NFL Picks and Props for Week 1
The 2026 National Football League heads into the first Sunday of the regular season, and it can be a little bit of a challenge. What was real last season might not necessarily be the same this season. We've also seen two low-scoring games played so far on Wednesday and Thursday in Seattle and Melbourne, Australia.
According to the projected point totals, the New Orleans Saints and Detroit Lions, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cincinnati Bengals, are expected to be the highest-scoring contests of the weekend. Let's focus on those two battles and get started!
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New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions Prop Plays
*Best lines at time of writing listed
The Saints and Lions meet at 1:00 p.m. ET at Ford Field on FOX.
The Saints head into this game without EDGE rusher Cameron Jordan, who is out due to a hamstring injury. That's great news for QB Jared Goff, who will have that much more time to operate behind his offensive line.
New Orleans allowed just 3,336 passing yards in 2025, the fifth-fewest yardage allowed through the air. Despite that, Detroit should get off to a very nice start, especially Goff, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, and WR Jameson Williams.
Let's go high on Goff's passing yardage, and if you shop around the books, the difference can be as much as six yards. Every little bit helps.
In addition, St. Brown is a strong play to get his 2026 season off on the right foot with at least one touchdown reception, or perhaps even a run on a gadget play. That would count, too. BetMGM is the only book offering plus-money on a St. Brown Anytime TD.
Plus, starting on the road against a contender in hostile territory will almost certainly lead to at least one miscue from New Orleans Saints QB Tyler Shough. It's hard to believe that the interception props are so low, actually. Take advantage.
And, with a projected high-scoring game and the Lions playing at home, we'll look for Jake Bates of the Lions to get frequent opportunities in the kicking game.
Best Prop Pick: Lions QB Jared Goff - Over 260.5 Passing Yards (-111 DraftKings)
Best Prop Pick: Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown - Anytime TD (+105 BetMGM)
Best Prop Pick: Saints QB Tyler Shough - Over 0.5 Interceptions (-105 BetMGM)
Best Prop Pick: Lions PK Jake Bates - Over 8.5 Kicking Points (-111 DraftKings)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals Prop Plays
*Best lines at time of writing listed
The Buccaneers and Bengals get together at Paycor Stadium on the banks of the Ohio River in Cincinnati at 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
This is projected to be the highest-scoring game of the weekend, as the books are expecting Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and Bengals QB Joe Burrow to put on a show.
Mayfield certainly knows the Bengals well from his days with the Cleveland Browns. He'll get to face a Cincinnati passing defense which allowed 4,244 passing yards, seventh-most in the NFL in 2025.
Mayfield begins life without WR Mike Evans, who is now in San Francisco, but WR Emeka Egbuka proved in his rookie season that he is more than capable of handling a heavy workload.
Egbuka is a good bet to go Over his yardage projections, and, again, if you shop around, and multiple sportsbooks are available to you, it can be a difference of a few yards.
We're also looking for Kenneth Gainwell to get off to a nice start with Mayfield. He proved to be a fantastic option catching the ball out of the backfield in his previous stops, and he'll be used frequently in that same capacity in Week 1 and beyond.
The Buccaneers were very good against the run last season, so don't look for RB Chase Brown to have a big game on the ground. But, we'll certainly be looking to QB Joe Burrow to get off to a big start. After a couple of seasons with some injuries woes, he is looking to get off to a big start, and he should hit the ground running, err...passing.
Let's also take Mayfield to toss at least two touchdown passes, too.
Best Prop Pick: Buccaneers WR Emeka Egbuka - Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Buccaneers RB Kenneth Gainwell - Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-115 BetMGM)
Best Prop Pick: Bengals QB Joe Burrow - Over 269.5 Passing Yards (-114 Caesars)
Best Prop Pick: Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield - Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-106 DraftKings)
Best Prop Plays - Week 1
Best Prop Pick: Lions QB Jared Goff - Over 260.5 Passing Yards (-111 DraftKings)
Best Prop Pick: Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown - Anytime TD (+105 BetMGM)
Best Prop Pick: Saints QB Tyler Shough - Over 0.5 Interceptions (-105 BetMGM)
Best Prop Pick: Lions PK Jake Bates - Over 8.5 Kicking Points (-111 DraftKings)
Best Prop Pick: Buccaneers WR Emeka Egbuka - Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Buccaneers RB Kenneth Gainwell - Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-115 BetMGM)
Best Prop Pick: Bengals QB Joe Burrow - Over 269.5 Passing Yards (-114 Caesars)
Best Prop Pick: Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield - Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-106 DraftKings)
