This article is part of our According to the Data series.
I'm a big believer in the power of aggregate rankings. In taking the average (or median) of independently-generated expert opinions - known as "wisdom of the crowds" - you can factor out individual biases (hopefully) to get a more accurate picture of reality.
And composite rankings have proven to be really accurate in the past. If you have a player ranked far from the expert consensus, you really need to assess your decision for any potential faults. You don't need to conform for the sake of conformity, but if a bunch of people disagree with your projection for a particular player, you need to be more confident in that projection than normal to maintain your ranking.
I have running back Marshawn Lynch ranked at No. 37 overall in PPR leagues, for example - way below his current ADP of No. 11 overall. There are all kinds of reasons I foresee a down year for Lynch - I'm really confident in my assessment of him - but if I were a bit more unsure, I'd rank him higher just because I could be wrong. Composite rankings can help us account for our own fallibility.
In the past, I compared the RotoWire standard top 50 to average draft position in order to see which players the experts like more than the general public. If a handful of experts have independently ranked specific players well ahead of or below their ADP, it's probably a good chance to
I'm a big believer in the power of aggregate rankings. In taking the average (or median) of independently-generated expert opinions - known as "wisdom of the crowds" - you can factor out individual biases (hopefully) to get a more accurate picture of reality.
And composite rankings have proven to be really accurate in the past. If you have a player ranked far from the expert consensus, you really need to assess your decision for any potential faults. You don't need to conform for the sake of conformity, but if a bunch of people disagree with your projection for a particular player, you need to be more confident in that projection than normal to maintain your ranking.
I have running back Marshawn Lynch ranked at No. 37 overall in PPR leagues, for example - way below his current ADP of No. 11 overall. There are all kinds of reasons I foresee a down year for Lynch - I'm really confident in my assessment of him - but if I were a bit more unsure, I'd rank him higher just because I could be wrong. Composite rankings can help us account for our own fallibility.
In the past, I compared the RotoWire standard top 50 to average draft position in order to see which players the experts like more than the general public. If a handful of experts have independently ranked specific players well ahead of or below their ADP, it's probably a good chance to exploit a market inefficiency.
Today, I'm going to compare the RotoWire team's PPR Top 50 Rankings to current ADP.
| Rank | Player | ADP | Difference | % Change |
| 3 | C.J. Spiller | 5 | 2 | 40 |
| 11 | Brandon Marshall | 16 | 5 | 31.3 |
| 47 | Shane Vereen | 65 | 18 | 27.7 |
| 44 | Torrey Smith | 60 | 16 | 26.7 |
| 42 | Jordy Nelson | 55 | 13 | 23.6 |
| 10 | Dez Bryant | 13 | 3 | 23.1 |
| 48 | Mike Wallace | 61 | 13 | 21.3 |
| 46 | Giovani Bernard | 58 | 12 | 20.7 |
| 16 | Demaryius Thomas | 20 | 4 | 20 |
| 33 | Danny Amendola | 41 | 8 | 19.5 |
| 30 | Vincent Jackson | 37 | 7 | 18.9 |
| 31 | Lamar Miller | 38 | 7 | 18.4 |
| 28 | Victor Cruz | 34 | 6 | 17.6 |
| 5 | Calvin Johnson | 6 | 1 | 16.7 |
| 20 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 24 | 4 | 16.7 |
| 22 | Larry Fitzgerald | 26 | 4 | 15.4 |
| 39 | Cam Newton | 46 | 7 | 15.2 |
| 45 | Hakeem Nicks | 52 | 7 | 13.5 |
| 26 | Roddy White | 30 | 4 | 13.3 |
| 27 | Andre Johnson | 31 | 4 | 12.9 |
| 7 | LeSean McCoy | 8 | 1 | 12.5 |
| 8 | Trent Richardson | 9 | 1 | 11.1 |
| 43 | Eddie Lacy | 48 | 5 | 10.4 |
| 50 | Vernon Davis | 54 | 4 | 7.4 |
| 13 | A.J. Green | 14 | 1 | 7.1 |
| 40 | Dwayne Bowe | 42 | 2 | 4.8 |
| 14 | Julio Jones | 19 | 5 | 2.6 |
| 49 | Ryan Mathews | 50 | 1 | 2 |
| 1 | Adrian Peterson | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Doug Martin | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Jamaal Charles | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Matt Forte | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Jimmy Graham | 15 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 | Randall Cobb | 28 | -1 | -3.6 |
| 24 | Aaron Rodgers | 23 | -1 | -4.3 |
| 23 | Drew Brees | 22 | -1 | -4.5 |
| 18 | Chris Johnson | 17 | -1 | -5.9 |
| 38 | Peyton Manning | 35 | -3 | -8.6 |
| 36 | David Wilson | 33 | -3 | -9.1 |
| 41 | Darren McFadden | 36 | -5 | -13.9 |
| 37 | Frank Gore | 32 | -5 | -15.6 |
| 21 | Steven Jackson | 18 | -3 | -16.7 |
| 25 | Reggie Bush | 21 | -4 | -19 |
| 35 | DeMarco Murray | 29 | -6 | -20.7 |
| 34 | Darren Sproles | 27 | -7 | -25.9 |
| 32 | Stevan Ridley | 25 | -7 | -28 |
| 9 | Ray Rice | 7 | -2 | -28.5 |
| 17 | Marshawn Lynch | 10 | -7 | -70 |
| 19 | Alfred Morris | 11 | -8 | -72.7 |
| 6 | Arian Foster | 3 | -3 | -100 |
The players ranked at the top are those who are ranked higher in our composite rankings than in ADP. I chose to use the percentage change because I believe a three-spot drop in the first round is way more important than a three-spot drop in the fourth round. Arian Foster is getting drafted at No. 3 overall, for example, yet we've ranked him at No. 6 overall. That's a very meaningful drop.
Looking at the data, I think there's a trend with running backs. For the most part, the experts are very bullish on speedy running backs (Spiller and Miller), while slower backs like Ridley, Lynch, Morris and Foster dominate the bottom of the list. That's awesome to see since there seems to be a very strong correlation between running back success and straight-line speed.
It's also interesting to see some of the league's top pass-catching backs ranked so low. Jackson, Bush, Murray, Sproles and Rice all rank in the bottom nine, meaning the experts are lower on them than most. It's intriguing because I recently did some research that suggested that pass-catching backs are actually undervalued in PPR.
And in the event that you would rather assess these numbers in terms of the actual numerical difference between rankings as opposed to the percent change, here are the top five players on whom the experts are bullish and bearish relative to ADP.
Bullish
1. Shane Vereen
2. Torrey Smith
3. Jordy Nelson
4. Mike Wallace
5. Giovani Bernard
Bearish
1. Alfred Morris
2. Marshawn Lynch
3. Stevan Ridley
4. Darren Sproles
5. DeMarco Murray
Jonathan Bales is the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. He also runs the "Running the Numbers" blog at DallasCowboys.com and writes for the New York Times.
