When the 
Arizona Cardinals and 
Carolina Panthers kick off the NFL betting season in Canton on Thursday, Aug. 6, they undertake something the other 30 teams won't: playing four preseason games in addition to reporting to camp a week early. For decades the Pro Football Hall of Fame Game has been sold as a reward -- extra reps, a head start, a national spotlight to open the football calendar. But is that early start an edge, or a hidden tax in fatigue and injury risk?
RotoWire pulled every Hall of Fame Game since 2005 -- 18 games played (2011, 2016 and 2020 were cancelled), covering 36 team-seasons -- and tracked what happened to those clubs in the regular season that followed.
The verdict: the "bonus" game is neither a blessing nor an outright curse. It's a coin flip, with a ceiling that has been stuck on the floor for 20 years.
The NFL Hall of Fame Game Headline Numbers
· A .511 average winning percentage. Across all 36 team-seasons since 2005, Hall of Fame Game participants have won just 51.1% of their regular-season games -- the definition of average. Exactly half (18 of 36) finished with a winning record.
· 38.9% reached the playoffs (14 of 36) -- right in line with, or a touch below, a team's baseline odds in the current 14-team format (43.75%).
· Only four of the 36 won a single playoff game (Eagles '06, Steelers '15, Jaguars '22, Texans '24).
· None advanced past the divisional round. Not one Hall of Fame Game team since 2005 has reached even a conference championship. Zero Super Bowl appearances, zero titles -- and per a broader since-2000 tally, only one HOF Game participant this century has ever reached a Super Bowl at all.
Translation: playing in Canton hasn't sunk teams into losing seasons -- the average participant lands almost exactly at .500 -- but it has come with a ceiling. Two full decades, 36 chances, and not one deep January run.
The NFL played a four-game preseason every year from 1978 through 2020. That changed in 2021, when the league's new collective bargaining agreement expanded the regular season from 16 to 17 games and cut the preseason to three games per team as a trade-off -- leaving Hall of Fame Game participants as the only teams still playing a fourth exhibition.
Every Hall of Fame Game team since 2005
Year | Team A | Record | Result | Team B | Record | Result |
2005 | Bears | 11–5 | Playoffs | Dolphins | 9–7 | — |
2006 | Raiders | 2–14 | — | Eagles | 10–6 | Playoffs (1 win) |
2007 | Saints | 7–9 | — | Steelers | 10–6 | Playoffs |
2008 | Colts | 12–4 | Playoffs | Washington | 8–8 | — |
2009 | Bills | 6–10 | — | Titans | 8–8 | — |
2010 | Cowboys | 6–10 | — | Bengals | 4–12 | — |
2012 | Cardinals | 5–11 | — | Saints | 7–9 | — |
2013 | Dolphins | 8–8 | — | Cowboys | 8–8 | — |
2014 | Giants | 6–10 | — | Bills | 9–7 | — |
2015 | Steelers | 10–6 | Playoffs (1 win) | Vikings | 11–5 | Playoffs |
2017 | Cardinals | 8–8 | — | Cowboys | 9–7 | — |
2018 | Bears | 12–4 | Playoffs | Ravens | 10–6 | Playoffs |
2019 | Broncos | 7–9 | — | Falcons | 7–9 | — |
2021 | Cowboys | 12–5 | Playoffs | Steelers | 9–7–1 | Playoffs |
2022 | Jaguars | 9–8 | Playoffs (1 win) | Raiders | 6–11 | — |
2023 | Jets | 7–10 | — | Browns | 11–6 | Playoffs |
2024 | Texans | 10–7 | Playoffs (1 win) | Bears | 5–12 | — |
2025 | Chargers | 11–6 | Playoffs | Lions | 9–8 | — |
Regular-season records the year each team played in the Hall of Fame Game. 2011, 2016 and 2020 games were cancelled. Seasons through 2020 were 16 games; 2021 onward are 17 games (win percentage used for the aggregate).
The injury tax is real -- just ask a kicker
The strongest case for a "hangover" isn't in the win column; it's on the injury report. An extra game means roughly 60 extra live snaps of exposure for players who are already fighting for roster spots -- and it has bitten before.
The cleanest example: in the 2015 Hall of Fame Game against the Vikings, Steelers kicker Shaun Suisham tore his ACL and cartilage in his left knee. He was placed on injured reserve and missed the entire 2015 season -- a starter lost before the "real" preseason even began. It's the kind of low-probability, high-cost outcome that only the two Canton teams are exposed to.
That's the honest framing for coaches: the downside of the extra game is concentrated and random -- a torn ACL, a hamstring, a concussion in a game that doesn't count -- while the upside (extra reps for young players and roster hopefuls) is real but diffuse. It's why most staffs now rest their front-line starters in Canton entirely.
Related: NFL Franchise-Defining Moments of the Last Decade.
Why it's a coin flip, not a curse
Before anyone brands Canton cursed, note the selection bias baked into the data. The Hall of Fame Game matchup is tied loosely to that year's enshrinement class and league scheduling, not to how good the teams are. The result is a near-random sampling of the league -- which is exactly why participants cluster around .500. The '18 Bears (12–4) and '21 Cowboys (12–5) proved a great season is still very possible; the '06 Raiders (2–14) and '24 Bears (5–12) proved the opposite.
The durable, defensible takeaway isn't that the game dooms a team -- it's that the extra game has never been a springboard to greatness. Twenty years, 36 teams, zero conference title appearances. The extra reps simply haven't translated into deep runs.
The 2026 watch list: Cardinals and Panthers
Both of this year's participants fit the historical mold -- ascending-but-unproven clubs rather than title favorites, which is precisely the profile that produces coin-flip seasons. Watch three things once the season starts:
· September starts. HOF Game teams open camp a week early; does that early conditioning show up as a fast start, or does the extra mileage bite late? Track Arizona's and Carolina's records through Week 4.
· Availability. The single biggest swing factor is whether either team loses a rotation player to a meaningless August game -- the Suisham scenario. Monitor snap counts of anyone of value who sees the field Thursday. (The Panthers, for what it's worth, have already been decimated by injuries in camp).
· The ceiling question. No Hall of Fame Game team since 2005 has reached a conference championship. If either the Cardinals or Panthers make a genuine playoff push, they'd be bucking two decades of history.
The bettor's and fantasy manager's angle
For futures markets, the lesson is restraint: don't read the extra preseason exposure as either a leg up or a red flag on a win total -- the historical signal is essentially zero, a .511 clip that's indistinguishable from the field. The one place it matters is player props and fantasy draft boards: a Canton participant carries marginally more training-camp injury risk for anyone who actually plays Thursday, so weigh that when a borderline starter's August availability is on the line.
Speaking of fantasy expertise:
Theo GremmingerSee Theo's personal rankings, tiers, and draft targets.View RankingsRotoWire Analyst
Ian HartitzSee Ian's personal rankings, tiers, and draft targets.View RankingsRotoWire Analyst
Jagger MaySee Jagger's personal rankings, tiers, and draft targets.View RankingsRotoWire Analyst
Jim CoventrySee Jim's personal rankings, tiers, and draft targets.View RankingsRotoWire Analyst
Jeff EricksonSee Jeff's personal rankings, tiers, and draft targets.View RankingsRotoWire Analyst
Jerry DonabedianSee Jerry's personal rankings, tiers, and draft targets.View RankingsRotoWire Analyst
Mario PuigSee Mario's personal rankings, tiers, and draft targets.View RankingsMethodology: Hall of Fame Game participants, 2005–2025 (18 games played; 2011, 2016 and 2020 cancelled), 36 team-seasons. Regular-season records and playoff outcomes from official NFL standings; aggregate win percentage computed to normalize 16- and 17-game seasons. Injury case study via NFL.com. Since-2000 conference/Super Bowl tallies corroborated by published Hall of Fame Game trend data. Prepared for RotoWire.com.
