Week 2 finished 2-3 (-2.14 units), pulling our season record to 5-5 (-1.75 units). For Week 3, we're publishing five finalized picks -- built under two new standing rules, and with individual box-score checks on three of the five names before we locked anything in.
| Wk | Date | Kicker | Market | Line | Pick | Result | Units Staked | Net Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2026-09-13 | Ka'imi Fairbairn HOU | FG Made O/U | O 1.5 | Over | Loss (1) | 1.49u | -1.49u |
| 1 | 2026-09-13 | Nick Folk ATL | FG Made O/U | O 1.5 | Over | Win (2) | 1.14u | +1.00u |
| 1 | 2026-09-13 | Tyler Bass BUF | FG Made O/U | U 1.5 | Under | Loss (3) | 1.12u | -1.12u |
| 1 | 2026-09-13 | Chase McLaughlin TB | FG Made O/U | O 1.5 | Over | Win (2) | 1.35u | +1.00u |
| 1 | 2026-09-13 | Tyler Loop BAL | FG Made O/U | O 1.5 | Over | Win (2) | 1.43u | +1.00u |
| 2 | 2026-09-20 | Eddy Pineiro SF | Kicking Pts O/U | O 7.5 | Over | Loss (5) | 1.35u | -1.35u |
| 2 | 2026-09-20 | Harrison Butker KC | FG Made O/U | O 1.5 | Over | Win (4) | 1.26u | +1.00u |
| 2 | 2026-09-20 | Cam Little JAX | PAT Made O/U | O 1.5 | Over | Loss (1) | 1.79u | -1.79u |
| 2 | 2026-09-20 | Nick Folk ATL | Kicking Pts O/U | O 6.5 | Over | Loss (3) | 1.00u | -1.00u |
| 2 | 2026-09-20 | Chase McLaughlin TB | FG Made O/U | O 1.5 | Over | Win (4) | 1.49u | +1.00u |
| Kicker | Matchup | Kicking Pts O/U | Our Projection | Edge | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cameron Dicker LAC | at BUF | O 5.5 (-120) / U 5.5 (-110) | 8.56 | +3.06 | Flagged |
Ka'imi Fairbairn HOU | at IND | O 6.5 (-130) / U 6.5 (+100) | 9.42 | +2.92 | Over |
Daniel Carlson NO | vs LV | O 6.5 (-135) / U 6.5 (+105) | 8.87 | +2.37 | Over |
Eddy Pineiro SF | vs ARI | O 7.5 (-135) / U 7.5 (+105) | 9.71 | +2.21 | Over |
Will Reichard MIN | at TB | O 6.5 (-115) / U 6.5 (-115) | 8.33 | +1.83 | Over |
Nick Folk ATL | at GB | O 6.5 (+100) / U 6.5 (-134) | 8.23 | +1.73 | Over |
Joey Slye TEN | at NYG | O 5.5 (-130) / U 5.5 (+100) | 7.12 | +1.62 | Over |
Jason Sanders NYJ | at DET | O 5.5 (-115) / U 5.5 (-115) | 7.02 | +1.52 | Over |
Harrison Butker KC | at MIA | O 8.5 (+100) / U 8.5 (-130) | 10.01 | +1.51 | Over |
Brandon Aubrey DAL | at BAL | O 6.5 (-115) / U 6.5 (-115) | 7.88 | +1.38 | Over |
Riley Patterson MIA | vs KC | O 4.5 (-115) / U 4.5 (-115) | 5.71 | +1.21 | Over |
Andre Szmyt CLE | at CAR | O 5.5 (-125) / U 5.5 (-105) | 6.66 | +1.16 | Over |
Trey Smack GB | vs ATL | O 7.5 (-122) / U 7.5 (-105) | 8.60 | +1.10 | Over |
Tyler Loop BAL | vs DAL | O 7.5 (-110) / U 7.5 (-120) | 8.50 | +1.00 | Over |
Chad Ryland ARI | at SF | O 5.5 (+100) / U 5.5 (-130) | 6.15 | +0.65 | Over |
Wil Lutz DEN | vs LAR | O 6.5 (-120) / U 6.5 (-110) | 7.14 | +0.64 | Over |
Evan McPherson CIN | at PIT | O 7.5 (+105) / U 7.5 (-135) | 6.91 | -0.59 | Under |
Matt Gay LV | at NO | O 6.5 (+105) / U 6.5 (-135) | 7.04 | +0.54 | Over |
Andy Borregales NE | at JAX | O 6.5 (+100) / U 6.5 (-130) | 6.03 | -0.47 | Pass |
Spencer Shrader IND | vs HOU | O 6.5 (-110) / U 6.5 (-120) | 6.06 | -0.44 | Pass |
Cam Little JAX | vs NE | O 7.5 (-110) / U 7.5 (-120) | 7.07 | -0.43 | Pass |
Tyler Bass BUF | vs LAC | O 7.5 (-120) / U 7.5 (-110) | 7.16 | -0.34 | Pass |
Jason Myers SEA | at WAS | O 7.5 (+110) / U 7.5 (-140) | 7.82 | +0.32 | Pass |
Ryan Fitzgerald CAR | vs CLE | O 6.5 (-115) / U 6.5 (-115) | 6.82 | +0.32 | Pass |
Chase McLaughlin TB | vs MIN | O 6.5 (+110) / U 6.5 (-140) | 6.78 | +0.28 | Pass |
Drew Stevens WAS | vs SEA | O 5.5 (+100) / U 5.5 (-130) | 5.32 | -0.18 | Pass |
Chris Boswell PIT | vs CIN | O 6.5 (-110) / U 6.5 (-120) | 6.33 | -0.17 | Pass |
Dominic Zvada NYG | vs TEN | O 6.5 (-115) / U 6.5 (-115) | 6.52 | +0.02 | Pass |
Harrison Mevis LAR | at DEN | O 6.5 (-135) / U 6.5 (+105) | 6.49 | -0.01 | Pass |
Jake Bates DET | vs NYJ | O 7.5 (-115) / U 7.5 (-115) | 7.50 | 0.00 | Pass |
| Kicker | Matchup | FG Made O/U | Our Projection | Edge | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ka'imi Fairbairn HOU | at IND | O 1.5 (-144) / U 1.5 (+113) | 2.51 | +1.01 | Over |
Cameron Dicker LAC | at BUF | O 1.5 (+117) / U 1.5 (-149) | 2.16 | +0.66 | Flagged |
Nick Folk ATL | at GB | O 1.5 (-115) / U 1.5 (-115) | 2.13 | +0.63 | Over |
Trey Smack GB | vs ATL | O 1.5 (-165) / U 1.5 (+125) | 1.94 | +0.44 | Over |
Joey Slye TEN | at NYG | O 1.5 (-117) / U 1.5 (-109) | 1.87 | +0.37 | Over |
Harrison Mevis LAR | at DEN | O 1.5 (-135) / U 1.5 (+106) | 1.24 | -0.26 | Pass |
Spencer Shrader IND | vs HOU | O 1.5 (-115) / U 1.5 (-111) | 1.26 | -0.24 | Pass |
Tyler Bass BUF | vs LAC | O 1.5 (-123) / U 1.5 (-103) | 1.29 | -0.21 | Pass |
Wil Lutz DEN | vs LAR | O 1.5 (-122) / U 1.5 (-104) | 1.64 | +0.14 | Pass |
Dominic Zvada NYG | vs TEN | O 1.5 (-149) / U 1.5 (+117) | 1.37 | -0.13 | Pass |
Chris Boswell PIT | vs CIN | O 1.5 (-126) / U 1.5 (-101) | 1.47 | -0.03 | Pass |
Evan McPherson CIN | at PIT | O 1.5 (-142) / U 1.5 (+111) | 1.47 | -0.03 | Pass |
| Kicker | Matchup | PAT Made O/U | Our Projection | Edge | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dominic Zvada NYG | vs TEN | O 1.5 (-146) / U 1.5 (+114) | 2.40 | +0.90 | Over |
Spencer Shrader IND | vs HOU | O 1.5 (-161) / U 1.5 (+126) | 2.29 | +0.79 | Over |
Wil Lutz DEN | vs LAR | O 1.5 (-186) / U 1.5 (+145) | 2.22 | +0.72 | Over |
Cameron Dicker LAC | at BUF | O 1.5 (-187) / U 1.5 (+146) | 2.06 | +0.56 | Flagged |
Chris Boswell PIT | vs CIN | O 1.5 (-111) / U 1.5 (-115) | 1.92 | +0.42 | Over |
Ka'imi Fairbairn HOU | at IND | O 1.5 (-178) / U 1.5 (+138) | 1.89 | +0.39 | Over |
Nick Folk ATL | at GB | O 1.5 (-135) / U 1.5 (+100) | 1.85 | +0.35 | Over |
Trey Smack GB | vs ATL | O 2.5 (+120) / U 2.5 (-160) | 2.79 | +0.29 | Pass |
Harrison Mevis LAR | at DEN | O 2.5 (+116) / U 2.5 (-148) | 2.77 | +0.27 | Pass |
Tyler Bass BUF | vs LAC | O 3.5 (+131) / U 3.5 (-168) | 3.29 | -0.21 | Pass |
Joey Slye TEN | at NYG | O 1.5 (-112) / U 1.5 (-114) | 1.50 | 0.00 | Pass |
Evan McPherson CIN | at PIT | O 2.5 (+150) / U 2.5 (-192) | 2.50 | 0.00 | Pass |
Week 3 Official Picks
Two new standing rules shaped this list. First, we no longer publish a pick priced worse than -150 -- we won't risk more than 1.5 units to win 1, no matter how large the edge. Second, when two candidates show a similar edge, we now lean toward the one with better odds rather than automatically taking the bigger number.
| Kicker | Matchup | Market | Line | Our Proj. | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | HOU vs IND | FG Made O/U | O 1.5 (-144) | 2.51 | +1.01 |
| Nick Folk | ATL vs GB | FG Made O/U | O 1.5 (-115) | 2.13 | +0.63 |
| Daniel Carlson | NO vs LV | Kicking Pts O/U | O 6.5 (-135) | 8.87 | +2.37 |
| Will Reichard | MIN at TB | Kicking Pts O/U | O 6.5 (-115) | 8.33 | +1.83 |
| Joey Slye | TEN at NYG | Kicking Pts O/U | O 5.5 (-130) | 7.12 | +1.62 |
Ka'imi Fairbairn Over 1.5 FG Made (HOU vs. IND)
Fairbairn's Week 1 Kicking Points pick missed (only 1 FG that game), but his real Week 2 box score shows 2 field goals made (45 and 37 yards) -- 3 makes across his first two real games, a normal profile, not a decline. We checked this directly before republishing him.
Nick Folk Over 1.5 FG Made (ATL vs. GB)
Folk's Week 2 Kicking Points pick was our worst miss of that week (Atlanta scored only 3 points all game). This week's bet is on a different market -- FG Made, not total kicking points -- so a repeat of that exact outcome wouldn't necessarily repeat this result.
Daniel Carlson Over 6.5 Kicking Points (NO vs. LV)
The largest edge on this list, and the one we were most cautious about given a different kicker's edge misled us in Week 1. Carlson's real 2026 stats check out clean: 4-for-5 on field goals through two games, with the only miss a 62-yard attempt. Not the same situation as this model's known blind spot (see below).
Will Reichard Over 6.5 Kicking Points (MIN at TB)
Reichard has made all four of his field-goal tries and all four extra-point attempts to open 2026 -- a perfect real-world track record backing this pick.
Joey Slye Over 5.5 Kicking Points (TEN at NYG)
Slye replaces a kicker we pulled after finding a real roster-stability concern (see below) -- chosen for solid odds (-130) and a real edge (+1.62) once that seat opened up.
A Real Swap: Why Jason Sanders Isn't Here
Jason Sanders was in an earlier draft of this list. He's on the Jets' practice squad, not the active roster, and is being elevated week-to-week while the team carries Blake Grupe on the active roster as a direct competitor. Multiple outlets have described this as an open kicking competition, not a settled job. His actual kicking has been fine (3-of-4 FG Week 1, 1-of-1 Week 2) -- the issue is roster stability, not performance, and it's a different kind of risk than anything else on this list. We swapped him for Joey Slye rather than publish a pick riding on a practice-squad elevation.
The Model's Known Blind Spot: Cameron Dicker
Cameron Dicker (LAC) still shows the single largest edge on the entire board (+3.06) and is still not a pick. The real sportsbook line on Dicker has dropped from 8.5 to 5.5 this week after he scored just 4 total kicking points across his first two real games. Our model hasn't fully absorbed that decline yet -- it's a data-blend gap, not the same issue that flagged a different kicker back in Week 1. We're treating this as a standing exclusion: Dicker stays flagged every week until there's real evidence he's turned things around, not just because a given week's math happens to clear our usual threshold.
Week 2 Recap: 2-3, -2.14 Units
Season record through two weeks: 5-5, -1.75 units.
| Kicker | Team | Market | Pick | Actual | Result | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddy Pineiro | SF | Kicking Pts O/U | O 7.5 (-135) | 5 | Loss | -1.35u |
| Harrison Butker | KC | FG Made O/U | O 1.5 (-126) | 4 | Win | +1.00u |
| Cam Little | JAX | PAT Made O/U | O 1.5 (-179) | 1 | Loss | -1.79u |
| Nick Folk | ATL | Kicking Pts O/U | O 6.5 (+105) | 3 | Loss | -1.00u |
| Chase McLaughlin | TB | FG Made O/U | O 1.5 (-149) | 4 | Win | +1.00u |
Both of our largest Week 2 edges (Pineiro, Folk) missed. That result is a direct part of why Week 3 got extra scrutiny -- including the individual box-score checks on Fairbairn, Carlson, and Reichard above, and the new odds and value rules.
How Our NFL Kicker Betting Model Works
The real inputs: Each kicker's projected field goals made and PATs made come from that team's actual 2025 field-goal-attempts-per-game and touchdowns-per-game (TeamRankings.com), scaled by this week's Vegas-implied team total divided by that team's own 2025 points-per-game -- not the league average, which matters a lot for teams whose normal scoring level is far from average.
Kicker accuracy: Each kicker's real 2025 field-goal percentage (Pro-Football-Reference) sets how many of those projected attempts actually go in.
Wind: We pull real per-game wind descriptions and apply an actual discount to the field-goal projection on windy days (10–15 mph = 3% off, 15–20 mph = 7% off, 20 mph+ = 15% off). This week, every outdoor Week 1 game shows calm-to-light wind, so the factor is a wash across the board -- the mechanism is real and ready for the first windy Sunday.
What's context, not math: Opponent red-zone defense, home/away attempt splits, and injury status are real and sourced, but they're shown as context next to each projection rather than folded into the number itself.
Also: Does starting 2-1 matter in the NFL? We have the data.
FAQ
What is a kicker prop bet?
A kicker prop bet is a wager on an individual kicker's statistical output in a game -- most commonly total kicking points (Over/Under), field goals made, or extra points made -- rather than on the outcome of the game itself.
How are NFL kicking points scored for betting purposes?
Sportsbooks generally count a made field goal as 3 points and a made extra point as 1 point toward a kicker's "kicking points" total, regardless of field-goal distance.
Which sportsbooks post the most NFL kicker props?
Coverage varies by book and by week. In Week 1 2026, bet365 and DraftKings carried live kicking-points lines for the largest number of individual kickers among the books we checked.
How did the kicker prop model do in Week 1?
3-2 against real box scores, for a net of +0.39 units on a risk-to-win-1-unit basis.
How did the model do in Week 2?
2-3, for a net of -2.14 units. Season total through two weeks: 5-5, -1.75 units.
Why isn't Cameron Dicker a pick this week despite the largest edge?
Because the real market has already priced in a decline our model hasn't fully caught up to yet. We'd rather name that gap than publish a pick built on stale data.
What are the new betting rules for Week 3?
No pick is published at odds worse than -150, and when two candidates show a similar edge, we lean toward the one with better odds rather than the bigger number.
Data: TeamRankings.com, Pro-Football-Reference, RotoWire NFL Weather, ESPN, Sleeper, DraftKings, bet365 via Action Network. Model is unofficial and for informational purposes only.
