NFL Game Previews Week 4: Falcons-Saints Matchup, Picks & Fantasy Tips

MONDAY NIGHT

Atlanta (+2.5) at New Orleans, o/u 48.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

I guess that settles that. Michael Penix made his season debut last week and led the Falcons to their first win of the season, a resounding 35-14 victory over the Packers. The third-year QB didn't post great individual numbers, but he completed 72.0 percent of his pass attempts and attacked downfield in a way Cooper Rush, or even maybe Tua Tagovailoa at this point, could never, cementing him in the No. 1 job. Penix's 10.2 YPA isn't sustainable, but he has enough big-play weapons in Drake London and the so-far invisible Kyle Pitts to keep defenses on their heels a bit. That's music to the ears of Atlanta's biggest threat, Bijan Robinson, who flattened Green Bay with 213 scrimmage yards and two rushing TDs. The Falcons scored more points in the first half last week than they had in their first two games combined. The defense hasn't been great, especially when it comes to splash plays, but DC Jeff Ulbrich has his unit in the top 12 in yards per play allowed and QB rating against, despite missing all his top pass rushers and now his top cornerback.

For pure entertainment value, the Saints are 3-0, even if their actual record is only 1-2. Every game has come down to the wire, with last week's loss to the Raiders slipping through their fingers when the offensive line, which had done everything it could to keep Tyler Shough upright through three quarters in the absence of its best player in left tackle Kelvin Banks, finally collapsed in the fourth and let Maxx Crosby wreck the game. Along the way New Orleans also lost Travis Etienne to a hamstring strain, but Kellen Moore hadn't figured out what to do with him yet anyway. Given the state of the NFC South, a surge after their Week 8 bye once Etienne and rookie wideout Jordyn Tyson are healthy could hand them the division title, but they need to keep Shough from getting treated like a tackling dummy until then. Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller, neither of whom is exactly an iron man, will split backfield reps for now, while Chris Olave will continue to see massive volume (he's on pace for 204 targets) while being supported by Juwan Johnson and Devaughn Vele. Shough is proving to be a second-round steal in last year's draft, but he's also committed six turnovers (three INTs and three lost fumbles) in three games against nine TDs. That's not a winning formula, even if it is an exciting, chaotic one.

Key Info

ATL injury report: EDGE Jalon Walker (IR, knee), EDGE James Pearce (out, suspension), EDGE Samson Ebukam (questionable, hamstring), DE Da'Shawn Hand (IR, quadriceps), LB Divine Deablo (questionable, hamstring), CB A.J. Terrell (IR, groin)

NO injury report: RB Travis Etienne (IR, hamstring), WR Jordyn Tyson (IR, hamstring), TE Noah Fant (questionable, abdomen), LT Kelvin Banks (IR, ankle), EDGE Bryan Bresee (IR, knee), EDGE Carl Granderson (questionable, ankle), LB Kaden Elliss (questionable, calf), LB Pete Werner (questionable, neck)

Strong lean: RB Bijan Robinson (NO 32nd in rushing DVOA, 27th in YPC allowed, 27th in rushing yards per game allowed)
Slight lean: WR Devaughn Vele (ATL 28th in DVOA vs. WR2)

Slight fade: WR Jahan Dotson (NO sixth in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight fade: TE Juwan Johnson (ATL sixth in DVOA vs. TE)

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NFL weather report: indoors

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score 24-22 NO, average margin of victory eight points. Other than a 48-17 Saints win in Week 18 of 2023, this rivalry has been tightly contested in recent years, with eight of the last 11 meetings being decided by single digits

The Scoop: Robinson carves out 130 combined yards and a touchdown. Penix throws for less than 200 yards but does toss two TDs, one each to Pitts and London. Kamara leads the NO backfield with 70 yards, but Miller vultures a short score. Shough throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Olave and Vele while having his first turnover-free game of the season. Saints 27-21

SUNDAY A.M.

Indianapolis vs. Washington (+3.5) in London, o/u 47.0 – Sunday, 9:30 a.m. EDT

The Colts head across the pond to ol' Blighty for tea and crumpets, and whatever other cliches the broadcast decides to pile in there. Shane Steichen's crew is still trying to recapture their early season magic from 2025, but they also play in the only division left with two winless teams, so they've got time to sort it out. Daniel Jones has looked rusty in his return from an Achilles tear, but he also doesn't have a whole lot of options to throw it to — Michael Pittman's in Pittsburgh and Alec Pierce is back on the shelf, taking out his top two WRs from last season. Last week, that meant Josh Downs saw double-digit targets for the first time since 2024 while Tyler Warren saw double digits for only the second time in his career, and that volume seems like it could be consistent for the foreseeable future. Even Keenan Allen was able to turn back the clock a bit with a 6-63-1 line on nine targets. Jones' former deep threat in New York, Darius Slayton, could be up to speed on the playbook soon to replace the untrustworthy Laquon Treadwell in the downfield role, but neither gives secondaries as much to worry about as a healthy Pierce. With all that turmoil in the passing game, Jonathan Taylor has carried the offense in the early going, but 25 touches a game probably isn't sustainable or desirable — his career high is 21.7 from last year. It's DC Lou Anarumo's unit that's the biggest issue for Indy so far, though. It's faced a fairly tough schedule and manged to hold C.J. Stroud in check last week, but through three games the Colts rank 31st in pressure rate, takeaways and yards per play allowed, and tied for 29th in points per game allowed. There isn't a whole lot of optimism to be found in there.

The Commanders have only one win in three games, but it was the most nonsense win imaginable, as a team down its starting QB managed to hang 33 points on the elite defense of the defending champs. Ah, glorious, glorious chaos. Dan Quinn's gang produced its first three takeaways of the year against a returning Sam Darnold, including what proved to be a game-sealing 50-yard INT return for a TD in the fourth quarter from third-string linebacker Kain Medrano, who was playing the first defensive snaps of his career and was only on the field because Frankie Luvu was inactive and Leo Chenal had just been lost to a neck injury that will require season-ending surgery. Improbable doesn't begin to cover it. Washington's D has still been one of the worst units in the league overall, ranking 30th in yards per play allowed and 31st in points per game allowed, and Quinn simply may not have the talent for his "big plays or bust" philosophy to work. Marcus Mariota ended up getting overshadowed by Case Keenum when it came to big efforts in Week 3 from backups, but three touchdown passes against zero giveaways versus Seattle is still impressive. The news on Jayden Daniels is relatively good — he'll eventually need surgery again on his left elbow, but he'll try to put it off until the offseason by wearing a brace on it — but a Week 5 return seems like a best-case scenario.

Key Info

IND injury report: WR Alec Pierce (IR, heel), WR Keenan Allen (questionable, groin)

WAS injury report: QB Jayden Daniels (out, elbow), RB Rachaad White (out, shoulder), WR Terry McLaurin (questionable, hamstring), LT Laremy Tunsil (IR, triceps), RG Sam Cosmi (out, concussion), LB Leo Chenal (IR, neck), CB Trey Amos (IR, ankle), S Nick Cross (out, undisclosed)

Slight lean: WR Laquon Treadwell / Darius Slayton (WAS 31st in DVOA vs. deep throws)
Strong lean: WR Stefon Diggs (IND 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)

Strong fade: RB Jonathan Taylor (WAS first in rushing DVOA, third in rushing yards per game allowed, t-first in rushing TDs allowed)
Slight fade: WR Terry McLaurin (IND fourth in receiving yards per game allowed to WR1s)

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NFL weather report: 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Taylor puts together 90 scrimmage yards and his first receiving TD of the season. Jones throws for 260 yards and two more scores, one each to Downs and Warren. Jacory Croskey-Merritt breaks out for 120 yards and a touchdown. Mariota throws for 240 yards and a TD to Diggs while also running in a score. Commanders 28-27

EARLY SUNDAY

Tennessee (+11.5) at Baltimore, o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Titans are a well-deserved 0-3, and while they might not be the worst team in the NFL this year (the Dolphins are nearly lapping the field in negative point differential and just lost their best player on offense), they seem a long way from contention. Robert Saleh already seems fed up by the bad habits he's got to try to get his charges to unlearn, and while his comments about Cam Ward in the wake of last week's ugly 12-7 loss to a Jaxson Dart-less Giants team got most of the press, it was a savage backhanded compliment toward his offensive line that got me chuckling ("I also think the protection was so darn good, it probably took [Ward] by surprise.") Saleh's out here talking about Ward having PTSD from his rookie year sack total, which doesn't sound like a coach who thinks his first win of the season is coming any day now. Ward and Carnell Tate are building chemistry in fits and starts, but it does seem to be building — the problem is, the QB has nobody else to throw to who seems capable of a big play. Wan'Dale Robinson got a revenge TD against his former team, but what passes for a ceiling game for the slot wideout still featured just 57 yards on 11 targets, and Calvin Ridley seems to be going through the motions at this point. With both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears banged up, it might be time to see if rookie Nicholas Singleton has anything to offer, just to give the offense a bit of juice. I mean, Brian Daboll's unit is averaging 12.3 points a game. What have the Titans got to lose?

For the Ravens, Rio was everything Max Bialystock dreamed it could be. With seven seconds left in a 31-31 tie, Zay Flowers somehow got open for a 27-yard gain on a one-play drive, setting up Tyler Loop for a game-winning 56-yard field goal as time expired. Flowers is playing through a hamstring issue and has been on the field for only 41 offensive snaps through three weeks — that's less than Rashod Bateman has seen in any single game so far — but he's somehow put up a 10-234-1 line on 12 targets. That's bonkers. The last time Baltimore has seen a wideout put up those kinds of numbers, Johnny Unitas was under center. (Seriously — Michael "no, the other one" Jackson's 76-1,201-14 line in 1996 is probably the best season by a WR in Ravens history.) Oh, and Derrick Henry ran for another two touchdowns last week, because of course he did. On the other hand, DC Anthony Weaver's squad has yet to hold an opponent to less than 23 points and isn't doing anything particularly well, so Lamar Jackson and the offense don't have much slack. If for some reason they slow down, it'll mean trouble.

Key Info

TEN injury report: RB Tyjae Spears (questionable, ankle), RG Jackson Slater (IR, foot), RG Fernando Carmona (IR, ankle), EDGE John Franklin-Myers (questionable, back)

BAL injury report: WR Ja'Kobi Lane (IR, wrist), WR Chris Moore (questionable, ankle), LT Ronnie Stanley (questionable, toe), C Danny Pinter (IR, knee), C Ethan Pocic (out, knee), C Jovaughn Gwyn (out, lower leg), EDGE Trey Hendrickson (out, finger)

Strong lean: WR Carnell Tate (BAL 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)
Strong lean: WR Rashod Bateman (TEN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)

Slight fade: WR Elic Ayomanor (BAL sixth in DVOA vs. WR3)
Strong fade: TE Mark Andrews (TEN first in DVOA vs. TE)

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NFL weather report: 45-55 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Singleton gets meaningful work and leads the TEN backfield with 50 yards. Ward throws for less than 200 yards but hits Tate for his first NFL score. Henry romps for 130 yards and two touchdowns. Jackson throws for 280 yards and two TDs, both to Flowers (who tops 100 yards). Ravens 31-10

New England (+6.5) at Buffalo, o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

So what's going on with Drake Maye? Three consecutive games with less than 210 passing yards, three consecutive games with at least one INT (and seven turnovers in total), and he hasn't even been running much the last couple weeks. Protection has been part of the problem as he's been sacked nine times, and not having A.J. Brown doesn't help, but he also just looks out of sorts. Maybe I'm still a bit baseball-brained now, but Maye's general vibe is of a hitter caught between being too aggressive and not enough at the plate. When he was on a roll last year, the third-year QB was just out there slinging it. Maybe having to battle Josh Allen will bring out the best in him? To be fair to Maye, the Patriots' 1-2 start isn't all on his shoulders. The defense just got smoked by the Jaguars, and nobody's really stepped up in Brown's absence to be the focal point of the offense. The question New England needs to ask itself is if when Brown does come off IR ... will it be enough?

Three weeks in, we're already down to five undefeated teams, and the Bills are arguably in the best position to make the '72 Dolphins nervous, just because they have Josh Allen. They're the first team in the NFL to reach 100 points scored, and while the unit cooled down a bit last week against the Chargers, the game never really felt like it might go against Buffalo — even after they sportingly spotted Jim Harbaugh's crew a 10-point lead. Allen's been absurd, producing 11 TDs (five passing and six rushing) already with a 9.1 YPA, and while that's limited James Cook to just two trips to the end zone, he's third in rushing yards at 346, just behind Kenneth Walker and Bijan Robinson, and he leads the NFL with a monstrous 6.0 YPC. Greg Rousseau's also off to a stunning start to the campaign — his career high in sacks for a season is 8.0, but he's already got six in 2026. The rest of the Bills' defense has three between them. That's been the team in microcosm, in fact — the stars are shining brighter than ever (add Dalton Kincaid to that list), but the supporting cast has been pretty meh. If a couple more guys can raise their game on the defensive side, Buffalo will shift from being one of the favorites to win it all to THE favorite.

Key Info

NE injury report: WR A.J. Brown (IR, ankle), RG Mike Onwenu (IR, ankle), RT Morgan Moses (questionable, foot), EDGE Harold Landry (PUP, undisclosed), EDGE Dre'Mont Jones (questionable, shoulder), DE Christian Barmore (out, shoulder), LB Christian Elliss (questionable, chest), CB Christian Gonzalez (out, shoulder), S Craig Woodson (questionable, shoulder)

BUF injury report: DE T.J. Sanders (doubtful, illness), CB Christian Benford (questionable, toe)

Slight lean: WR Romeo Doubs (BUF 25th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight lean: WR DJ Moore (NE 27th in receptions per game allowed to WR1s)

No Patriots fades. The Bills defense hasn't stood out in any area so far
Strong fade: WR Khalil Shakir (NE first in DVOA vs. WR2)
Strong fade: TE Dalton Kincaid (NE third in DVOA vs. TE)

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NFL weather report: 30-50 percent chance of rain

Head-to-head record, last five years including playoffs: 7-4 BUF, average score 27-21 BUF, average margin of victory nine points. The last three season series have been split, with all six games decided by a single score

The Scoop: TreVeyon Henderson leads the NE backfield with 60 yards, while Rhamondre Stevenson adds 50. Maye begins to minimize his mistakes but throws for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to Doubs. Cook cooks, surging for 160 yards and three scores, two rushing and one receiving. Allen throws for 270 yards and a second TD to Moore. Bills 34-13

New York Jets (+3.5) at Chicago, o/u 43.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Consecutive losses and a big pile of injuries have the Jets' season already in danger of slipping away early. Geno Smith has been remarkably efficient in retread OC Frank Reich's system, completing 75.5 percent of his passes with a 4:0 TD:INT through three weeks, but his supporting cast for this one could be down to Garrett Wilson and a whole bunch of guys he might have to introduce himself to in the huddle. Breece Hall is expected to miss a few games with a quad strain, leaving the backfield in the hands of Braelon Allen, while Adonai Mitchell is trying to figure out how to catch a football with his injured finger and Kenyon Sadiq apparently hurt his back making that Superman catch last week. Return man Isaiah Williams, who had a 18-121-0 line on 22 targets over the last four games of 2025 while Brady Cook was under center, will get a chance to show he can contribute on offense as well. Aaron Glenn's defense has held its own so far, ranking fourth in yards per play allowed, but if the offense has trouble moving the ball, there's only so much the other side of the ball can do.

One game in miserable weather against a Brian Flores defense aside, the Bears' offense has been as advertised this season. Ben Johnson somehow pulled a strong performance out of Case Keenum last Monday against the Eagles, as the 38-year-old produced three TDs in his first NFL action since Christmas Eve 2023. Keenum was so good, in fact, that there's now a little controversy over who should replace Caleb Williams this week. Tyson Bagent, whose concussion last week opened the door for Keenum, is the presumptive No. 2 QB, but Ben Johnson might decide to roll the dice and ride the hot hand instead. Luther Burden would have no objections, after he posted his season-highest volume last week and scored his first TD of the year. Perhaps more surprising than even Keenum's impressive effort was the number Chicago's defense did on Jalen Hurts. Philly managed just seven points and 248 yards while coughing the ball up three times, and Dillon Thieneman is quickly proving to be a menace on the back end for the Bears. Montez Sweat still needs more help in the pass rush, but Dennis Allen's crew might be the pushovers they seemed like in Week 1.

Key Info

NYJ injury report: RB Breece Hall (out, quadriceps), WR Adonai Mitchell (out, finger), WR Omar Cooper (IR, ankle), TE Kenyon Sadiq (questionable, back), TE Mason Taylor (out, thumb), DE Kingsley Enagbare (questionable, knee)

CHI injury report: QB Caleb Williams (out, hamstring), CB Kyler Gordon (PUP, calf), CB Cam Lewis (doubtful, leg), S Coby Bryant (IR, knee)

Slight lean: WR Isaiah Williams (CHI 29th in receiving yards per game allowed to WR2s)
Strong lean: WR Rome Odunze (NYJ 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)

Strong fade: WR Malik McClain (CHI second in DVOA vs. WR3)
Slight fade: WR Luther Burden (NYJ fourth in DVOA vs. WR1)

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NFL weather report: 5-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Allen pieces together 90 scrimmage yards. Smith throws for 220 yards and two TDs, finding Wilson and Williams. Swift manages 70 yards and a receiving touchdown, while Kyle Monangai leads the CHI backfield with 80 yards and a score. Bagent starts and throws for 260 yards and a second TD to Odunze while also running in a touchdown. Bears 34-14

Jacksonville (+2.5) at Cincinnati, o/u 51.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Were it not for that fourth-quarter collapse in Denver, the Jaguars would be 3-0 with the best point differential in the league. Trevor Lawrence is clicking in Liam Coen's scheme, posting career highs in completion rate (66.7 percent) and YPA (7.6) in the early going, and after failing to reach 30 TDs in any of his first five NFL seasons, he's already chucked seven in three games. His target tree has been surprisingly narrow, though, especially in the red zone, as Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers and sixth-round rookie Josh Cameron have two touchdowns each. Really, the Jags offense hasn't even had to open up the throttle yet, thanks to the defense averaging two takeaways a game and providing some short fields. A month ago, this stretch of the schedule looked daunting, as they get the Eagles and Texans at home after this road clash with the Bengals, but all three preseason contenders have looked vulnerable in the early going.

Well, so much for the Bengals defense being fixed. Last week's loss saw a struggling Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers ring up 30 points and 411 yards, with Jaylen Warren running wild and Rodgers slinging it for three TDs and nearly 300 yards. Both of Cincy's starting safeties emerged from the game, uhh, scathed, which certainly didn't help, and the run defense is looking potentially vulnerable. That would be fine if the offense were humming, but Joe Burrow and company have yet to really get going, especially when it comes to big plays. OC Dan Pitcher's been at this for three years now and his unit hasn't had to deal with any major personnel changes, at least when it comes to his skill players, so the lack of progress isn't great. Any offense with Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Chase Brown is going to have a high floor, but it feels like there should be more ceiling here.

Key Info

JAC injury report: WR Jakobi Meyers (questionable, thumb), RG Patrick Mekari (IR, back), RT Cole Van Lanen (questionable, knee), DT DaVon Hamilton (questionable, back), CB Montario Brown (questionable, hamstring)

CIN injury report: WR Colbie Young (out, knee), RG Dalton Risner (questionable, knee), CB DJ Turner (questionable, ankle), S Jordan Battle (questionable, hamstring), S Bryan Cook (questionable, ankle)

Slight lean: TE Brenton Strange (CIN 28th in DVOA vs. TE)
Strong lean: TE Mike Gesicki (JAC 31st in DVOA vs. TE) 

Slight fade: WR Jakobi Meyers (CIN t-sixth in receiving yards per game allowed to WR2s)
Strong fade: QB Joe Burrow (JAC second in passing DVOA, t-first in passing TDs allowed)
Strong fade: WR Dohnte Meyers (JAC third in DVOA vs. WR3)

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NFL weather report: 30-40 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Bhayshul Tuten pops for 110 yards and a score, while Chris Rodriguez adds 50 yards and a TD. Lawrence throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, finding Strange and Washington. Brown responds with 120 yards and a score. Burrow throws for 230 yards and two TDs, one each to Ja'Marr and Higgins. Jaguars 31-27

Dallas (+2.5) at Houston, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Joey Porter deal is exactly the kind of trade a team taking aim at the Super Bowl should be making. The question is, does that description apply to the Cowboys? This team seems like it's a lot more than one competent cornerback away from being a serious threat, and they're running out of draft capital to add anyone else if they're already dipping into premium 2028 picks. This feels like a classic "we have to do something!" trade after last week's debacle in Brazil, when the secondary forgot to cover Zay Flowers and let the Ravens put together a seven-second FG drive to win it. There isn't even a guarantee Porter will be suiting up right away, though he's apparently more willing to play for Dallas without an extension than he was in Pittsburgh, and he isn't listed on the Cowboys' injury report. The team always has a puncher's chance of winning a game as long as Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are healthy, but a defense that's bottom 10 in yards per play allowed, points per play allowed, bottom 3 in takeaways and sacks and last in third-down defense isn't suddenly going to transform into a stingy unit with Porter.

Shaky as the Cowboys' start to the year has been, it's been a triumph compared to the Texans' 0-3 nightmare. C.J. Stroud and company have managed only 18.0 points a game, while Will Anderson and the defense have been merely good, not elite. The main issue there has been a linebacking corps that's being held together by chewing gum and prayers. It's gotten so bad that Kenneth Murray, who was simply awful for the Cowboys last year, was signed off his couch to provide some depth. Stroud has also missed Nico Collins, as a hamstring strain cost him the last two games, and the offensive line can't protect its QB or open up holes for David Montgomery. The targets Stroud does have to work with, including former Cowboy Dalton Schultz, are capable of decent individual numbers, but the Texans have scored 23 total points in the two games without Collins. Unless the defense regains last year's form, that's not going to cut it.

Key Info

DAL injury report: LG Tyler Smith (IR, thumb), LB DeMarvion Overshown (out, hamstring), CB Cobie Durant (out, hamstring), CB Shavon Revel (questionable, knee), S Malik Hooker (questionable, forearm), S Jalen Thomson (IR, hamstring)

HOU injury report: WR Nico Collins (questionable, hamstring), WR Tank Dell (IR, knee), WR Jayden Higgins (IR, knee), RT Braden Smith (IR, foot), RT Trent Brown (questionable, knee), EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (questionable, knee), DT Kayden McDonald (IR, ankle), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (doubtful, groin), LB Henry To'oTo'o (IR, shoulder), LB E.J. Speed (PUP, quadriceps), LB Jake Hansen (questionable, calf)

Slight lean: WR CeeDee Lamb (HOU 28th in DVOA vs. WR1, 30th in DVOA vs. deep throws)
Strong lean: WR Kayshon Boutte (DAL 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)

Slight fade: RB Javonte Williams (HOU sixth in YPC allowed, fifth in rushing yards per game allowed, second in receiving yards per game allowed to RBs)
Slight fade: WR Nico Collins (DAL sixth in DVOA vs. WR1)

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NFL weather report: indoors

The Scoop: Williams grinds out 80 yards and a touchdown. Prescott throws for 290 yards and two TDs, one to Lamb (who tops 100 yards) and one to Jake Ferguson. Montgomery picks up 70 yards and a score. Stroud throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Schultz and Boutte. Cowboys 27-24

Arizona at New York Giants (+1.5), o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

That Week 1 win over the Chargers already seems like it happened a long time ago. Consecutive losses to NFC West rivals have quickly dampened whatever enthusiasm the Cardinals might have been building, especially last week against the 49ers, when Brock Purdy just calmly executed another TD drive every time Jacoby Brissett brought his team close. Brissett's been the league's ultimate dinker and dunker so far — sixth in completion rate at 70.1 percent, but 30th among qualified QBs in yards per attempt at 5.6 — and this Mike LaFleur/Nathaniel Hackett offensive scheme isn't exactly putting Michael Wilson and Trey McBride in position to do much damage after the catch. I, for one, am shocked that a passing attack getting any input at all from Hackett might be faltering. Who could have seen that coming, other than Broncos and Jets fans? (Wait ... looking at his resume, I'm throwing Bills and Jags fans on that list too. Hackett's only ever had sustained success when he had late-prime Aaron Rodgers as his QB.) Things might improve if Jeremiyah Love gets rolling, and he is coming off his first game with 100 scrimmage yards, but he hasn't really made an impact yet despite facing one of the lowest stacked-box rates in the league, according to Next Gen (12.2 percent). Of course, if Brissett isn't stretching the field, there's no reason to stack the box since everybody's staying close to the line anyway ... Did I mention that the Cards are 31st in yards per play allowed and 31st in QB rating against? Things could get a lot uglier in Arizona before they start to get better.

The Giants might be the most improbable team with a winning record through three weeks, and no I'm not forgetting about the Raiders. Big Blue's down starting QB Jaxson Dart, got 10 snaps from its best cornerback, Paulson Adebo, before he went down and just lost its best pass rusher in Brian Burns for the year before he'd recorded a sack. Malik Nabers has played every game but has very much looked like a guy who still needs to prove to himself his knee is 100 percent healthy. No worries, though, Jameis Winston is here to, well, I'm not exactly sure what he's here to do, but if teams keep playing against them the way the Titans did in Week 3, the Giants will keep stacking wins. Winston's job security shrank substantially when New York traded for Minnesota castoff J.J. McCarthy, and I can't imagine Matt Nagy is going to do a better job developing him than Kevin O'Connell did, but stranger things have happened. The defense is bottom 10 in yards per play allowed and 31st in sacks (Abdul Carter has the only one), and the rest of the unti's numbers will start catching up to those rankings when they start playing more dangerous opponents.

Key Info

ARI injury report: RB James Conner (IR, foot), RG Chase Bisontis (IR, knee), DT Walter Nolen (questionable, shoulder), DT Roy Lopez (questionable, groin), CB Will Johnson (IR, neck)

NYG injury report: QB Jaxson Dart (IR, knee), WR Calvin Austin (IR, knee), LT Andrew Thomas (questionable, groin), EDGE Brian Burns (IR, knee), CB Paulson Adebo (IR, knee), CB Deonte Banks (questionable, calf), S Tyler Nubin (questionable, calf)

Strong lean: WR Michael Wilson (NYG 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Strong lean: QB Jameis Winston (ARI 31st in passing DVOA, 29th in passing TDs allowed, 32nd in YPA allowed)
Strong lean: WR Darnell Mooney (ARI 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3, 29th in DVOA vs. deep throws)
Strong lean: TE Isaiah Likely (ARI 30th in DVOA vs. TE)

Slight fade: WR Marvin Harrison (NYG second in receptions per game allowed to WR2s)
Slight fade: WR Malachi Fields (ARI eighth in receiving yards per game allowed to WR2s)

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NFL weather report: 9-10 mph wind, 45-55 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Love scampers for 70 yards. Brissett throws for 230 yards and two TDs, both to Wilson, and Devin Duvernay takes a kickoff to the house. Cam Skattebo busts out for 100 yards and a score. Winston throws for 220 yards and two touchdowns, connecting with Nabers and Mooney. Giants 24-21

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia (+3), o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The preseason Super Bowl favorites are 1-2, but both losses have easy explanations — Sean McVay's travel arrangements in Week 1, and a rash of injuries to Matthew Stafford's targets in Week 3. Yeah, the defense gets some of the blame for blowing a 16-point halftime lead, but Puka Nacua, Terrance Ferguson and Colby Parkinson were effectively out of commission, leaving Davante Adams, Konata Mumpfield and Tyler Higbee to carry the load, which isn't ideal in a scheme built around leaving the defense guessing where the ball is going to go. That trio accounted for 32 of Stafford's 55 pass attempts, and the backfield got 11 of the remaining 23. Give the veteran QB a couple more options downfield, and one or two of Harrison Mevis' four field goals probably turn into touchdowns. Nacua's back this week, but the tight end room is still a bit of a triage unit and two big pieces will be missing on the defensive side of the ball in Aaron Donald and Jaylen Watson, so the Rams may not be running at peak efficiency yet. It can get late early in the NFL, but it still wouldn't be a surprise to see this team roar into the postseason on a nine-game winning streak or something once the roster is mostly healthy.

The Eagles are 2-1, but they might be in worse shape. Last week's loss to a Bears team that had Case Keenum under center was frankly embarrassing. The only points Philly managed came on a semi-tush push on the last play of the first half, as the Chicago defense was caught expecting Jalen Hurts to spike the ball and kick a last-second field goal. It was the QB's first rushing score of the year, and he remains lackluster through the air, posting a 5:3 TD:INT with a 7.1 YPA and 64.4 percent completion rate. The loss of A.J. Brown hasn't made a whit of difference, but maybe having five offensive coordinators (of wildly varying quality) in five years has just flatlined any further development he might have made as a passer. The offense may not be the real issue, though. How does a Vic Fangio defense with Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, Cooper DeJean, Quinyon Mitchell etc. allow itself to be carved up by Keenum, one week after giving up 20 points to a Cam Ward-led offense? The pieces aren't adding up here. I've never been a big fan of Nick Siranni, but winning a Super Bowl tends to buy you a lot of leeway. I wonder how quickly he's burning through his.

Key Info

LAR injury report: TE Colby Parkinson (questionable, knee), TE Terrance Ferguson (IR, ankle), EDGE Myles Garrett (IR, knee), EDGE Aaron Donald (out, back), LB Nate Landman (questionable, shoulder), CB Jaylen Watson (out, shoulder), S Kamren Kinchens (questionable, hamstring)

PHI injury report: RB Will Shipley (questionable, foot), WR DeVonta Smith (out, hamstring), TE Dallas Goedert (out, knee), TE Eli Stowers (IR, hamstring), LG Landon Dickerson (IR, knee), LB Zack Baun (out, concussion), S Marcus Epps (out, groin)

Strong lean: WR Konata Mumpfield (PHI 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)
Strong lean: WR Makai Lemon (LAR 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)

Slight fade: TE Colby Parkinson / Tyler Higbee (PHI t-fourth in receiving yards per game allowed to TEs)
Strong fade: WR Dontayvion Wicks (LAR third in DVOA vs. WR1)
Strong fade: TE Zach Ertz (LAR second in DVOA vs. TE)

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NFL weather report: 45-55 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Kyren Williams compiles 80 yards and a score. Stafford throws for 250 yards and two TDs, hitting Adams and Mumpfield. Saquon Barkley pops for 110 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Hurts throws for less than 200 yards and runs in a score. Rams 24-17

Green Bay at Tampa Bay (+3.5), o/u 39.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Packers may be broken until they can find a running game. Through three weeks, they have one narrow escape OT win over the Jets that saw them down by 10 points midway through the fourth quarter, and then two routs at the hands of teams led by Carson Wentz and Michael Penix. Green Bay is averaging less than 50 rushing yards a game and a meager 3.0 YPC, and they're one of just two teams (along with the Steelers, pending Thursday's result) without a rushing TD. MarShawn Lloyd clearly isn't the answer to replace Josh Jacobs, but neither is Kaleb Johnson. The only RB on the practice squad is Pierre Strong, so maybe they give him a shot at some point. Jordan Love's efficiency has taken a big hit as defenses realize they have nothing to fear on the ground, but he's still managed to sling six TDs in three games. The defense also has a Micah Parsons-shaped hole in it, but statistically it's been merely mediocre, not outright terrible — the points against are coming via sheer volume, as the opposition runs more plays and keeps the ball longer. Maybe if the roster gets up to full strength, or the front office trades for a No. 1 back (when's James Conner gonna get cleared to return again?) if it seems like Jacobs isn't going to be available any time soon, things will get back in balance and the Pack can go on a run, but in the NFC North they really can't afford to keep tripping over themselves.

Turns out the Buccaneers may have known what they were doing when they were extremely reluctant to extend Baker Mayfield. The QB is hurt again and looking at Week 7 or so return due to a thumb issue. He was having an awful start to the year and was a big reason why Tampa Bay was 0-3, managing just a 2:2 TD:INT with a 63.5 percent completion rate and career-low 6.4 YPA, so maybe some time off is for the best. The problem is, the team has no reliable backup, which seems like a really bad idea given that Mayfield played hurt in 2025, and that his health was a sticking point in contract talks and all. Stepping into the lineup is Jalon Daniels (no relation to Jayden), an undrafted rookie who went 0-for-3 with a hail mary INT in his first NFL action last week. At least his scrambling ability could come in handy behind an offensive line that let Mayfield get sacked a league-high 13 times. The good news is, nobody in the NFC South has more than one win, and the defense has been decent, being tough against the run and in the red zone so far. It's possible Tampa Bay will survive having Daniels under center without falling too much further behind, setting Mayfield up for some late-season heroics. It might not be likely, but it's possible.

Key Info

GB injury report: RB Josh Jacobs (out, suspension), WR Jayden Reed (IR, back), LG Aaron Banks (out, knee), RT Zach Bako-Bewele (IR, knee), EDGE Micah Parsons (PUP, knee), LB Edgerrin Cooper (questionable, concussion)

TB injury report: QB Baker Mayfield (out, thumb), WR Jalen McMillan (IR, knee), EDGE Rueben Bain (out, groin), CB Benjamin Morrison (out, quadriceps)

Slight lean: TE Tucker Kraft (TB 27th in DVOA vs. TE)
Strong lean: WR Emeka Egbuka (GB 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)

Strong fade: WR Christian Watson (TB second in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight fade: WR Chris Godwin (GB fifth in DVOA vs. WR3)

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NFL weather report: 10-15 mph wind, 40-50 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Lloyd leads the GB backfield with 40 yards. Love throws for 250 yards and two TDs, one each to Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft. Bucky Irving gains 80 yards and a score. Daniels throws for less than 200 yards and tosses a pick-six to Zaire Franklin. Packers 21-13

LATE SUNDAY

Miami (+11.5) at Minnesota, o/u 38.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

The Dolphins are very quickly positioning themselves to claim the top pick in the 2027 draft. It's not just that they're 0-3, and have the worst point differential in the league (minus-50, two touchdowns and a two-point conversion clear of 31st). Miami's been terrible on both sides of the ball — only four offenses have had a lower percentage of its drives end in points, while no defense has allowed points on a higher percentage of theirs. The Fish are in the bottom five in yards per play allowed, and are the only team left without a sack. Malik Willis has more turnovers than TDs and is completing less than 60 percent of his passes, and he just lost his only reliably dangerous weapon for the season. Through three games, this team has held a lead for exactly 0:00. Any given Sunday and all that, but the Dolphins look like they have a legit shot at 0-17.

The Vikings, however, are living fat at 3-0, and 2-0 in the NFC North. The record looks good on paper, but it seems fragile. Kyler Murray and the offense only managed nine first downs against the Bucs last week, getting away with it thanks to Brian Flores' defense recording six sacks and forcing a couple late INTs that gave Minnesota great field position. Dallas Turner and crew lead the league with 14 sacks in three games, and they're tied for fourth with six takeaways while leading the NFL in completion rate against (an eye-popping 50.9 percent). How little help the defense needs to get a win might be put to the test soon, as Justin Jefferson is nursing an ankle injury. In his absence last week, Jordan Addison popped for a 5-90-1 line on nine targets, and he's likely to be busy again in this one. At least in the first half.

Key Info

MIA injury report: RB De'Von Achane (IR, knee), WR Caleb Douglas (out, ankle), CB Storm Duck (PUP, knee), CB Darrell Baker (PUP, undisclosed)

MIN injury report: RB Jordan Mason (IR, thumb), WR Justin Jefferson (out, ankle)

Slight lean: WR Chris Bell (MIN t-26th in receptions per game allowed to WR2s)
Strong lean: QB Kyler Murray (MIA 32nd in passing DVOA, 32nd in completion rate allowed, t-25th in TD passes allowed)
Strong lean: TE T.J. Hockenson (MIA 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

Strong fade: QB Malik Willis (MIN first in passing DVOA, first in QB rating against)
Strong fade: RB Ollie Gordon / Jaylen Wright (MIN second in rushing DVOA, fourth in rushing yards per game allowed, t-first in rushing TDs allowed)
Slight fade: WR Jauan Jennings (MIN eighth in DVOA vs. WR2)

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NFL weather report: indoors

The Scoop: Jaylen Wright leads the MIA backfield with 50 combined yards. Willis throws for less than 200 yards and runs in a touchdown. Aaron Jones piles up 130 scrimmage yards and a score. Murray throws for 230 yards and two TDs, finding Hockenson and Addison. Vikings 24-7

Kansas City at Las Vegas (+4.5), o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Somehow, this game is for first place in the AFC West. KC is 3-0, and Andy Reid's bunch is looking like their old championship selves, winning two of three games by two touchdowns or more. Only the Rams have produced more raw yards, and only the 49ers, Ravens and Bills are averaging more yards per play. Patrick Mahomes has throws for seven TDs, more than his turnovers (two) and sacks (four) combined, and while Kenneth Walker didn't thunder for 150-plus scrimmage yards again last week, another two-TD game is a decent consolation prize. Meanwhile, Steve Spagnuolo's rebuilt secondary is second in QB rating against, and that's without benefit of much of a pass rush. Kansas City has already been very good, and there's plenty of room for improvement as the playoffs draw nearer. It's almost like they've done this before.

The Raiders' undefeated start to the season has come at the hands of two winless teams and a 1-2 Saints squad that seemed headed for a win until its offensive line finally caved in late, so they haven't exactly been a juggernaut, and the game result below — my algorithm is mostly done with 2025 stats at this point, aside from a rolling five-game average for some stats — should be taken with a big grain of salt. That's still as many wins as they had all last year under Pete Carroll, though, so Klint Kubiak must be doing something right. Kirk Cousins has tossed three TDs in all three games while completing 67.4 percent of his passes, and while three INTs isn't ideal, Fernando Mendoza isn't taking over any time soon. With Brock Bowers back, the passing game has a true focal point (no, Cody White doesn't count), which should take some pressure off Ashton Jeanty and his 3.3 YPC. Jeanty's big workload could begin to shrink if his efficiency doesn't improve, as Mike Washington has shown some juice in his limited opportunities. Kubiak had no problem with a timeshare in his backfield, or with riding the hot hand, in Seattle. DC Rob Leonard's unit has  racked up splash plays, leading the league with nine takeaways while tied for fourth with 10 sacks, but the quality of the opposition they've faced needs to be taken into account there. If those dry up, this defense might have a hard time climbing above average, but that would likely be good enough to stay competitive given how the offense is performing.

Key Info

KC injury report: LT Josh Simmons (out, back)

LV injury report: WR Jack Bech (IR, forearm), RG Jackson Powers-Johnson (out, groin)

Slight lean: TE Travis Kelce (LV 24th in DVOA vs. TE)
Slight lean: WR Jalen Nailor (KC 30th in receptions per game allowed to WR3s)

Strong fade: WR Tyquan Thornton (LV first in DVOA vs. WR3)
Strong fade: WR Tre Tucker (KC first in DVOA vs. WR1)

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NFL weather report: indoors

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 KC, average score 28-15 KC, average margin of victory 15 points. Patrick Mahomes is 13-2 lifetime against the Raiders, with both losses coming at home and not at Allegiant Stadium, where he's 5-0

The Scoop: Walker churns out 120 combined yards and a touchdown. Mahomes throws for 210 yards and a TD to Kelce. Jeanty responds with 100 scrimmage yards and a score. Cousins throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Nailor and Bowers for the game-winner in the fourth quarter. Raiders 24-23

Los Angeles Chargers (+7) at Seattle, o/u 43.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

After back-to-back 26-14 losses to teams that weren't supposed to be very good, I guess it's progress that the Chargers only lost by a single score (24-16) to an actually good team like the Bills.  Very little is going right for Mike McDaniel's offense, though. Justin Herbert is flailing, Ladd McConkey is banged up, Omarion Hampton is struggling to fit the scheme and Oronde Gadsden doesn't block enough for McDaniel's liking. That's an awful lot of talent that the OC seems unable to make the best use of. The door could be opening for Keaton Mitchell to take on more work in the backfield, but that's not going to move the needle much for the unit as a whole, especially with the interior of the offensive line undermanned. McDaniel's Dolphins didn't have these kinds of issues adjusting to his playbook, but that roster also had peak Tyreek Hill on it. Having a guy post an 11-190-2 line in his second game for you tends to make you look like a genius. The defense is hanging on by its fingernails, but with injuries beginning to pile up in the secondary too, it might be long until it begins to plummet too.

Sam Darnold's rapid return to the lineup last week ended up being a bit of a flop, as the Seahawks got upset by a Marcus Mariota-led Commanders squad, but the QB threw for 379 yards and four TDs, so he gets cut a little slack. Jaxon Smith-Njigba remains the engine of the offense no matter who's chucking him the ball, and he's begun the campaign with three consecutive 120-yard performance, amassing a 27-405-6 line on 36 targets. The running game is missing Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker, though. Jadarian Price hasn't handled more than 14 touches in a game, and he won't see any this week as he's sidelined with a chest injury. That leaves Emanuel Wilson (3.4 YPC) and George Holani (3.5 YPC) to hold down the fort, though it might just lead to Darnold airing it out more again. Mike Macdonald's defense only gave up 258 yards along with Washington's 30 points, and it was a lack of turnovers (and three giveaways from the offense) that swung the game. The Seahawks are still first in yards per play allowed, third in YPC allowed and fifth in QB rating against. They're gonna be fine.

Key Info

LAC injury report: WR Ladd McConkey (questionable, foot), WR Brenan Thompson (out, quadriceps), TE David Njoku (IR, lower leg), LG Kayode Awosika (out, lower leg), LG Trey Pipkins (IR, knee), C Tyler Biadasz (IR, knee), NT Dalvin Tomlinson (out, hamstring), CB Donte Jackson (questionable, concussion), S Derwin James (questionable, hamstring), S Elijah Molden (questionable, hamstring)

SEA injury report: RB Jadarian Price (out, chest), RB Zach Charbonnet (PUP, knee), RG Anthony Bradford (IR, knee), S Ty Okada (questionable, hamstring), S Bud Clark (IR, ankle)

Slight lean: WR Tre' Harris (SEA 27th in receptions per game allowed to WR3s)
Slight lean: WR Cooper Kupp (LAC 26th in DVOA vs. WR3)

Strong fade: RB Omarion Hampton / Keaton Mitchell (SEA third in rushing DVOA, third in YPC allowed, sixth in rushing yards per game allowed, t-first in rushing TDs allowed)
Strong fade: WR Quentin Johnston (SEA second in DVOA vs. WR2)
No SEA fades with the Bolts trying to get going on both sides of the ball

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NFL weather report: 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mitchell leads the LAC backfield with 50 yards. Herbert throws for less than 200 yards. Wilson paces the SEA backfield with 70 yards. Darnold throws for 200 yards and a TD to JSN, and Derick Hall falls on the ball for a touchdown after a Leonard Williams strip sack in the end zone. Seahawks 17-12

Denver (+2.5) at San Francisco, o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

After getting smoked by Kansas City in their opener, the Broncos have bounced back with two wins, and two fourth-quarter comebacks, against strong playoff contenders in the Jaguars and Rams. Bo Nix has been Jekyll and Hydeing it to begin the year, posting a 73.1 QB rating in the first half and an 87.0 mark in the second half, but the starker split is provided by the scoreboard — he's got a 94.1 QB rating when Denver is behind, and a 40.2 mark when the score is tied. Nix has only attempted one pass when the team's ahead, which is the other issue — the defense isn't playing up to its standards. The Broncos are in the bottom half of the league in yards per play allowed and barely in the top 10 in sacks, while their run defense has been getting steamrolled. It's not what we're used to seeing from Vance Joseph's crew, and while the quality of the opposition needs to be taken into account, that doesn't tell the full story. At least Patrick Surtain and the secondary are doing their thing — Denver is third in QB rating against, second in completion rate allowed and tied for first in INTs, despite facing Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence and Matthew Stafford.

If you're having massive deja vu as a Niners fan, there's a good reason for it. The current season is looking an awful lot like the last one — injuries are piling up all over the roster, and they just keep winning anyway. If fact, they're winning big in 2026, as their plus-48 point differential is the best in the NFL. The scoreboard says they had a close call against the Cardinals last week, but the game didn't ever really feel like it might slip away from the 49ers. They were up 17 points after scoring on the first drive after the half, and after Arizona had clawed back into it, Brock Purdy would methodically drive for a touchdown to George Kittle every time the score got close. It's mind-boggling that Kyle Shanahan still hasn't gotten a Coach of the Year Award, while guys like Matt Nagy and Brian Daboll have one. Mike Vrabel winning last year was simply robbery. Anyway, the injury report got longer again this week, especially at WR, but is it going to matter? Kittle and Christian McCaffrey are healthy (for now ... yes, I knocked on wood as I typed that), and Raheem Morris has the defense in the top seven in yards per play allowed and PPG allowed despite not getting a sack yet from Nick Bosa, or even a snap from Mykel Williams or Alfred Collins.

Key Info

DEN injury report: RB Jonah Coleman (IR, ankle), EDGE Jonathan Cooper (out, suspension)

SF injury report: RB Isaac Guerendo (PUP, pectoral), WR Mike Evans (questionable, ribs), WR Demarcus Robinson (IR, ankle), WR De'Zhaun Stribling (IR, ankle), WR Ricky Pearsall (IR, knee), WR Christian Kirk (IR, calf), EDGE Nick Bosa (out, calf), EDGE Mykel Williams (PUP, knee), EDGE Keion White (questionable, hamstring), DT Alfred Collins (IR, knee), LB Dre Greenlaw (questionable, quadriceps)

Slight lean: WR Pat Bryant (SF 28th in DVOA vs. WR3)
Slight lean: RB Christian McCaffrey (DEN 27th in rushing DVOA, 30th in YPC allowed, 30th in rushing yards per game allowed)

Slight fade: WR Jaylen Waddle (SF fifth in receiving yards per game allowed to WR1s)
Slight fade: WR Brandin Cooks (DEN seventh in DVOA vs. WR3)

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NFL weather report: 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: J.K. Dobbins manages 50 yards, while RJ Harvey adds 40. Nix throws for 220 yards and two scores, one each to Courtland Sutton and Adam Trautman. McCaffrey erupts for 140 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. Purdy throws for 270 yards and two TDs, hitting Kittle and Deebo Samuel. 49ers 28-20

SUNDAY NIGHT

Detroit at Carolina (+3.5), o/u 50.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

Lions fans are up in arms that GM Brad Holmes couldn't get Joey Porter from the Steelers, given how reasonable the price tag was. The trade would have made a lot more sense for Detroit than Dallas too, at least on paper. Dan Campbell's squad is 2-1 thanks to the offense scoring exactly 31 points every week like clockwork, but they're actually underwater in point differential. The secondary has been gutted by injuries, particularly at safety, and as a result the Lions are in the bottom 10 in QB rating against and yards per play allowed. Aidan Hutchinson has 3.5 of the team's 12 sacks, second-highest total in the league, but that hasn't stopped opposing QBs from throwing for more yards against the Lions than anyone else. Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown are doing their things, but it's barely been enough, and their margin for error seems awfully thin.

It's been a weird start to the year for the Panthers. They're only 1-2, but each week has been an adventure. They were on the wrong of the highest-scoring season opener in history, dropping 37 points but still getting smoked by the Bears; absolutely routed the Falcons in Atlanta; and then lost in Cleveland by allowing Deshaun Watson to put together a TD drive inside the last two minutes. Carolina's campaign so far has been like a box of chocolates — the picture on the lid looks promising, but too many of them contain something gross like coconut. Bryce Young's tough day against the Browns dropped his comepletion rate to less than 60 percent, but he's still on pace to shatter his career high in TD passes and passing yards, with his 7.8 YPA humbling last year's 6.3 mark. Those numbers have come despite the fact that Jalen Coker's breakout has been slowed by nagging injuries, and Tetairoa McMillan is still looking for his first touchdown of 2026. Ejiro Evero's defense is third in takeaways and sixth in QB rating against, but Carolina once again looks like it has one of the worst run defenses in the league. They did face Chicago's offense and Bijan Robinson, but Quinshon Judkins also had his best day of the year against them. If Gibbs has a ceiling game ... hoo boy. Like the Raiders win above, this final score seems a little sus to me, but it's too early to start pulling my little jury-rigged algorithm apart and get to tinkering again.  

Key Info

DET injury report: RB Isiah Pacheco (IR, back), C Cade Mays (IR, wrist), CB D.J. Reed (questionable, ribs), S Brian Branch (PUP, Achilles), S Kerby Joseph (PUP, knee)

CAR injury report: WR Jalen Coker (questionable, ankle), WR Xavier Legette (out, knee), LT Ikem Ekwonu (PUP, knee), RT Taylor Moton (NFI, illness), RT Monroe Freeling (questionable, concussion), EDGE Nic Scourton (IR, knee), NT Lee Hunter (questionable, foot), CB Jaycee Horn (IR, quadriceps)

Slight lean: RB Jahmyr Gibbs (CAR 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed, t-31st in rushing TDs allowed)
Strong lean: WR Tetairoa McMillan (DET 30th in DVOA vs. WR1, 32nd in DVOA vs. deep throws)

Strong fade: WR Jameson Williams (CAR third in DVOA vs. WR2)
No Panthers fades, as the Lions defense has been no bueno

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NFL weather report: 40-50 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Gibbs surges for 120 scrimmage yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Goff throws for 280 yards and two more touchdowns, finding Sam LaPorta and Isaac TeSlaa. Chuba Hubbard responds with 90 yards and a score. Young throws for 300 yards and three TDs, two to McMillan (who tops 100 yards) and one to Darren Waller. Panthers 31-28

THURSDAY NIGHT

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (+2.5), o/u 38.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

The Joey Porter impasse finally got resolved Wednesday night, in much the same way trades get done in your fantasy league. Steelers GM Omar Khan called up the guy he knows will chase all the big-name players but doesn't usually do his homework. A 2028 second-round pick may seem like a small return for a player who thinks he should get paid near the top of the market, but hey, that's Jerry Jones' problem now. The more immediate problem for Pittsburgh might be who's going to handle duties in the slot after Jalen Ramsey broke his wrist in last week's win over the Bengals, but the veteran plans to try to play through it. Aaron Rodgers and the offense woke up last week, with the future Hall of Famer tossing three TDs and nearly producing his first 300-yard game since Week 14, 2024. It was a very late-career Rodgers sort of performance — three guys caught TDs, and six Steelers caught multiple passes — but the key was Jaylen Warren churning out 176 scrimmage yards on 20 touches. The fifth-year back has been pigeon-holed as someone who needs a more physical backfield partner, but he tends to thrive when given a larger workload. Mike McCarthy may want to look into that.

I thought last week was going to be my vindication when it comes to not believing in Deshaun Watson, but then he led a game-winning TD drive inside the last five minutes of the fourth quarter against the Panthers. Hmpft. He still isn't throwing for a whole lot of yardage, but that's par for the course for a Cleveland QB. The more important numbers are a 5:1 TD:INT and a 7.2 YPA — he's limiting mistakes and moving the chains, and that's all Todd Monken wants from him. The Browns' winning record comes with a minus-17 point differential, though, and a lot of concerns starting with Quinshon Judkins' 3.0 YPC. The real culprit is the offensive line, which has also contributed to Watson getting sacked nine times in three games, and the unit is missing two starters Thursday. T.J. Watt is always a threat, but the injuries to the Jenkins boys, center Elgton and right guard Teven (no relation) might be better news for Cameron Heyward. Incidentally, every team in the AFC North is off to a 2-1 start. It's too early for that to be meaningful, but it could be a sign that the Ravens aren't simply going to steamroll everyone.

Key Info

PIT injury report: RB Rico Dowdle (out, toe), DB Jalen Ramsey (questionable, wrist), CB Brandin Echols (questionable, concussion), S DeShon Elliott (IR, undisclosed)

CLE injury report: RB Dylan Sampson (IR, knee), C Elgton Jenkins (out, concussion), RG Teven Jenkins (out, back)

Slight lean: WR Michael Pittman (CLE 26th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight lean: WR Denzel Boston (PIT 22nd in DVOA vs. WR1)

Slight fade: RB Jaylen Warren (CLE has yet to allow a rushing TD in 2026, and is fifth in passing DVOA vs. RB)
Slight fade: TE Harold Fannin (PIT second in receptions per game allowed to TEs)

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NFL weather report: 25-35 percent chance of rain

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 PIT, average score 20-16 PIT, average margin of victory nine points. The home team has won nine straight meetings in this rivalry, with the last road victory being a 15-10 Steelers win in Week 8 of 2021. Ben Roethlisberger beat Baker Mayfield, and Grant Delpit might be the only player left on the Browns who played in that game (Denzel Ward was hurt.) T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward combined for 2.0 sacks and Pat Freiermuth caught a TD for the Steelers, though.

The Scoop: Warren picks up 80 combined yards. Rodgers throws for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to Darnell Washington. Judkins gets held to 60 yards. Watson throws for less than 200 yards and a TD as well, finding Boston, but a Heyward strip sack leads to a game-winning score for Nick Herbig. Steelers 14-13

Last week's record: 8-8, 7-9 ATS, 7-9 o/u
2026 record: 26-22 (.542), 17-31 ATS (.354), 23-24-1 o/u (.489)
2025 record: 173-98-1 (.638), 143-121-8 ATS (.541), 141-130-1 o/u (.520)