NFL Picks and Props for Week 3
The 2026 National Football League is already in Week 3. Doesn't it seem like we just started? If you're like me, you think about things way too much. We're 11.1 percent of the way through the season already! Where has the time gone?
In all seriousness, though, we're starting to get some valuable information, but some teams are playing in their first road game, or, in some cases, their first home game. We'll have an even better idea after Week 3, as everyone will have played at home and on the road.
The big scoring games are expected to the Los Angeles Chargers-Buffalo Bills game, and Baltimore Ravens-Dallas Cowboys game, with expected totals of 50 or higher. We'll focus on at least one of those games, but there is value to be had elsewhere. Let's get started!
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Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins Prop Plays
*Best lines at time of writing listed
I am absolutely stunned by QB Patrick Mahomes. I know I shouldn't say things like this, but I haven't been a fan of his. He is a great player, and there is no denying that. But, this season, I have really been amazed by him. He suffered the ACL injury last December, and normally that keeps a player out for nearly a year before he is back to 100 percent. Not only is Mahomes healthy enough to play, but he is not tentative, running frequently, and looking like himself.
The Dolphins defense has allowed 447 passing yards, five touchdowns and 8.6 yards per passing attempt. Mahomes is going to go off in this game. I think Mahomes does especially well in the first half, as Kansas City builds a big lead, before the run game takes over to protect said lead. We'll take Mahomes to go Over his first-half pass projection.
As mentioned, I think the Chiefs salt the game away with the run game in the second half, protecting a big road lead. That's where RB Kenneth Walker III comes in. He has gone for 117 or more rushing yards in each of his first two games, and there is no reason to believe Miami will provide much more than a speed bump in this one.
With plenty of points come plenty of opportunities in the kicking game, too. PK Harrison Butker will likely have more point-after attempts than field-goal chances, though. As such, his projection of 8.5 points is a bit on the high side. Let's say K.C. goes for 38 points. That's five PATs and a field goal, or just eight points. Go low.
A big lead for the Chiefs in the second half will likely lead to more passing attempts for Dolphins QB Malik Willis. He is averaging 25.0 pass attempts in the first two games. We'll go high on this attempts, and we'll also take him to throw at least one interception, too.
Best Prop Pick: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes Over 130.5 1ST Half Pass Yards (-112 DraftKings)
Best Prop Pick: Chiefs RB Kenneth Walker III Over 80.5 Rushing Yards (-125 Fanatics)
Best Prop Pick: Chiefs PK Harrison Butker Under 8.5 Kicking Points (-125 BetMGM)
Best Prop Pick: Dolphins QB Malik Willis Over 26.5 Pass Attempts (-125 BetMGM)
Best Prop Pick: Dolphins QB Malik Willis Over 0.5 Interceptions (-110 BetMGM)
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys Prop Plays
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Oh, boy. Heaven help the Dallas Cowboys rush defense, as Ravens RB Derrick Henry meet the Cowboys in Rio de Janeiro in Brazil, and he brings a head of steam.
Dallas ranks 29th in the NFL, allowing 5.0 yards per rush attempt through the first two games, while allowing 347 rushing yards, including two runs of 20+ yards. Henry is going to stay hot, as he is averaging 5.3 yards per attempt, while posting four rushing scores through two games. We'll not only go high on King Henry to get to 90+ yards, but he should be able to rip off a run of at least 19 yards in this game, too.
On the flip side, Cowboys WR Dak Prescott is going to take to the air early and often, looking to exploit a Baltimore defense which has allowed teams to hit 70.8 percent of pass attempts for 418 passing yards and 6.4 yards per attempt. Baltimore has allowed seven pass plays of 20+ yards, and Prescott will likely add to that with his cadre of deep threats.
For Dallas, TE Jake Ferguson figures to have a good game, too. Baltimore allowed 66 receiving yards to New Orleans TE Juwan Johnson in Week 1, and it allowed Indianapolis TE Tyler Warren to score a touchdown in last week's OT win. For a chance to nearly triple up with Ferguson as an Anytime Scorer, sign us up!
Best Prop Pick: Ravens RB Derrick Henry Over 89.5 Rushing Yards (-113 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Ravens RB Derrick Henry Over 18.5 Yards - Longest Rush (-120 Bet365)
Best Prop Pick: Cowboys QB Dak Prescott Over 36.5 Pass Attempts (-110 Bet365)
Best Prop Pick: Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson Anytime TD Scorer (+275 Bet365)
Best Prop Plays - Week 3
Best Prop Pick: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes Over 130.5 1ST Half Pass Yards (-112 DraftKings)
Best Prop Pick: Chiefs RB Kenneth Walker III Over 80.5 Rushing Yards (-125 Fanatics)
Best Prop Pick: Chiefs PK Harrison Butker Under 8.5 Kicking Points (-125 BetMGM)
Best Prop Pick: Dolphins QB Malik Willis Over 26.5 Pass Attempts (-125 BetMGM)
Best Prop Pick: Dolphins QB Malik Willis Over 0.5 Interceptions (-110 BetMGM)
Best Prop Pick: Ravens RB Derrick Henry Over 89.5 Rushing Yards (-113 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Ravens RB Derrick Henry Over 18.5 Yards - Longest Rush (-120 Bet365)
Best Prop Pick: Cowboys QB Dak Prescott Over 36.5 Pass Attempts (-110 Bet365)
Best Prop Pick: Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson Anytime TD Scorer (+275 Bet365)
