This is one of the scariest pick in the third round of fantasy football drafts, and I mean that as a compliment to both guys. Rice goes at 25.7 in half-PPR ADP, Olave at 31, the projections land a point apart, and they're even projected for the identical number of targets - 126 each. What separates them is a 61-point gap in floor projection, the widest I've seen in any comparison I've run this summer, and everything that gap represents.
Half-PPR throughout, as always. The scoring section at the bottom matters more than usual here, so don't skip it.
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Rashee Rice Fantasy Outlook: WR11
The per-game version of Rice is not a debate. Across the 12 games he's managed over the past two seasons, he averaged 17.9 PPR points and nearly nine targets - that's not 'good when healthy,' that's a top-five receiver's stat line wearing caution tape. When Rice plays, he's a WR1. Full stop.
The tape is the problem: an LCL tear in 2024, then a suspension and a concussion in 2025. Twelve games in two years. His floor projection - 90.6, barely more than half of Olave's - isn't a knock on his talent; it's the model pricing in the very real chance we get another eight-game season.
So he's the Nabers pick of this range: elite per-game production, discounted for availability. And I keep making that kind of pick, because the third round is where I hunt for
This is one of the scariest pick in the third round of fantasy football drafts, and I mean that as a compliment to both guys. Rice goes at 25.7 in half-PPR ADP, Olave at 31, the projections land a point apart, and they're even projected for the identical number of targets - 126 each. What separates them is a 61-point gap in floor projection, the widest I've seen in any comparison I've run this summer, and everything that gap represents.
Half-PPR throughout, as always. The scoring section at the bottom matters more than usual here, so don't skip it.
Get the RotoWire Fantasy Football Draft Kit
Rashee Rice Fantasy Outlook: WR11
The per-game version of Rice is not a debate. Across the 12 games he's managed over the past two seasons, he averaged 17.9 PPR points and nearly nine targets - that's not 'good when healthy,' that's a top-five receiver's stat line wearing caution tape. When Rice plays, he's a WR1. Full stop.
The tape is the problem: an LCL tear in 2024, then a suspension and a concussion in 2025. Twelve games in two years. His floor projection - 90.6, barely more than half of Olave's - isn't a knock on his talent; it's the model pricing in the very real chance we get another eight-game season.
So he's the Nabers pick of this range: elite per-game production, discounted for availability. And I keep making that kind of pick, because the third round is where I hunt for top-five outcomes, not top-twenty ones.
Bottom Line: A legitimate WR1 on a per-game basis - 17.9 PPR points a game when active - priced down for games he might not play. Pay the risk, take the ceiling.
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Chris Olave Fantasy Outlook: WR14
If you'd told Olave's story to someone two years ago, they wouldn't have believed it. After repeated trips to concussion protocol had people openly wondering about his future, he turned in the feel-good career year of 2025: nearly a full season - he missed only Week 18, and for a blood clot in his lung, not his head - and the best football of his life. He was also just rewarded with a massive extension that will keep him locked in as the Saints WR1 for the foreseeable future.
The fantasy profile is the mirror image of Rice's: identical targets, one point less in projection, and a floor 61 points higher. He even out-gains Rice in projected yardage with matching touchdowns. This is what a stable third-round receiver looks like - the guy who posts his eleven half-PPR points every week while your risky picks decide your season one way or the other.
The honest asterisk: his margin for error on head injuries stays thinner than most players', and he was limited at OTAs while the blood clot got treated. 'Safe' is relative in this comparison - it's just a lot more relative for Rice.
Bottom Line: Nearly the same projection with a 61-point sturdier floor. The grown-up pick, four spots cheaper.
Fantasy Football Rankings: Latest Expert Concensus
Rashee Rice vs Chris Olave: The Verdict
For me, deciding between Olave vs Rice comes down to floor projections. If you go straight to the floor row - it's the entire debate in one line.
The tool leans Rice on ceiling and the market agrees, and so do I - Rice is my pick, same logic I used with Malik Nabers: when the downside is already priced into the ADP and the upside isn't, take the upside. Rice's per-game production is the single most valuable trait anywhere in this comparison, and nothing in Olave's profile can match it.
But I'll be straight with you about roster construction: this pick only works if you treat Rice like the volatile asset he is. Pair him with stable receivers, not other lottery tickets - if your second-rounder was already a risk, Olave is the better fit and I'd genuinely make that swap. A roster full of 90-point floors is how you end up picking third in next year's draft order.
What flips me: any whiff of suspension carryover or a soft-tissue setback in camp. Rice's whole case is games played. The moment that wobbles, Olave's 61 points of floor stop being boring and start being the pick.
- Best Per-Game Player: Rashee Rice - 17.9 PPR points a game across his last 12
- Best Floor: Chris Olave - by 61 points, the biggest gap I've run this summer
- Best Comeback Story: Chris Olave
- Biggest Availability Risk: Rashee Rice - 12 games in two seasons
- My Pick: Rashee Rice, with stable receivers around him and no additional suspension
Rashee Rice or Chris Olave PPR Scoring
Rice projects for 13 more catches on the same 126 targets, so full PPR widens his edge and makes the pick more comfortable. Standard scoring erases the catch advantage entirely - touchdowns are dead even at seven, and Olave's ahead on yards - turning this into a true toss-up.
So here's my format-honest answer: Rice in full and half PPR. In standard leagues I flip to Olave, because if the receptions don't pay, the only thing Rice sells at a premium is the risk.
