Losing Survivor in Week 1 is mostly a resounding negative experience, but the one positive is that if you're going to lose eventually anyway, you might as well just lose the season opener so you don't waste your time week after week. Survivor is not about the journey; it's the destination.
Losing because you changed your pick at the last minute, as I did, stings worse. I was on the Jaguars, but, as I explained, had a nagging feeling about the Chargers. So, I changed my pick Sunday morning. As soon as the Jaguars got up big, I knew I was doomed.
I'd much rather lose that way, though, than lose because I didn't listen to my intuition. The problem wasn't overthinking it or some such thing, it was not thinking enough — why bet on a new offense sight unseen? I should have been able to gut-check my intuition with deeper thinking.
As I said last season: If you have a feeling about a team, pay attention to it. It's called intuition, and if you're playing Survivor and reading this column, that means you are really into the NFL, which means you know something about football, i.e., you have intuition. The hard part is that our intuition is not always correct (if it was we'd be fortune tellers), but in Week 1 when there is so little to go by, relying on intuition is as good as anything else, perhaps better.
Whomever you pick, be confident with it. Had
Losing Survivor in Week 1 is mostly a resounding negative experience, but the one positive is that if you're going to lose eventually anyway, you might as well just lose the season opener so you don't waste your time week after week. Survivor is not about the journey; it's the destination.
Losing because you changed your pick at the last minute, as I did, stings worse. I was on the Jaguars, but, as I explained, had a nagging feeling about the Chargers. So, I changed my pick Sunday morning. As soon as the Jaguars got up big, I knew I was doomed.
I'd much rather lose that way, though, than lose because I didn't listen to my intuition. The problem wasn't overthinking it or some such thing, it was not thinking enough — why bet on a new offense sight unseen? I should have been able to gut-check my intuition with deeper thinking.
As I said last season: If you have a feeling about a team, pay attention to it. It's called intuition, and if you're playing Survivor and reading this column, that means you are really into the NFL, which means you know something about football, i.e., you have intuition. The hard part is that our intuition is not always correct (if it was we'd be fortune tellers), but in Week 1 when there is so little to go by, relying on intuition is as good as anything else, perhaps better.
Whomever you pick, be confident with it. Had I not changed my pick and lost with the Jaguars, I would be even more upset.
In my pool, 158 of the original 392 entrants were eliminated (136 on the Cardinals), leaving 234 survivors (59.7%).
It's important to remember, however, Week 1 is a liar.
On to Week 2.
For an explanation of our weekly pot-odds strategy, read Week 1's article.
If you want to plan the season, RotoWire has a nifty tool to help plan week-by-week picks.
Below is a detailed chart to help us figure out what a pick is worth. The chart does the work for us of comparing the risk ratio and reward ratio of fading the week's top team in favor of the next-best team.
The chart shows a team's Vegas odds (the consensus of 10 sportsbooks with the vig removed) and its projected ownership, which is based on pick percentages from SurvivorGrid.com.
Expected Value is the projected worth of your pool entry based on the team you pick. Anything higher than 1.0 is positive value. The higher the EV, the higher your odds have improved of winning. Some weeks, a lesser favorite will have a higher EV because of lower ownership — again, that's our goal.
As we can see from the chart, there is no pot-odds play this week. The team with the best odds to win, the 49ers, does not have high enough ownership to be worth fading. The Buccaneers have nearly the same ownership.
Despite having the second-best odds to win and only being owned by about 7 percent of the public, the Ravens would need still better odds to present as a pot-odds pick over the 49ers.
Therefore, the pick is the 49ers, but pick what you like.
Picks below are in order of preference.
Week 2 Survivor Picks
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Dolphins)
The Niners laid a whoopin' on the Rams down under and will have had 10 days to prepare for the visiting Dolphins. That's not good for Miami, who couldn't stop Kirk Cousins and the Raiders last week in Las Vegas. The Dolphins stayed on the west coast to avoid back-to-back cross-country trips, and perhaps that provides some benefit, but if Miami couldn't protect Malik Willis against the Raiders (five sacks), how will it keep him upright against one of the best defenses in the league?
Baltimore Ravens (vs. Saints)
The Saints nearly pulled off the comeback upset at the Lions last week. That probably only served to grab the Ravens' attention. Jahmyr Gibbs trampled the Saints' defense for 156 yards at 5.4 yards a pop; Derrick Henry (and Lamar Jackson) could do similar this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Browns)
Taking the Browns' opponent each week probably isn't a bad idea. Tampa Bay killed itself with four fumbles against the Bengals last week, three by Baker Mayfield. One was returned for a touchdown, one set up a short field for Cincinnati and another stopped a Bucs' drive inside the 5-yard line. Tampa Bay knows it should have won and won't overlook the Browns this week.
Philadelphia Eagles (at Titans)
The Eagles didn't look great in a home-opening win against Washington last week. But the Titans looked far worse in a loss to ... the Jets. The Titans got stomped despite just one turnover. The Eagles are on the road and LG Landon Dickerson is out. That's at least something to the consider. But the Eagles can probably still run all over a Titans defense that just gave up 152 rushing yards, even with a backup offensive lineman.
NOTABLE OMISSIONS
Los Angeles Rams (vs. Giants)
The assumption is the Rams underachieved in Week 1 while the Giants overachieved. Perhaps, but until we know for sure, why risk it? Maybe the Giants are that good — they were certainly more physical than expected. And perhaps the Rams' loss wasn't just about their odd travel schedule. It's enough to make one pause.
Seattle Seahawks (at Cardinals)
The Seahawks' defense is too good to get beat by Jacoby Brissett, but new Cardinals coach Mike LaFleur led the only offense last year, as Rams offensive coordinator, to give Seattle fits. The Cardinals are riding high after a big Week 1 upset, and the Seahawks will start backup Drew Lock this week. As well as he played last week (missed some throws, but no turnovers), Lock is a backup for a reason. No reason to risk Survivor on this divisional road matchup.
