On Target: More Than Just The Looks

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Updated on December 18, 2012 6:39PM EST

If you're still reading this column right now, then either you've advanced to your fantasy championship or you're still in such disbelief from so many nightmarish Week 15 performances that you're grasping at straws, desperate to find answers to how your team could have collapsed so easily. If it's the former, then congratulations are in order. I'm both happy for and proud of your achievements. If it's the latter, then I don't really know what to say. Mentally, I'm giving you a big ol' hug and telling you that it's going to be all right, but really, I'm in just as much shock as you are right now. Week 15 caused a lot of head-scratching for many of us.

Before we starting pointing fingers and playing the blame game, let's take a look at those who did us right; those who continued to step up their games and produced when we needed it most. We can thank the quarterbacks for always looking our way, but without the talents of some of these wide receivers and tight ends, none of us would be doing any endzone dancing at this time of year.

Top Targets from Week 15

Player Name	Pos	Team	Yards	TD	Pass Att	Targets	Recpt	RZTgts	RZTgt%	Catch %	Target %
Aaron Hernandez	TE	NE	92	1	65	20	10	1	50.0%	50.0%	30.8%
Calvin Johnson	WR	DET	121	0	50	17	10	1	33.3%	58.8%	34.0%
Brandon Lloyd	WR	NE	190	0	65	16	10	0	0.0%	62.5%

Top Targets from Week 15

Player Name	Pos	Team	Yards	TD	Pass Att	Targets	Recpt	RZTgts	RZTgt%	Catch %	Target %
Aaron Hernandez	TE	NE	92	1	65	20	10	1	50.0%	50.0%	30.8%
Calvin Johnson	WR	DET	121	0	50	17	10	1	33.3%	58.8%	34.0%
Brandon Lloyd	WR	NE	190	0	65	16	10	0	0.0%	62.5%	24.6%
Andre Johnson	WR	HOU	151	1	31	13	11	2	40.0%	84.6%	41.9%
Steve Johnson	WR	BUF	115	1	43	12	8	1	33.3%	66.7%	27.9%
Antonio Brown	WR	PIT	76	1	40	12	8	0	0.0%	66.7%	30.0%
Dallas Clark	TE	TB	42	0	54	12	8	1	20.0%	66.7%	22.2%
Michael Crabtree	WR	SF	107	2	25	12	7	1	25.0%	58.3%	48.0%
Vincent Jackson	WR	TB	91	0	54	12	6	0	0.0%	50.0%	22.2%
Pierre Garcon	WR	WAS	65	0	37	12	6	1	33.3%	50.0%	32.4%
Danny Amendola	WR	STL	58	1	55	12	6	2	28.6%	50.0%	21.8%
Eric Decker	WR	DEN	133	1	28	11	8	1	20.0%	72.7%	39.3%
Cecil Shorts	WR	JAX	101	0	34	11	6	5	50.0%	54.5%	32.4%
Justin Blackmon	WR	JAX	93	0	34	11	6	1	10.0%	54.5%	32.4%
Steven Jackson	RB	STL	73	0	55	10	8	0	0.0%	80.0%	18.2%
Dennis Pitta	TE	BAL	125	2	40	10	7	1	33.3%	70.0%	25.0%
Miles Austin	WR	DAL	79	0	42	10	7	0	0.0%	70.0%	23.8%
Dexter McCluster	WR	KC	59	0	32	10	7	0	0.0%	70.0%	31.3%
A.J. Green	WR	CIN	57	1	27	10	6	3	60.0%	60.0%	37.0%
Danny Woodhead	RB	NE	23	0	65	10	5	0	0.0%	50.0%	15.4%
Mike Wallace	WR	PIT	95	0	40	10	4	2	66.7%	40.0%	25.0%

Once again, we're all starting to see the Aaron Hernandez everyone thought they were getting when they drafted him as high as the fourth round during the preseason. Tom Brady obviously has no qualms about going to Brandon Lloyd or Wes Welker, but it's no secret that he loves to go to his tight end more than anyone else. Before Rob Gronkowski got hurt, he was dominating in target percentage and now over these last two weeks, a healthy Hernandez is doing the same. While the Jags, before this week, ranked eighth against opposing tight ends, they still give up an average of 52 yards per game to the position and Hernandez should do just fine.

The 49ers may not throw the ball all that often (just 25 pass attempts in Week 15), but Michael Crabtree is still coming up huge for fantasy owners at just the right time. He's now seen double-digit targets in each of his last three games and has come down with 23 receptions for 301 yards and two touchdowns. He's been money in the bank in PPR leagues and rock solid in standard play, but he faces a tough match-up with Seattle in Seattle next week. The last time these two teams faced off, he had just four catches for 31 yards, so be careful. Even if the quarterback is different, the defense remains the same.

It was nice to see Pierre Garcon hop onto the targets leaderboard this week even without Robert Griffin III under center. There's still plenty of talk about him only coming back when he's ready, so a good rapport between Garcon and Kirk Cousins is going to be helpful if the two are paired together again next week when the Skins head to Philadelphia.

Welcome back, Eric Decker! Oh man, had it been a rough five weeks heading into this match-up with the Ravens. Decker had fallen off the map for a while, but bounced back a little during Week 14. Despite the soft match-up with the Ravens, he was still a questionable start this week as owners just weren't sure if he was going to see the big targets again. So a special thanks to Peyton Manning for making your fantasy dreams come true as Decker was a beast this week and will hopefully continue when the Broncos host the Browns in Week 16.

The Chiefs are bad. There's no other way to say it. They could actually be worse than the Jets. However, with Dwayne Bowe out, it looks like Dexter McCluster is the guy to own moving forward. Again, the team is bad and your expectations should be pretty darn low, but if you're somehow crazy desperate for a third wide receiver, he's the guy who will be seeing plenty of targets. Sure, it's Brady Quinn throwing the ball, but McCluster didn't really have such a bad game this week. Definitely more solid in PPR play, but actually has a solid match-up against a suspect Colts secondary next week.

And finally, how about Cecil Shorts getting half the red zone looks this week? Unfortunately he didn't convert any, but one game back from a concussion and he puts up over 100 yards and still garners all those looks inside the 20? He should be a beast next week when the match-up is right.
And now for the overall...

Target Percentage Leaderboard

Player Name	Pos	Team	Yards	TD	Pass Att	Targets	Recpt	RZTgts	RZTgt%	Catch %	Target %
Brandon Marshall	WR	CHI	1398	10	428	164	107	17	38.6%	65.2%	38.3%
A.J. Green	WR	CIN	1208	11	474	144	85	22	36.1%	59.0%	30.4%
Reggie Wayne	WR	IND	1234	4	564	171	97	15	26.3%	56.7%	30.3%
Steve Johnson	WR	BUF	891	6	450	129	69	16	29.6%	53.5%	28.7%
Steve Smith	WR	CAR	1056	3	427	121	66	13	22.4%	54.5%	28.3%
Michael Crabtree	WR	SF	868	7	371	105	73	8	19.0%	69.5%	28.3%
Andre Johnson	WR	HOU	1360	4	485	135	93	7	15.6%	68.9%	27.8%
Calvin Johnson	WR	DET	1667	5	642	174	106	15	16.5%	60.9%	27.1%
Wes Welker	WR	NE	1172	4	565	151	100	16	20.8%	66.2%	26.7%
Larry Fitzgerald	WR	ARI	674	4	525	139	61	18	29.0%	43.9%	26.5%
Victor Cruz	WR	NYG	1019	9	499	132	79	19	22.9%	59.8%	26.5%
Brian Hartline	WR	MIA	1002	1	444	117	67	12	19.7%	57.3%	26.4%
Vincent Jackson	WR	TB	1226	8	477	125	62	16	25.0%	49.6%	26.2%
Dwayne Bowe	WR	KC	801	3	438	114	59	4	10.8%	51.8%	26.0%
Davone Bess	WR	MIA	778	1	444	105	61	5	8.2%	58.1%	23.6%
Demaryius Thomas	WR	DEN	1210	8	511	119	78	17	21.5%	65.5%	23.3%
Jason Witten	TE	DAL	923	2	578	132	97	12	16.9%	73.5%	22.8%
Roddy White	WR	ATL	1156	5	539	123	79	16	20.5%	64.2%	22.8%
Mike Wallace	WR	PIT	823	8	521	114	63	15	21.4%	55.3%	21.9%
Justin Blackmon	WR	JAX	707	3	493	107	51	7	12.5%	47.7%	21.7%
Sidney Rice	WR	SEA	734	7	364	79	49	13	25.5%	62.0%	21.7%
Greg Olsen	TE	CAR	747	5	427	92	59	12	20.7%	64.1%	21.5%
Anquan Boldin	WR	BAL	828	4	491	105	58	9	20.9%	55.2%	21.4%
Eric Decker	WR	DEN	923	9	511	109	72	21	26.6%	66.1%	21.3%
Tony Gonzalez	TE	ATL	880	8	539	113	87	16	20.5%	77.0%	21.0%
Mike Williams	WR	TB	799	7	477	99	50	14	21.9%	50.5%	20.8%
Randall Cobb	WR	GB	892	7	479	99	77	7	11.7%	77.8%	20.7%
Julio Jones	WR	ATL	1071	9	539	111	69	18	23.1%	62.2%	20.6%
Jeremy Kerley	WR	NYJ	739	2	433	89	53	9	15.0%	59.6%	20.6%
Dez Bryant	WR	DAL	1087	10	578	118	79	14	19.7%	66.9%	20.4%
Kendall Wright	WR	TEN	586	4	495	101	62	13	22.4%	61.4%	20.4%
Donnie Avery	WR	IND	743	3	564	114	55	13	22.8%	48.2%	20.2%
Brandon Lloyd	WR	NE	840	4	565	113	67	13	16.9%	59.3%	20.0%
Percy Harvin	WR	MIN	677	3	425	85	62	5	9,1%	72.9%	20.0%
Torrey Smith	WR	BAL	767	7	491	98	44	7	16.3%	44.9%	20.0%
Hakeem Nicks	WR	NYG	692	3	499	97	53	17	20.5%	54.6%	19.4%
Owen Daniels	TE	HOU	662	6	485	93	56	10	22.2%	60.2%	19.2%
Cecil Shorts	WR	JAX	925	7	493	94	49	15	26.8%	52.1%	19.1%
Kyle Rudolph	TE	MIN	434	8	425	81	48	15	27.3%	59.3%	19.1%
Marques Colston	WR	NO	949	8	579	109	68	19	21.6%	62.4%	18.8%
Jermaine Gresham	TE	CIN	699	5	474	89	61	13	21.3%	68.5%	18.8%
Miles Austin	WR	DAL	898	5	578	108	62	12	16.9%	57.4%	18.7%
Jimmy Graham	TE	NO	779	8	579	108	69	15	17.0%	63.9%	18.7%
Antonio Brown	WR	PIT	668	3	521	97	59	0	0.0%	60.8%	18.6%
Jeremy Maclin	WR	PHI	719	5	533	99	57	14	25.0%	57.6%	18.6%
Andre Roberts	WR	ARI	697	5	525	96	56	7	11.3%	58.3%	18.3%
Denarius Moore	WR	OAK	724	6	565	101	47	14	20.0%	46.5%	17.9%
Dennis Pitta	TE	BAL	613	7	491	87	57	12	27.9%	65.5%	17.7%
Heath Miller	TE	PIT	771	8	521	92	68	20	28.6%	73.9%	17.7%
Danny Amendola	WR	STL	634	3	488	85	57	12	23.1%	67.1%	17.4%
Malcom Floyd	WR	SD	814	5	489	85	56	0	0.0%	65.9%	17.4%
Josh Gordon	WR	CLE	759	5	498	85	45	9	15.8%	52.9%	17.1%
James Jones	WR	GB	622	12	479	81	51	16	26.7%	63.0%	16.9%
Brandon Myers	TE	OAK	743	4	565	94	72	13	18.6%	76.6%	16.6%
Nate Washington	WR	TEN	710	4	495	82	43	7	12.1%	52.4%	16.6%
DeSean Jackson	WR	PHI	700	2	533	88	45	8	14.3%	51.1%	16.5%
Golden Tate	WR	SEA	556	7	364	60	40	11	21.6%	66.7%	16.5%
Scott Chandler	TE	BUF	546	6	450	73	42	10	18.5%	57.5%	16.2%
Dexter McCluster	WR	KC	417	1	438	71	48	6	16.2%	67.6%	16.2%
Greg Little	WR	CLE	551	2	498	80	44	6	10.5%	55.0%	16.1%
Lance Moore	WR	NO	890	5	579	93	57	13	14.8%	61.3%	16.1%

The most notable absence from the above table has to be Bears receiver Brandon Marshall. He still saw the bulk of the targets this week, which keeps him atop the TPL again, but with just seven looks this week, he didn't get a whole lot of his usual opportunities. That should be rectified by a match-up with Arizona who just coughed up 121 yards to Megatron this past week.

It's tough as a fantasy owner to watch Larry Fitzgerald and Victor Cruz drop here on the TPL at this point in the season. These are names that we drafted early with the hopes of them carrying much of our receiving crops this year and we're sitting here now pushing these guys aside for lesser receivers with better match-ups. Fitz now has 10 catches for just 89 yards and no touchdowns over his last five games and while he is still seeing 26.5-percent of the team's targets, the most on the team, his quarterback situation has helped flush his fantasy value down the toilet. As for Cruz, he's had just two 100-yard games in his last seven and has only found the endzone twice in that span. Eli Manning can definitely take some of the blame, but with so many teams amping up their coverage on him, it's getting awfully difficult to trust him in a tough match-up. Not that the Ravens are too tough a match-up, but the trust factor isn't quite back to 100-percent yet.

Vincent Jackson is another one whose production has tapered off here in the second half. He's still seeing the majority of targets on that squad, but both Dallas Clark and Mike Williams are seeing a fair amount as well and that, plus a sub-par catch rate, is dragging Jackson down. He needs just one more TD to match a career high for the season, but with a tough match-up with the Rams, he's going to have to step it up a lot more these next two weeks.

Things have certainly calmed down as far as target percentage for tight ends, hasn't it? Back after Week three, there were 16 tight ends found on the TPL with somewhat dominating red zone numbers as well. Today, there are only 10 and the red zone numbers are right about near league average. Granted, we've had situations like Gronkowski getting hurt and Hernandez not playing in enough games to crack the current TPL, but guys who started off strong like Jimmy Graham, Kyle Rudolph, Brent Celek and Brandon Pettigrew have all dropped in overall target numbers and aren't putting up the points we may have though the position was going to provide for us this season. Meanwhile, guys like Vernon Davis and Jermichael Finley have all but fallen off the map completely.

Just Missing the Cut This Week: Josh Morgan (16.0%), Kenny Britt (16.0%), Martellus Bennett (15.6%), Andrew Hawkins (14.8%)

TPL Risers to Monitor: Justin Blackmon, Brandon Lloyd, Josh Gordon
TPL Fallers to Monitor: Brandon Myers, Kenny Britt, Cecil Shorts

Week 16 Matchup to Watch: New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars – After watching Tom Brady light up the Houston Texans a few weeks ago and then mount a crazy comeback against the highly ranked 49ers pass defense, fantasy owners should be licking their chops to get their Patriots active against a Jaguars pass defense that allows an average of 246 passing yards per game with 19 passing touchdowns on the season. Their mark of just 15 sacks translates to a poor pass rush, so with a whole mess of time, you can bet Brady will carve up that secondary with Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Brandon Lloyd. But don't go dismissing the Jags just yet as the Pats' passing defense ranks 29th in the league and gives up 270 yards per game with a whopping 26 passing touchdowns this year. Chad Henne may not be the best, but he's familiar with the Patriots from his Miami days, has an improving Justin Blackmon, and has a now-healthy Cecil Shorts. Throw the bomb-a-rooskie should be this game's tag-line.

Potential Week 16 Breakouts: Justin Blackmon, Danny Amendola, Heath Miller
Potential Week 16 Busts: Dennis Pitta, Michael Crabtree, Nate Washington

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