NFL Picks and Props for Week 4
The National Football League 2026 regular season nears the quarter pole, and we continue to get all kinds of great information. We're still trying to figure out a few teams, though. Are the Cleveland Browns and Minnesota Vikings for real? Are the Houston Texans, Los Angeles Chargers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers really this bad?
A lot of things have been going according to plan, but there are still a lot of surprises week in and week out. We've had our share of bad injuries, too, clouding the short-term future for some teams.
The sportsbooks are expecting plenty of points in Week 4, as there are three games with expected totals of 50 or higher, including the Sunday Night Football battle between the Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers. There are seven games on the board with totals of 47 or higher, and another on Monday night, too. Let's get started!
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Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prop Plays
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Well, I mentioned the expected high-scoring totals above. The 'Bay of Pigs' battle, coined by the late Pete Axthelm, features the Packers and Buccaneers renewing their old NFC Central Division rivalry. I went to a few of these Pack-Bucs games back in the day at the Old Sombrero, too, when I lived in Florida. You never got to see mediocre NFL football unless you saw Don Majkowski and Brent Fullwood battling Sylvester Stamps and Vinny Testaverde.
The Buccaneers might wish they had Testaverde or Doug Williams or Trent Dilfer right about now, as Baker Mayfield suffered a dislocated thumb last week, and Tampa Bay is forced to turn to undrafted free-agent Jalon Daniels for his first NFL start. Daniels, the California kid, who starred at the University of Kansas, is green, and he is going to make mistakes.
The Packers rank 11th in the NFL against the pass, and they've recorded two interceptions. They've also limited teams to five pass plays of 20+ yards, while recording seven sacks. Is Green Bay the best defense? No. But, it is in the upper half of the league, and it will use all kinds of disguises to throw off the newcomer.
Tampa probably won't ask Daniels to put it up much, but we just need him to make one interception on an overthrow, or a misread of the coverage and we're good.
In addition, it is likely that Jordan Love isn't tasked with throwing down the field much, either. I am assuming that Green Bay is going to lean upon either Kaleb Johnson, MarShawn Lloyd, etc. in the run game, while putting it up as few times as possible. Let's go low on Love's passing yardage total.
If anybody stars for the Bucs, it will be PK Chase McLaughlin, who needs seven points. That's two field goals and an extra point, and we're golden. At plus-money, this is a nice value play.
The Packers had an ugly showing against the Atlanta Falcons last time out on a Thursday night. I expect a major shift in how Green Bay tries to do things on offense. With the Josh Jacobs off-the-field indiscretion, and his placement on the Commissioner's Exempt List to start the season, RB MarShawn Lloyd was given a golden opportunity to establish himself. He has been mediocre to subpar. RB Kaleb Johnson was acquired from the Pittsburgh Steelers near the end of preseason, and the time might be now to switch gears and see what Johnson is capable of doing with a full workload.
Best Prop Pick: Buccaneers QB Jalon Daniels Over 0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-140 BetMGM)
Best Prop Pick: Packers QB Jordan Love Under 246.5 Passing Yards (-125 Bet365)
Best Prop Pick: Buccaneers PK Chase McLaughlin Over 6.5 Kicking Points (+105 Fanatics)
Best Prop Pick: Packers RB Kaleb Johnson Over 8.5 Rush Attempts (-115 Bet365)
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers Prop Plays
*Best lines at time of writing listed
In the Sunday Night Football matchup, the toothless Lions defense faces the high-octane Panthers offense. A couple of buddies of mine wanted to go to this game, and asked if I was interested. When I saw ticket prices in the triple figures, I declined. I am cheap, and I'd rather work and see all of the games on TV, anyway.
If I WAS going to attend a game, though, it would be primetime. There's just something special about seeing games under the lights. And, we should get a lot of exciting offense on SNF, too.
In Week 1, the Panthers allowed 59 points to the Chicago Bears, while posting 37 of their own. QB Bryce Young threw up three touchdowns in each of the first two games before the Cleveland Browns threw a blanket on him in Week 3. Look for Young to snap back into form in a big game, going for big yardage and at least two passing touchdowns. The Lions are last in the NFL with 979 passing yards allowed through three games, with 16 pass plays of 20+ yards allowed.
Someone is going to have to camp under those passes, too, and WR Jalen Coker is questionable due to a quadriceps injury. He practiced on a limited basis Thursday and Friday, while WR Xavier Legette (knee) landed on the reserve/injured list this weekend. So, it looks like a prime matchup for second-year WR Tetairoa McMillan to re-establish himself after a slow start.
Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs has been on a role in the early going, posting 307 rushing yards, or 102.3 rushing yards per game (YPG), while totaling 156 receiving yards, or 52.0 YPG. He has six total touchdowns, too. The Carolina defense was crushed by the Bears, and the Lions have a much better offense than Chicago. Look for Gibbs to continue rolling a ridiculous amount of scrimmage yardage and scores.
Meanwhile, Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard won't want to be overshadowed, though, he still will be. Gibbs is one of the best in the game. Still, this is Hubbard's chance to introduce himself to America, and he'll face a soft Lions defense. Hubbard has seen his rushing attempts and yards increase in every game this season, totaling 82 rushing yards and 110 total scrimmage yards in Week 3 at Cleveland.
Best Prop Pick: Panthers QB Bryce Young Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115 DraftKings
Best Prop Pick: Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115 Bet365)
Best Prop Picks: Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs Over 134.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Picks: Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard Over 83.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards (-115 BetMGM)
Best Prop Plays - Week 4
Best Prop Pick: Buccaneers QB Jalon Daniels Over 0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-140 BetMGM)
Best Prop Pick: Packers QB Jordan Love Under 246.5 Passing Yards (-125 Bet365)
Best Prop Pick: Buccaneers PK Chase McLaughlin Over 6.5 Kicking Points (+105 Fanatics)
Best Prop Pick: Packers RB Kaleb Johnson Over 8.5 Rush Attempts (-115 Bet365)
Best Prop Pick: Panthers QB Bryce Young Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115 DraftKings
Best Prop Pick: Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115 Bet365)
Best Prop Picks: Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs Over 134.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Picks: Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard Over 83.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards (-115 BetMGM)
