The NFL's Week 5 referee assignments carry real news alongside the usual betting angles: Adrian Hill is serving a one-game suspension, the first for a referee mid-season in NFL history, and Clay Martin is subbing in for his crew at Bears-Packers. Line judge Jeff Seeman is serving the first multi-game suspension for an on-field official in nearly 50 years.
Below is our full breakdown, now built on 1,948 games across 17 officials rather than a single season or a hot month.
The interactive widget below lets you browse the Top 5 leaderboards across all five betting metrics, or scroll to any Week 5 game to see that crew's full report card.
Also make time for RotoWire's Most Hated NFL Referees ranking.
NFL Week 5 Referee Assignments
Fifteen games this week (Chiefs and Panthers are on bye). Alex Moore opens the week in Dallas; Alan Eck and most of his crew are off.
| Matchup | Referee |
|---|---|
| Buccaneers @ Cowboys (Thu) | Alex Moore |
| Eagles vs. Jaguars (London) | Ron Torbert |
| Bears @ Packers | Clay Martin (for Adrian Hill) |
| Bengals @ Dolphins | Brad Rogers |
| Raiders @ Patriots | Craig Wrolstad |
| Vikings @ Saints | John Hussey |
| Browns @ Jets | Bill Vinovich |
| Colts @ Steelers | Shawn Smith |
| Texans @ Titans | Alex Kemp |
| Giants @ Commanders | Clete Blakeman |
| Broncos @ Chargers | Shawn Hochuli |
| Lions @ Cardinals | Carl Cheffers |
| 49ers @ Seahawks | Land Clark |
| Ravens @ Falcons | Brad Allen |
| Bills @ Rams (Mon) | Scott Novak |
Adrian Hill himself has no assignment this week -- not a bye, a suspension -- so his career numbers (46% home ATS, 49% favorite ATS, -1.1 points per game vs. the total across 115 games) sit out this update untouched.
Which Referees Lean Toward the Home Team?
John Hussey remains the league leader at 61% home-field covers across 114 games since 2019 — he works Vikings-Saints this week. Alan Eck (57%, off this week) and Carl Cheffers (54%, Lions-Cardinals) follow.
| Referee | Home ATS% | Games |
|---|---|---|
| John Hussey | 61% | 114 |
| Alan Eck | 57% | 53 |
| Carl Cheffers | 54% | 112 |
| Clete Blakeman | 54% | 114 |
| Shawn Smith | 52% | 111 |
Bill Vinovich (Browns-Jets) holds the league's top away-ATS mark at 61% across 114 games, with Scott Novak (Bills-Rams) right behind at 60% — real patterns worth tracking, though neither clears the stricter bar once you account for testing all 17 officials at once.
Favorite vs. Underdog Trends by Referee
Favorites have covered 68% of the time in Alan Eck's 53 career games as a lead referee — still the strongest favorite lean in the league and the one favorite/underdog split in this dataset that holds up as a genuine pattern, even with Eck off this week. Alex Kemp (58%, Texans-Titans) and Ron Torbert (55%, in London for Eagles-Jaguars) follow. On the opposite end, favorites have covered just 40% of the time under both Clay Martin (subbing for Hill at Bears-Packers) and Bill Vinovich.
Total Points: Over/Under Trends by Referee
Average points scored versus the closing total, top five after four weeks:
| Referee | Pts vs. Total | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Shawn Smith | +1.9 pts | 111 |
| Clay Martin | +1.5 pts | 111 |
| Brad Rogers | +1.4 pts | 111 |
| Brad Allen | +1.3 pts | 113 |
| John Hussey | +1.1 pts | 114 |
None of these totals splits clear statistical significance, including Smith's at the top. This remains the split we'd trust least of the four.
NFL Referee Penalty Trends
Alan Eck's crews are calling 10.9 combined penalties per game against a league average near 12.5 -- still the single most defensible referee-level finding in this dataset once you correct for testing all 17 officials at once, now fully current through Week 4. Brad Allen (11.2 penalties/game, Ravens-Falcons) remains next-lowest.
Total Points: Over/Under Trends by Referee
Average points scored versus the closing total, top five after three weeks:
| Referee | Pts vs. Total | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Shawn Smith | +1.7 pts | 110 |
| Brad Rogers | +1.4 pts | 110 |
| Clay Martin | +1.4 pts | 110 |
| Brad Allen | +1.2 pts | 112 |
| John Hussey | +1.1 pts | 114 |
None of these totals splits clear statistical significance, including Smith's at the top. This remains the split we'd trust least of the four.
NFL Referee Penalty Trends
Alan Eck's crews are calling 10.9 combined penalties per game against a league average near 12.5 -- still the single most defensible referee-level finding in this dataset once you correct for testing all 17 officials at once, now fully current through Week 4. Brad Allen (11.2 penalties/game, Ravens-Falcons) remains next-lowest.
Also: see RotoWire's NFL Referee Stats for full season-by-season penalty breakdowns by crew.
What Week 4 Actually Told Us
• Carl Cheffers' Jets-Bears game saw Chicago cover comfortably as home favorites, while his crew's season-long favorite-ATS number held right around 43% -- one game, however clean, barely moves a 112-game sample.
• Scott Novak's Chargers-Seahawks assignment pushed exactly on a 7-point Seattle line, a reminder that even a well-supported lean resolves as a coin flip plenty of the time.
• No referee's Week 4 result was large enough on its own to flip any of the statistical-significance calls above -- the same honest conclusion every week so far.
How These NFL Referee Betting Trends Are Calculated
Every number above comes from nflverse closing-line and results data for 2019-2025, cross-referenced with Football Zebras' weekly crew assignments. We tested all 17 active referees across four metrics -- home ATS, favorite ATS, over/under performance and penalty rate -- and corrected for the fact that testing 17 officials at once will turn up a few "significant" results by chance alone.
Only one finding survived that correction: Alan Eck's penalty rate. Everything else here, including the home-ATS and favorite-ATS numbers we've highlighted, is best described as suggestive rather than proven -- a real pattern in the data that hasn't yet cleared the bar to call it a hard edge.
NFL Referee Betting Trends FAQ
How are NFL referees assigned to games?
The league's officiating department sets weekly crew assignments based on rotation, travel logistics and internal performance grading from the previous week, not team matchups or storylines. There's no mechanism for a crew to be steered toward or away from a specific team.
When are NFL referee assignments announced?
Typically a few days before kickoff, via Football Zebras' weekly assignment post. That's why this page updates week by week as the season goes -- only Week 1 crews are locked in so far for 2026.
Which NFL referee has the strongest betting trend?
Alan Eck's penalty rate is the only referee-level finding in this dataset that survives correction for testing all 17 officials at once. His home-ATS and favorite-ATS numbers are the next-strongest patterns, though neither is statistically proven yet.
Do NFL referees affect the over/under?
Less than bettors assume. None of the 17 officials' totals splits clear statistical significance in our testing, including the highest (Shawn Smith, +1.9 points per game).
