There were a few upsets last week, but those who stuck to the top Survivor picks were rewarded. The Chiefs ruined our pot-odds strategy by winning, but the 49ers, for whom we faded the Chiefs, still won, so no harm, no foul. The Seahawks probably caused the most pain, picked by roughly eight percent of contestants (and our No. 3 pick).
In my pool, the Seahawks cost the lives of 12 pickers, as 29 total were eliminated. Of the 392 original entrants, 84 remain (21%).
On to Week 4.
For an explanation of our weekly pot-odds strategy, read Week 1's article.
If you want to plan the season, RotoWire has a nifty tool to help plan week-by-week picks.
Below is a detailed chart to help us figure out what a pick is worth. The chart does the work for us of comparing the risk ratio and reward ratio of fading the week's top team in favor of the next-best team.
The chart shows a team's Vegas odds (the consensus of 10 sportsbooks with the vig removed) and its projected ownership, which is based on pick percentages from SurvivorGrid.com.
Expected Value is the projected worth of your pool entry based on the team you pick. Anything higher than 1.0 is positive value. The higher the EV, the higher your odds have improved of winning. Some weeks, a lesser favorite will have a higher EV because of lower ownership — that's our goal.
Kind of an interesting week strategy-wise. The
There were a few upsets last week, but those who stuck to the top Survivor picks were rewarded. The Chiefs ruined our pot-odds strategy by winning, but the 49ers, for whom we faded the Chiefs, still won, so no harm, no foul. The Seahawks probably caused the most pain, picked by roughly eight percent of contestants (and our No. 3 pick).
In my pool, the Seahawks cost the lives of 12 pickers, as 29 total were eliminated. Of the 392 original entrants, 84 remain (21%).
On to Week 4.
For an explanation of our weekly pot-odds strategy, read Week 1's article.
If you want to plan the season, RotoWire has a nifty tool to help plan week-by-week picks.
Below is a detailed chart to help us figure out what a pick is worth. The chart does the work for us of comparing the risk ratio and reward ratio of fading the week's top team in favor of the next-best team.
The chart shows a team's Vegas odds (the consensus of 10 sportsbooks with the vig removed) and its projected ownership, which is based on pick percentages from SurvivorGrid.com.
Expected Value is the projected worth of your pool entry based on the team you pick. Anything higher than 1.0 is positive value. The higher the EV, the higher your odds have improved of winning. Some weeks, a lesser favorite will have a higher EV because of lower ownership — that's our goal.
Kind of an interesting week strategy-wise. The Seahawks, with the third-highest odds to win, have the most expected value, but it's not a pot-odds play because the value isn't decisive enough and two teams (Ravens, Vikings) are each picked by more than 34 percent of survivors.
Remember, a pot-odds play is a risk-reward trade — you accept a higher elimination risk in exchange for a higher reward in pot share (if you're right). The reward side of that trade with the Seahawks isn't big enough to justify the extra risk of taking a team with worse odds. It's the EV difference between "barely above average" (Vikings, Ravens) and "a little more above average" (Seahawks).
Also, a huge chunk of the field is already exposed to elimination risk no matter which of those two you pick — if either the Ravens or Vikings lose, more than a third of the pool goes with them. So, it's not necessary to gamble on a team with worse win odds to get field-thinning value.
All of which is to say, choose your favorite team between the Vikings and Ravens, the teams with the best odds of winning this week.
Picks below are in order of preference.
Week 4 Survivor Picks
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Dolphins)
The Vikings are winning with defense, and that's bad news for a bad Dolphins offense that just lost its best player in De'Von Achane. Brian Flores' defense might send heat every down, just for fun. Under what likely will be relentless pressure in a loud stadium, the Dolphins face a tall, tall task. Flores' history with the Dolphins (and lawsuit) only adds extra fire.
Baltimore Ravens (vs. Titans)
Coming off a big win on another continent, the Ravens have totaled 75 points in their two wins this season. The winless Titans have scored 37 points in three games. But there are some caution flags: The Ravens had to deal with the fallout from a 10-hour flight home from Brazil, their offensive line is banged up and their defense has given up copious yards (27th) and points (29th) this season. Those defensive issues came against competent offenses, however. The Titans can't keep up with the Ravens, especially considering Tennessee's defensive warts — missed tackles and yards after contact — play right into the hands of Derrick Henry.
Seattle Seahawks (vs. Chargers)
The Seahawks committed three turnovers last week, including a pick six, were without their starting safeties and failed to score from the 2-yard line. And still lost by only two points. The Chargers also lost last week — because they could only muster 10 points off five turnovers. Los Angeles' offense likely won't be redheaded-stepchild ugly forever, but it will need favorable bounces, great luck and maybe a Seattle injury or two to do much against a motivated defense backed by an angry crowd.
Buffalo Bills (vs. Patriots)
Overcoming five turnovers to win, as the Bills did last week vs. the Chargers, says more about Buffalo's defense than offense, but Josh Allen has spoken louder than anyone in the NFL thus far. That's not a good combo for New England. The Patriots are searching for answers as Drake Maye has one TD pass ... and six interceptions. Those answers aren't likely to come this week. On the other hand, division games can go sideways, and if the Bills are as careless with the ball as they were last week, perhaps the Patriots could pull it out.
Notable Omissions:
Kansas City Chiefs (at Raiders)
Division game, Raiders are playing with newfound belief, Chiefs might be due for slight regression and it's at Las Vegas. Way too many caution flags to make this a Survivor pick.
Green Bay Packers (at Buccaneers)
The Packers can't stop the run and can't run the ball. That's the definition of bad football. Who cares that Jalon Daniels will make his starting debut in place of the injured Baker Mayfield? The Packers could win, sure, but why risk a Survivor pick on a team playing so poorly?
