Through three weeks of the 2026 season, Kalif Raymond is the PPR WR12, Devaughn Vele is outscoring Rashee Rice, Ladd McConkey and Jaylen Waddle and 92 wide receivers have more fantasy points than Marvin Harrison. Just like we all expected!
I'll break down my weekly RB rankings and tiers each and every week *with* some bigger-picture questions sprinkled in along the way. This week's additional topics feature:
- Which receivers are most overdue for a touchdown?
- Who have been the most efficient real-life WRs in the NFL?
- Which defenses have been the worst against wide receivers this season?
- Which teams have had the least amount of catchable deep targets this season?
- Which defenses have played an outlier amount of man coverage?
As always: It's a great day to be great.
Tier 1: The Big Seven
- WR1: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (vs. LAC). 104 PPR points through the first three weeks of the season. Only 1999 Marvin Harrison (106.6) tops that number in NFL history.
- WR2: Ja'Marr Chase (vs. JAX). Only "concern" is Chase's lack of goodness after the catch to start the season: He's averaging just 2.4 yards after the catch per reception, half of his previous career low set in 2022 (4.8). That ranks 36th among 47 WRs with 10-plus receptions this season. Don't expect it to persist much longer, of course, but yeah: It'd be a lot cooler to see one of Chase's patented MASSIVE YAC gains here before too long!
- WR3: Chris Olave (vs. ATL on MNF). Ripped off 6-85-1, 10-148-2, 8-119-1, 10-182-0, 8-86-1 and 9-107-0 receiving lines in his last six games dating to last season. THE MAN DON'T MISS! Up next is a banged-up Falcons cornerback room that is one of just five groups allowing 40-plus PPR points per game to WRs this season. Giddyup!
- WR4: Amon-Ra St. Brown (at CAR on SNF). 4-19-1 receiving line in Week 3 featured St. Brown's fewest yards in a full game since Week 8, 2024. Note that he also scored a touchdown in that seven-yard performance — such is life in the ever high-flying Lions offense. Expect more fireworks this Sunday night against an already mid Panthers defense that could be without both Jaycee Horn (quad, out indefinitely) and potentially Mike Jackson. Side note: This is one of just two guaranteed outdoor games for Jared Goff and company until Week 17 — and the other is in Miami.
- WR5: CeeDee Lamb (at HOU). Averaging career highs in yards per reception (15.5), yards per target (12.4), catch rate (80%) and receiving yards per game (103). Not too shabby! Derek Stingley isn't an easy matchup, but then again, he's allowed eight of 13 targets to be caught in his coverage for 164 yards and a score (to Ja'Marr Chase) this season. More important: Stingley has lined up as the left wide corner on 149 snaps vs. just one each in the slot and as the right wide corner. Don't expect any sort of shadow coverage here.
- WR6: Davante Adams (at PHI). Unc still has it: Adams has ripped off 8-195-2 and 7-137-0 receiving lines on the back of 23 targets. Per ESPN's Ben Solak, that's the most receiving yards Adams has had in a two-game stretch during his entire Hall of Fame-worthy career. And the man did plenty of that damage against ace Broncos CB Patrick Surtain! Up next is another tough matchup against Quinyon Mitchell, though the Eagles' ace corner hasn't spent much time away from his spot as the defense's right outside corner (87%) this season (he split time nearly evenly on the left vs. right side in 2025).
- WR7: Drake London (at NO on MNF). Last seven games with Michael Penix: 8-110-1, 10-158-1, 4-42-0, 9-118-3, 6-104-1, 7-119-0 and 9-194-0. Not too shabby! Up next is a Saints defense that has allowed No. 1 pass-game options Amon-Ra St. Brown (10-67-2), Rashod Bateman (7-88-1) and Brock Bowers (10-116-1) to put together big days at the office against them to start the season.
Key question: Which receivers are most overdue for a touchdown?
Well, nine wide receivers have racked up at least 20 targets and still have zero receiving touchdowns to their name:
- 25: George Pickens
- 24: Josh Downs
- 23: Tetairoa McMillan, Malik Washington
- 21: Xavier Hutchinson
- 20: Drake London, Jaylen Waddle, KC Concepcion, Carnell Tate
Of course, London's inclusion here is heavily aided by only getting one game from Penix; the big man inexplicably has zero end-zone targets this season! A similar story is true for many others on this list, however, McMillan (3) and Hutchinson (2) have at least had multiple end-zone targets through three weeks.
Tier 2: Ballers, Shot Callers
- WR8: Zay Flowers (vs. TEN). Averaging 9.36 yards per route run. That's more than twice as good as the league's second-most efficient WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (4.35). Flowers also leads the way in separation score and a number of other efficiency metrics. I expect a full-time role a week after Flowers looked fully healthy with his opportunities; the ceiling is the roof as the engine of this Lamar Jackson-led passing attack that is implied to score a whopping 27.25 points (2nd most in Week 4) against the lowly Titans.
- WR9: Garrett Wilson (at CHI). Was getting out-targeted by Adonai Mitchell after two weeks, but then AD hurt his finger, leading to Wilson seeing a season-high 13 targets. The baller made the most out of the extra looks (10-107-1) and now gets to feast against a Bears defense that looked awfully mortal in Week 1 before rallying in Week 2 (in a rainy matchup against Carson Wentz) and Week 3 (against the struggling Eagles). Wheels up with Geno Smith looking far more like the 2024 than 2025 version of himself.
- WR10: Parker Washington (at CIN). Ripped off 6-145-1, 8-115-0, 5-86-1, 7-107-1, 5-83-1, 7-98-0 and 3-40-1 receiving lines in his last seven games. And here's the thing: We haven't even seen this passing game need to keep its foot fully on the gas in a good matchup or Parker do much after the catch. Overall, Washington averages just 0.9 receiving yards after the catch per reception — second fewest among 47 qualified WRs. Anecdotally, I think this is due to Washington diving (and securing) a good chunk of his catches — don't be surprised if the longtime ace return man shows off some open-field goodness against a Bengals defense that has allowed the most yards per reception (13.6) to WRs aligned from the slot since the beginning of last season.
- WR11: Christian Watson (at TB). Ripped off 6-147-2, 4-41-1 and 7-96-1 receiving lines to start the season. The overall WR5 in PPR points has a case to be ranked even higher; the only "problem" is the reality that this is truly a 1A/1B passing attack between Watson and Matthew Golden (29 vs. 30 targets). Still, Green Bay has the highest dropback rate over expected (+11%) and ranks second in plays per minute (2.3). That's enough volume to enable multiple high-end fantasy receivers, especially if Jordan Love and this offensive line can start to gel even a little bit (uncertain).
- WR12: Tetairoa McMillan (vs. DET on SNF). Caught just one pass for 12 yards on 25 reps against No. 1 Browns CB Denzel Ward. Not great! Good news: The Lions don't employ anyone who should be viewed in the same light as the Browns' longtime stud corner — only the Commanders have allowed more PPR points per game to wide receivers this season. NOBODY has allowed more completions on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield. Throw in a condensed passing game with Jalen Coker (quad) likely sidelined, and this ranking could look low by Monday morning.
- WR13: George Pickens (at HOU). His 7-82-0 receiving line on a season-high 11 targets was even more impressive to watch and included a chunk gain negated by penalty. It's certainly been surprising to see Pickens fail to find the end zone (position-high 25 targets without a receiving TD) or create a chunk play (only Michael Wilson has more targets without a 20+ yard gain). And yet, I'm not worried due to the talent at hand and this Dak Prescott-led offensive environment. It's a matter of when, not if, Pickens gets back to putting up big-time numbers – why not this Sunday?
- WR14: Tee Higgins (vs. JAX). 5-95-0 and 6-90-1 receiving lines the last two weeks have Higgins sitting pretty as the WR16 in PPR points through three games. Expect PLENTY of points to be flying on the scoreboard in a matchup that features the highest game total (51.5) of Week 3. I don't plan on ranking Higgins outside the position's top-15 anytime he and No. 9 are healthy enough to suit up.
- WR15: Justin Jefferson (vs. MIA). Will be moved inside the top 10 if he enters Sunday with no injury designation; just realize any sort of game-time decision stuff would be problematic with the Vikings and Dolphins kicking off in the late-afternoon slate. You know what's also not ideal? Kyler Murray posting the single-worst single-game passing success mark of any QB Kevin O'Connell has coached with the Vikings. Just one game … but it wasn't a good one!
- WR16: DeVonta Smith (vs. LAR). Good for one ridiculous catch a week, but man, NOTHING has been easy in this Sean Mannion-led Eagles offensive "attack." The team has needed an average of 8.2 yards for a first down on third downs this season – fourth most in the league and a far cry from the 2021-2024 days when the team regularly ranked inside the top half of the league. Nobody has run less play-action (15.1%) this season. Not great, and Vegas seems dubious a meaningful bounce back is incoming: The Eagles' 20.25 implied point total is lower than teams like the Steelers, Patriots and Giants in Week 4.
Key question: Who have been the most efficient real-life WRs in the NFL?
The below chart denotes every WR's yards and targets per route run this season among receivers with at least 25 routes run.
QUICK LINKS
Goodness gracious Zay Flowers! 9.36 yards per route run! The highest mark in the last 10 years is held by 2023 Tyreek Hill at 3.85! Obviously this will fall off a bit, but either way: The explosive 26-year-old talent is being unleashed as the focal point of this Lamar Jackson-led passing game and is passing his early tests with flying colors. More of this and he'll be anyone's idea of what kids like to call a league-winner.
Tier 3: You should Feel Good About Starting Them
- WR17: Josh Downs (at WSH in London). Downs has racked up 20 targets in the last two weeks and continues to effortlessly separate all over the field. Of course, the associated 7-72-0 and 5-77-0 receiving lines came in tough matchups against the Chiefs and Texans — something that is NOT on the table this week against the league-worst Commanders. Fun fact: Commanders CB Mike Sainristil is being called Mike "stand-real-still." The third-year corner has allowed 13 receiving touchdowns in his coverage since the beginning of last season, nobody else has allowed even 10! No. 4 CB Fabian Moreau turned 32 in April and is on his fifth team since 2021, so it doesn't exactly look like there are too many great reinforcements to turn to at this point.
- WR18: Jaylen Waddle (at SF). Don't love Waddle being in a walking boot after the Broncos' thrilling Sunday night victory over the Rams! He's believed to be "fine," but personally I don't make a habit of wearing walking boots when I'm feeling "fine." Here's hoping the Broncos' No. 1 WR is indeed "fine" enough to get back to partying like it's Week 2 (8-138-0) instead of Week 1 (1-2-0) or Week 3 (2-10-0, 14 rush yards, a two-point conversion). I like his chances against a 49ers defense that just gave up all kinds of production to Michael Wilson (11-89-1 on 17 targets), though it'd be a lot cooler if the Broncos showed more life in the first 30 minutes of a game one of these days (27th in EPA per dropback in the first half).
- WR19: Matthew Golden (at TB). Is playing great football (WR13 in PPR points!), and yet, has had a TON of meat left on the bone. Golden has already racked up 95 DPI yards across three weeks. That easily leads the NFL (Tre' Harris is in second at 54) and would have ranked sixth across the entire 2025 season! This has also helped lead to the second-year talent racking up a league-high 361 unrealized air yards (87.4 more than second-place!), which have also at least been partially on him due to three official drops — tied with DK Metcalf and teammate Christian Watson for the most among wide receivers. Borderline WR1 production with realistic potential for MUCH more … yeah, I'd say that warrants top-20 treatment ahead of a matchup with the pass-funnel Bucs!
- WR20: Rashee Rice (at LV). Posted a strong 7-88-0 receiving line on a season-high nine targets (just 8 in Weeks 1-2 combined) against the Dolphins in Week 3. As discussed last week: There was reason to buy low considering Rice looks good, Patrick Mahomes looks good and the Chiefs faced two of the league's more man-heavy defenses during the first two weeks of the season. Up next is a Raiders defense that ranks just 16th in man coverage rate this season. Giddyup!
- WR21: DJ Moore (vs. NE). Speaking of unrealized air yards: DJM has 274 — second most in the NFL behind only Matthew Golden. And Moore got knocked out early in the Bills' Week 2 win over the Lions! The concern this week is a potential shadow date with stud Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez, who shadowed both DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba heavily. Now, against those two, Gonzalez had six total snaps in the slot — the Bills have aligned Moore in the slot, inline or even in the backfield on 24 percent of his snaps this season — but still: Not ideal! A better matchup would have Moore at the top of this tier.
- WR22: Michael Wilson (at NYG). Averaging just 5.3 yards per target this season — 44th among 52 qualified WRs — but hey, that's more than enough when you're given 17 targets in one game! Now, Jacoby Brissett threw 37 and 28 passes in Wilson's season-opening duds compared to 52 in his big Week 3; a more neutral game script against a Giants defense that hasn't stopped the run should slow things. Then again, Wilson has proven capable of "getting away with it" for the better part of his last three months of playing football at this point, and clearly Marvin Harrison Jr. doesn't look ready to change that!
- WR23: Malik Nabers (vs. ARI). Has gone 6-69-0, 1-1-0 (limited by a shoulder injury) and 5-26-0 (bad weather conditions). There have been flashes, but the separation as a whole hasn't been good, and it seems like a matter of when, not if, J.J. McCarthy takes over for Jameis Winston — AKA the NFL's worst QB through three weeks. Don't give Nabers away in the trade streets, but I'm not too optimistic about a banged-up version of him exactly excelling with the artist known as nine under center.
- WR24: Ladd McConkey (at SEA). Has been one of the only bright spots in this sad, sad excuse for an NFL offense, but now must grapple with a Seahawks defense that makes life tough on pretty much everyone, though hey, Terry McLaurin (6-77-1) certainly did his thing last week. I wouldn't object to moving McConkey up a few spots; this is mostly just an effect of Justin Herbert and company looking bad enough to only be implied to score 18 points this week — the same as the Browns and Buccaneers!
- WR25: Mike Evans (vs. DEN). Considered day-to-day after suffering what sure looked like a painful rib injury in Week 3. If active, Evans continues to profile as a safe bet for an anytime touchdown, though it won't be easy against Patrick Surtain and company. This ranking is a bit of a hedge with Evans likely not functioning at 100 percent if active and 49ers-Broncos unfortunately being a late-afternoon kickoff.
Key question: Which defenses have been the worst against wide receivers this season?
Answer: The Commanders and it's not particularly close.
Overall, the Commanders have allowed *seven* more PPR points per game to wide receivers than the next-worst defense in the NFL this season.
You know what? Maybe I'm still too low on Josh Downs. Wheels up for the talented slot maven ahead of this London-themed smash spot.
Tier 4: Life is Mostly Good
- WR26: Stefon Diggs (vs. IND in London). Through three weeks: Terry McLaurin has a 10-141-1 receiving line on 22 targets, and Stefon Diggs has gone for 13-135-3 … also on 22 targets. Perfectly balanced! Hell yeah. Don't tell anyone, but a lot of passing efficiency numbers paint Marcus Mariota as the slightly better QB to Jayden Daniels since 2024. Just saying! Don't shoot the messenger! Borderline WR2 treatment is deserved in an offense that has struggled to run the ball *and* boasts a defense that can't slow down opposing passing games. Translation: Washington games represent one of the more fantasy-friendly environments in the league for pass-catchers on both sidelines.
- WR27: Terry McLaurin (vs. IND in London).
- WR28: Jameson Williams (at CAR on SNF). Has gone 4-45-0, 2-33-0 and 4-49-0 to start the season and boasts the lowest yards after the catch per reception in the league. That said: Do we magically think 25-year-old Jamo became bad at football? I don't. And the Lions' third-ranked scoring offense still looks GOOD. What better time to get right than against an already mid Panthers defense that could be without both Jaycee Horn (quad, out indefinitely) and potentially Mike Jackson?
- WR29: Devaughn Vele (vs. ATL on MNF). Started the season strong with PPR WR10 and WR29 performances before last week's WR63 dud. That said: This Saints passing game is chucking the ball (+4% dropback rate over expected, 7th) and ranks third in plays per minute. They also are likely to be without No. 1 RB Travis Etienne (hamstring) for a good minute. Up next is a banged-up Falcons cornerback room that is one of just five groups allowing 40-plus PPR points per game to WRs this season. Don't be surprised if next Monday night we spell redemption V-e-l-e.
- WR30: Jordan Addison (vs. MIA). This assumes Justin Jefferson (ankle) plays. If not, Addison would move up to WR21 territory with guys like Rashee Rice and DJ Moore. After all, the talented 24-year-old did turn in a 5-90-1 receiving line that could have been MUCH bigger if Kyler Murray hit him in stride on a potential deep 74-yard TD. I'm not exactly certain Kyler is going to ball out as a passer this season, but he should be good enough to enable *one* high-end pass-catcher, right? RIGHT?
- WR31: Deebo Samuel Sr. (vs. DEN). 80-yard TD off a hook-and-ladder saved the day with Deebo someone earning *zero* targets across 60 minutes. He'll move up to the top of this tier should Mike Evans (rib) not suit up; just realize Samuel is very much being used as a true gadget in this offense. Overall, Deebo's five-yard average depth of route is easily the lowest in the league among 118 receivers to run at least 25 routes. Good news: This Brock Purdy-led offense looks so efficient at the moment that minimal opportunities could continue to produce something close to borderline WR2 numbers in fantasy land.
- WR32: Luther Burden III (vs. NYJ). That's more like it! Burden turned a season-high 11 targets into a stellar 7-61-1 receiving line and chipped in a seven-yard rush attempt. It's still nucking futs that Kalif Raymond is fantasy football's WR12 through three weeks, but Burden has at least comfortably separated himself from Rome Odunze in terms of total targets (23 vs. 13). This is thanks in large part to Burden getting more designed looks closer to the line of scrimmage (8.9-yard average route depth, 70th among 118 receivers), while Odunze is more so in the Maserati Marv sacrificial X role (11.4, 17th). Shoutout to Burden for forcing six missed tackles on receptions this season — no other WR has more than four. The Jets have actually been a top-10 defense in fewest PPR points per game allowed to wide receivers this season, but I'm less concerned about that thanks to the likelihood that Burden continues to get fed these easier underneath looks.
- WR33: DK Metcalf (at CLE on TNF). Denzel Ward shadowed Tetairoa McMillan on 49 percent of his routes in Week 3, though we only saw a 26 percent shadow rate on Metcalf in their matchup last year. Ward has also only lined up in the slot on two reps all season. Metcalf hasn't been good this season — he's tied for the position lead with three drops — but he was open for a potential second score last week that Aaron Rodgers overthrew, and we're still looking at the clear No. 1 option of a passing offense that finally looked good in Week 3. I'm continuing to treat Metcalf as a boom-or-bust WR3 and believe the former outcome should be on the way sooner than later.
- WR34: Malik Washington (at MIN). Washington had a 14-yard TD reception nullified on an illegal shift last week and was open for a 43-yard TD that was unfortunately overthrown. The Dolphins have lined up Washington in the backfield on 13 snaps this season — he looks like a good candidate to be the engine of this offense while De'Von Achane is sidelined (a sentence I did NOT think I'd be typing in 2026). This matchup is BRUTAL, but Washington's ability to get funneled low-aDOT targets makes him the offense's (only) candidate worth starting this week.
- WR35: Jakobi Meyers (at CIN). Has emerged as the clear No. 2 pass-game option in this ascending Trevor Lawrence-Liam Coen passing attack and always seems to be on the other end of some of T-Law's best throws. That only produced three total targets in Weeks 1-2, but Meyer's 7-64-1 receiving line in Week 3 demonstrated that there's some fantasy upside worth chasing. Meyers (30% slot rate) is more likely to see ace Bengals CB DJ Turner than Parker Washington (46%), but the answer to which Jags receiver might just be "yes" in a matchup featuring the week's highest game total.
Key question: Which teams have had the least amount of catchable deep targets this season?
Great question (thanks!). Per Fantasy Points, the top-5 offenses in catchable deep target rate this season have been:
- Jets (90%)
- Bengals (88%)
- Vikings (80%)
- Lions (80%)
- Saints (77%)
Shoutout to Geno Smith and Tyler Shough in particular for joining Joe Burrow and Jared Goff atop this list, while Kyler Murray (4/6 catchable deep passes on the season) did at least have a moment or two in his otherwise disastrous Vikings debut.
As for the worst offenses in throwing catchable deep balls:
- Rams (39%)
- Buccaneers (36%)
- Packers (33%)
- Raiders (33%)
- Titans (33%)
Surprised to see Matthew Stafford on here? Same, but then again, we did see Davante Adams get by Patrick Surtain not once but twice via silky smooth double-moves that … were both badly overthrown. It's also not great to see Jordan Love down here, though in his defense he's been pressured on 58 percent of those dropbacks (Stafford is only at 39%).
Tier 5: There's at Least One Pretty Glaring Red Flag
- WR36: Tre Tucker (vs. KC). Came back to earth a bit in Week 3 (4-43-0) after the big-time Week 2 boom (5-119-1). This makes sense: Brock Bowers is the engine of this passing game. But hey, Kirk Cousins is tied for the league lead in touchdown passes, and this profiles as the sort of trailing game script that could push Cousins to throw the ball more than usual. Note that Tucker easily leads the Raiders in number of routes to come in motion (13, nobody else is over 8); he's clearly the WR that Klint Kubiak is trying to get the football to.
- WR37: Kalif Raymond (vs. NYJ). Is this too low? Probably! Raymond is the PPR WR12 this season! At some point this offense will give up on the gimmick and devote more of those targets to their big-three pass-catchers … I think … but hey, credit to the 32-year-old veteran for posting 8-84-0, 5-40-0 and 6-90-1 receiving lines to start the season!
- WR38: Emeka Egbuka (vs. GB). I'll consider moving Egbuka up in the ranks if we find out undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels isn't a complete disaster and/or the 2025 first-round pick scores 12 PPR points in a game again. I don't feel like that's asking much, but then again, Egbuka has reached that mark in just one of his last 15 games. Not great! Side note: Daniels stated, "You can't be a thermometer, you have to be the thermostat." What a bar!
- WR39: Keenan Allen (at WSH in London). It'd be a very Keenan Allen thing for Keenan Allen to out-produce Josh Downs in this smash spot. And hey, Keenan is right there with Downs in terms of targets (24 vs. 20 in favor of Downs) and even PPR points (32.6 vs. 29). It sounds like a suspension could be coming at some point, but the 34-year-old veteran profiles as a borderline WR3 until that happens.
- WR40: Kayshon Boutte (vs. DAL). This assumes Nico Collins (hamstring) and Xavier Hutchinson (shoulder) are sidelined ahead of this great matchup. It's been a slow start for Boutte in Houston (6-79-0), and other guys like Jared "Bruce" Wayne and Jaylin Noel will also be involved. Still, the Cowboys' already bad defense is dealing with quite a few injuries and, if anything, is stronger at the line of scrimmage than in the secondary. This is the week! 80 yards and a TD! Book it!
- WR41: Rome Odunze (vs. NYJ). Straight up behind Kalif Raymond. What a time to be alive. But can we really argue with it? Odunze is being used as a glorified field-stretcher, a role that really doesn't seem likely to produce much high-end volume while Caleb Williams (hamstring) is sidelined. Credit to the Jets for joining the Seahawks and Raiders as the only defenses that have allowed just *one* completion on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield this season.
- WR42: Dontayvion Wicks (vs. LAR). Routes got back to 90 percent in Week 3 after some weird Week 2 usage. The bigger problem is facing off with a Rams secondary that has yet to allow more than 50 yards to a wide receiver this season.
- WR43: Rashod Bateman (vs. TEN). Good news: Bateman's yards per target numbers (9.6) are back to 2024 levels (10.5) as opposed to what we saw in 2025 (5.9). Bad news: Zay Flowers is soaking up more targets than ever, rendering Bateman as nothing more than a boom-or-bust WR4.
- WR44: Khalil Shakir (vs. NE). Went 6-45-0 and 5-65-0 against this defense last season, but now Christian Gonzalez figures to be focusing most of his attention on DJ Moore. While Shakir has yet to clear 50 yards or find the end zone this season, the 26-year-old YAC-ster is still very much a good football player inside a great offense. Better days are ahead.
- WR45: Denzel Boston (vs. PIT on TNF). 52 wide receivers have at least 15 targets this season. Denzel Boston ranks second in yards per target (13) behind only Drake London! Turns out that lazy pre-draft comp was pretty spot on! Oh yeah, and Concepcion ranks … 50th (4). Sad! Of course, the team's first-round rookie is being fed gadgety looks much closer to the line of scrimmage; just realize the going has been ROUGH so far. I don't expect much from this Deshaun Watson-led passing attack against T.J. Watt and company and neither is Vegas: Cleveland is implied to score just 18 points on Thursday night — tied for third lowest in Week 4.
- WR46: KC Concepcion (vs. PIT on TNF).
- WR47: Mack Hollins (at BUF). Has the team's $68 million receiver beat in targets (16 vs. 11), receptions (12 vs. 6) and yards (156 vs. 145) this season. Does that mean much in an offense with *one* passing touchdown? Nope, but it's enough for me to rank Hollins over Romeo Doubs!
Key question: Which defenses have played an outlier amount of man coverage?
This is important because historically wide receivers see a lot more targets against man than zone, which makes sense! Zone allows safeties and linebackers to gain depth and keep everything in front of them — making it more likely for running backs and tight ends to find underneath areas in the field — while wide receivers get to feast when given the opportunity to work one-on-one with their defender.
Anyway, the following seven defenses have utilized man coverage on more than a quarter of their defensive snaps this season:
- Browns (42%). Unfortunately for DK Metcalf, his defender figures to mostly be stud CB Denzel Ward.
- Bears (38%). Wheels up for Garrett Wilson ESPECIALLY if Adonai Mitchell (finger) remains sidelined.
- Colts (30%). Wheels up for Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs! Note that Diggs (6 targets) has been the preferred target against man coverage over McLaurin (3) this season.
- Bengals (29%). Happy Parker Washington boom week!
- Patriots (29%). Similar to Metcalf: It's unfortunate for DJ Moore that he'll have to deal with stud cornerback Christian Gonzalez in man coverage.
- Broncos (28%). Noticing a trend on defenses that have a stud corner being more willing than others to play a lot of man coverage? Here's to hoping Mike Evans (ribs) is healthy enough to give Pat Surtain a real challenge.
- Buccaneers (28%). *IF* the Packers can protect Love (Tampa Bay does rank 31st in pressure rate), it could be a BIG Sunday for Christian Watson and Matthew Golden. Note that Watson (6 targets) and Golden (5) have been used pretty evenly against man coverage.
Tier 6: Don't Start Them Even If there's a Fire
- WR48: Xavier Worthy (at LV). The fastest player alive ranks last in yards per reception (6.3) among 47 wide receivers with 10-plus receptions this season.
- WR49: Romeo Doubs (at BUF). Leading the league in yards per reception (24.2) and averaging a gaudy 13.2 yards per target; the problem is most of the production has come off-script, and Drake Maye doesn't seem overly interested in feeding him the ball (11 targets in 3 weeks).
- WR50: Carnell Tate (at BAL). Put some fun routes on tape last week and it didn't matter because Cam Ward looks a lot like the worst QB in football. Side note: Why does Brian Daboll keep getting new jobs?
- WR51: Wan'Dale Robinson (at BAL). Went 7-57-1 in his revenge game special against the Giants; we'll consider moving him up the ranks should this offense look even somewhat better this week (unlikely).
- WR52: Pat Bryant (at SF). Sutton has more targets (16 vs. 9) than Bryant, yet it's the second-year talent who leads the way in yards (86 vs. 82). It's tough to expect big-time numbers from either as long as they continue to split work as clear secondary options behind Jaylen Waddle, but Bryant could become an interesting second-half riser should the Broncos decide Sutton might be worth trading.
- WR53: Courtland Sutton (at SF).
- WR54: Michael Pittman (at CLE on TNF). 74 scoreless yards in two games this season; Aaron Rodgers has (surprisingly) been more willing to throw downfield than he was last year, leading to far more targets for DK Metcalf (8 per game) and Roman Wilson (6) compared to Pittman (4).
- WR55: Chris Godwin Jr. (vs. GB). Had an 85-yard TD taken off the board on a SWEET throw from Baker Mayfield … who is now out of the picture. Sad!
- WR56: Tre' Harris (at SEA). Certainly seems to have taken over as the No. 2 option ahead of Quentin Johnston … but what's that really worth inside this brutal offense that now has a nightmare matchup against the Seahawks?
- WR57: Quentin Johnston (at SEA).
- WR58: Keon Coleman (vs. NE). Averaging 11.2 yards per target this season! But still in a part-time role. But hey, the 23-year-old actually looks like an NFL receiver! Progress over perfection!
- WR59: Marvin Harrison Jr. (at NYG). Let's trade Marvin Harrison Jr. to the Las Vegas Raiders and see what happens.
- WR60: Brian Thomas Jr. (at CIN). Let's trade Brian Thomas Jr. to the Los Angeles Rams and see what happens.
