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Irreverent 150 - Updated: Gambling on Upside

Chris Liss

Chris Liss is RotoWire's Managing Editor and Host of RotoWIre Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius XM radio.

Here are my latest rankings for a standard league (1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, 1-TE, 1-K, 1-D; 3/6 TDs, 20/10 yardage) as of September 3. Keep in mind these are not the same as the site's because they ignore ADP, conventional wisdom, consensus and safety. This is how I'd want to draft if I don't care what anyone else on the planet thinks (Which is usually the best policy in practice).

Note also that these rankings are a one-time snapshot, and not continually updated like the rest of the ones on the site.

For a more basic and constantly updated set of rankings, check out our customized scoring systems: custom straight draft rankings, Dollar values for auctions and/or draft software.

Rank Player Pos Team Comment
1 Adrian Peterson RB MIN Quietly caught 43 passes and scored 18 TDs; needs to hold onto the rock
2 Michael Turner RB ATL NFL's prototype power runner, plus long speed, but doesn't catch passes
3 Chris Johnson RB TEN Explosive big-play machine set all-time mark with 2,509 yards from scrimmage
4 Ray Rice RB BAL 78 receptions, 2041 yards from scrimmage; not much goal-line work, though
5 Randy Moss WR NE Aging all-time great still among the elite
6 Andre Johnson WR HOU Size/speed monster heavily targeted in top-notch passing attack; underused near goal line
7 Ryan Mathews RB SD Rookie steps into ideal situation - top-notch offense, RB-friendly coach
8 Maurice Jones-Drew RB JAC Monster when healthy; concerned about his knee
9 Calvin Johnson WR DET Injuries and triple teams derailed season; sky's still the limit for freak among freaks
10 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARZ Talented enough to thrive even without Kurt Warner
11 Rashard Mendenhall RB PIT Power back with speed and good hands should have bigger role
12 Steven Jackson RB STL Power runner with burst and good hands, but injury history and poor offense
13 Brandon Marshall WR MIA Huge wideout will be heavily targeted in Miami - recovering from hip surgery, though
14 Frank Gore RB SF All-purpose workhorse in improving offense; needs to stay healthy
15 Miles Austin WR DAL NFL's best fantasy receiver over final 12 weeks
16 DeAngelo Williams RB CAR Elite talent would be top five were it not for Jonathan Stewart
17 Greg Jennings WR GB Reliable home-run threat for Aaron Rogers
18 Steve Smith WR CAR Rare elite receiver under six feet, had excellent chemistry with Matt Moore
19 Jamaal Charles RB KC Chris Johnson light in season's second half; Thomas Jones will cut into workload
20 Tom Brady QB NE Another year removed from knee surgery, should be even sharper in 2010
21 Drew Brees QB NO Plays in the ideal system and ideal environment; highest floor among QBs
22 Aaron Rodgers QB GB Rushing ability, huge arm give Rodgers highest ceiling among QBs
23 Roddy White WR ATL Opportunity increased last year, but efficiency declined
24 Reggie Wayne WR IND Polished pro is still Peyton's favorite target, even in red zone. Lacks explosiveness
25 Anquan Boldin WR BAL Best per game receiving avg. (79.2) of all time. Now Joe Flacco's No. 1 target
26 Peyton Manning QB IND Safest pick on the board and has more weapons than in years past
27 Shonn Greene RB NYJ Speedy power back broke out during playoffs. Runs behind elite offensive line
28 Chris Wells RB ARZ Showed power and speed down the stretch; needs to stay healthy
29 Cedric Benson RB CIN Workhorse back should tote the rock another 300 times
30 Ryan Grant RB GB Reliable workhorse in elite offense
31 Pierre Thomas RB NO Per-play star in ideal system, but was underused in 2009
32 Tony Romo QB DAL Dallas loaded with weapons. Romo knows how to make good use of them
33 Michael Crabtree WR SF Top prospect could take leap to stardom in Year 2
34 Marques Colston WR NO Top target in Saints passing offense, but has to share the wealth
35 DeSean Jackson WR PHI 10 catches of 40-yards plus last year will be hard to repeat
36 Antonio Gates TE SD Red-zone monster delivers every year
37 Arian Foster RB HOU Should open the year as the starter
38 Ahmad Bradshaw RB NYG Won the starting job in camp
39 Matt Forte RB CHI Healthier now, but Chester Taylor looms as good fit in Martz' scheme
40 Jahvid Best RB DET Dynamic rookie back should start for improving offense; needs to prove durability
41 LeSean McCoy RB PHI Feature back in strong offense; could yield carries at the goal line
42 Percy Harvin WR MIN Gets huge bump with Sidney Rice out
43 Vernon Davis TE SF Big-time breakout for league's most athletic tight end
44 Dallas Clark TE IND 100 catches, 1,106 yards and 10 TDs from tight end spot last year
45 Jermichael Finley TE GB Should be a monster in Green Bay's offense if he can stay healthy
46 Jay Cutler QB CHI Mike Martz's arrival removes the ceiling on elite talent; must cut down on picks
47 Matt Schaub QB HOU 4,770 passing yards last year was sixth-highest total ever
48 Jonathan Stewart RB CAR Bruising power back would be top-5 but for DeAngelo Williams
49 Philip Rivers QB SD Would be top-3 QB but for Norv Turner's run-first philosophy
50 Robert Meachem WR NO Better than Colston during season's second half
51 Mike Sims-Walker WR JAC Top target on a team that's likely to throw more, thanks to poor defense
52 Steven Smith WR NYG First-rate possession receiver has the trust of Eli Manning
53 Hakeem Nicks WR NYG Big-play receiver showed explosion as a rookie
54 Dwayne Bowe WR KC 2009 was a lost year, but still a good red-zone threat and team's likely No. 1 target
55 Joseph Addai RB IND Nothing special, but well-rounded and great fit for Colts offense
56 Johnny Knox WR CHI Fastest player on the Bears - slated to start opposite Hester at press time
57 Knowshon Moreno RB DEN Downgraded due to hamstring injury; should be ready near start of the season
58 Pierre Garcon WR IND Peyton Manning's big-play receiver
59 Ronnie Brown RB MIA Almost always produces when healthy; rarely healthy for long
60 Chad Ochocinco WR CIN No longer an elite receiver and few red-zone looks, but still useful
61 Jerome Harrison RB CLE Exploded down the stretch; will battle Hardesty for carries
62 C.J. Spiller RB BUF Explosive game breaker, but in bad environment and sharing touches with Jackson/Lynch
63 Marion Barber RB DAL Will back up injury prone Felix Jones and get goal-line work
64 Justin Forsett RB SEA Early favorite to start with LenDale White cut, and Leon Washington recovering
65 Felix Jones RB DAL Upside is off the charts, but can he hold up under anything close to full load?
66 Jeremy Maclin WR PHI Playmaking deep threat opposite DeSean Jackson
67 Lee Evans WR BUF Only game in town again now that T.O. is gone
68 Brent Celek TE PHI Heavily targeted, polished receiver in pass-first offense with no other red-zone threat
69 Dez Bryant WR DAL Superstar talent with some personal baggage lands in good passing environment
70 Terrell Owens WR CIN Still beat defenses deep last year with five catches of 40-plus
71 Darren McFadden RB OAK Will get a shot to start early on
72 Reggie Bush RB NO Will be involved, but Pierre Thomas is the team's star back
73 Devin Aromashodu WR CHI Jay Cutler's big-play receiver down the stretch; team's No. 3 option at press time
74 Malcom Floyd WR SD San Diego's likely No. 1
75 Kellen Winslow TE TB Only game in town; produced even in terrible conditions last year
76 Jason Witten TE DAL One of many options, but still heavily targeted and trusted by Tony Romo
77 Hines Ward WR PIT Turned back the clock last two years, but without Big Ben for at least four games
78 Braylon Edwards WR NYJ No problem getting open deep; just needs to hold onto the ball
79 Santana Moss WR WAS Finally gets to play with an above-average quarterback
80 Kenny Britt WR TEN Big target should be Titans' No. 1 receiver
81 Donald Driver WR GB Turned 35 this past winter, but can still get down the field
82 Donald Brown RB IND Joseph Addai's backup should see significant work
83 Donovan McNabb QB WAS Leaves pass-happy system, but Mike Shanahan is no slouch for offense, either
84 Clinton Portis RB WAS One-time star has lots of miles and competition for carries
85 Mike Wallace WR PIT Deep threat will start opposite Hines Ward
86 Michael Bush RB OAK Will likely miss a few games
87 Ricky Williams RB MIA 33-year old back will share carries with injury prone Ronnie Brown
88 Mike Williams WR TB Locked down the No. 1 receiver job in Tampa
89 T.J. Houshmandzadeh WR SEA Possession receiver on a team in transition
90 Julian Edelman WR NE Wes Welker-lite with less quickness, but more strength; big role early as slot man
91 Devin Hester WR CHI Quick, speedy receiver a good fit for Mike Martz' offense
92 Cadillac Williams RB TB Miraculously returned after multiple knee surgeries; dealing with subpar offense
93 Brandon Jacobs RB NYG Lost starting job to Bradshaw; could still see goal-line carries
94 Eli Manning QB NYG Coming off career year, and developing wide
95 Chris Chambers WR KC Big second half in Kansas City, but Dwayne Bowe was out
96 Sidney Rice WR MIN Worth a gamble if you have a deep bench
97 Steve Slaton RB HOU Dealing with toe injury; lost job to Foster for now
98 Matthew Stafford QB DET High-reward pick you can always drop if he doesn't pan out
99 Tony Gonzalez TE ATL Still getting it done at age 34
100 Zach Miller TE OAK Reliable producer in terrible environment, but gets a QB upgrade
101 Tim Hightower RB ARZ Will split carries with superior Beanie Wells; caught 63 passes last year
102 Joe Flacco QB BAL Finally has a legit No. 1 receiver to go along with Derrick Mason and Ray Rice
103 Kevin Kolb QB PHI Showed signs last year; has keys to pass-happy, playmaker-rich offense
104 Santonio Holmes WR NYJ Suspended four games, but could be Jets' No. 1 target upon return
105 Jabar Gaffney WR DEN Huge game in Week 17 last year; in the running for No. 1 Denver receiver
106 Bernard Berrian WR MIN Some upside with Sidney Rice out
107 Vincent Jackson WR SD Why not roll the dice at this point? Suspended for three games in any event
108 Chester Taylor RB CHI Good fit for Martz' offense; will push Matt Forte for carries
109 Mohamed Massaquoi WR CLE Browns No. 1 receiver if such a thing could be said to exist
110 Fred Jackson RB BUF Will split work with C.J. Spiller and possibly Marshawn Lynch; hand injury ends camp
111 Tashard Choice RB DAL Will back up the injury-prone Felix Jones and Marion Barber
112 Steve Breaston WR ARZ Slated to start opposite Larry Fitzgerald with Boldin gone
113 Devin Thomas WR WAS Has all the physical tools; finally has a good quarterback, too
114 Jacoby Jones WR HOU Big-play threat should push Kevin Walter for targets
115 Matt Ryan QB ATL Could take the leap in Year 3, but plays for run-first team
116 Visanthe Shiancoe TE MIN Red-zone specialist averaged nine TD past two years
117 Heath Miller TE PIT Quietly had 76 catches for 789 yards and six scores
118 Thomas Jones RB KC Should see goal-line work at the very least in KC
119 Wes Welker WR NE Probably not 100 percent for first half of the season
120 John Carlson TE SEA Quality pass-catching TE could see more work under new regime
121 Greg Olsen TE CHI Big-time upside, but Martz didn't typically use the TE in season's past
122 Derrick Mason WR BAL Relegated to No. 2 with Anquan Boldin in town
123 Owen Daniels TE HOU Was top-3 TE before tearing ACL in Week 8; should be ready for the season
124 Laurence Maroney RB NE Our best guess for the top option in New England's murky backfield
125 Jerricho Cotchery WR NYJ Reliable receiver will remain in the mix
126 Austin Collie WR IND 17 catches, 241 yards, 2 TD in 2009 playoffs - should have a significant role
127 Peyton Hillis RB CLE Could see a significant role with Montario Hardesty out
128 Brett Favre QB MIN Likely to return after ankle surgery; will turn 41 this fall
129 Kareem Huggins RB TB Cadillac Williams' backup
130 Marshawn Lynch RB BUF No. 3 back in Buffalo, could be dealt
131 Fred Taylor RB NE Could get first crack at feature back role
132 Larry Johnson RB WAS Could get first crack if Clinton Portis gets hurt
133 Legedu Naanee WR SD If Vincent Jackson is really out 10 weeks, Naanee likely starts opposite Floyd
134 Willis McGahee RB BAL Goal-line back on strong offense, but second fiddle to Ray Rice
135 Darren Sproles RB SD Change of pace back will spell Ryan Mathews on occasion
136 Anthony Gonzalez WR IND Speedy receiver will be in the mix if healthy
137 Laurent Robinson WR STL Rams No. 1 receiver by default
138 James Jones WR GB In the mix at WR behind Jennings and Driver
139 Mario Manningham WR NYG Showed playmaking ability, but lapses in focus and Nicks' emergence make him NY's No. 3
140 Ryan Torain RB WAS A Shanahan draft choice - could have a big role if Portis goes down
141 Kevin Walter WR HOU Will compete with Jacoby Jones for targets leftover by Andre Johnson
142 Darrius Heyward-Bey WR OAK Reach of 2009 draft; worked hard during offseason, looks good in camp
143 Mike Williams WR SEA Impressive camp for former top-10 pick
144 Eddie Royal WR DEN One-time rookie phenom will compete for starting WR role
145 Greg Camarillo WR MIN In the mix for targets
146 Josh Cribbs WR CLE All-time great returner could see bigger role as runner/receiver in offense
147 Brandon Jackson RB GB Ryan Grant insurance
148 Derrick Ward RB FA Could sign with the Texans
149 Roy Williams WR DAL An afterthought with the Dez Bryant pick, but still an effective red-zone target
150 Demaryius Thomas WR DEN Foot injury puts Week 1 in question