Beating the Book: NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread & Score Predictions

Welcome to the Week 4 edition of Beating the Book, where we give you NFL ATS picks for every game, every week.

Looking back on Week 3, we should feel fortunate to emerge with an 8-8 ATS record on a slate that resulted in what I believe may be the worst SU record in Beating the Book history. Beginning with the Packers on Thursday night, we managed to be on the wrong side of 10 (!) games. Our best bet of the week, Seattle, somehow allowed 33 points to Marcus Mariota, while we had extreme lapses in judgment on teams like Carolina, Tampa Bay and Cincinnati.

Nevertheless, we turn the page to Week 4, which begins with a suddenly meaningful game on Thursday night between the Steelers and Browns. Somehow, one of those teams is going to be 3-1. Maybe we've come to expect this devil magic from Pittsburgh, but I'm not sure America is prepared for the possibility of a 3-1 Browns team.

The Sunday slate begins earlier than usual, as we have our first London game of the season between the Colts and Commanders – both of which just picked up their first wins last week. Pats-Bills, Jags-Bengals, Rams-Eagles, Broncos-Niners and Chiefs-Raiders are among the other highlights on the Sunday, while Cards-Giants, Jets-Bears and Packers-Bucs headline the "I will watch this out of professional obligation" category.

As of publication, the Ravens (-11.5 vs. TEN) and Vikings (-10.5 vs. MIA) sit as the biggest favorites of the week and the only teams favored by double-digits.

We'll break down those games, and the entire NFL Week 4 betting slate, below. As always, my best bet of the week will be highlighted in gold.

Let's dive in.

Best calls of Week 3

• Raiders +3.5 at Saints: How about the 3-0 Las Vegas Raiders? In what was maybe the wildest game of the week, the Saints led into the fourth quarter before turning it over on their final four drives. Impressive stuff.
• Cowboys +3.5 vs. Ravens: I was fully prepared to lose this on a Baltimore TD/crushing Dak interception in overtime, but thankfully Dallas left just enough time for Tyler Loop to walk it off in Rio.

Worst calls of Week 3

• Seahawks -6.5 at Commanders: Seattle became the first team in four years to lose a game despite posting an 85-plus-percent success rate on both sides of the ball.
• Panthers -2.5 at Browns: As soon as this game started, I realized what I'd done. How did I think the Carolina Panthers were going to win two consecutive games as a road favorite?

Last week: 8-8 ATS; 6-10 SU; best bet lost (SEA -6.5)

2026 season: 27-21 ATS, 27-21 SU; 1-2 best bets

2025 season: 143-135-6 ATS; 186-97-1 SU; 12-9 best bets

2024 season: 146-134-4 ATS; 195-89 SU; 7-12-2 best bets

Thursday Night Football

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

Spread: Steelers -2.5

Total: 38.5

Among many candidates, the Steelers are in the conversation as the NFL's most confusing team thus far. After back-to-back horrific offensive games to begin the season, Pittsburgh put 30 on what we thought was an improved Bengals defense in Week 3, ripping off 7.0 YPP en route to 411 total yards. Given what we saw against New England and Atlanta, Week 3 may go down as an anomaly, but if nothing else Pittsburgh showed that its offense has to be taken more seriously.

Speaking of which, the Cleveland Browns are 2-1 after back-to-back wins over Tampa Bay and Carolina. Neither of those victories were overly pretty, but Deshaun Watson is playing clean football, and the Browns' defense has held its last two opponents to just a 37.5% success rate. Cleveland is struggling to run the ball (30th in success rate), however, so the Browns will need another turnover-free game from Watson if they're going to win outright.

I'm far from sold on either of these teams, but somehow, some way, one of them is going to be 3-1 late Thursday night. We'll side with Pittsburgh to win a by a field goal in a game that fully embodies the AFC North.

The pick: Steelers 20 – Browns 17

Sunday NFL London Game

Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders

Spread: Colts -3.5

Total: 47.5

After checking Melbourne and Rio off the list, the NFL returns to London for the first of three games over the next three weeks. Colts-Commanders really feels like a perfect London matchup, though both teams are coming in off of their first victories of the season.

Indy held on for a 19-17 win over the Texans, while the Commanders pulled one of the biggest upsets of Week 3, winning outright as nearly a touchdown dog against Seattle.

The expectation is that we'll see Marcus Mariota again this week, though Jayden Daniels will make the trip overseas with the team and apparently has a chance to play. If he does suit up, he'd do so with a bulky brace on his non-throwing arm.

One of the league's better backups, Mariota fared well last week against an elite defense, throwing three touchdowns and avoiding any turnovers. Washington's defense was able to generate three takeaways – including a pick-six – that ultimately flipped the game, but this is still one of the shakiest units in the NFL. Seattle racked up 437 yards of total offense and 6.8 yards per play one week after the Commanders gave up 37 points and 6.1 YPP to the Cowboys.

On the other side, Indy's defense hasn't been much better. They had the fortune of facing the Texans without Nico Collins last week, but prior to that gave up 500-plus yards to both Baltimore and Kansas City to begin the season. Entering Week 4, Indy ranks 30th in defensive EPA, 31st in EPA/play and 31st in success rate.

Given the defenses we're dealing with, I won't be surprised if this turns into somewhat of a shootout. We'll side with the Colts to ride a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor to a win, but Washington can cover the 3.5 on a neutral field.

The pick: Colts 30 – Commanders 27

Sunday Early Slate

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Bengals -2.5

Total: 51.5

Perhaps the best game of the early window brings us to Cincinnati, where the Bengals will attempt to bounce back from that loss in Pittsburgh last week. I'm willing to chalk it up to the AFC North being the AFC North, but Cincinnati's defense showed some major cracks following two impressive efforts. Offensively, the Bengals were mostly fine, though they've struggled to get Chase Brown going thus far. Entering Week 4, Cincy ranks 27th in total rushing yards, 29th in yards after contact and 20th in rushing EPA.

Jacksonville is coming off of a thorough drubbing of the New England Patriots in which the Jags defense forced three Drake Maye turnovers – two that led to touchdowns and another that took away a sure scoring opportunity for the Pats.

It's tough to gauge exactly where the Jags' defense stands considering it's faced Deshaun Watson, Bo Nix and the 2026 version of Maye, but Jacksonville currently ranks fourth in EPA/play and first in EPA/pass. Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Co. will be pretty easily Jacksonville's toughest test yet.

If Trevor Lawrence can play another clean game, and the Jags can get Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez going as they did last week, Jacksonville can win this game outright. But it's tough to gauge exactly where the Jags' defense stands considering it's faced Deshaun Watson, Bo Nix and the 2026 version of Maye, but Jacksonville currently ranks fourth in EPA/play and first in EPA/pass. Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Co. will be pretty easily Jacksonville's toughest test yet.

With the number sitting at 2.5, we'll side with Cincinnati to win a back-and-forth game at home.

Keep in mind, the winner of this game will pull ahead in the all-time Jaguars-Bengals series, which is currently knotted up at 13 wins apiece. Something we have all been closely monitoring.

The pick: Bengals 30 – Jaguars 27

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Packers -2.5

Total: 39.5

Green Bay hit arguably its lowest point in the Matt LaFleur era on Thursday night with a three-score loss to the Falcons – the Packers' largest margin of defeat at Lambeau Field – with their starting QB playing – since 2006.

For a team with high expectations coming into the year, the Packers look alarmingly broken. Injuries have played a part, but Thursday night was a stern reminder that it's nearly impossible to win games in the NFL without a decent offensive line. Green Bay would happily take "decent" right now, given how that unit has stacked up against the rest of the league.

If there's any reason for optimism in Titletown right now, it's that the Packers get to face the Buccaneers without Baker Mayfield this week (and they could very well get the Bears without Caleb Williams in Week 5). In Mayfield's absence, Tampa Bay will turn to undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels, who fared well enough in camp to earn the backup job.

Daniels had some moments over his six years at Kansas, but it's anyone's guess how he'll hold up in his first real taste of NFL action. Working in Daniels' favor is a Packers defense that had no answers for Michael Penix and a Falcons offense that nearly put up 500 yards on Thursday night.

Even with an offensive line that's basically holding open tryouts at this point, there's no excuse for the Packers to lose this game against an undrafted rookie making his first start. We'll reluctantly ride the Packers to send Tampa Bay to its 13th straight non-cover.

The pick: Packers 20 – Buccaneers 15

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -6.5

Total: 48.5

Fresh off of an embarrassing loss in Jacksonville, the heat is officially on Drake Maye, who's played like a bottom-five quarterback thus far. Maye was able to do enough to beat Pittsburgh in Week 2, but even in that game he threw a bad interception – one of a league-leading seven turnovers on the season.

At this point, Maye is clearly in his own head – not a spot you want to be with the Buffalo Bills looming on the schedule. Chances are, Buffalo won't turn the ball over five times two weeks in a row, so the Pats are going to have to go score-for-score with what's been one of the three best offenses in the NFL thus far.

With how Maye is playing, plus the continued absence of AJ Brown, it's tough to imagine the Pats finding their way out of this offensive funk in Buffalo.

The pick: Bills 33 – Patriots 20

New York Jets at Chicago Bears

Spread: Bears -3.5

Total: 42.5

Case Keenum led the Bears to a comfortable win over the Eagles on Monday night, completing 24-of-34 passes for 247 yards and two scores. It remains to be seen if Chicago will stick with Keenum again this week or turn to Tyson Bagent, who was active as the backup on Monday after spending much of the week in concussion protocol.

Either way, the Bears will come into this game with plenty of confidence and a chance to move to 3-1 against a Jets team off of back-to-back losses to Green Bay and Detroit. While the Jets went score-for-score with Detroit, the Packers loss looks considerably worse in hindsight. The Jets will likely be without Breece Hall, while both AD Mitchell and Minkah Fitzpatrick are key names to monitor on the injury report.

We'll side with the Bears to win at home, but we'll likely see some regression from Keenum,  if he starts.

The pick: Bears 24 – Jets 21

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants

Spread: Cardinals -2.5

Total: 44.5

After a dreadful Week 2 showing, the Cardinals got back to doing what they do best in Week 3: hanging around with quality teams before ultimately falling short. Arizona put up 30 points on the Niners defense behind strong showings from Jacoby Brissett, Michael Wilson and Jeremiyah Love.

Meanwhile, the Giants held on for a predictably ugly win over Tennessee, putting up only 238 yards of total offense en route to four field goals. A win is a win, but the Titans were in position to steal it away late in the fourth quarter.

Without Jaxson Dart, there's a clear ceiling on the Giants' offense. We know Jameis Winston is more than capable of pushing the ball downfield, and the Giants may have to be willing to let it fly this week against a more capable offense. That should provide us with a more fun game to watch, but Jameis airing it out also presents considerable downside.

We'll lean into the line movement and take the Cardinals to win and cover on the road.

The pick: Cardinals 24 – Giants 20

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Rams -3.0

Total: 46.5

One of the best games in the early window is suddenly a big one for both teams – especially the Rams, who could fall to 1-3 with a loss after blowing a 16-0 halftime lead in Denver last week. It sounds as though Puka Nacua has a good chance to return from a two-game absence, which would obviously provide a nice boost to a Rams offense that's put up 481 and 482 yards in the two games without him.

Philadelphia is coming off of that ugly loss to Keenum on Monday night in which it committed three turnovers and failed to reach 250 yards of total offense. The Eagles have a history of winning ugly, but it's fair to be concerned after they barely squeaked by Washington and Tennessee to begin the year.

The Rams need this game more than Philly, and if Nacua is back I don't see them losing. But the Eagles should be able to get after Matthew Stafford and make this a close game late at home.

The pick: Rams 23 – Eagles 21

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -11.5

Total: 43.5

Offensively, the Ravens have been firing on all cylinders through three weeks, ranking in the top three in the NFL in EPA/play, passing success rate, rushing success rate and yards per play. Against Dallas, they were able to generate chunk plays at will, but the defense did surrender 31 points and over 400 yards of offense to Dak Prescott and Co.

The Titans' offense isn't quite on the same level as Dallas', but 11.5 is a big number to lay against a defense that's quietly been solid, ranking top-10 in the league in points and yards allowed despite an offense that's given them almost nothing to work with.

I like Baltimore to win comfortably behind Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, but the Titans can keep this within reason.

The pick: Ravens 27 – Titans 17

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans

Spread: Texans -3.0

Total: 47.5

For the second straight year, Houston is 0-3, but this offense is nearly as broken as the record suggests. C.J. Stroud has played efficient, mistake-free football — 794 yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions — even with Nico Collins banged up and a running game that's completely evaporated over the last two weeks. 

Also for the second straight year, the Cowboys' defense looks like one of the biggest liabilities in the NFL. Dallas ranks 30th in total yards allowed, dead-last in EPA, and dead-last in both rushing and passing success rate. A rash of injuries in the secondary are partially to blame, but as of publication Dallas is likely to be without several key pieces again this week.

If Collins makes his return this week, I like Houston to avoid an 0-4 start at home. But the Cowboys' offense has enough firepower to make life difficult on a defense that hasn't played at last year's ultra-elite level yet.

The pick: Texans 27 – Cowboys 26

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Vikings -10.5

Total: 39.5

Minnesota is one of only five teams sitting at 3-0, and while the defense has looked like perhaps the best in the NFL, the offense is going to have to pull its weight at some point. All three of the Vikings' wins have been bizarre in some form or fashion. That includes last week's 23-16 victory over Tampa Bay, in which Minnesota scored only one offensive touchdown and went 2-of-15 on third downs.

Kyler Murray may simply need more reps to settle in, and the Vikings should have plenty of leeway against the only team with a lower offensive success rate than their own through three games. Thus far, Miami has scored 13, 13 and 10 points in losses to Vegas, San Francisco and Kansas City. Losing De'Von Achane for the season certainly won't help – especially against the league's No. 1 defense by DVOA, EPA and success rate.

I'll be surprised if Minnesota's offense suddenly clicks this week – Justin Jefferson (ankle) is in danger of sitting out – but this is the kind of matchup Brian Flores dreams about.

The pick: Vikings 21 – Dolphins 9

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Chiefs -4.5

Total: 47.5

I expect the 3-0 Raiders to be a popular side at home, and perhaps for good reason. Vegas has been one of the best stories of the season thus far, knocking off the Dolphins and Chargers before rallying back to win in New Orleans last week.

The passing game, in particular, has been off to a hot start, but – much like last year – Vegas is still struggling to run the ball, ranking 31st in rushing EPA and 32nd in success rate. We also have to factor in quality of opponent, as Vegas has faced the worst team in the NFL, a dead Chargers team and a solid-but-volatile Saints team. Defensively, some metrics paint the Raiders as one of the league's best units, but that's due in large part to a barrage of turnovers (9) through these first three games .In terms of success rate and yards per play, Vegas looks more like a slightly below league-average defense.

Kansas City has shown some vulnerability on that end, as well, but I trust Patrick Mahomes and Co. to take care of the ball and continue to rely heavily on Kenneth Walker. So far, the Raiders haven't faced anything close to an elite rushing attack.

The pick: Chiefs 27 – Raiders 21

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -3.0

Total: 46.5

San Francisco is on the short list of the most impressive teams in the league thus far, and Brock Purdy is suddenly the second-shortshot for MVP behind Josh Allen. Behind a hot start from Purdy, the Niners' offense is lapping the field in EPA per play and EPA per pass, while managing Christian McCaffrey's workload. Entering Week 4, McCaffrey has 35 fewer touches than Jahmyr Gibbs, for context.

As always, injuries are piling up for San Francisco. De'Zhaun Stribling and Demarcus Robinson have joined Ricky Pearsall on IR, while Mike Evans, Trent Williams and Dre Greenlaw are all questionable for Week 4. Nick Bosa, who sat out Week 3, has already been ruled out.

I'm not the biggest believer in this Broncos team, but they're coming off of impressive wins over Jacksonville and the Rams, and the Niners' injuries are a real concern. Denver has the personnel to slow down Purdy and a limited group of wide receivers.

The pick: Broncos 27 – 49ers 26

Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks -7.0

Total: 43.5

We gave the Chargers one last chance last week and picked them to cover in Buffalo. Despite generating five (5) turnovers and jumping out to a 10-0 lead, LA not only failed to win the game but failed to even cover a touchdown.

I don't have much to say about the Chargers, who are clearly just not a good football team. They're yet to score more than 16 points – against the Cardinals, Raiders and Bills, no less – and have Seattle, Denver, Kansas City, the Rams, Houston and Baltimore as their next six games. I'm not saying they could start 0-9, but they could start 0-9. Frankly, with the Survivor damage they've inflicted, I'm almost rooting for it at this point.

Seattle comes in after a stunning loss to Washington last week in which it committed three turnovers, including a fourth-quarter pick-six that essentially sealed up the win. Still, the advanced numbers paint a much different picture than the final score, and some of Seattle's shortcomings can be explained by injuries in the secondary.

Obviously, the Chargers need a win as badly as anyone right now, but catching the Seahawks' defense – in Seattle – off of a loss is about as brutal of a spot as it gets.

The pick: Seahawks 24 – Chargers 16

Sunday Night Football

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Lions -3.5

Total: 50.5

The Sunday night slot brings us to Carolina for what projects to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week. Understandably so given what we saw from Carolina in Week 1, as well as a Lions defense that ranks 31st in EPA and has played in three consecutive shootouts.

Detroit's secondary is enough of a concern that I expect Carolina to hang around, but the Lions still have considerably more firepower on offense and a quarterback I trust significantly more in Jared Goff. Key injuries are also mounting for Carolina, which will be without at least three starting offensive linemen, as well as both starting corners in Mike Jackson and Jaycee Horn. Jalen Coker, who's battled a leg injury the last two weeks, is also in danger of sitting out, while Xavier Legette is considered doubtful.

The Panthers can go score-for-score with Detroit for a decent chunk of the night, but I like Detroit to eventually pull away.

The pick: Lions 37 – Panthers 27

Monday Night Football

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Saints -2.5

Total: 48.5

We've saved the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week for the final game on the slate. Atlanta is, for now, back from the dead following an emphatic win over the Packers on Thursday night. I'm not ready to fully buy in on Michael Penix, but he was a clear upgrade over Cooper Rush and immediately re-unlocked Drake London as a premier weapon. Still, I thought the Falcons had to coach around Penix for much of that win at Lambeau Field, but the Packers' defense was so poor that it didn't matter.

On the other side, New Orleans may be shaping up as this year's "they can beat anyone or lose to anyone" team. The Saints were in position to win at home last week before turning it over on their final four drives of the game.

We'll cautiously side with the home team – and the more bankable quarterback – to win by a field goal, but this is a low-confidence pick to round out the week.

The pick: Saints 27 – Falcons 24