Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor finished as the RB1 and RB2 last year, respectively. This year, it looks like they're neck-and-neck again. According to RotoWire's fantasy football ADP tool, CMC is going as the RB3 on average while Taylor checks in at RB4.
Which RB should you draft this year? I'll break down the debate below.
Who Should I Draft: Christian McCaffrey vs Jonathan Taylor
Here's a data-driven breakdown about the Christian McCaffrey vs Jonathan Taylor ADP debate:
Christian McCaffrey Fantasy Outlook: RB3
Christian McCaffrey is the Ricky Bobby of fantasy football. If he ain't first, he's last. CMC finished each of the past eight seasons in one of two ways: as a top-two RB, or rehabbing an injury. There's no middle ground. If you spend a first-round pick on him, you either drafted a league winner, or your season is over by Week 6.
This is normally where I'd dive into the analytics and give you my take on CMC at ADP. But I don't think any of that is relevant with a player like him.
If you're confident CMC holds up over an 18-game season, sprint to the podium and draft him. But if you want a little more certainty from your first-round pick, I'd look elsewhere.
Jonathan Taylor Fantasy Outlook: RB4
Jonathan Taylor's ceiling is tied to Daniel Jones' health, like it or not. From Week 1-13, Taylor was the RB1 on a per-game basis, averaging a whopping 23.1 PPG in half PPR formats. He was the focal point of one of the best offenses in football. His Colts were averaging 29.8 PPG, which would've been the second-best mark in the league. Then, Daniel Jones tore his Achilles.
Taylor was still productive, but he took a giant step back once Jones went down. The 106.8 rushing yards per game he averaged over his first 12 outings fell to 60.6 over his last five. His efficiency cratered, too. Taylor averaged 3.1 yards per carry during that stretch – a far cry from the stellar 5.7 YPC he opened the year with.
Overall, the 27-year-old back was the RB19 over the final five weeks of the season.
Christian McCaffrey vs Jonathan Taylor: The Verdict
Both of these RBs have legit league-winning upside. But both come with more red flags than you'd expect from a top-five RB. This comes down to which risk you're more comfortable taking.
I'm more concerned about Jonathan Taylor and the Colts in general. I don't believe Indianapolis' offense will be the juggernaut they were during the first 12 weeks of the season. And we saw the impact that unit's decline had on Taylor's production.
Sure, CMC is an injury risk. But Taylor is not some paragon of durability – he's actually missed more games over the last four seasons (16) than CMC (13). And if McCaffrey is healthy, he's essentially locked into a top-three season, regardless of what happens around him.
Taylor, on the other hand, needs good health and elite play from Daniel Jones to recapture the magic he had at the start of last season.
Jonathan Taylor or Christian McCaffrey: PPR Scoring
In a vacuum, I'd take CMC over JT. He's ahead of him in RotoWire's 2026 fantasy football rankings, and the gap widens in PPR formats. Last season, McCaffrey turned 129 targets into 102 receptions for 924 yards. Taylor, by comparison, turned 55 targets into 46 receptions for 378.
The more your format rewards receptions, the more CMC separates from the pack.
