Irreverent 150 - Updated: Gambling on Upside

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Updated on September 3, 2010 5:17PM EST

Here are my latest rankings for a standard league (1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, 1-TE, 1-K, 1-D; 3/6 TDs, 20/10 yardage) as of September 3. Keep in mind these are not the same as the site's because they ignore ADP, conventional wisdom, consensus and safety. This is how I'd want to draft if I don't care what anyone else on the planet thinks (Which is usually the best policy in practice).

Note also that these rankings are a one-time snapshot, and not continually updated like the rest of the ones on the site.

For a more basic and constantly updated set of rankings, check out our customized scoring systems: custom straight draft rankings, Dollar values for auctions and/or draft software.

Rank	Player	Pos	Team	Comment
1	Adrian Peterson	RB	MIN	Quietly caught 43 passes and scored 18 TDs; needs to hold onto the rock
2	Michael Turner	RB	ATL	NFL's prototype power runner, plus long speed, but doesn't catch passes
3	Chris Johnson	RB	TEN	Explosive big-play machine set all-time mark with 2,509 yards from scrimmage
4	Ray Rice	RB	BAL	78 receptions, 2041 yards from scrimmage; not much goal-line work, though
5	Randy Moss	WR	NE	Aging all-time great still among the elite
6	Andre Johnson	WR	HOU	Size/speed monster heavily targeted in top-notch passing attack; underused near goal line
7	Ryan Mathews	RB	SD	Rookie steps into ideal situation - top-notch offense, RB-friendly coach
8	Maurice Jones-Drew	RB	JAC	Monster when healthy; concerned about his knee
9	Calvin

Note also that these rankings are a one-time snapshot, and not continually updated like the rest of the ones on the site.

For a more basic and constantly updated set of rankings, check out our customized scoring systems: custom straight draft rankings, Dollar values for auctions and/or draft software.

Rank	Player	Pos	Team	Comment
1	Adrian Peterson	RB	MIN	Quietly caught 43 passes and scored 18 TDs; needs to hold onto the rock
2	Michael Turner	RB	ATL	NFL's prototype power runner, plus long speed, but doesn't catch passes
3	Chris Johnson	RB	TEN	Explosive big-play machine set all-time mark with 2,509 yards from scrimmage
4	Ray Rice	RB	BAL	78 receptions, 2041 yards from scrimmage; not much goal-line work, though
5	Randy Moss	WR	NE	Aging all-time great still among the elite
6	Andre Johnson	WR	HOU	Size/speed monster heavily targeted in top-notch passing attack; underused near goal line
7	Ryan Mathews	RB	SD	Rookie steps into ideal situation - top-notch offense, RB-friendly coach
8	Maurice Jones-Drew	RB	JAC	Monster when healthy; concerned about his knee
9	Calvin Johnson	WR	DET	Injuries and triple teams derailed season; sky's still the limit for freak among freaks
10	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	ARZ	Talented enough to thrive even without Kurt Warner
11	Rashard Mendenhall	RB	PIT	Power back with speed and good hands should have bigger role
12	Steven Jackson	RB	STL	Power runner with burst and good hands, but injury history and poor offense
13	Brandon Marshall	WR	MIA	Huge wideout will be heavily targeted in Miami - recovering from hip surgery, though
14	Frank Gore	RB	SF	All-purpose workhorse in improving offense; needs to stay healthy
15	Miles Austin	WR	DAL	NFL's best fantasy receiver over final 12 weeks
16	DeAngelo Williams	RB	CAR	Elite talent would be top five were it not for Jonathan Stewart
17	Greg Jennings	WR	GB	Reliable home-run threat for Aaron Rogers
18	Steve Smith	WR	CAR	Rare elite receiver under six feet, had excellent chemistry with Matt Moore
19	Jamaal Charles	RB	KC	Chris Johnson light in season's second half; Thomas Jones will cut into workload
20	Tom Brady	QB	NE	Another year removed from knee surgery, should be even sharper in 2010
21	Drew Brees	QB	NO	Plays in the ideal system and ideal environment; highest floor among QBs
22	Aaron Rodgers	QB	GB	Rushing ability, huge arm give Rodgers highest ceiling among QBs
23	Roddy White	WR	ATL	Opportunity increased last year, but efficiency declined
24	Reggie Wayne	WR	IND	Polished pro is still Peyton's favorite target, even in red zone. Lacks explosiveness
25	Anquan Boldin	WR	BAL	Best per game receiving avg. (79.2) of all time. Now Joe Flacco's No. 1 target
26	Peyton Manning	QB	IND	Safest pick on the board and has more weapons than in years past
27	Shonn Greene	RB	NYJ	Speedy power back broke out during playoffs. Runs behind elite offensive line
28	Chris Wells	RB	ARZ	Showed power and speed down the stretch; needs to stay healthy
29	Cedric Benson	RB	CIN	Workhorse back should tote the rock another 300 times
30	Ryan Grant	RB	GB	Reliable workhorse in elite offense
31	Pierre Thomas	RB	NO	Per-play star in ideal system, but was underused in 2009
32	Tony Romo	QB	DAL	Dallas loaded with weapons. Romo knows how to make good use of them
33	Michael Crabtree	WR	SF	Top prospect could take leap to stardom in Year 2
34	Marques Colston	WR	NO	Top target in Saints passing offense, but has to share the wealth
35	DeSean Jackson	WR	PHI	10 catches of 40-yards plus last year will be hard to repeat
36	Antonio Gates	TE	SD	Red-zone monster delivers every year
37	Arian Foster	RB	HOU	Should open the year as the starter
38	Ahmad Bradshaw	RB	NYG	Won the starting job in camp
39	Matt Forte	RB	CHI	Healthier now, but Chester Taylor looms as good fit in Martz' scheme
40	Jahvid Best	RB	DET	Dynamic rookie back should start for improving offense; needs to prove durability
41	LeSean McCoy	RB	PHI	Feature back in strong offense; could yield carries at the goal line
42	Percy Harvin	WR	MIN	Gets huge bump with Sidney Rice out
43	Vernon Davis	TE	SF	Big-time breakout for league's most athletic tight end
44	Dallas Clark	TE	IND	100 catches, 1,106 yards and 10 TDs from tight end spot last year
45	Jermichael Finley	TE	GB	Should be a monster in Green Bay's offense if he can stay healthy
46	Jay Cutler	QB	CHI	Mike Martz's arrival removes the ceiling on elite talent; must cut down on picks
47	Matt Schaub	QB	HOU	4,770 passing yards last year was sixth-highest total ever
48	Jonathan Stewart	RB	CAR	Bruising power back would be top-5 but for DeAngelo Williams
49	Philip Rivers	QB	SD	Would be top-3 QB but for Norv Turner's run-first philosophy
50	Robert Meachem	WR	NO	Better than Colston during season's second half
51	Mike Sims-Walker	WR	JAC	Top target on a team that's likely to throw more, thanks to poor defense
52	Steven Smith	WR	NYG	First-rate possession receiver has the trust of Eli Manning
53	Hakeem Nicks	WR	NYG	Big-play receiver showed explosion as a rookie
54	Dwayne Bowe	WR	KC	2009 was a lost year, but still a good red-zone threat and team's likely No. 1 target
55	Joseph Addai	RB	IND	Nothing special, but well-rounded and great fit for Colts offense
56	Johnny Knox	WR	CHI	Fastest player on the Bears - slated to start opposite Hester at press time
57	Knowshon Moreno	RB	DEN	Downgraded due to hamstring injury; should be ready near start of the season
58	Pierre Garcon	WR	IND	Peyton Manning's big-play receiver
59	Ronnie Brown	RB	MIA	Almost always produces when healthy; rarely healthy for long
60	Chad Ochocinco	WR	CIN	No longer an elite receiver and few red-zone looks, but still useful
61	Jerome Harrison	RB	CLE	Exploded down the stretch; will battle Hardesty for carries
62	C.J. Spiller	RB	BUF	Explosive game breaker, but in bad environment and sharing touches with Jackson/Lynch
63	Marion Barber	RB	DAL	Will back up injury prone Felix Jones and get goal-line work
64	Justin Forsett	RB	SEA	Early favorite to start with LenDale White cut, and Leon Washington recovering
65	Felix Jones	RB	DAL	Upside is off the charts, but can he hold up under anything close to full load?
66	Jeremy Maclin	WR	PHI	Playmaking deep threat opposite DeSean Jackson
67	Lee Evans	WR	BUF	Only game in town again now that T.O. is gone
68	Brent Celek	TE	PHI	Heavily targeted, polished receiver in pass-first offense with no other red-zone threat
69	Dez Bryant	WR	DAL	Superstar talent with some personal baggage lands in good passing environment
70	Terrell Owens	WR	CIN	Still beat defenses deep last year with five catches of 40-plus
71	Darren McFadden	RB	OAK	Will get a shot to start early on
72	Reggie Bush	RB	NO	Will be involved, but Pierre Thomas is the team's star back
73	Devin Aromashodu	WR	CHI	Jay Cutler's big-play receiver down the stretch; team's No. 3 option at press time
74	Malcom Floyd	WR	SD	San Diego's likely No. 1
75	Kellen Winslow	TE	TB	Only game in town; produced even in terrible conditions last year
76	Jason Witten	TE	DAL	One of many options, but still heavily targeted and trusted by Tony Romo
77	Hines Ward	WR	PIT	Turned back the clock last two years, but without Big Ben for at least four games
78	Braylon Edwards	WR	NYJ	No problem getting open deep; just needs to hold onto the ball
79	Santana Moss	WR	WAS	Finally gets to play with an above-average quarterback
80	Kenny Britt	WR	TEN	Big target should be Titans' No. 1 receiver
81	Donald Driver	WR	GB	Turned 35 this past winter, but can still get down the field
82	Donald Brown	RB	IND	Joseph Addai's backup should see significant work
83	Donovan McNabb	QB	WAS	Leaves pass-happy system, but Mike Shanahan is no slouch for offense, either
84	Clinton Portis	RB	WAS	One-time star has lots of miles and competition for carries
85	Mike Wallace	WR	PIT	Deep threat will start opposite Hines Ward
86	Michael Bush	RB	OAK	Will likely miss a few games
87	Ricky Williams	RB	MIA	33-year old back will share carries with injury prone Ronnie Brown
88	Mike Williams	WR	TB	Locked down the No. 1 receiver job in Tampa
89	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	WR	SEA	Possession receiver on a team in transition
90	Julian Edelman	WR	NE	Wes Welker-lite with less quickness, but more strength; big role early as slot man
91	Devin Hester	WR	CHI	Quick, speedy receiver a good fit for Mike Martz' offense
92	Cadillac Williams	RB	TB	Miraculously returned after multiple knee surgeries; dealing with subpar offense
93	Brandon Jacobs	RB	NYG	Lost starting job to Bradshaw; could still see goal-line carries
94	Eli Manning	QB	NYG	Coming off career year, and developing wide
95	Chris Chambers	WR	KC	Big second half in Kansas City, but Dwayne Bowe was out
96	Sidney Rice	WR	MIN	Worth a gamble if you have a deep bench
97	Steve Slaton	RB	HOU	Dealing with toe injury; lost job to Foster for now
98	Matthew Stafford	QB	DET	High-reward pick you can always drop if he doesn't pan out
99	Tony Gonzalez	TE	ATL	Still getting it done at age 34
100	Zach Miller	TE	OAK	Reliable producer in terrible environment, but gets a QB upgrade
101	Tim Hightower	RB	ARZ	Will split carries with superior Beanie Wells; caught 63 passes last year
102	Joe Flacco	QB	BAL	Finally has a legit No. 1 receiver to go along with Derrick Mason and Ray Rice
103	Kevin Kolb	QB	PHI	Showed signs last year; has keys to pass-happy, playmaker-rich offense
104	Santonio Holmes	WR	NYJ	Suspended four games, but could be Jets' No. 1 target upon return
105	Jabar Gaffney	WR	DEN	Huge game in Week 17 last year; in the running for No. 1 Denver receiver
106	Bernard Berrian	WR	MIN	Some upside with Sidney Rice out
107	Vincent Jackson	WR	SD	Why not roll the dice at this point? Suspended for three games in any event
108	Chester Taylor	RB	CHI	Good fit for Martz' offense; will push Matt Forte for carries
109	Mohamed Massaquoi	WR	CLE	Browns No. 1 receiver if such a thing could be said to exist
110	Fred Jackson	RB	BUF	Will split work with C.J. Spiller and possibly Marshawn Lynch; hand injury ends camp
111	Tashard Choice	RB	DAL	Will back up the injury-prone Felix Jones and Marion Barber
112	Steve Breaston	WR	ARZ	Slated to start opposite Larry Fitzgerald with Boldin gone
113	Devin Thomas	WR	WAS	Has all the physical tools; finally has a good quarterback, too
114	Jacoby Jones	WR	HOU	Big-play threat should push Kevin Walter for targets
115	Matt Ryan	QB	ATL	Could take the leap in Year 3, but plays for run-first team
116	Visanthe Shiancoe	TE	MIN	Red-zone specialist averaged nine TD past two years
117	Heath Miller	TE	PIT	Quietly had 76 catches for 789 yards and six scores
118	Thomas Jones	RB	KC	Should see goal-line work at the very least in KC
119	Wes Welker	WR	NE	Probably not 100 percent for first half of the season
120	John Carlson	TE	SEA	Quality pass-catching TE could see more work under new regime
121	Greg Olsen	TE	CHI	Big-time upside, but Martz didn't typically use the TE in season's past
122	Derrick Mason	WR	BAL	Relegated to No. 2 with Anquan Boldin in town
123	Owen Daniels	TE	HOU	Was top-3 TE before tearing ACL in Week 8; should be ready for the season
124	Laurence Maroney	RB	NE	Our best guess for the top option in New England's murky backfield
125	Jerricho Cotchery	WR	NYJ	Reliable receiver will remain in the mix
126	Austin Collie	WR	IND	17 catches, 241 yards, 2 TD in 2009 playoffs - should have a significant role
127	Peyton Hillis	RB	CLE	Could see a significant role with Montario Hardesty out
128	Brett Favre	QB	MIN	Likely to return after ankle surgery; will turn 41 this fall
129	Kareem Huggins	RB	TB	Cadillac Williams' backup
130	Marshawn Lynch	RB	BUF	No. 3 back in Buffalo, could be dealt
131	Fred Taylor	RB	NE	Could get first crack at feature back role
132	Larry Johnson	RB	WAS	Could get first crack if Clinton Portis gets hurt
133	Legedu Naanee	WR	SD	If Vincent Jackson is really out 10 weeks, Naanee likely starts opposite Floyd
134	Willis McGahee	RB	BAL	Goal-line back on strong offense, but second fiddle to Ray Rice
135	Darren Sproles	RB	SD	Change of pace back will spell Ryan Mathews on occasion
136	Anthony Gonzalez	WR	IND	Speedy receiver will be in the mix if healthy
137	Laurent Robinson	WR	STL	Rams No. 1 receiver by default
138	James Jones	WR	GB	In the mix at WR behind Jennings and Driver
139	Mario Manningham	WR	NYG	Showed playmaking ability, but lapses in focus and Nicks' emergence make him NY's No. 3
140	Ryan Torain	RB	WAS	A Shanahan draft choice - could have a big role if Portis goes down
141	Kevin Walter	WR	HOU	Will compete with Jacoby Jones for targets leftover by Andre Johnson
142	Darrius Heyward-Bey	WR	OAK	Reach of 2009 draft; worked hard during offseason, looks good in camp
143	Mike Williams	WR	SEA	Impressive camp for former top-10 pick
144	Eddie Royal	WR	DEN	One-time rookie phenom will compete for starting WR role
145	Greg Camarillo	WR	MIN	In the mix for targets
146	Josh Cribbs	WR	CLE	All-time great returner could see bigger role as runner/receiver in offense
147	Brandon Jackson	RB	GB	Ryan Grant insurance
148	Derrick Ward	RB	FA	Could sign with the Texans
149	Roy Williams	WR	DAL	An afterthought with the Dez Bryant pick, but still an effective red-zone target
150	Demaryius Thomas	WR	DEN	Foot injury puts Week 1 in question