Week 1 Fantasy Football QB Rankings & Tiers: Justin Herbert is set up to SMASH

Week 1 is here! After seven long, cold months: Meaningful NFL football is back, baby!

I'll break down my weekly QB rankings and tiers each and every week *with* some bigger-picture questions sprinkled in along the way. This week's additional topics feature:

1. What offensive lines could have the most problems in the pressure department?
2. How bad was Drake Maye *really* down the stretch against top defenses last season?
3. Do these stationary pocket passers *really* lack high-end fantasy upside?
4. What QBs were most reliant on rushing when it came to their 2025 fantasy production?
5. Did we actually see the Chiefs' passing game take a step forward last season?
6. What is the best DST to have in fantasy football?
7. Could we see this Bears defense really struggle in the early going of 2026?

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Check out the rest of my positional ranks and tiers for Week 1:

RB Ranks and Tiers for Week 1
WR Ranks and Tiers for Week 1
TE Ranks and Tiers for Week 1

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Tier 1: The Dual-Threat ballers

• QB1: Josh Allen (at HOU). Was held to just 8.1 fantasy points against this group in Week 12, 2025 — just the fifth time Allen has scored less than 10 fantasy points in a non-Week 18 game in the last three years! Of course, even an elite defense can't stop Allen from falling into the end zone: Only Derrick Henry (61.6) had more *rushing* fantasy points on plays from inside the opponent's 3-yard line than Allen (55.4) last season.
• QB2: Lamar Jackson (at IND). Fully healthy Lamar gets a Colts defense that was bottom-10 in pressure rate *and* ran zone coverage at the eighth-lowest mark in the NFL. Translation: There could be a LOT of opportunities for Lamar to do what he does best — punish defenses on scrambles and extended plays. Here's to hoping new OC Declan Doyle knows what he's doing.
• QB3: Jalen Hurts (vs. WSH). Hurts had a down 2025 … and still averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game (QB7), a mark which he's cleared in seven of his last eight full matchups against the Eagles' NFC East rival. Only the Cowboys and Buccaneers allowed more fantasy points per game to QBs than the Commanders last season. 
• QB4: Jayden Daniels (at PHI). Like with Hurts: We didn't see the best version of Daniels in 2025, and yet, he averaged 18.9 fantasy points per game in his lone four full starts. The rising third-year QB will need to be ready to run to overcome this fearsome defensive front; just realize Daniels is one of only three QBs RotoWire projections have going for north of 30 rushing yards in Week 1.

Key question: What offensive lines could have the most problems in the pressure department?

The following chart denotes every offense's combined pressure rate with the opposing defense (2025 numbers). Red means the QB is operating behind a bad offensive line and facing a good pass rush, while blue denotes QBs who should have plenty of time to throw. Example: The Packers and Browns look especially screwed at the line of scrimmage, while the Rams, Steelers, Bears and Dolphins should be operating from clean pockets more dropbacks than not. 

The Bills, Ravens and Commanders sit at 77 percent and profile as QBs who don't exactly have pristine matchups at the line of scrimmage. Still, it's the latter group that gives me the most cause for concern considering the potentially sad state of this Washington offensive line.

Reminder: LT Laremy Tunsil (triceps, IR) is expected to miss a significant portion of the season. RotoWire offensive line rankings have this group ranked just 27th coming into the season. We only saw Jayden Daniels take two dropbacks in the preseason … and they resulted in two pressures and a sack.

Daniels has the sort of skill set to still be great in fantasy even during a relatively rough real-life performance, but keep an eye on how this offensive line performs during the early stages of 2026: This doesn't exactly profile as a world-beating group of big uglies up front.

Track player roles with our NFL Depth Charts to see who's in line for snaps this season.

Tier 2: Plenty of Reason for Excitement

• QB5: Joe Burrow (vs. TB). Hopefully Burrow can overcome his Week 1 demons: He's posted brutal 82-0-0, 164-0-0 and 113-1-0 passing lines in his last three season-opening performances. Of course, two of those came against Myles Garrett and company, and this year he gets a Buccaneers squad that allowed more fantasy points per game to QBs than any defense outside of Dallas last season. Wheels up!
• QB6: Justin Herbert (vs. ARZ). The Chargers have the highest implied team total (28.5) of Week 1. While this banged-up interior offensive line could be a problem in 2026, the Cardinals' reigning bottom-7 defense in both scoring and pressure rate doesn't exactly look like the group to bring out the worst from this Mike McDaniel-led attack. One of my bold offseason calls featured the Chargers leading the league in scoring and Herbert capturing MVP honors. This is as good a start as we could ask for!
• QB7: Caleb Williams (at CAR). Year two of the Caleb Williams-Ben Johnson partnership should produce even more fireworks if everything goes to plan, especially with Da Bears' banged-up defense looking like a prime candidate to force this offense into weekly shootouts. Vegas has Chicago implied to score 25 points — tied for the seventh-highest mark in Week 1. 
• QB8: Drake Maye (at SEA): The reigning QB2 in fantasy points per game has a tough start to 2026 on the road inside what figures to be a ROWDY Lumen Field. Maybe the newfound presence of A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs leads to enough firepower for Maye and company to overcome their February demons, but it's tough to look past the young QB's mostly down splits against the league's best defenses last season (more on that below).

Key question: How bad was Drake Maye *really* down the stretch against top defenses last season?

Things weren't great: We saw pretty massive drop-offs from Maye's league-leading regular season marks in completion rate (72% vs. 58.3%) and yards per attempt (8.9 vs. 6.9) during his four-game postseason stretch.

And yet, Maye did generally still get his in terms of counting stats at the end of the day: 

• Wild card vs. Chargers: 268-1-1 passing, 10-66-0 rushing, 17.3 fantasy points
• Divisional Round vs. Texans: 179-3-1 passing, 4-10-0 rushing, 15.2 fantasy points
• AFC Championship vs. Broncos: 86-0-0 passing, 10-65-1 rushing, 14.2 fantasy points
• Super Bowl vs. Seahawks: 295-2-2 passing, 5-37-0 rushing, 17.5 fantasy points

Numbers that would make you PUMPED to have started Maye in fantasy land? Not exactly, but not too shabby of a floor against four of the toughest defenses the NFL had to offer! The production on the ground certainly helped matters: Maye's 69 rushing fantasy points were the sixth-most at the position last season.

I'm especially fine rolling with Maye as his usual upside QB1 self despite the tough matchup thanks to the Patriots' improved WR room and the Seahawks' banged-up secondary.

Tier 3: Pocket Passing Gawds in Winnable Matchups

• QB9: Dak Prescott (at NYG). Fun fact: Dak's Week 18 loss to the Giants last season (he only played half the game) marked his first L against the Cowboys' NFC East rival since 2016! Dak's last three healthy seasons have produced 4,449-37-10, 4,516-36-9 and 4,552-30-10 passing lines. Nobody should be surprised if the Cowboys lead the league in scoring this season — Vegas has them with Week 1's sixth-highest implied team total.
• QB10: Jared Goff (vs. NO). The Lions sure look like a candidate to lean on the pass more than usual this season with David Montgomery out of the picture and this banged-up defense not exactly looking like a world-beating group at the moment. RotoWire Projections have Goff throwing for the second-most yards (267.7) and touchdowns (1.93) of any QB to open up the season. Only the Chargers (28.5) have a higher implied team total than the Lions (28.3) in Week 1.
• QB11: Matthew Stafford (vs. SF in Australia). There could be some touchdown regression for the reigning league MVP over the course of 2026, but in Week 1? It's tough to look at a 49ers defense that Stafford shredded for 389-3-0 and 280-4-0 passing performances last season and feel even a little bit of fear. Just keep those fingers crossed that No. 1 WR Puka Nacua won't face early season discipline from the NFL following his, ahem, eventful offseason.

Key question: Do these stationary pocket passers *really* lack high-end fantasy upside?

Not really!

QB most top-5 fantasy finishes in 2024-2025 seasons:

• 12: Lamar Jackson
• 11: Josh Allen
• 10: Jalen Hurts
• 9: Joe Burrow
• 8: Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, Caleb Williams

Is it extra cool when QBs offer big-time rushing upside? Absolutely, but that doesn't mean you can't expect big-time weekly upside from a pure pocket passer — particularly in winnable spots like our Tier 3 group has to open up the season.

Tier 4: There's QB1 Upside if you Squint

• QB12: Trevor Lawrence (vs. CLE). Nobody scored more fantasy points per game than T-Law during Weeks 10-18 last season (23!), and this Browns defense no longer employs that Myles Garrett guy. That said: Expecting Lawrence to run for nine touchdowns again in 2026 feels like wishful thinking, and I'm a bit worried about RotoWire's 28th-ranked offensive line. I get the argument for ranking Lawrence as high as QB9, but I feel a bit safer with the unc pocket passers given their superior matchups.
• QB13: Jaxson Dart (vs. DAL). Dart probably won't get as good of a matchup as we saw last season, but hey, the NFL's reigning 32nd-ranked group in fantasy points allowed to the position also allowed the third-most rushing yards (398) and the most rushing touchdowns (8) to QBs last season. Dart will fall a few spots if Malik Nabers (knee) is unavailable, but it's tough to keep someone with his proven rushing upside too far down in the ranks.
• QB14: Kyler Murray (vs. GB). This would be a tougher spot to get behind if Micah Parsons (knee, PUP) were available, but the star pass-rusher will miss at least the first four games of the season. We didn't see Kyler put his best foot forward during his injury-shortened 2025 campaign; just realize the 29-year-old veteran has proven 20-plus fantasy point per game upside and is now operating in arguably the most-loaded and well-schemed offense of his career.
• QB15: Brock Purdy (at LAR in Australia). The NFL's all-time leader in yards per attempt and passer rating in the Super Bowl era will be the first to take on the new-look Myles Garrett-led Rams defense, though Aaron Donald isn't expected to make his return for another week or two. One of just four QBs to average north of 21 fantasy points per game during the second half of last season, a matchup with arguably the best defense in the NFL is the only reason why Purdy is ranked this low.
• QB16: Malik Willis (at LV). Willis is one of just three QBs that RotoWire projects to rush for 30-plus yards in Week 1. If we aren't signing up for the Malik experience in this matchup, when are we?

Key question: What QBs were most reliant on rushing when it came to their 2025 fantasy production?

The chart below denotes the top-30 quarterbacks in fantasy points per game last season and what percentage of those points came from passing vs. rushing (minimum 9 starts):

Dart really was reliant on his legs, but then again, we've consistently seen players with this level of high-end rushing volume perform quite well in fantasy land. Consider: 26 of 28 QBs with at least 100 rush attempts in a season have posted top-12 numbers in fantasy points per game over the last decade. That's a 93% hit rate! And hell, even the two exceptions have reasonable explanations: 2018 Lamar Jackson was a top-12 QB after taking over as a starter (his numbers are skewed from brief appearances earlier in the season), and 2020 Cam Newton was the only QB older than 30 in the sample.

I'm not overly optimistic in the Giants offense being a pretty unit to watch this season, but it might not matter in fantasy land if Dart continues to run the ball like a madman.

Tier 5: You Probably have Better Options

• QB17: Tyler Shough (at DET). The rising second-year signal-caller ended last season HOT and worked as a low-end QB1 down the stretch … against a bum-ass schedule. But hey, the Lions are a reigning bottom-10 defense in fantasy points per game allowed to QBs themselves and won't have safeties Brian Branch (Achilles, IR) or Kerby Joseph (knee, IR) to start the season.
• QB18: Baker Mayfield (at CIN). He was unironically getting MVP chants after six weeks of immaculate play to start last season before injuries upended virtually this entire offense. Baker might be healthy now, but Emeka Egbuka (toe) is not, and losing Mike Evans certainly isn't a positive. This ranking will look silly if the Bengals' Dexter Lawrence-led defense isn't as improved as expected.
• QB19: Jordan Love (at MIN). Love has posted 229-1-1, 256-3-0, 389-4-3, 185-1-0 and most recently 139-0-0 passing performances in five career starts against Brian Flores and the Vikings. Love ranks 10th in EPA per dropback (+0.12) and 22nd in passer rating (96.4) against the blitz among 40 qualified QBs since 2023. I'm bullish on the loss of Josh Jacobs leading to more passing volume here, but am more optimistic about bigger fantasy returns in Weeks 2-5 against the Jets, Falcons, Buccaneers, Bears and Cowboys.
• QB20: Bo Nix (at KC). He has posted 182-1-1, 295-0-0 and 215-2-0 passing performances in three career non-Week 18 matchups against Steve Spagnuolo and company. I'd like to see visual confirmation that Nix's in-game mobility is back to 100 percent before getting him back into the fantasy QB1 conversation. The Broncos have the fifth-lowest implied team total (19.8) in Week 1.
• QB21: Patrick Mahomes (vs. DEN). His boom in fantasy production last season was almost entirely thanks to unprecedented rushing volume, something that sure doesn't seem to be on the table in Game 1 coming off last year's season-ending torn ACL. It'd make sense if the Chiefs really lean on Kenneth Walker and the run game as much as possible against probably the NFL's best secondary. Could ranking Patrick Mahomes this low look very stupid as early as Week 2? Absolutely, but I'd like to get some evidence that there's legit upside in an offense lacking many (any?) big-time playmakers at WR and TE before overly relying on Mahomes in fantasy land.

Key question: Did we actually see the Chiefs' passing game take a step forward last season?

Not really. Rashee Rice managed to post some solid fantasy numbers on the back of extreme short-to-intermediate volume, but that also came alongside rough career-low marks in yards per reception (10.8) and yards per target (7.3). As a whole, Mahomes continued to post rather mediocre numbers in fantasy points per game from passing.

It's also not like we've seen Mahomes have much success in this spot in recent years: He's posted 306-1-1, 240-0-2, 266-1-0 and most recently 276-1-1 passing lines in four matchups against Vic Fangio's defense since 2023. Expect to see Mahomes up a tier or two in Weeks 2-4 against the Colts, Dolphins and Raiders.

Tier 6: We're Saying there's a Chance

• QB22: Sam Darnold (vs. NE). Joins Jared Goff as the NFL's only two QBs to throw for 4,000-plus yards in each of the last two seasons. Wouldn't losing the team's top-two rushers from 2025 lead to more passing? Maybe, though losing Klint Kubiak for ex-49ers assistant Brian Fleury isn't super encouraging.
• QB23: C.J. Stroud (vs. BUF). Actually posted career-high marks in EPA per dropback (+0.16, 9th) and success rate (48.4%, 15th) last regular season … before having 10 combined interceptions and fumbles in two playoff games (as many as he had in his 14 previous contests). The lack of firepower in this passing game outside of Nico Collins makes it tough to fathom big fantasy fireworks in this spot, even if things look better than they did last January.
• QB24: Jacoby Brissett (at LAC). Only the Browns (16.5) have a lower implied team total than the Cardinals (18) to open the season. Kudos to Jacoby for working as the QB8 in fantasy points per game after taking over in Week 6, but the constant comeback-mode game script was the main factor — this wasn't anyone's idea of an efficient offense. I'm dubious the good times keep rolling in the fantasy streets under the tutelage of Mike LaFleur/Nathaniel Hackett behind RotoWire's 23rd-ranked offensive line.
• QB25: Daniel Jones (vs. BAL). I expect the Jesse Minter-led Ravens defense to be quite awesome (they're a GREAT DST pick for the first month and a half of the season). I'd also like to actually see Daniel Jones function as the great QB he was during the first 10 weeks of last season with my own two eyes before simply assuming the man will be at 100 percent following last year's season-ending RIGHT (power/plant foot) Achilles tear. Having a potentially hobbled Alec Pierce (ankle) also doesn't help matters.

Key question: Who is the best DST to have in fantasy football?

A DST question in a QB ranking/tiers article? Talk about a crossover episode!

But yeah: I love the Ravens DST to start the season, and I don't care who knows! Minter is from the Mike Macdonald Michigan/Harbaugh tree of defensive success; there are multiple blue-chippers in Kyle Hamilton and Trey Hendrickson, and the schedule is borderline erotic:

• Week 1: Colts
• Week 2: Saints
• Week 3: Cowboys (the one bad game)
• Week 4: Titans
• Week 5: Falcons
• Week 6: Browns

The only groups I'd rather have over the Ravens: Rams, Texans, Seahawks and Broncos. That's it.

Tier 7: Old Dudes & Volatile Young'uns

• QB26: Bryce Young (vs. CHI). Young has cleared 250 passing yards in seven of 44 career starts (16%).
• QB27: Aaron Rodgers (vs. ATL). Rodgers hasn't posted a top-5 weekly fantasy finish since leaving the Packers.
• QB28: Geno Smith (at TEN). We'll find out if 2025 was simply a down year for Geno and OC Frank Reich … or a sign of more bad things to come.
• QB29: Cam Ward (vs. NYJ). Brian Daboll's offense looked ROUGH in the preseason; maybe the NFL's reigning 32nd-ranked defense in EPA allowed per dropback can help ease the transition.
• QB30: Kirk Cousins (vs. MIA). The Raiders' QB1 (for now) is a sitting duck in the pocket at 38 years of age and has *one* pass-catcher of note to get the ball to. The matchup is nicey, though!
• QB31: Tua Tagovailoa (at PIT). The only reason why Tua isn't QB32 is because Michael Penix (knee) won't be active just yet, so there's a lower chance of a mid-game benching. I'd put the over/under of Tua's starts at 2.5 and pound the under.
• QB32: Deshaun Watson (at JAX). He ranks 39th among 40 qualified QBs in EPA per dropback and success rate since joining the Browns back in 2022. Nobody has a lower implied team total than the Browns (16.5) in Week 1.

Key question: Could we see this Bears defense really struggle in the early going of 2026?

It sure looks possible based on some of the injuries they're dealing with in the secondary at the moment. We'll find out official statuses later this week, but for now:

• CB Kyler Gordon (calf, PUP)
• CB Jaylon Jones (undisclosed, IR)
• CB Jaylon Johnson (arm, questionable)
• CB Tyrique Stevenson (undisclosed, questionable)
• S Coby Bryant (knee, IR)
• S Elijah Hicks (shin, questionable)
• S Xavier Woods (groin, questionable)

Make sure to check out RotoWire's critically acclaimed Injury Report and Practice Participation pages throughout the week for updated info.

There's also plenty of potential for negative regression in the takeaway department after the Bears led the NFL with 30 combined interceptions and fumble recoveries last season.

Does this make Bryce Young someone fantasy managers should go out of their way to start? Absolutely not, but hey, I've seen worse low-priced DFS darts, and don't be surprised if Tetairoa McMillan and/or Jalen Coker go out and make some plays.