2026 NFL Survivor Pool Grid: Picks, Win Odds & Strategy
An NFL survivor pool is the simplest game in fantasy football and the easiest one to lose: pick one team to win each week, never use the same team twice, and outlast everyone else in your pool. RotoWire's 2026 NFL Survivor Pool Grid does the hard part for you -- it ranks all 32 teams across all 18 weeks by win probability and survivor value (EV), so you can see this week's safest picks and plan the teams you're saving for later. Set it to your pool size, mark the teams you've used, and follow the gold star to each team's best matchup of the season.
Also be sure to check out RotoWire's NFL Franchise Defining Moments campaign ahead of Week 1.
| # | Team | EV | W% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 80.279.178.076.983.683.182.782.340.230.921.612.639.129.520.010.860.555.350.245.241.132.022.814.1————32.321.310.3-0.261.456.451.446.636.826.716.77.085.785.785.785.755.750.946.141.656.551.947.242.874.974.073.272.355.650.846.041.479.079.079.079.057.957.957.957.951.451.451.451.4 | 80.883.845.144.163.245.9BYE38.064.042.085.758.258.975.358.179.057.951.4 | ARI-11.581% | LV-13.084% | @BUF+1.545% | @SEA+2.044% | DEN-4.563% | @KC+1.546% | BYE | @LAR+4.038% | HOU-4.564% | @BAL+2.542% | ★NYJ-14.086% | NE-2.558% | @TB-3.059% | @LV-9.075% | SF-2.558% | @MIA-10.579% | KC-2.558% | @DEN-0.551% | |
| 2 | 69.768.867.866.939.031.824.517.646.741.135.430.044.538.432.326.447.942.437.031.853.549.244.940.8————67.766.365.063.728.919.610.31.462.460.057.655.254.550.446.342.474.374.374.374.341.236.030.725.662.161.160.059.140.835.430.024.939.834.228.623.367.067.067.067.057.057.057.057.0 | 70.242.849.747.750.755.7BYE68.433.863.756.674.344.062.643.642.767.057.0 | CLE-7.070% | @DEN+2.543% | NEPK50% | @CIN+1.048% | PHIPK51% | HOU-2.056% | BYE | IND-6.568% | @BAL+5.534% | @TEN-4.564% | @NYG-2.057% | ★TEN-8.574% | @CHI+2.044% | PIT-4.063% | @HOU+2.044% | @DAL+2.543% | WAS-6.067% | @IND-2.557% | |
| 3 | 68.966.463.961.532.822.913.03.581.181.181.181.155.050.145.240.678.978.978.978.9————55.050.946.742.762.960.357.855.373.272.772.371.948.142.536.931.662.159.456.754.155.151.046.942.956.152.248.344.575.375.375.375.350.546.742.939.269.169.169.169.145.245.245.245.245.145.145.145.1 | 70.238.081.157.678.9BYE57.264.273.451.063.557.358.275.352.569.145.245.1 | NO-7.070% | @BUF+4.038% | ★NYJ-11.581% | @CAR-2.558% | @ARI-10.579% | BYE | GB-2.557% | MIN-5.064% | @MIA-8.073% | NE-0.551% | TB-4.564% | CHI-2.557% | @ATL-2.558% | TEN-9.075% | @MIN-1.052% | NYG-6.569% | @CHI+1.545% | @GB+1.545% | |
| 4 | 64.360.857.253.867.064.061.058.145.438.030.523.442.534.526.418.745.438.030.523.471.469.367.265.157.452.447.442.658.253.448.543.971.669.567.565.5————65.962.759.456.344.136.328.621.281.781.781.781.773.173.173.173.151.949.947.946.060.860.660.460.240.636.331.927.861.861.861.861.8 | 66.268.649.346.749.372.560.060.772.7BYE67.648.181.773.153.060.942.961.8 | WAS-5.566% | @TEN-6.569% | @CHIPK49% | LAR+1.047% | @JAXPK49% | CAR-8.072% | DAL-3.560% | @WAS-3.561% | NYG-8.073% | BYE | PIT-6.068% | @DAL+0.548% | ★@ARI-12.082% | IND-8.073% | SEA-1.053% | HOU-3.561% | @SF+2.543% | @NYG-4.062% | |
| 5 | 59.059.059.059.011.42.3-6.8-15.634.329.825.421.222.615.89.02.413.04.2-4.6-13.022.015.08.01.415.87.6-0.7-8.546.044.042.040.112.94.1-4.8-13.221.113.96.8-0.116.98.90.9-6.746.044.042.040.1————21.013.86.6-0.327.922.116.410.950.649.648.547.455.955.955.955.917.417.417.417.4 | 59.016.236.626.217.625.620.147.117.524.821.147.1BYE24.730.951.255.917.4 | ★MIA-3.059% | @LAC+13.016% | @NO+4.537% | KC+8.526% | @NE+12.518% | BUF+8.526% | LAR+11.020% | @NYJ+1.047% | @SF+12.518% | SEA+9.025% | @DEN+10.521% | @CLE+1.047% | BYE | LAC+9.025% | DEN+6.531% | TEN-0.551% | @ARI-2.056% | @KC+12.517% | |
| 6 | 58.457.456.355.227.520.112.75.633.627.421.215.312.41.9-8.7-18.732.726.319.913.834.128.122.016.263.763.763.763.726.421.717.012.6————34.831.828.926.121.816.210.55.222.917.512.17.047.346.946.646.221.816.210.55.249.149.149.149.148.848.848.848.842.842.842.842.825.425.425.425.4 | 59.031.436.817.936.037.363.728.8BYE36.324.725.747.524.749.148.842.825.4 | NYJ-3.059% | PHI+6.531% | @NYG+4.537% | @BAL+12.018% | HOU+4.536% | @IND+4.537% | ★CLE-4.564% | @CIN+7.529% | BYE | JAX+4.536% | @DAL+9.025% | @JAX+8.526% | WAS+1.048% | @DET+9.025% | IND+0.549% | @LV+0.549% | PIT+2.543% | @HOU+8.525% | |
| 7 | 58.454.550.646.835.526.818.29.943.336.329.322.549.343.437.632.168.166.164.262.3————24.814.03.2-7.270.469.067.566.150.444.839.233.956.852.548.244.148.742.836.831.267.765.763.761.866.464.161.859.641.934.527.220.249.744.038.332.850.444.839.233.937.529.321.013.277.677.677.677.6 | 60.540.047.052.369.1BYE30.571.253.359.051.868.867.645.752.753.341.877.6 | TB-3.560% | @HOU+3.540% | @PIT+1.047% | JAX-1.052% | @MIA-6.569% | BYE | @BAL+6.530% | TEN-7.571% | @ATL-1.053% | PIT-3.059% | @WAS-0.552% | NO-6.569% | @CLE-6.068% | KC+1.546% | @CAR-1.053% | @IND-1.053% | BAL+2.542% | ★CLE-10.078% | |
| 8 | 57.053.349.546.026.416.36.3-3.450.345.240.135.263.561.158.756.460.657.654.651.739.932.625.418.451.947.142.337.775.375.375.375.3————38.533.829.124.628.922.215.59.146.643.540.537.647.544.641.839.034.529.023.418.136.130.925.620.661.561.561.561.557.257.257.257.227.927.927.927.9 | 59.031.653.064.862.243.754.475.3BYE41.032.448.249.037.438.861.557.227.9 | ATL-3.059% | @NE+6.532% | CIN-1.053% | @CLE-5.065% | IND-4.062% | @TB+2.044% | @NO-1.554% | ★CLE-9.075% | BYE | @CIN+3.041% | @PHI+6.032% | DEN+0.548% | HOU+0.549% | @JAX+4.037% | BAL+3.539% | CAR-4.062% | @TEN-2.557% | @BAL+7.528% | |
| 9 | 57.351.345.239.579.477.976.474.949.341.633.926.581.580.579.478.364.760.255.751.378.476.775.073.367.463.459.555.742.333.224.115.363.759.054.349.754.547.941.335.064.159.454.750.350.342.835.328.1————70.166.763.360.058.152.246.440.786.886.886.886.856.553.350.147.172.172.172.172.1 | 60.580.253.382.167.179.369.547.166.258.066.554.2BYE71.961.286.858.272.1 | @IND-3.560% | NO-11.080% | @DAL-1.053% | TEN-12.082% | @ATL-6.067% | @CLE-11.079% | CIN-6.570% | @BUF+1.047% | JAX-5.566% | LAC-2.558% | @CAR-5.566% | @HOU-1.554% | BYE | TB-7.572% | @PIT-3.561% | ★CLE-15.087% | @CIN-2.558% | PIT-7.572% | |
| 10 | 57.250.944.538.583.282.281.280.360.755.149.444.152.044.737.330.254.347.440.433.846.838.329.921.854.247.240.333.661.355.950.445.288.088.088.088.075.275.275.275.2————42.435.729.022.561.458.655.853.175.175.175.175.144.940.936.933.147.944.641.237.964.464.464.464.437.837.837.837.8 | 60.583.763.655.957.951.257.864.288.075.2BYE45.962.975.147.049.764.437.8 | NE-3.560% | @ARI-13.084% | @WAS-4.564% | LAC-2.056% | SF-2.558% | @DEN-0.551% | KC-2.558% | CHI-5.064% | ★ARI-15.588% | @LV-9.075% | BYE | @SF+1.546% | DAL-4.563% | NYG-9.075% | @PHI+1.047% | LARPK50% | @CAR-5.064% | @LAR+4.038% | |
| 11 | 54.849.544.339.360.956.953.049.247.140.333.527.080.380.380.380.340.534.027.421.255.251.648.144.847.041.836.631.631.423.014.66.661.158.856.554.3————72.071.971.871.839.132.325.519.054.050.346.543.072.372.372.372.334.530.125.721.555.955.955.955.954.854.854.854.851.251.251.251.2 | 57.563.050.780.343.957.049.735.862.3BYE72.042.756.072.336.855.954.851.2 | @CAR-2.558% | MIN-4.563% | PHIPK51% | ★NYJ-11.080% | @GB+2.044% | @ATL-2.557% | NEPK50% | @SEA+5.036% | TB-4.062% | BYE | NO-7.572% | @DET+2.543% | JAX-2.056% | @MIA-8.072% | @BUF+4.537% | GB-2.056% | DET-1.555% | @MIN-0.551% | |
| 12 | 54.047.340.634.266.061.857.553.541.932.723.614.839.930.320.711.560.755.450.145.040.130.621.011.934.423.713.02.786.686.686.686.656.352.348.444.747.942.236.631.275.375.375.375.349.845.841.938.133.225.918.511.4————26.818.09.31.055.953.150.447.869.269.269.269.256.756.756.756.7 | 57.568.246.744.963.545.140.086.658.350.875.351.937.1BYE31.357.369.256.7 | @NYG-2.558% | WAS-6.068% | BAL+1.047% | @HOU+1.545% | TB-4.564% | @GB+1.545% | @PHI+3.540% | ★ARI-14.587% | @IND-3.058% | SF-0.551% | TEN-9.075% | PHI-0.552% | @SEA+4.537% | BYE | @LAR+6.531% | JAX-2.557% | NYG-6.569% | @WAS-2.057% | |
| 13 | 53.846.839.833.172.469.266.063.076.474.071.669.372.168.865.662.4————50.042.234.427.036.726.215.65.644.835.927.018.584.283.482.681.960.454.849.143.788.088.088.088.038.529.420.311.730.620.09.3-0.950.944.437.931.753.147.141.035.353.047.040.935.137.227.918.69.782.682.682.682.6 | 57.574.177.673.8BYE54.142.249.484.663.488.043.236.254.356.356.242.182.6 | DEN-2.558% | IND-8.574% | @MIA-10.078% | @LV-8.574% | BYE | LAC-1.554% | @SEA+2.542% | @DENPK49% | NYJ-13.585% | @ATL-4.563% | ★ARI-15.588% | @BUF+2.543% | @LAR+4.536% | @CIN-1.554% | NE-2.056% | SF-2.056% | @LAC+2.542% | LV-12.583% | |
| 14 | 53.846.839.833.178.977.175.273.453.846.839.833.149.141.233.225.560.154.448.743.288.088.088.088.079.077.375.674.059.053.147.341.867.363.159.055.187.387.387.387.3————69.869.869.869.863.262.161.059.950.246.442.639.068.768.768.768.748.645.241.938.764.864.864.864.862.262.262.262.2 | 57.579.957.553.363.188.079.962.069.487.3BYE69.863.852.268.750.364.862.2 | SF-2.558% | NYG-11.080% | @DEN-2.558% | @PHI-1.053% | BUF-4.563% | ★ARI-15.588% | @LV-11.080% | LAC-4.062% | @WAS-6.569% | @ARI-15.087% | BYE | GB-7.070% | KC-4.564% | @SF-0.552% | DAL-6.569% | @SEAPK50% | @TB-5.065% | SEA-4.062% | |
| 15 | 51.345.038.832.969.667.264.862.466.964.061.058.146.839.632.525.753.147.241.435.851.745.639.533.638.229.320.411.866.363.160.057.032.722.612.63.061.056.852.648.6————24.012.20.4-10.858.854.149.445.044.837.229.722.581.581.581.581.542.740.037.334.755.855.855.855.854.954.954.954.9 | 54.570.968.550.556.154.942.867.937.963.2BYE30.261.248.781.544.155.854.9 | @MIN-1.554% | @NYJ-7.571% | ATL-6.568% | @TBPK50% | CHI-2.056% | DAL-1.555% | @DET+2.543% | CAR-6.068% | @NE+4.038% | MIN-4.563% | BYE | @LAR+7.030% | @NO-3.561% | BUF+0.549% | ★MIA-12.082% | @CHI+2.044% | HOU-2.056% | DET-1.555% | |
| 16 | 50.743.536.229.359.153.648.142.851.244.036.930.053.647.040.334.031.019.78.4-2.473.070.367.765.1————48.941.333.726.455.349.042.736.775.873.771.669.686.086.086.086.053.446.940.434.240.331.122.013.247.339.531.824.360.655.650.645.846.038.030.022.477.475.874.372.885.085.085.085.0 | 54.562.054.957.136.974.4BYE52.958.676.986.056.845.151.363.250.278.285.0 | @HOU-1.554% | DET-4.062% | LAC-1.555% | NE-2.557% | @LAR+4.537% | @LV-8.574% | BYE | BAL-1.053% | @MIN-3.059% | @NYJ-9.577% | ★MIA-14.586% | KC-2.557% | @NE+1.545% | @GB-0.551% | CHI-4.563% | @DENPK50% | @MIA-10.578% | NYJ-13.585% | |
| 17 | 39.436.333.330.49.70.6-8.6-17.318.611.23.9-3.120.113.16.1-0.628.122.717.312.2————40.938.135.332.718.911.64.4-2.623.316.910.54.425.419.513.57.99.2-0.1-9.4-18.254.354.354.354.316.614.312.19.927.727.727.727.718.117.316.615.920.920.720.520.421.821.821.821.814.614.614.614.6 | 41.014.522.423.830.9BYE42.322.726.628.514.054.317.827.718.521.021.814.6 | @LV+3.041% | @SF+14.014% | KC+10.022% | @MIN+9.524% | CIN+6.531% | BYE | @NYJ+2.542% | NE+10.023% | DET+8.027% | @IND+7.528% | @BUF+14.514% | ★NYJ-1.554% | @DEN+12.018% | CHI+8.028% | @GB+12.018% | LAC+10.521% | BUF+10.522% | @NE+14.015% | |
| 18 | 40.336.131.927.942.739.035.331.759.459.158.858.540.236.031.827.8————23.515.98.20.948.846.444.041.628.722.115.59.240.336.131.927.947.444.641.939.330.224.017.711.735.530.325.220.236.331.326.321.560.760.760.760.746.244.041.839.836.332.127.923.933.128.223.418.756.756.756.756.7 | 42.544.659.542.4BYE27.550.132.142.548.833.538.238.960.747.338.535.656.7 | CHI+2.542% | @ATL+2.045% | @CLE-3.060% | DET+2.542% | BYE | @PHI+8.028% | TBPK50% | @GB+6.032% | DEN+2.542% | @NO+0.549% | BAL+5.534% | @TB+4.038% | @MIN+3.539% | ★NO-3.561% | CIN+1.047% | @PIT+4.038% | SEA+5.036% | ATL-2.057% | |
| 19 | 42.035.328.622.258.254.951.548.355.251.247.343.552.848.343.839.562.760.357.955.540.733.726.720.167.566.164.663.3————31.422.513.65.170.870.069.268.568.066.665.364.042.335.729.122.848.242.737.332.153.549.244.940.854.250.045.841.834.826.718.510.740.633.626.619.974.674.674.674.6 | 45.560.057.355.164.044.368.3BYE36.071.268.745.851.055.856.439.144.274.6 | BUF+1.546% | CIN-3.560% | @IND-2.557% | DAL-1.555% | @TEN-4.564% | @JAX+2.044% | NYG-6.568% | BYE | @LAC+4.536% | @CLE-7.571% | IND-6.569% | BAL+1.546% | @PIT-0.551% | @WAS-2.056% | JAX-2.056% | @PHI+3.539% | @GB+2.044% | ★TEN-8.575% | |
| 20 | 39.035.231.327.625.719.112.56.214.25.3-3.6-12.115.16.4-2.3-10.755.955.555.254.810.50.9-8.8-18.157.757.757.757.752.952.952.952.910.92.3-6.3-14.519.512.75.9-0.79.70.8-8.0-16.544.843.241.640.0————25.219.613.98.552.852.852.852.822.619.917.214.635.735.735.735.715.015.015.015.0 | 41.029.118.919.756.115.657.752.915.423.114.345.7BYE28.252.824.035.715.0 | @TEN+3.041% | GB+7.529% | @DET+11.519% | @CHI+11.020% | CLE-2.056% | @NE+13.516% | ★MIA-2.558% | LV-1.053% | @KC+13.515% | BUF+9.523% | @LAC+14.014% | @MIA+1.546% | BYE | DEN+7.528% | @ARI-1.053% | NE+9.524% | MIN+5.036% | @BUF+13.515% | |
| 21 | 41.834.827.720.932.323.314.35.639.231.724.116.876.276.276.276.252.750.347.945.6————61.460.860.259.632.425.819.313.038.733.428.123.133.527.220.814.827.019.311.74.461.460.860.259.660.760.059.258.527.219.612.04.745.541.637.834.159.758.857.856.964.364.364.364.348.848.848.848.8 | 45.537.043.276.253.9BYE61.735.841.436.831.061.761.131.247.560.264.348.8 | GB+1.546% | @CHI+4.537% | @TB+2.543% | ★MIA-9.576% | @NO-1.554% | BYE | IND-4.062% | @DET+5.036% | BUF+3.041% | @GB+4.537% | @SF+6.531% | ATL-4.062% | CAR-3.561% | @NE+6.531% | DET+1.048% | WAS-3.560% | @NYJ-5.064% | CHI+0.549% | |
| 22 | 38.734.329.925.754.853.852.751.628.121.514.98.646.743.941.138.529.623.417.111.140.937.033.129.334.028.623.318.234.829.624.419.445.142.038.936.033.828.423.017.8————35.730.725.720.939.635.431.227.258.658.358.057.840.436.332.328.448.145.743.240.860.160.160.160.143.343.343.343.3 | 41.055.431.548.132.943.036.837.546.736.6BYE38.341.858.842.549.460.143.3 | @PIT+3.041% | CAR-2.055% | @GB+6.532% | @NO+0.548% | BAL+6.033% | CHI+2.543% | SF+4.537% | @TB+4.038% | CIN+1.047% | KC+4.537% | BYE | @MIN+4.038% | DET+2.542% | @CLE-3.059% | @WAS+2.542% | TBPK49% | ★NO-3.560% | @CAR+2.043% | |
| 23 | 38.330.222.114.413.2-0.0-13.2-25.961.558.254.851.777.677.677.677.639.633.326.920.959.357.054.852.627.118.29.30.7————22.112.22.3-7.253.049.545.942.540.233.927.721.841.335.329.323.633.225.617.910.619.49.0-1.5-11.570.470.470.470.430.028.326.725.129.928.226.524.938.238.238.238.2 | 42.520.163.277.642.960.531.7BYE27.354.943.444.437.224.970.430.930.838.2 | DAL+2.542% | @LAR+11.020% | TEN-4.563% | ★ARI-10.078% | @WAS+2.543% | NO-3.560% | @HOU+6.532% | BYE | @PHI+8.027% | WAS-1.555% | JAX+2.043% | @IND+2.044% | SF+4.537% | @SEA+9.025% | CLE-7.070% | @DET+6.531% | @DAL+6.531% | PHI+4.038% | |
| 24 | 37.728.619.510.754.248.542.737.237.728.619.510.733.623.613.64.131.420.910.50.544.837.129.422.178.477.676.876.146.839.532.325.354.548.943.237.7————78.577.777.076.348.241.234.227.582.282.282.282.271.871.871.871.869.169.169.169.149.849.849.849.837.735.533.331.148.648.648.648.6 | 42.557.242.538.836.848.878.850.657.5BYE78.951.882.271.869.149.838.948.6 | @KC+2.542% | JAX-2.557% | LAR+2.542% | @SF+4.039% | @LAC+4.537% | SEA+0.549% | @ARI-10.579% | KCPK51% | @CAR-2.558% | BYE | LV-10.579% | @PIT-0.552% | ★MIA-12.082% | @NYJ-7.572% | @LV-6.569% | BUFPK50% | @NE+3.539% | LAC+0.549% | |
| 25 | 35.728.320.913.920.49.9-0.5-10.639.232.626.019.738.932.225.519.133.826.018.310.861.659.657.655.734.326.719.011.726.817.68.5-0.338.131.324.417.971.571.571.571.528.021.715.49.355.254.553.753.0————23.115.78.41.450.048.146.344.645.242.539.737.058.858.858.858.843.043.043.043.0 | 39.525.942.742.437.862.738.331.641.771.531.355.6BYE26.950.946.758.843.0 | BAL+3.540% | @KC+8.526% | HOU+2.543% | @WAS+2.542% | @PIT+4.038% | TEN-4.563% | @MIN+4.038% | @JAX+6.532% | DAL+3.042% | ★MIA-7.572% | @HOU+6.531% | NYG-2.056% | BYE | @PHI+8.027% | @TEN-0.551% | CIN+1.047% | @CLE-3.059% | JAX+2.543% | |
| 26 | 35.226.918.610.675.675.675.675.655.653.451.249.147.543.639.736.032.926.019.212.655.152.850.448.247.944.140.336.762.061.160.259.434.327.721.114.7————32.926.019.212.661.260.259.158.138.132.226.420.923.514.75.9-2.566.466.466.466.450.149.248.247.332.928.423.919.654.754.754.754.7 | 39.575.656.849.536.556.349.962.537.7BYE36.561.841.128.166.450.635.254.7 | @CIN+3.540% | ★CLE-9.076% | MIN-2.557% | GBPK50% | @DAL+4.536% | PIT-2.056% | @CARPK50% | ATL-4.062% | @CHI+4.038% | BYE | @DET+4.536% | CAR-4.062% | LAC+3.041% | @BAL+7.528% | NO-5.566% | @ATLPK51% | LAR+5.035% | @NO-1.555% | |
| 27 | 37.026.616.16.185.284.684.083.588.088.088.088.058.653.748.844.237.328.018.79.871.569.367.064.960.956.452.047.8————82.582.582.582.545.237.529.922.667.464.361.258.250.744.237.631.460.455.951.447.043.635.727.720.037.027.718.49.439.230.321.412.854.148.242.436.882.582.582.582.5 | 42.585.588.061.242.172.763.2BYE82.549.269.054.162.847.841.943.857.182.5 | @LAR+2.542% | MIA-14.086% | ★ARI-15.588% | DEN-4.061% | @SEA+2.542% | WAS-8.073% | @ATL-4.563% | BYE | LV-12.582% | @DAL+0.549% | MIN-6.569% | SEA-1.554% | @NYG-4.563% | LAR+0.548% | @LAC+2.542% | @KC+2.044% | PHI-2.557% | @ARI-12.582% | |
| 28 | 34.023.412.92.866.462.558.554.846.138.029.922.237.828.018.28.982.081.480.780.084.384.183.883.646.138.029.922.276.374.572.670.859.353.948.643.544.636.327.919.9————36.626.516.56.951.244.237.230.566.863.059.255.538.729.119.510.374.972.770.568.558.252.647.041.785.485.485.485.4 | 39.568.450.342.982.484.450.377.362.149.0BYE41.854.968.843.776.061.185.4 | @SEA+3.540% | PIT-6.568% | @JAXPK50% | @BUF+2.543% | LV-12.582% | NYJ-13.584% | @CHIPK50% | @MIA-10.077% | GB-4.062% | @DET+0.549% | BYE | @LAC+2.542% | BUF-1.555% | MIN-6.569% | @KC+2.044% | @NYJ-9.576% | DEN-3.561% | ★MIA-14.085% | |
| 29 | 27.021.716.411.321.014.47.91.639.036.233.330.633.129.024.921.042.840.838.736.716.89.42.0-5.134.330.526.723.021.314.88.32.131.427.022.618.325.920.414.89.5————52.952.952.952.931.329.327.325.441.241.241.241.228.225.522.920.39.83.4-3.0-9.241.241.241.241.222.422.422.422.4 | 29.824.440.535.243.920.736.324.733.728.8BYE52.932.441.229.613.241.222.4 | @JAX+7.030% | @TB+9.024% | CAR+3.040% | PIT+5.035% | @NYJ+2.044% | BAL+11.021% | @TEN+4.536% | @PIT+9.025% | @NO+5.534% | HOU+7.529% | BYE | ★LV-1.053% | CIN+6.032% | ATL+3.041% | @NYG+7.030% | @BAL+15.013% | IND+3.041% | @CIN+10.022% | |
| 30 | 29.621.713.76.027.419.010.52.432.525.217.810.756.353.851.348.955.753.150.548.022.412.93.4-5.7————35.829.122.415.926.117.38.60.342.336.931.526.445.841.136.432.068.568.568.568.551.950.849.648.542.639.536.533.657.557.557.557.539.438.637.837.031.829.427.024.843.343.343.343.3 | 33.831.836.457.657.127.3BYE39.330.645.148.268.552.544.257.539.833.043.3 | @PHI+5.534% | @DAL+6.032% | SEA+4.536% | IND-2.558% | NYG-2.557% | @SF+8.027% | BYE | PHI+3.539% | LAR+6.531% | @NYG+1.545% | CIN+0.548% | ★@ARI-6.568% | @TEN-1.052% | HOU+2.044% | ATL-2.558% | @MIN+3.540% | @JAX+6.033% | DAL+2.043% | |
| 31 | 24.514.34.2-5.613.30.8-11.6-23.662.159.757.354.949.244.239.134.242.836.329.923.835.427.419.511.942.235.729.122.9————65.463.661.860.148.543.238.033.022.511.91.3-8.826.116.26.4-3.034.626.518.410.635.127.219.211.528.819.510.21.374.074.074.074.039.338.036.835.645.345.345.345.3 | 29.819.863.451.946.139.545.6BYE66.351.228.031.238.839.333.674.039.945.3 | @DET+7.030% | @BAL+11.020% | LV-4.563% | ATL-0.552% | MIN+1.546% | @NYG+3.540% | PIT+1.546% | BYE | CLE-5.566% | CAR-0.551% | @CHI+7.528% | @CIN+6.531% | GB+3.539% | @CAR+3.539% | @TB+5.534% | ★ARI-8.574% | @ATL+3.540% | TB+1.545% | |
| 32 | 15.89.43.0-3.212.65.5-1.6-8.47.8-0.3-8.4-16.219.413.78.02.618.012.06.00.27.8-0.3-8.4-16.218.112.16.10.49.31.6-6.2-13.67.8-0.3-8.4-16.28.60.6-7.3-14.97.8-0.3-8.4-16.229.626.022.418.914.88.21.5-4.8————47.247.247.247.223.819.715.511.544.144.144.144.117.517.517.517.5 | 19.216.312.022.421.112.021.213.412.012.712.031.518.3BYE47.226.044.117.5 | @LAC+11.519% | SEA+13.016% | @SF+15.512% | @NYG+10.022% | DET+10.521% | @LAR+15.512% | DEN+10.521% | @DAL+14.513% | @SEA+15.512% | LAR+15.013% | @KC+15.512% | WAS+6.532% | PHI+12.018% | BYE | ★NYJ+1.047% | @NO+8.526% | LV+2.044% | SF+12.518% |
This week's best survivor picks — Week 1
Los Angeles Chargers (-11.5 vs. Arizona, ~81% to win) -- the safest board of Week 1. The Chargers host a Cardinals team the market projects as the NFL's weakest, and this is the highest win probability on the slate. The only reason to pass is that their schedule offers an even softer spot later, so bigger pools may bank this now and smaller pools can too.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-7 vs. Cleveland, ~70%) -- a clean second option that keeps the Chargers in your pocket. A touchdown-plus home favorite against a rebuilding Browns team.
Detroit Lions (-7 vs. New Orleans, ~70%) -- similar odds to Jacksonville, but note Detroit's best matchup grades out even better in a later week, so weigh whether you'd rather save them.
The contrarian angle: in a large pool, everyone piles onto the week's biggest favorite. If you're comfortable, a slightly lower-owned 70% team like Jacksonville or Detroit gives you separation if the chalk goes down. Use the grid's Huge pool setting to see how the rankings shift toward saving your elite teams.
Theo GremmingerSee Theo's personal rankings, tiers, and draft targets.View RankingsRotoWire Analyst
Ian HartitzSee Ian's personal rankings, tiers, and draft targets.View RankingsRotoWire Analyst
Jagger MaySee Jagger's personal rankings, tiers, and draft targets.View RankingsRotoWire Analyst
Jim CoventrySee Jim's personal rankings, tiers, and draft targets.View RankingsRotoWire Analyst
Jeff EricksonSee Jeff's personal rankings, tiers, and draft targets.View RankingsRotoWire Analyst
Jerry DonabedianSee Jerry's personal rankings, tiers, and draft targets.View RankingsRotoWire Analyst
Mario PuigSee Mario's personal rankings, tiers, and draft targets.View RankingsHow to use the survivor grid
● Pick your week at the top -- the EV, W% and matchup columns update to that week.
● Sort by EV to rank teams by survivor value, or by W% for pure win probability.
● Set your pool size -- small pools favor the safest pick now; large pools reward saving elite teams for their best weeks.
● Click a team to mark it used -- it stays flagged so you never double-pick (your picks save on your device).
● Watch the gold star -- it marks each team's single best matchup of the season, so you know who to save.
NFL survivor pool strategy
Survive first -- win probability is everything
You can't win in Week 1, but you can lose. Before any clever angle, your pick has to actually win. Start from the top of the grid and only move down the list for a deliberate reason.
Don't burn your best teams early
The hardest part of a survivor pool is that every team is a one-time use. A great team wasted on a Week 2 blowout is a great team you don't have in Week 14. The gold star flags each team's easiest matchup of the year -- try to spend teams at or near their best spot, not before it.
Match your risk to your pool size
In a small pool, just survive -- take the safest team available. In a large pool, surviving isn't enough; you need weeks where you're right and the field is wrong. That means occasionally fading the most popular favorite and saving your elite teams for later. The grid's pool-size setting re-weights EV to do this for you.
Mind the byes and Week 18
Teams on a bye can't be picked, which quietly shrinks your options in the weeks that matter most. And Week 18 is all divisional games with playoff seeding in flux -- the least predictable week of the year. Plan backward from those trouble spots.
Think in paths, not weeks
The best survivor players aren't choosing a Week 1 pick -- they're sketching a route through the whole season and picking the team that keeps that route open. Use the full 18-week grid to map which teams you want, and when.
How the numbers work
Week 1 uses the actual posted point spreads (consensus of ESPN Bet, FOX Sports and Covers). Weeks 2–18 are projected from 2026 Vegas win totals using a power-rating model with a standard home-field adjustment, and are refreshed each week as real lines are released. W% is each team's win probability that week. EV (survivor value) is that win probability adjusted for future opportunity cost -- it dips below a team's raw win odds when that team has a clearly better matchup coming, which is the grid's way of telling you to wait. This is analysis for entertainment, not betting advice.
More RotoWire NFL tools
● NFL Odds & Betting — live spreads, totals and moneylines
● NFL Player Projections & Rankings
● NFL Injury News — the last thing to check before you lock a pick
Frequently asked questions
What is an NFL survivor pool?
A survivor pool (also called an eliminator or knockout pool) is a season-long contest where you pick one NFL team to win each week. If your team wins, you advance; if it loses, you're out. The catch: you can only use each team once all season, so you can't just ride your favorite team every week. The last entry standing wins the pot.
How does a survivor pool work?
Each week you choose one team you believe will win their game. A win keeps you alive into the next week; a loss (and, in most pools, a tie) eliminates you. Because every team can be used only once across the full season, the real skill is deciding which weeks to spend your strongest teams — that's exactly what the grid above is built to help you plan.
Who should I pick in my survivor pool this week?
Use the grid: pick your current week at the top and sort by EV. The top of the list is the best combination of a high win probability now and low cost to your future weeks. As a rule, take the safest team you don't have a strong reason to save — and check the gold star, which flags whether a team has an easier matchup coming later.
Should I always pick the biggest favorite?
Not necessarily. The biggest favorite of the week is often a team you'll wish you had saved for a tougher week down the road, and in a large pool, picking the most popular team gives you no edge if it loses and everyone else survives. The grid's pool-size setting adjusts for exactly this: smaller pools reward the safest pick now, larger pools reward saving elite teams for their best matchups.
Can you reuse a team in a survivor pool?
No. In a standard survivor pool each team can be picked only once for the entire season. That's the core constraint that makes the format hard — win probability alone isn't enough, because spending a great team in Week 1 means you can't use them in Week 12. Mark teams as used in the grid and they'll stay flagged so you never double-pick.
Is a tie a loss in a survivor pool?
It depends on your pool's rules, but in most survivor pools a tie counts as a loss and eliminates you (or your pick), so ties are worth avoiding when a game looks close. A few pools count a tie as a survival or a push — always check your specific pool settings, because a rare NFL tie can end an otherwise perfect run.
How do you win an NFL survivor pool?
You win by being the last entry alive — which usually takes surviving 12 to 17 weeks. The winning approach isn't picking the best team every week; it's managing your teams like a budget: bank safe wins early, save your strongest teams for the weeks you'll need them, avoid the popular pick in big pools, and never get eliminated on a coin-flip you didn't have to take.
How often is the grid updated?
Week 1 uses the actual posted point spreads. The rest of the season is projected from 2026 Vegas win totals and refreshed each week as new lines are released, so the win probabilities sharpen as the games get closer. The "Updated" stamp at the top of the grid shows the current week.
Updated: Week [1], 2026 season. Data: RotoWire survivor model. For entertainment purposes only.
