the luster off their record, and then when Daniel Jones tore his Achilles in Week 14, that was all she wrote — Indy didn't win another game the rest of the way and missed the playoffs completely. Under the circumstances, the team deciding to declare a mulligan on 2025 and run it back with mainly the same coaching staff and roster makes a lot of sense. Michael Pittman and Zaire Franklin did get traded for cap reasons, with the former being replaced by Keenan Allen and the latter by rookie second-round pick CJ Allen, and full seasons from Sauce Gardner and (hopefully) DeForest Buckner should boost the defense, but the key to the Colts' season will be Jones' health and ability to prove last year's first-half breakout was no fluke. Freed from Brian Daboll's nonsense in New York, Jones set career highs with a 68.0 percent completion rate and 8.1 YPA, and he was on pace to top 4,300 passing yards and 25 TDs heading into that Week 14 contest. He's on track to play in the opener, but new WR1 Alec Pierce, who underwent offseason ankle surgery, might be a little further behind in his recovery. Having Jonathan Taylor in the backfield, and further development from sophomore tight end Tyler Warren, should give the Jones plenty of cushion in the early going, though.
Key Info
BAL injury report: C Danny Pinter (IR, knee), EDGE Nnamdi Madubuike (out, neck), LB Teddye Buchanan (out, knee)
IND injury report: no fantasy-relevant injuries
Slight lean: TE Mark Andrews (IND 27th in DVOA vs. TE in 2025)
Slight lean: WR Alec Pierce (BAL 27th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2025)
Slight fade: RB Derrick Henry (IND second in YPC allowed, seventh in rushing yards per game allowed in 2025)
Slight fade: TE Tyler Warren (BAL ninth in receiving yards per game allowed to TEs in 2025)
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NFL weather report: indoors
The Scoop: Henry bangs out 90 yards but loses a fumble that rookie A.J. Haulcy returns to the house. Jackson throws for 220 yards and a score to Rashod Bateman while running in a TD of his own. Taylor gallops for 110 combined yards and a touchdown. Jones throws for 250 yards and two scores, hitting Pierce (who tops 100 yards) and Warren. Colts 28-20
Cleveland (+8.5) at Jacksonville, o/u 40.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
The Browns have gone all in on finding their new franchise quarterback in next year's draft class. Myles Garrett was traded to the Rams, while resources were instead diverted toward building an offensive line and wide receiver corps that will be ready and waiting for the new guy. Kevin Stefanski was also sent packing after winning just eight games the last two seasons, though he's hardly to blame for the chaos on the roster — that's firmly in the lap of GM Andrew Berry, who somehow still has his job even after sacrificing the team's future five years ago by letting Baker Mayfield walk, trading for Deshaun Watson and handing him a cap-busting contract. That deal still haunts the Browns, even though the last picks involved transferred in 2024 (though via other trades, the Texans still had draft capital related to the deal in 2025), because they can't get rid of Watson. He'll be starting in Week 1 ahead of Shedeur Sanders, and his contract has been restructured in a way that Cleveland can be rid of him next offseason ... provided they swallow an $86 million dead cap hit. In other words, expect the rebuild to continue at least into 2028, if not right up to the team moving into a new indoor stadium in 2029 that will finally keep multiple home games a year from being passing-game wastelands due to the winds howling off Lake Erie. In the meantime, new coach Todd Monken, the former offensive coordinator in Baltimore, will try to switch something productive together out of Watson, promising second-year players Quinshon Judkins and Harold Fannin, veteran wideout Jerry Jeudy and rookie WRs KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston. The defense will be in the hands of Mike Rutenberg, who's been on the staffs of Gus Bradley, Robert Saleh and Raheem Morris among others, and even got his coaching start as an intern under Joe Gibbs in Washington.
Liam Coen's first year running the show in Jacksonville was a perfect inverse of Doug Pederson's last year, as the Jaguars flipped their record from 4-13 to 13-4 and won the AFC South. Trevor Lawrence still put up largely mediocre efficiency numbers, including a 60.9 percent completion rate, but he reached 4,000 passing yards for the third time in five seasons, set a career high with 29 TDs and was absolutely on fire to close out the regular season with an 18:4 TD:INT the final seven weeks as he led the team to an 8-0 finish. Then they came up just short in the playoffs against the Bills, but hey, growing pains and all that. Travis Etienne was allowed to leave in free agency, leaving the backfield in the hands of Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez, but it's the passing game that will lead the way on offense. The Jags' success in 2025 came with serious regression from Brian Thomas and basically nothing from two-way phenom Travis Hunter, who was taken second overall in 2025, so there's plenty of room for improvement if everyone clicks. How likely that is to happen is another question — Coen's offenses in Tampa Bay generally only allowed two targets to thrive, and now those top two targets in Jacksonville looks like Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers. DC Anthony Campanile's unit finished second last season in takeaways and eighth in points per game allowed, but the pass rush seriously underperformed and didn't get any help in the offseason, so the defense seems more likely to take one step back than one step forward unless Hunter proves to be a difference-maker at corner.
Key Info
CLE injury report: RG Teven Jenkins (out, back)
JAC injury report: RG Patrick Mekari (IR, back)
Slight lean: WR Jerry Jeudy (JAC t-31st in receptions per game allowed to WR1s in 2025)
Slight lean: Jaguars DST (second in takeaways, CLE 30th in giveaways, 26th in sacks allowed in 2025)
Strong fade: WR KC Concepcion (JAC first in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2025)
Slight fade: WR Brian Thomas (CLE fourth in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2025)
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NFL weather report: 40-50 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Judkins manages 50 yards. Watson throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice, but he does find Fannin for a score. Tuten leads the JAC backfield with 90 yards and a TD. Lawrence throws for 300 yards and three touchdowns, two to Washington (who tops 100 yards) and one to Brenton Strange. Jaguars 31-10
Atlanta (+3.5) at Pittsburgh, o/u 42.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
Well, we didn't even make it to Week 1 without a starting quarterback getting hurt. (I guess technically Sam Darnold went down first, but that happened during the Seahawks' first game.) Tua Tagovailoa suffered an oblique injury during practice Thursday, and with Michael Penix not yet fully recovered from last year's knee injury, that means the Falcons will begin the Kevin Stefanski era with former Cowboys backup Cooper Rush under center. Just the way they drew it up! Rush is a 32-year-old with a winning record (9-7), but he's a game manager with a noodle arm who has a 6.0 YPA on 384 pass attempts since 2023. That almost certainly means a heavy dose of Bijan Robinson on the ground, and maybe even more Brian Robinson that you'd expect, rather than high volume for Drake London and Kyle Pitts, but that's the kind of game plan Stefanski was used to in Cleveland. The big question is whether he has the kind of defense in Atlanta to make it work. Jeff Ulbrich was kept around as DC, and he helped the unit finish second in sacks last season, but two of his key pass rushers will be out to begin the year in Jalon Walker and James Pearce, and late-camp signing Za'Darius Smith mat not be ready to handle more than situational snaps. The Falcons didn't really excel in any other area, and while top draft pick Avieon Terrell should be able to help his brother A.J. Terrell right out of the gate, there's still a lot of uncertainty on that side of the ball.
Mike Tomlin's tenure had pretty clearly run its course, but the Steelers parted with tradition when they hired old retread Mike McCarthy to replace him, rather than finding a young up-and-coming coach who could run the show for the long haul — the kind of coach Tomlin had been back in 2007, or Bill Cowher before him. The decision may have been based on a desire to keep Aaron Rodgers happy, but maybe they should have checked with the Jets on what happens when you hire a coach to appease Rodgers. The former Packers and Cowboys head honcho takes over a roster with some upgrades around the edges — Rico Dowdle in the backfield, Michael Pittman as the 2B receiver to DK Metcalf's 2A on a team that lacks a real WR1, Jamel Dean in the secondary — but McCarthy himself is the biggest addition, as the hometown boy's track record suggests he'll raise the floor without materially affecting the ceiling. In other words, we'll get to see if the Steelers have a ceiling above the 9-10 wins and a playoff one-and-done, or if it might be time to bite the bullet and blow it up.
Key Info
ATL injury report: QB Tua Tagovailoa (out, oblique), QB Michael Penix (out, knee), EDGE Jalon Walker (IR, knee), EDGE James Pearce (out, suspension), EDGE Za'Darius Smith (questionable, shoulder), CB Billy Bowman (out, Achilles)
PIT injury report: CB Joey Porter (questionable, back), S DeShon Elliott (IR, undisclosed)
Slight lean: WR Drake London (PIT 30th in receptions per game allowed to WR1s in 2025)
Slight lean: WR Roman Wilson (ATL 29th in receptions per game allowed to WR3s in 2025)
Strong fade: WR Jahan Dotson (PIT second in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2025)
Slight fade: TE Pat Freiermuth / Darnell Washington (ATL fourth in receptions per game allowed to TEs in 2025)
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NFL weather report: 25-35 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Bijan collects 90 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Rush throws for less than 200 yards. Jaylen Warren leads the PIT backfield with 70 yards and a TD. Rodgers throws for 210 yards and a score to Metcalf. Steelers 20-13
New York Jets (+1.5) at Tennessee, o/u 38.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
All I can say is, Jets gonna Jets. Aaron Glenn, a cornerback during his playing days who had been defensive coordinator for the Lions, took over as head coach last season and led the team to a miserable 3-14 record while overseeing a defense that somehow went the entire year without an interception. You would think being historically bad in the one area he should be good in would cost him his job (to say nothing of the general sense that he was simply in over his head) but nope, Glenn's back for round two, only this time without Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams on the roster. Eep. He's handed the reins of the offense over to Frank Reich, who lasted 11 games at his last job with Carolina when he was supposed to mentor Bryce Young, but hey, at least this time he doesn't have a potential future franchise QB to mess up. Instead, the Jets signed Geno Smith to be under center after he got chased out of Las Vegas, bringing the 35-year-old's career full circle. This is all a very transparent attempt to land the best draft pick possible in 2027 and begin the rebuild in earnest, really — Gang Green holds three first-round picks next year, including the Colts' selection and the better of the Cowboys and Packers. Glenn being the lamest of lame duck coaches won't help the fantasy value of players like Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, and the odds of them getting traded the way Williams and Gardner were last year looms large, but at least they get a last-place schedule.
The Titans also finished last season at 3-14, as Brian Callahan got the sack after just six games and Mike McCoy stewarded the team the rest of the way. All things considered, Cam Ward didn't do too badly amid the chaos, throwing just seven INTs in 17 games while producing 17 total TDs. His 59.8 percent completion rate and 5.9 YPA were atrocious, but he had no one to throw to and little time to find those no ones, getting sacked 55 times. The coaching staff is now chin deep in veteran voices, with Robert Saleh as head coach, Gus Bradley adding to his scheme as DC and Brian Daboll back in the OC role he's better suited for after crumbling as the Giants' head coach. Even special teams coordinator John Fassel has some brief head coaching experience (three games with the interim tag for the Rams back in 2016). That's a lot of support for a relatively young roster, but in terms of overall talent, Tennessee's still climbing out of a hole. Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson might be the third-worst 1-2 duo in the league at wide receiver (hard to top Miami and Vegas in that category), the Tony Pollard-Tyjae Spears backfield remains uninspiring, and Jeffery Simmons doesn't have a lot of help on the defensive side. This is a long-term project, but at least they've started it, so from a big-picture perspective they're one step ahead of the Jets.
Key Info
NYJ injury report: no fantasy-relevant injuries
TEN injury report: LB Cedric Gray (out, concussion)
Strong lean: WR Garrett Wilson (TEN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2025)
Strong lean: WR Adonai Mitchell (TEN 26th in DVOA vs. WR2, 31st in DVOA vs. deep throws in 2025)
Strong lean: QB Cam Ward (NYJ 32nd in passing DVOA, 32nd in QB rating against, 32nd in passing TDs allowed in 2025)
Slight fade: Jets DST (32nd in takeaways, 31st in sacks in 2025)
Slight fade: WR Wan'Dale Robinson (NYJ t-second in receptions per game allowed to WR3s in 2025)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: 15-25 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Hall manages 50 yards but does get into the end zone. Smith throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice, one of which Alontae Taylor returns to the house. Pollard leads the TEN backfield with 70 yards and a score, while Spears adds 50 yards. Ward throws for 200 yards and a touchdown to Tate. Titans 24-10
LATE SUNDAY
Arizona (+9.5) at Los Angeles Chargers, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
The Cardinals are one of the teams making little effort to disguise the fact that they're aiming for the top of the 2027 draft, and landing a new franchise QB. Jacoby Brissett has a career year in his age-32 season as the replacement for Kyler Murray, and the front office's response was to low-ball him in contract extension talks, with the two sides eventually just restructuring the remaining year on his current deal in late July. Jonathan Gannon and Drew Petzing were let go, with Mike LaFleur hired from Sean McVay's staff to be the new head coach, and assisting him as OC to mold the new scheme will be ... Nathaniel Hackett??? Hoo boy. Third overall pick Jeremiyah Love steps in as the new focal point of the offense, assuming he's fully healthy for the opener, but the pieces of the passing game are mostly intact with Trey McBride as Brissett's top option, Marvin Harrison still trying to figure things out and Michael Wilson still not getting enough respect. Arizona was one of the league's four 3-14 teams last year for a reason (well, a lot of reasons), and while some of them went out the door with Gannon, there are still too many holes on defense to think a big leap forward is coming on that side of the ball, even if 2025 first-round pick Walter Nolen stays healthy. It'll be up to Love, Harrison and LaFleur to re-write the narrative on offense if the Cards are going to drastically overperform.
It wouldn't be a Chargers offseason without a traumatic offensive line injury. Tyler Biadasz, signed to stabilize the interior of the line in free agency, had a teammate fall on his leg during training camp, and he's done for the season. As a result, 2026 second-round pick Jake Slaughter will be pressed into duty at center maybe a little earlier than the Bolts would have liked, but on the bright side both starting tackles, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, are back to protect Justin Herbert. Jim Harbaugh's first two seasons in charge have both resulted in 11 wins and a one-and-done in the playoffs, and to get over that hump, Mike McDaniel was brought in to run the offense. His Dolphins teams weren't able to keep their foot on the gas the last two years the way they did in 2022 and 2023, but it's hard to say whether that's because the league figured out his scheme, or because Tyreek Hill wasn't the same guy. (Then again, if McDaniel's scheme needs a peak Tyreek Hill to work properly, does it really matter whether the league has him figured out?) While there's no Cheetah on his new Bolts' roster, unless rookie Brenen Thompson shows he's got more to offer than a 4.26 40-yard time, there is a lot of talent for McDaniel to work with. He's got Herbert tweaking his footwork to get rid of the ball quicker, and players like Ladd McConkey and Omarion Hampton can do plenty of damage in open space. Harbaugh's defense hovered on the fringes of the top 10 in most key categories, but it didn't get much in the way of reinforcements in the offseason — Odafe Oweh was replaced by Akheem Mesidor, but there were no wholesale additions.
Key Info
ARI injury report: RB Jeremiyah Love (questionable, ankle), RB James Conner (IR, foot), RG Isaiah Adams (out, knee), RG Chase Bisontis (IR, knee)
LAC injury report: C Tyler Biadasz (IR, knee), EDGE Tuli Tuipulotu (questionable, hip)
Slight lean: TE Trey McBride (LAC 25th in DVOA vs. TE in 2025)
Strong lean: TE Oronde Gadsden (ARI 31st in DVOA vs. TE in 2025)
Strong fade: WR Michael Wilson (LAC third in DVOA vs. WR2, first in DVOA vs. deep throws in 2025)
Strong fade: WR Kendrick Bourne (LAC second in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2025)
Slight fade: WR Tre' Harris (ARI second in receiving yards per game allowed to WR3s in 2025)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: indoors
The Scoop: Love ekes out 60 yards in his debut. Brissett throws for 220 yards and two TDs, one each to McBride and Harrison. Hampton surges for 110 combined yards and a score. Herbert throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, finding McConkey and Quentin Johnston. Chargers 24-20
Miami (+3.5) at Las Vegas, o/u 40.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Unlike some of the other teams in clear rebuild situations, the Dolphins shelled out semi-big bucks for a quarterback this offseason, signing Malik Willis to a three-year, $67.5 million contract to follow Jeff Hafley from Green Bay, in a plotline stolen directly from Any Given Sunday. That's not chump change, but when Baker Mayfield is getting $55 million a season, $22.5 million isn't enough to stop Miami from drafting a QB next year if someone it likes falls in their lap. Willis did look good in his limited opportunities with the Packers, but 89 pass attempts the last two years is an awfully small sample to rely on when deciding whether someone is a viable starter. Even Willie Beaman has a better resume before getting that big deal from Albuquerque. Hafley will run the defense, while former Texans OC Bobby Slowik, from Kyle Shanahan's coaching tree, marshals the offense after being on Mike McDaniel's staff last year. It should mean some continuity for De'Von Achane, and likely a massive touch volume because there really isn't anyone else to give the ball to. Willis' group of pass catchers features a couple rookies in Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell, Malik Washington (career high of 317 receiving yards), Jalen Tolbert (a massive 49-610-7 line in 2024 for the Cowboys) and tight end Greg Dulcich (career high 411 yards as a rookie for the Broncos in 2022). Those three personal bests combined equal 1,338 yards — which would be the fourth-best season of Tyreek Hill's career and the second-best of Jaylen Waddle's, if you want an indicator of how far the room has fallen. The strength of the defense is in the linebackers, which generally isn't great for anything but their IDP values, but Jordyn Brooks and rookie Jacob Rodriguez should be a fun duo to watch, at least. That's pretty much the state of things here. The Dolphins may not be very good, but they could be fun.
The Raiders took a look at all the other teams already playing for 2027 and figured they were in no rush to get better, so Fernando Mendoza will be the rare quarterback taken first overall who won't be tossed right into the fire. Instead, he'll get to watch Kirk Cousins try to prove he still have something to offer for a few weeks. Vegas has a late bye (Week 13), and the team's first-half home games are all against tough opponents (KC in Week 4, Buffalo in Week 6, the Rams in Week 7) so there's no obvious spot to drop Mendoza into the lineup for maximum PR value. If they want the cushiest possible spot, it's probably Week 8 on the road versus the Jets. That's Klint Kubiak's decision, of course, not mine, but the new head coach should get a nice honeymoon period after leading the Seahawks' offense to a Super Bowl win. Cousins won't have Brock Bowers to throw to for a week or two either, as the star tight end needed another surgery on the knee that limited him last year. That leaves Cousins working with a lackluster WR corps featuring Tre Tucker, Jack Bech and free-agent signing Jalen Nailor, plus TE Michael Maye., so just like with Achane, Ashton Jeanty figures to get a hefty workload as the one true threat in the lineup. The Raiders shelled out more than $120 million in contracts for linebackers Nakobe Dean, Quay Walker and Kwity Paye, while Maxx Crosby continues to insist staying put was the best possible outcome for him, so new DC Rob Leonard, an internal hire who got his start under Tom Coughlin with the Giants, has some pieces to work with.
Key Info
MIA injury report: CB Storm Duck (PUP, knee)
LV injury report: TE Brock Bowers (out, knee)
Slight lean: WR Malik Washington (LV 26th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2025)
Strong lean: WR Jalen Nailor (MIA 30th in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2025)
Slight fade: TE Greg Dulcich (LV third in receptions per game allowed to TEs in 2025)
Slight fade: WR Jack Bech (MIA first in receptions per game allowed to WR2s in 2025)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: indoors
The Scoop: Achane dashes for 110 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Willis throws for less than 200 yards but does find Washington for a score. Jeanty gets held to 60 yards. Cousins throws for less than 200 yards as well, hitting Nailor for a touchdown. Dolphins 21-13
Green Bay (+1.5) at Minnesota, o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Last year's Micah Parsons trade was supposed to put the Packers over the top, but instead they would up with nine wins and another first-round playoff exit. Coach Matt LaFleur has been largely successful in his seven seasons at the helm, but he's 1-3 in the postseason since Aaron Rodgers left, so Jordan Love still has some work to do to prove he's truly next in line in that storied lineage. Unlike 2025, this season is kicking off with a lot of uncertainty over where Green Bay stands among the NFC powerhouses. Josh Jacobs is on the commissioner's exempt list after a May arrest, which means the backfield will be led by MarShawn Lloyd, a 2024 third-round pick who's been healthy enough to handle all of seven touches in his lone NFL appearance. There isn't a lot of depth behind him, either — Chris Brooks is on the roster mainly for his special-teams value, and Kaleb Johnson, a 2025 third-round pick the Steelers gave up on after just one year, had a putrid 2.5 YPC in his debut. The Packers did Marie Kondo their wide receiver room in the offseason, keeping only those pass-catchers who sparked joy, and that leaves Love with the tight trio of Christian Watson, Matthew Golden and Jayden Reed. Tight end Tucker Kraft, who missed half of 2025 due to a torn ACL, is healthy and might end up being Love's most reliable target, though. Golden's the upside hope after being selected 23rd overall last year, but his speed and physical tools haven't translated into much production going back to his college days. Jeff Hafley's departure as DC left a vacancy that LaFleur filled with former Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon, who did pretty well with a star-studded unit in Philly at the beginning of the decade. Parsons is starting the season on the shelf, but there's still talent at all three levels, including second-round corner Brandon Cisse and former Colt tackling machine Zaire Franklin at linebacker.
Kevin O'Connell's reputation as a quarterback whisperer will be put the the test once again in 2026. J.J. McCarthy isn't panning out, in part due to injuries, so the Vikings went back to the veteran retread well for Kyler Murray, whose career had stagnated in Arizona. O'Connell worked his magic with Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold, and even to an extent Carson Wentz, so Murray's in an ideal situation to turn things around. Murray will certainly have a better group of pass-catchers than he ever had with the Cardinals. Justin Jefferson proved not to be QB-proof after all last season, but he's still in his prime and is backed by Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings, while tight end T.J. Hockenson is a few years removed from a 95-960-5 line, and the backfield duo of Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason are capable of big plays as well. DC Brian Flores' defense finished top 7 last year in points per game allowed, yards per play allowed and sacks, and it wasn't far off in takeaways either. The Vikes used most of their draft capital on that side of the ball as well, headlined by first-round defensive tackle Caleb Banks, and while Murray gets most of the headlines, it's the defense that will keep them competitive while the offense builds chemistry.
Key Info
GB injury report: RB Josh Jacobs (out, suspension), LG Aaron Banks (questionable, knee), RT Zach Bako-Bewele (questionable, knee), EDGE Micah Parsons (PUP, knee)
MIN injury report: no fantasy-relevant injuries
Slight lean: RB MarShawn Lloyd (MIN 24th in rushing yards allowed to RBs in 2025)
Slight lean: WR Jordan Addison (GB 29th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2025)
Strong fade: QB Jordan Love (MIN third in passing DVOA, second in passing TDs allowed in 2025)
Slight fade: TE T.J. Hockenson (GB eighth in DVOA vs. TE in 2025)
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NFL weather report: indoors
Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 MIN, average score 24-20 GB, average margin of victory 14 points. The Packers are 1-4 in the last five games at US Bank Stadium
The Scoop: Lloyd pops for 80 yards and a touchdown. Love throws for 260 yards and two scores, finding Kraft and Reed. Jones leads the MIN backfield with 70 yards. Murray throws for less than 200 yards but hits Jefferson for one TD while running in another. Packers 24-23
Washington (+5) at Philadelphia, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
To say things didn't go according to plan for the Commanders last season would be a massive understatement. Jayden Daniels couldn't stay on the field and played only seven games, while Terry McLaurin wasn't his usual self after a hold-in, the backfield never really got sorted out and the defense failed to generate the volume of splash plays a Dan Quinn unit needs to stay effective. That first factor remains the most important, and Washington fans probably already have that sick feeling of deja vu in their stomachs from the RGIII era, but Daniels' health issues were a collection of smaller bumps and bruises rather than one catastrophic injury. It's possible it was just a run of bad luck, and not the start of a trend. The front office did make real efforts to bolster his supporting cast, but new left tackle Laremy Tunsil couldn't make it to Week 1 before tearing his triceps, so his Commanders debut date remains up in the air. Daniels does have more targets now than just McLaurin, though — Stefon Diggs is the big addition, with Chig Okonkwo, Rachaad White and third-round pick Antonio Williams also joining the party. New OC David Blough is a massive question, but it wouldn't be hard to improve on Kliff Kingsbury's efforts. Quinn's defense also got some big reinforcements in edge rushers Odafe Oweh and K'Lavon Chaisson, safety Nick Cross and first-round linebacker Sonny Styles, so he's basically out of excuses. If Washington struggles again, it will be in the market for a new head coach.
It was the usual offseason for the Eagles. Nick Sirianni hired a new offensive coordinator, plucking Sean Mannion from Matt LaFleur's staff in Green Bay, and they traded a big name in A.J. Brown so they could lock up a younger star in Jordan Davis while adding depth with edge rusher Jonathan Greenard, wideout Dontayvion Wicks and corner Riq Woolen. The draft brought in another couple pass-catchers in WR Makai Lemon and TE Eli Stowers, both value picks at their draft slots, and the offensive line continues to purr along as one of the best units in the league. Philly's new offense will revolve even more around Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley, and the curiously undersized receiver room — Wicks is the biggest WR expected to get regular snaps at 6-foot-1, 206,— suggests Mannion might lean into Hurts' tendency to shy away from the middle of the field when throwing the ball to his wideouts. The Eagles have made the playoffs five consecutive seasons and made the Super Bowl twice, winning one, and there's little reason to think they won't be in the mix again, but Brown's departure also seems to leave the roster somewhat lacking in elite performers.
Key Info
WAS injury report: LT Laremy Tunsil (IR, triceps), EDGE Dorance Armstrong (out, suspension), CB Trey Amos (IR, ankle)
PHI injury report: EDGE Jonathan Greenard (out, pectoral)
Slight lean: WR Stefon Diggs (PHI 31st in receiving yards per game allowed to WR2s in 2025)
Strong lean: TE Dallas Goedert (WAS 32nd in DVOA vs. TE in 2025)
Strong fade: WR Terry McLaurin (PHI second in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2025)
Strong fade: TE Chig Okonkwo (PHI first in DVOA vs. TE in 2025)
No PHI fades. The WAS defense wasn't good at anything in 2025
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NFL weather report: 5-25 percent chance of rain
Head-to-head record, last five years including playoffs: 8-3 PHI, average score 29-23 PHI, average margin of victory 10 points. Two of the Commanders' three wins during that time have come on the road, including a 24-17 victory in Week 18 when the starting QBs were Josh Johnson (no, not that one) versus Tanner McKee
The Scoop: Jacory Croskey-Merritt leads the WAS backfield with 70 yards. Daniels throws for 200 yards and a TD to Diggs while running one in himself. Barkley piles up 130 yards and two touchdowns. Hurts throws for 230 yards and two scores, one each to Goedert and DeVonta Smith. Eagles 28-20
SUNDAY NIGHT
Dallas at New York Giants (+2.5), o/u 48.0 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
The Cowboys' defense was incredibly bad last season. Historically bad. Trading Micah Parsons right before the start of the year certainly didn't help, but the unit lacked depth and talent at all three levels and DC Matt Eberflus seemed to simply give up sometime in the first couple months. Everything went wrong — free-agent signings like Kenneth Murray, who were supposed to raise the floor, instead hastened its collapse, while DaRon Bland and Trevon Diggs, record-setting ballhawks a couple years prior, combined for one INT. Even the mid-season trade for Quinnen Williams didn't turn things around much. Dak Prescott and head coach Brian Schottenheimer probably deserve more credit than they got for dragging the team to a 7-9-1 record despite that albatross of a defense, but there were encouraging developments on the offensive side. George Pickens and Javonte Williams both had career years, looking like the players they were originally drafted to be by the Steelers and Broncos, respectively, while Prescott had his third career 4,500-yard, 30-TD campaign and CeeDee Lamb delivered his fifth straight 1,000-yard season despite missing three games to an ankle injury and losing volume to Pickens. If new DC Christian Parker, a rising star under Vic Fangio in Philly, and offseason additions like first-round pick Caleb Downs and veteran Jalen Thompson and Rashan Gary can merely get the defense to a normal level of bad, this is probably a playoff team — assuming any gains aren't given back by regression on offense, of course.
The Giants finally got rid of Brian Daboll, though keeping GM Joe Shoen says they merely addressed the symptom and not the cause. John Harbaugh, who's time in Baltimore ran out, gets a chance to jump right back on the horse, but he maybe has a bigger task ahead of him than he anticipated. Jaxson Dart is very much not a polished, finished product at QB, and his group of pass-catchers isn't that impressive until Malik Nabers shows he's fully healthy. The team was so impressed by Cam Skattebo's rookie campaign that they signed Najee Harris late in camp, and the veteran joins a backfield committee that also has Devin Singletary and Tyrone Tracy looking for snaps. Did I mention that Matt Nagy is the new OC? The guy who couldn't figure out what to do with Patrick Mahomes will now be guiding Dart's development. The defense has talent at all three levels, and that's where Harbaugh should have the biggest impact, but that could just mean they lose a bunch of low-scoring games unless someone, or maybe multiple someones, break out on offense.
Key Info
DAL injury report: LG Tyler Smith (IR, thumb)
NYG injury report: WR Malik Nabers (questionable, knee), WR Calvin Austin (IR, knee)
Strong lean: RB Javonte Williams (NYG 32nd in rushing DVOA, 32nd in YPC allowed, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed in 2025)
Strong lean: QB Jaxson Dart (DAL 31st in passing DVOA, 32nd in passing yards per game allowed, 31st in passing TDs allowed in 2025)
Strong lean: WR Malachi Fields (DAL 31st in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2025)
Strong lean: WR Darnell Mooney (DAL 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3, 32nd in DVOA vs. deep throws in 2025)
Slight fade: TE Jake Ferguson (NYG fifth in DVOA vs. TE in 2025)
No NYG fades. The DAL defense has a big hole to climb out of just to get to mediocre
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: 5-10 percent chance of rain
Head-to-head record, last five years: 9-1 DAL, average score 31-19 DAL, average margin of victory 16 points. The Giants' 34-17 victory in Week 18 last season, when Joe Milton played half the game at QB for the Cowboys and plenty of other starters on both sides saw limited or no action, ended a nine-game win streak for Dallas
The Scoop: Williams bangs out 80 yards and a score. Prescott throws for 320 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Lamb and Emari Demercado. Skattebo leads the NYG backfield with 90 yards and a TD, while Singletary also gets into the end zone. Dart throws for 230 yards and a score to Nabers, but he also throws a late INT that costs the Giants a chance to put the game away in regulation. Cowboys 30-27 in OT
THURSDAY NIGHT
San Francisco (+3.5) vs. L.A. Rams in Melbourne, o/u 48.5 –
Thursday, 8:35 p.m. EDT
Kyle Shanahan really should have won Coach of the Year last season. The healthiest player on the roster was Christian McCaffrey, but even with injuries wrecking the continuity of both the offense and defense, the 49ers still won 12 games in the regular season and only got beat in the playoffs by the eventual champs. As is usual for San Francisco in the offseason, there were plenty of changes, as Raheem Morris replaces Robert Saleh as DC, while the wide receiver room got a makeover with Mike Evans and a repatriated Deebo Samuel replacing Jauan Jennings and Kendrick Bourne at the top of the depth chart. It's injuries that likely will be the story for the team in 2026, though. CMac handled an ominous, and career-high, 453 touches between the regular season and playoffs, and any time he's seen a workload that starts with a four, he's missed double-digit games the following year. Evans is 33 and was banged up last season with Tampa Bay as well as in camp this year, while George Kittle is 32 and coming off an Achilles tear. Brock Purdy is usually good for a few missed weeks, and injuries are again littering the defensive side of the ball, though the Niners should at least get Nick Bosa back after he managed just two sacks in three games in 2025 before needing ACL surgery. Even Shanahan himself wasn't immune, getting into a car accident in July that kept him away from camp for a significant stretch. He and his staff will probably keep things humming somehow, but the team's run of success (double-digit wins and playoff runs, including two Super Bowl appearances, in five of the last seven seasons) increasingly feels like a house of cards that could collapse at any time.
The Rams re-wrote the rules for going all in this summer. Trades brought in Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie to take the defense to another level, at which point Aaron Donald said, "Hey, that looks like fun, let me come out of retirement." Donald won't be quite ready to play in Week 1, but that's still five combined Defensive Players of the Year Awards joining the roster (Garrett won in 2023 and 2025, and Donald in 2017, 2018 and 2020). After Sean McVay found success running three-tight end sets last season, the Rams added another TE to the room in second-round pick Max Klare, who joins Colby Parkinson, Terrance Ferguson, Tyler Higbee and Davis Allen in a game-changing unit that gives the opposition absolutely no clue whether a play is going to be a run or a pass. That schematic tweak helped Matthew Stafford win an MVP Award at 37 years old, while still allowing Puka Nacua, Davante Adams and Kyren Williams to rack up big numbers. There might be a question or two along the O-line after right tackle Rob Havenstein retired and no big additions were made, but otherwise this is a roster built to win it all in 2026. The Week 1 matchup in Australia will also provide another data point to coaches on the best way to approach international contests — the Niners flew in a week early to let their body clocks adjust, while the Rams slept on the plane as they waited until the day before game to head Down Under.
Key Info
SF injury report: RB Isaac Guerendo (PUP, pectoral), WR Ricky Pearsall (IR, knee), WR Christian Kirk (IR, calf), TE George Kittle (questionable, Achilles), FB Kyle Juszczyk (questionable, finger), EDGE Nick Bosa (questionable, knee), EDGE Mykel Williams (PUP, knee), DT Alfred Collins (out, knee), LB Dre Greenlaw (questionable, Achilles), CB Renardo Green (questionable, hamstring)
LAR injury report: EDGE Myles Garrett (questionable, knee), DT Aaron Donald (out, coach's decision), CB Jaylen Watson (questionable, toe)
Slight lean: WR Mike Evans (LAR t-25th in receptions per game allowed to WR1s in 2025)
Strong lean: WR Davante Adams (SF 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2025)
Slight fade: TE George Kittle (LAR third in DVOA vs. TE in 2025)
Slight fade: 49ers DST (SF 32nd in sacks, LAR t-first in sacks allowed in 2025)
Slight fade: TE Colby Parkinson / Tyler Higbee (SF fourth in DVOA vs. TE in 2025)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: 10-15 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain
Head-to-head record, last five years including playoffs: 6-5 SF, average score 24-20 SF, average margin of victory nine points. LAR have won four of the last five meetings, with the teams trading road victories in 2025
The Scoop: McCaffrey piles up 110 combined yards and a score. Purdy throws for 250 yards and two TDs, finding Evans and Kittle. Williams responds with 100 yards and a touchdown, while Blake Corum also punches in a score. Stafford throws for 300 yards and two TDs, hitting Nacua and Adams. Rams 34-24
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
New England (+3.5) at Seattle, o/u 44.5 – Wednesday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
We're doing Wednesday nights now, huh? I guess when you have 87 media partners, you need to pump out all the content you can, but taking cues from the CFL and spreading your games willy-nilly all over the calendar when your brand was built on ruling Sundays doesn't seem like a great strategy in the long run to me. Anyway, the NFL is at least kicking things off in 2026 with a Super Bowl rematch, as the champs welcome the Patriots to Seattle after a 29-13 spanking in February. The big changes for the Seahawks are on the offensive side, as OC Klint Kubiak took the head coaching job in Las Vegas and got replaced by Kyle Shanahan padawan Brian Fleury, who spent the last seven years with the 49ers doing quality control before getting bumped up to tight ends coach. Seattle's backfield also got revamped, with Kenneth Walker cashing in his Super Bowl MVP performance for a big free-agent contract with Kansas City and Zach Charbonnet still recovering from an ACL tear. That opens the door for rookie Jadarian Price to take on a big role right away, though there are questions about how big a workload he can handle given his smaller frame and the fact that he worked behind Jeremiyah Love at Notre Dame. The last time the organization plucked a running back with a commerce-themed last name late in the first round who lacked elite athletic traits, it didn't exactly work out either — Rashaad Penny never managing to handle more than 119 carries in an NFL season during his injury-plagued career. Mike Macdonald's defense should remain elite, though, after finishing first in PPG allowed and second in yards per play allowed, even if the secondary is banged up coming into Week 1, and Sam Darnold still has Jaxon Smith-Njigba to chuck it to.
I always have close to zero confidence in what the numbers say during the first few weeks of a new season, simply because we don't really know who anybody is yet, but rematches like this offer some degree of security. The narrative around the Patriots as they emerged from the pack in the AFC is that they were being boosted by a weak schedule, and facing wounded opponents like the Chargers and Broncos during the postseason didn't really change anyone's perceptions, and their win over the Texans owed as much to C.J. Stroud's collapse as it did to Drake Maye's performance. New England swapped out Stefon Diggs for A.J. Brown in the offseason, an upgrade for sure, and brought in Romeo Doubs to give Maye another solid target, while Mike Vrabel reunited with an old friend from his Titans days in safety Kevin Byard. The interior offensive line also got remade, a necessary move after Maye got sacked 47 times during the regular season and a stunning 21 times in four postseason contests. The young QB remains the key to the team's fortunes, and protection issues aside, his breakout in 2025 looked very legit. TreVeyon Henderson will be missing from the backfield in Week 1, but Vrabel would probably rather just grind it out with Rhamondre Stevenson anyway.
Key Info
NE injury report: RB TreVeyon Henderson (out, ankle), Harold Landry (PUP, undisclosed)
SEA injury report: RB Zach Charbonnet (PUP, knee), WR Tory Horton (questionable, hamstring), WR Jake Bobo (IR, knee), S Nick Emmanwori (questionable, ankle), S Ty Okada (out, hamstring), S Bud Clark (IR, ankle)
Slight lean: TE Hunter Henry (SEA 27th in receiving yards allowed to TEs in 2025)
Strong lean: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (NE 31st in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2025)
Strong fade: QB Drake Maye (SEA first in passing DVOA, fourth in QB rating against in 2025)
Strong fade: RB Rhamondre Stevenson (SEA first in rushing DVOA, third in rushing yards per game allowed, second in rushing TDs allowed in 2025)
Strong fade: WR A.J. Brown (SEA first in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2025)
Slight fade: WR Rashid Shaheed (NE fifth in receiving yards per game allowed to WR2s in 2025)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: 1-5 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Stevenson bangs out 70 yards and a touchdown, but he also loses a fumble that Drake Thomas returns to the house. Maye throws for 220 yards and a TD to Henry. Price leads the SEA backfield with 100 scrimmage yards, but Emanuel Wilson vultures a goal-line score. Darnold throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to AJ Barner. Seahawks 27-20
2025 record: 173-98-1 (.638), 143-121-8 ATS (.542), 141-130-1 o/u (.520)
