Beating the Book: NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread & Score Predictions

We did it. We survived six-plus months without NFL football.. Welcome to Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season.

If you haven't already, now is the time to sit down with your family and/or significant other and make sure they know how your schedule is going to look from now until February. It's also time to run out and grab that second (or even third, if possible) television for the living room. Interior design be damned.

I'm thrilled to be back for another year of offering up NFL ATS picks for every game -- every single game -- on the 2026 NFL slate. Analyzing and writing up each game is always more time-consuming than it should be (that's on me), but this exercise is something I look forward to each year, and I can't wait to jump back in and realize all of my priors were completely wrong by the time we get to Tuesday morning.

Whether you're a new reader, or someone who's been reading our NFL expert picks since the early days when this article was manned by Chris Liss, I want to thank you for following along. As always, feel free to ask questions – or berate me when I'm completely wrong – in the comments below. You can also email me directly ([email protected]) or find me on social media (@wha1en on Twitter and Instagram).

Throughout the season, you can catch me alongside Jeff Erickson on RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today, which airs Monday-through-Thursday at 1-3pm ET on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio (Channel 87). You'll also see me as a frequent guest on VSiN, where I co-host Prop Points from February through August. 

Each week, we'll run through every game chronologically, beginning with Thursday Night Football (or, in this case, Wednesday Night Football) and ending with Monday Night Football. I'll offer some brief thoughts on every matchup, as well as an official pick against the spread and a final score prediction. Pretty simple.

We'll utilize the most-recent NFL odds from major sportsbooks at the time of publication. We won't limit ourselves to a single shop – if a number is available at a reputable book, it's fair game. And if major variables are at play (QB or key skill player injuries, weather concerns, etc.) heading into the weekend, I'll do my best to provide some context and contingency plays. When necessary, I'll update my picks later in the week with updated lines.

Alright, that's more than enough preamble. Let's get to the picks. As always, my best bet of the week will be highlighted in gold.

Last week: N/A

2025 season: 143-135-6 ATS; 186-97-1 SU; 12-9 best bets

2024 season: 146-134-4 ATS; 195-89 SU; 7-12-2 best bets

Wednesday Night Kickoff Game

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks -3.5

Total: 44.5

No better way to kick off the NFL season than a Super Bowl rematch out in Seattle. As you may recall, that meeting back in February did not go well for the Pats, who were held scoreless until the fourth quarter.

Both teams have undergone some changes this offseason, with Seattle losing a few key pieces on defense in addition to allowing Kenneth Walker to join the Chiefs in free agency. Meanwhile, New England beefed up its wide receiver room, trading for A.J. Brown and bringing in Romeo Doubs to serve as the clear No. 2 option.

While the Seahawks don't strike me as a "rest on their laurels" type of team, the Pats will have revenge on their minds and should be better-positioned to combat an elite defense with the pass-catching upgrades. The absence of TreVeyon Henderson could eliminate some chunk play potential, but Rhamondre Stevenson should be more than capable of handling a bulk workload to begin the year. Stevenson O3.5 REC is one of my favorite player props for Wednesday night.

We'll ride with Seattle to win by a field goal at home, but New England can cover with the hook.

The pick: Seahawks 24 – Patriots 21

Thursday Night Australia Game

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: Rams -3.5

Total: 48.5

With the Rams sitting as the clear Super Bowl favorite, and the Niners dealing with their usual array of preseason injuries, I'm a little surprised this line has held steady at 3.5. But even at the ultimate neutral site, it's still a divisional game at the end of the day. These teams split two bizarre games last season, with the Mac Jones-led Niners pulling off a wild overtime win in Week 5 before the Rams got their revenge with a 42-26 win in Week 10. That victory was part of a six-game winning streak that also included wins over the Ravens, Jags, Saints, Seahawks and Buccaneers.

Los Angeles returns virtually every key piece on offense, including reigning MVP Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Blake Corum and Davante Adams. It's fair to have concerns about Stafford, Adams and Nacua holding up over the course of 18 weeks, but when healthy, the Rams' skill group is as good as any in the NFL.

Defensively, LA hopes to have fixed its biggest liability last season by bringing in Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson at cornerback. But the biggest addition of all was adding Myles Garrett to a defense that ranked seventh in EPA, second in pressure rate and forced 26 turnovers a year ago. The Rams other future-Hall-of-Famer addition, Aaron Donald, won't suit up in Melbourne. But this defense will get even tougher to scheme against in another week or two.

While the Rams have an overall talent advantage, I expect the Niners to come out well-prepared with a talented roster of their own. Both Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are back healthy after combining for only nine games played last season. That defense can give the Rams trouble, but I worry about the Niners' offense handling what will be a ferocious pass rush.

Ideally, the Niners' offense won't be as Christian McCaffrey-dependent as it was a year ago, but how much can San Francisco really depend on 33-year-old, Mike Evans, soon-to-be-33-year-old George Kittle off of a torn Achilles, 30-year-old Deebo Samuel and a rookie in De'Zhaun Stribling?

I'll be surprised if this game devolves into a lopsided affair, but we'll take the Rams to win and cover before returning to LA to host the Giants on Monday Night Football in Week 2.

The pick: Rams 26 – 49ers 20

Sunday Early Slate

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Jaguars -8.0

Total: 40.5

In the interest of full disclosure, I should note that, despite being born and raised in Green Bay and currently residing in Milwaukee, I am a Jaguars fan (I know). With that said, I can assure you it will not impact my handicapping – if anything, as a card-carrying pessimist, I tend to be more skeptical of the teams I root for.

Anyway, for the second straight year, the Jags are presented with a very winnable Week 1 matchup before the schedule picks up in earnest. After this Browns game, here are the Jags' next seven opponents: Denver, New England, Cincy, Philly, Houston, Indy, Baltimore. There's no such thing as a must-win in Week 1, but this is absolutely a must-win game if Jacksonville wants to avoid taking a step back after the franchise's best season in 25 years.

Generally, I'm not a fan of riding touchdown-plus favorites in Week 1, but man is it difficult to find a reason to get behind this Browns team – especially with a rookie head coach and even more especially with Deshaun Watson starting at quarterback.

Cleveland's defense will make this a bit uglier than it should be, but I have very little faith in Watson doing enough to keep up with a well-coached Jags team – something I haven't been able to say in quite some time. For the second straight year, Jacksonville will be my primary Survivor team in Week 1.

The pick: Jaguars 23 – Browns 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Bengals -3.5

Total: 50.5

I'm not sure if this one quite makes the cut as one of the obvious bangers of the week, but it's on the short list of games I'll be dialed in on in the early window. Cincinnati's early season struggles under Zac Taylor are well-documented, while the Bucs are looking to prove last year's second-half collapse was a blip on the radar.

During his Bengals tenure, Taylor is 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in Week 1, with the only wins coming over Minnesota (in overtime) in 2021 and last season against Cleveland – a game in which Cincy was out-gained 327 to 141. The defense is usually the Bengals' biggest liability, but over the last three seasons, the Bengals have scored just 30 total points in Week 1.

Meanwhile, Todd Bowles is a perfect 4-0 SU in Week 1 as the Bucs' head coach, most recently taking down the Falcons behind an Emeka Egbuka touchdown with less than a minute left.

For a number of reasons, this is a really difficult game to handicap. Cincy's Week 1 struggles are impossible to ignore, but the defense has to be better than last season, and we know what this offense is capable of when Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are on the field.

With some lingering concerns about how Tampa Bay finished last season, it's tough to pick against Cincinnati at home. But the early struggles have been so consistent, and I want to see the defensive improvements before I fully buy in. We'll take the Bucs to pull off a mild road upset in what promises to be one of the wildest games of the week.

The pick: Bucs 24 – Bengals 23

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -6.5

Total: 49.5

There are two teams in the NFC South that I'm really high on: Minnesota and Detroit. In many ways, the Lions had their year from hell last season, and while the offensive line isn't what it once was, and the defense is seemingly always missing multiple key pieces, I like the Lions to be a worst-to-first team in the NFC North.

The Saints' defense was more effective than it got credit for last season, but opening up on the road against Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta is a brutal draw. Even amid last year's struggles, the Lions ranked top-five in the NFL in offensive EPA, yards per play and points per game. 

On the other side, I'm a believer in Tyler Shough and see Kellen Moore as one of the league's ascending head coaches. But much of the Saints' second-half improvement last season came against a soft schedule, and while they added Travis Etienne, this is a running game that needs to make a massive leap after finishing 31st in EPA and 27th in success rate a year ago. And beyond Chris Olave, there's very little in terms of reliable pass-catchers on this roster.

I am a buyer on the Saints, overall, but that's due in large part to the fact that they play in the NFC South. They can hang around and make this interesting, but I expect Detroit to pull away late and cover at home.

The pick: Lions 31 – Saints 23

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans

Spread: Titans -1.5

Total: 39.0

We don't ignore any games here at Beating the Book, but watching this one on Sunday is going to be a labor of love. We do have to keep in mind that each of these teams nearly pulled off upsets in Week 1 a year ago. The Jets played perhaps the wildest game of the week against Pittsburgh, while the Titans almost sent Survivor pools into chaos in Denver.

There's reason to believe both teams could take a step forward after matching 3-14 records a year ago, but what we saw from the Titans' starters in the preseason was far from encouraging. Meanwhile, the Jets are the latest team to talk themselves into Geno Smith as a viable starting quarterback.

I'm going to go ahead and make this our first Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. Defensively, Tennessee should be able to cause some issues for Smith, but it's really difficult to trust the Titans' offense to hold up its end of the bargain.

We'll take the short road favorite to win outright in a game that neither team can really afford to lose right off the bat.

The pick: Jets 17 – Titans 14

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Ravens -3.0

Total: 47.5

This is a huge spot for the Ravens to start off hot and take advantage of a soft early season schedule that could easily have them sitting 5-1 by mid-October. That would, of course, be a complete reversal from last season, which began with a horrendous choke in Buffalo that helped send the Ravens to a 1-5 start heading into their Week 7 bye.

With Jesse Minter taking over for Jim Harbaugh, gone is the stability we'd come to expect from Baltimore, but I'm of the belief that maybe a fresh voice was needed for a team that continued to run into the same playoff ceiling. Starting out on the road in Indy is by no means an easy spot, but there's an argument to be made that Baltimore is catching the Colts at a good time. Sunday will mark Daniel Jones' first game off of a torn Achilles, while the Colts' top three pass-catchers – Alec Pierce, Josh Downs and Tyler Warren – have all been limited by injuries throughout camp.

More than anything, I'm interested to see if Lamar Jackson can start out hot. Plagued by nagging injuries, it felt like we never truly saw peak Jackson a year ago, and this could be a spot where he issues a stern reminder as to why he's a two-time MVP.

I'll readily admit trusting a team with a rookie head coach and first-time play-caller on the road carries some risk, but I like the Ravens to start hot against a defense that crumbled over the second half of last season.

The pick: Ravens 27 – Colts 23

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Steelers -3.0

Total: 42.5

I can't promise this will be the most fun game to watch, but if nothing else we'll get some early answers to the myriad questions I have about each of these teams. First and foremost, what does Aaron Rodgers have left in the tank at age 42?

Rodgers was able to give the Steelers just enough to win the banged-up AFC North a year ago, but at no point did they ever feel like a team capable of making a playoff run. He's reunited with Mike McCarthy and might have slightly better weaponry around him, but it feels like there will once again be a defined ceiling on this offense.

On the other side of the ball, the Steelers' defense took a notable step back last season. Injuries were partially to blame, but this will likely need to return to being a top-10 unit if Pittsburgh has any hope of making the postseason. The secondary should be improved, but the Steelers will also need a bounceback from T.J. Watt, who finished with only 7.0 sacks in 14 games a year ago.

On the other side, no team may be carrying less optimism into Week 1 than the Atlanta Falcons, who reluctantly announced Tua Tagovailoa as their Week 1 starter earlier this week. With Michael Penix still working back from injury, Tua was always the most-likely option, but he was so uninspiring in camp and the preseason that the Falcons took the decision down to the wire in hopes Penix could be available.

If you can't tell, I am definitively NOT a believer in Tagovailoa, and starting out on the road in Pittsburgh is a difficult ask. Slowing down Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts is no simple task, but even with a 42-year-old man on the other side, I just can't, in good faith, bet on Tagovailoa right now.

The pick: Steelers 21 – Falcons 17

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Bears -3.0

Total: 47.5

As we get closer to real games being played, two factions have emerged when it comes to the Bears. You're either a Ben Johnson believer and think what we saw down the stretch last season was real. Or you view the Bears as one of the luckiest teams of all time and have them pegged as one of the most-obvious regression candidates in recent history.

Am I allowed to believe both of those things can be true? Certainly, we shouldn't count on the Bears to post a plus-22 turnover differential – the second-highest since 2012 – but that doesn't mean we can't buy stock in an offense that ranked top-five in EPA per play and success rate while boasting the league's most efficient running game from Week 9 onward.

The scary thing about facing a Ben Johnson offense is he isn't just trying to win the game – he's trying to embarrass you. We saw it in Detroit, and we began to see it in Chicago last season. Are the Bears actually going to set the scoring record? No, almost certainly not. But there's no harm in trying.

The question for Chicago is whether the defense can hold up its end of the bargain. The rate at which the Bears forced turnovers is unsustainable, but can the Bears generate enough of a pass rush and survive the rash of injuries that have already ravaged their revamped secondary?

That secondary is what makes this a difficult game to evaluate. I'm in on the Bears' offense, but the defense could be enough of a liability early on that even a Bryce Young-led attack could move the ball effectively.

I'm on the Bears to win this game, but I'm not as confident as I'd like to be.

The pick: Bears 28 – Panthers 24

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Spread: Bills -1.5

Total: 44.5

I wish I could make this our stay-away of the week, but it's simply too good of a matchup to sit out. On a loaded Week 1 slate, this is the game that will generate the biggest overreactions one way or the other. If Houston wins behind a dominant defensive effort, they'll be the (even more) trendy AFC Super Bowl pick. If Josh Allen carries the Bills to a road victory, then promoting Joe Brady was exactly what Buffalo needed to finally  break through.

Overreactions aside, we do need to note that this is an incredibly important game for two teams facing difficult schedules early on. Two of Houston's next three games come against Cincy and Dallas – with a road game at Indy sandwiched in between – while the Bills get the Lions, Chargers, Patriots and Rams as their next four opponents.

It goes without saying that this is a huge spot for C.J. Stroud, who threw completed 20-of-47 passes for 212 yards with four picks when we last saw him in the Divisional Round. Buffalo couldn't stop the run last season, but this was a top-three unit by EPA against opposing QBs. Whether Houston can run on the Bills' defense could be the key. Houston ranked second-to-last in rushing success rate in 2025.

If you know anyone who has a great read on this game, I would love to talk to them. My inclination is to lean toward Houston as a short home dog. Even if Stroud – who is 0-6 ATS in Weeks 1 and 2, by the way – looks shaky, the Texans' defense may be the most bankable unit in the NFL right now.

The pick: Texans 21 – Bills 20

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Vikings -1.5

Total: 46.5

Right off the bat, I'll say I'm a big believer in this Vikings team with Kyler Murray at the helm. It's not that I'm even a huge Murray fan, but I don't think we can overstate how much of a jump in competence he'll bring to a team that was rolling out J.J. McCarthy, Max Brosmer and the carcass of Carson Wentz last season.

Despite bottom-five (generous) quarterback play that killed the running game and completely neutered Justin Jefferson – the Vikings also led the NFL in turnovers – Minnesota still found a way to go 4-2 in-division and win nine games a year ago. The defense was once again a top-10 unit and comes with the inherent trust in Brian Flores to sustain that level. With better health luck on the offensive line, I see the Vikings as a Wild Card team in the NFC.

On the other side, I'm not totally out on Green Bay. But the Packers shed some meaningful depth this offseason and are now a top-heavy roster that could struggle to withstand the same kind of injuries that hit late last season. Micah Parsons likely won't be back until Week 5, cornerback is still a major question mark, and the Packers will depend heavily on Tucker Kraft coming off of a torn ACL. On top of that, the offensive line is as big of an unknown as it's been in the Matt LaFleur era, and it's anyone's guess as to when – or if – Josh Jacobs will play this season.

To LaFleur's credit, he usually has his team ready early in the season. But entering Week 1 without Parsons, plus a shaky offensive line and no proven ball-carriers is enough for me to fade Green Bay.

The pick: Vikings 24 – Packers 20

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Raiders -3.5

Total: 40.5

Much like Jets-Titans, this is another bad team vs. bad team game that's difficult to figure out. After bringing in Klint Kubiak and going on a free agency spending spree, there's some tempered optimism around the Raiders. The same cannot be said about the Dolphins, who sold off several key assets and appear completely fine embracing a full rebuild.

I'm very curious to see what Malik Willis looks like as a fully minted starter, but the weaponry around him is extremely limited beyond De'Von Achane. The path for Miami to hang around and potentially steal a win lies in Willis' ability to challenge a defense with his legs, plus Achane's ability to break off chunk plays.

If the Raiders can avoid too many breakdowns, they should be able to win at home. With that said, the general public is almost too low on the Dolphins – to the point that I think they can surprise us and cover the 3.5.

The pick: Raiders 20 – Dolphins 17

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -4.5

Total: 44.5

As a Jayden Daniels supporter, I would love to say this will be a bounceback season for the Commanders after falling victim to being last year's Obvious Regression Team. But Washington's efforts to refresh the roster around Daniels haven't been overly encouraging, and the loss of Laremy Tunsil is a massive blow to what's now a bottom-five unit in the NFL.

I'll hear arguments for Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs staying just healthy enough to be a formidable duo, but for the second straight year, it feels like this team could crumble at any moment.

For the Eagles, this is an opportunity to bank an early divisional win at home. We'll see how they handle the loss of A.J. Brown – plus yet another new offensive coordinator – but I see Brown's absence as an opportunity for Philly to get back to doing what it does best: winning in the trenches, playing through Saquon Barkley and re-committing to Jalen Hurts as a runner.

The pick: Eagles 27 – Commanders 17

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Chargers -10.5

Total: 47.5

As of publication, the Chargers are widely projected to be the most-popular Survivor play in Week 1, though the Jags are gaining ground. With LA sitting as a double-digit favorite – the first in Week 1 since 2019 – it's easy to see why. But keep in mind, double-digit Week 1 favorites are just 7-14 ATS since the turn of the century.

It's easy to understand the argument for the Chargers. Mike McDaniel steps in to take charge of a talented offense that's felt like it's underachieved with Justin Herbert.. Omarion Hampton is healthy. We like the pass-catchers, including three viable tight ends. Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are back in the mix. Let me clear: I won't be surprised if the Chargers come out hot in a great spot at home.

But I also think the Cardinals might not be quite as terrible as we think. It's tough to get fired up about running it back with Jacoby Brissett, but this is far from a Dolphins-esque roster. Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson and Jeremiyah Love is a more-than-formidable group of skill players. Defensively, Arizona did not take the step forward we hoped last season, but keep in mind, the Cardinals were incredibly banged up all over the roster. Arizona finished last season with 179.8 Adjusted Games Lost (AGL). Not only was that the most in the NFL last season; it was the second-most in the last 25 years.

All of this is to say, the Cardinals will likely be a bad team – facing the NFL's toughest projected schedule does them no favors – but I'm not ready to say they'll simply be a doormat week in and week out.

We'll follow the trend here and take the Cardinals to cover the double-digit number. As of publication, 55% of bets at DraftKings are on the Chargers, while 80% of the handle is on Arizona (via VSiN.com betting splits).

The pick: Chargers 27 – Cardinals 19

Sunday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Spread: Cowboys -2.5

Total: 47.5

I'm a little nervous about how high I am on this Cowboys team. Historically, I haven't been much of a believer, but the Cowboys return virtually every piece from a top-five offense and – on paper, at least – addressed the glaring holes in what was a comically bad defense for much of 2025.

The road to the postseason begins with a pair of division games (vs. WAS next week) before the schedule really stiffens up with Baltimore, Houston, Tampa Bay, Green Bay and Philly in consecutive weeks. Dallas knows it has to win this game to be taken seriously, and I trust Dak Prescott, the best WR duo in the NFL and a resurgent running game to make life difficult on a talented Giants defense.

Over the course of the offseason, the Giants emerged as somewhat of a trendy team, but I've found myself a bit more skeptical. The front seven is legit, but I still have questions about the secondary and am not fully bought in on Jaxson Dart or Cam Skattebo. I can't say the same about Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely, but we also have to acknowledge that this is a very thin skill group with very little depth – particularly at wide receiver.

With it being a divisional game, nothing would truly surprise me. Maybe I'm expecting too much from a defense that still needs to prove it on the field. But with this number hanging under a field goal, it's tough to pick against the quarterback I trust significantly more in Prescott.

The pick: Cowboys 26 -- Giants 23

Monday Night Football

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -3.0

Total: 43.5

We finish out the week with another certified banger on Monday Night Football. Patrick Mahomes makes his return from a torn ACL in what feels like a massive game for Kansas City. Well before Mahomes went down in Week 15, the Chiefs' offense hardly resembled the unit that's run the AFC for most of the last decade. Kenneth Walker arrives to (hopefully) rejuvenate the ground game, but for the most part, KC is running it back with Rashee Rice and 37-year-old Travis Kelce as by far Mahomes' primary weapons.

While the Chiefs get the benefit of playing at Arrowhead, opening up at home against one of the NFL's best defenses won't be an easy task. Denver finished last season No. 1 in opponent success rate and yards per play allowed. The pass defense was particularly elite, but teams could run on Denver, so getting Walker involved early and often will be key for Kansas City – especially with Mahomes perhaps shaking off some rust.

Historically, this is a spot where I would have a tough time picking against Kansas City. But last season felt like a real paradigm shift, and I have major concerns about the Chiefs' pass-catching personnel, offensive line (LT Josh Simmons is in jeopardy of missing Week 1) and secondary.

We'll take the Broncos, who added a key weapon in Jaylen Waddle, to win outright as a road dog. Week 1 dogs on Monday Night Football are 33-17-1 ATS dating back to 1990.

The pick: Broncos 23 – Chiefs 21