Week 1 Survivor is always the hardest Survivor, for the simple reason we don't know anything. Oh, you think you know the Super Bowl contenders from the league's bottom feeders, but you don't. And even if you did, it might not matter anyway in Week 1.
Last season, the Seahawks lost their season opener and went on to win the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the Raiders won their season opener — against the Patriots! — before stumbling their way to No. 1 pick in the draft. Go figure.
Before we get to the picks, a few notes about our Survivor philosophy.
Our Survivor strategy is guided by two principles:
1. Survivor is not just about winning as long as possible — it's about surviving while everyone else does not. As such, our strategy seeks to explain not just how likely a team is to win but how much that win is worth to you. This is called the pot-odds. The best pot-odds comes when a team has a slightly lower chance of winning than the week's favorite but significantly less ownership. That doesn't happen most weeks, but when it does, it gives us an advantage to actually winning the pool (instead of merely surviving). For more reading on this strategy, go here and here.
2. Saving teams for later in the season is a fool's errand. A) We have no idea what the NFL will look like in a month or two — teams don't stay the same week
Week 1 Survivor is always the hardest Survivor, for the simple reason we don't know anything. Oh, you think you know the Super Bowl contenders from the league's bottom feeders, but you don't. And even if you did, it might not matter anyway in Week 1.
Last season, the Seahawks lost their season opener and went on to win the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the Raiders won their season opener — against the Patriots! — before stumbling their way to No. 1 pick in the draft. Go figure.
Before we get to the picks, a few notes about our Survivor philosophy.
Our Survivor strategy is guided by two principles:
1. Survivor is not just about winning as long as possible — it's about surviving while everyone else does not. As such, our strategy seeks to explain not just how likely a team is to win but how much that win is worth to you. This is called the pot-odds. The best pot-odds comes when a team has a slightly lower chance of winning than the week's favorite but significantly less ownership. That doesn't happen most weeks, but when it does, it gives us an advantage to actually winning the pool (instead of merely surviving). For more reading on this strategy, go here and here.
2. Saving teams for later in the season is a fool's errand. A) We have no idea what the NFL will look like in a month or two — teams don't stay the same week to week, let alone all year. B) You're likely to be eliminated before you even get to use that saved pick. C) If you save a team for the week it faces the worst team in the league, guess what? The majority of your pool is probably using that team too. In that case, the smart play is no longer the team you saved, the smart play is a pot-odds pick — taking the next-best team with the hope that everyone goes down with the most popular pick.
That said, RotoWire has a nifty tool to help plan week-by-week picks, should you so choose.
And speaking of nifty tools, below is a detailed chart to help us figure out what a pick is worth. Heretofore, this column would scribble some quick math to calculate the pot-odds each, comparing the risk ratio and reward ratio of fading the week's top team in favor of the next-best team. Well, now we have a handy chart for that. No more mathing.
The chart shows a team's Vegas odds (the consensus of 10 sportsbooks with the vig removed) and its projected ownership, which is based on pick percentages from SurvivorGrid.com.
Expected Value is the projected worth of your pool entry based on the team you pick. Anything higher than 1.0 is positive value. The higher the EV, the higher your odds have improved of winning. Some weeks, a lesser favorite will have a higher EV because of lower ownership — again, that's our goal.
Be sure to join RotoWire's $100K Survivor contest on Splash Sports. Enter for only $15.
*Rams vs. 49ers at Melbourne
As we can see from the chart, there is no pot-odds play this week. The top-3 teams have similar EVs, so go with your gut.
My gut is split on the Jaguars and Chargers. I'll go with the Jaguars, because the Browns look so bad, though I reserve the right to flip to the Chargers. If so, I'll note it in the comments.
Picks below are in order of preference.
My Picks
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Browns)
Deshaun Watson "won" the Browns' starting QB job this preseason but didn't look great. He missed all last season with an Achilles injury and turns 31 the day after this game. As a birthday present, he gets to face a Jacksonville defense that finished second in takeaways last year, including 22 interceptions, also second. The Browns have a new starting offensive line, but that doesn't mean it will be much better than last year's disaster. Oh, and the Cleveland defense no longer has Myles Garrett. Picking the Jaguars this week is a bet that Cleveland is worse than Arizona (see below).
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Cardinals)
The Chargers got a lot of buzz this offseason with the hiring of offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel. The Cardinals' new hire, head coach Mike LaFleur, got considerably less buzz. Well, no buzz. LaFleur is of the Shanahan/McVay lineage, and those offspring generally have fared well as head coaches and playcallers (including Mike's brother Matt in Green Bay), so perhaps he will too. But he doesn't have much of a quarterback in Jacoby Brissett, his starting running back, rookie Jeremiyah Love, is banged up and his defense looks to be terrible again. No surprise, the Chargers are a double-digit favorite.
Detroit Lions (vs. Saints)
The Saints are an intriguing team to some extent. QB Tyler Shough's inaccuracy throwing deep and, with Jordyn Tyson's injury, the absence of a solid second wide receiver behind Chris Olave are problems, however. The Lions' offensive line is a work in progress, but it struggled last season and Jared Goff and company still flourished. The Saints got better defensively as last season progressed, though most of those gains came against weak offenses. And now Cameron Jordan is injured. The Lions should come out firing.
Seattle Seahawks (vs. Patriots)
The NFL kicks off with a repeat of last year's Super Bowl as the world champs look to thump the Patriots once again. But this isn't the same matchup as last February. The Seahawks are severely banged up in the secondary, down to practice squad safeties, other than Julian Love. Combine that with the Patriots' additions of wide receivers A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs this offseason, and Drake Maye might not be the sitting duck he was last February. With a revved-up crowd at its back, the Seahawks should still win, but it doesn't look like the slam dunk the Super Bowl was.
NOTABLE OMISSIONS
Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Buccaneers)
The Bengals' Week 1 struggles in recent years are well documented. Why risk it?
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Commanders)
Eagles should win at home, but taking divisional matchup with so many unknowns in Week 1 seems foolish.
