This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Byes: Arizona, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Seattle, St. Louis
New York Giants (+3.5) at Washington, Thursday, 8:25 p.m. EST
Comments: In three Thursday games, the average margin of victory is 27.3 PPG (82-point differential). This game's loser will be 1-3, last in the NFC East. Eli Manning, drastically improved each week, finally got in sync with Victor Cruz. Cruz scored for the first time since week 4 2013 and doesn't have to worry about DeAngelo Hall (IR) this week. Cruz had caught just 44 percent of his targets before hauling in 5/6 (83%) for 107 yards against Houston. It will be interesting to see if the league's third-leading rusher, Rashad Jennings, has anything left after 34 carries Sunday. He's been terrific with 381 total yards (286 rushing), but faces a stiff test. Washington, third against the run, just held LeSean McCoy to 22 yards on 19 carries. Larry Donnell offers minimal upside, but is here to stay, at least five receptions and six targets in every game. ... Kirk Cousins comes in en fuego after a 427-yard, three-TD performance (27 points, second to Andrew Luck). The NFL's fourth-rated passer (105.8), clearly a better fit for Jay Gruden's offense, faces NY's 22nd-ranked pass defense allowing 8.5 YPA (next to last). DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon finally broke out against Philadelphia, each registering 100-plus yards and a TD. However, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Prince Amukamara present a significantly greater challenge. Niles Paul, seventh among tight ends in fantasy points, is not a fluke. Averaging eight targets and 84.3 YPG, he's earned playing time even when Jordan Reed (hamstring) comes back. Alfred Morris, the NFL's fourth-leading rusher, has a tricky matchup against an underrated Giants run defense, but should see his usual 20 carries.
Predictions:Rashad Jennings totals 83 yards and a score. Eli Manning's solid play continues despite one ugly turnover. Victor Cruz catches seven for 90 yards and a touchdown. Kirk Cousins cools off a bit, finishing with 269 yards and two touchdowns. Alfred Morris contributes a workmanlike 93 yards and a TD. Redskins end a two-game losing streak to the G-Men. Washington, 24-21.
Miami (-4.5) at Oakland, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST (in London)
Comments: Miami needs to rebound after back-to-back ugly losses. Ryan Tannehill has been awful, to the point where Joe Philbin has yet to confirm his week 4 starter. His passer rating has been below 80.0 in all three games, YPA 5.6 or less in each. His 5.0 YPA is last among all qualified passers. Pocket presence is a requirement for franchise quarterbacks; he has none. Unless benched for Matt Moore, Tannehill faces Oakland's fourth-ranked pass defense at 183.3 YPG. Mike Wallace has been targeted at least eight times in each game, averaging 10.3 per. Wallace scored in six of eight prior to week 3; imagine if he had a quarterback who could hit him on a deep ball. You'd have to be desperate to still start Charles Clay, as he's failed to top 31 yards in a game. Lamar Miller, coming off his second career 100-yard game, is a must-start against a Raiders defense allowing 158.7 YPG (31st in NFL). I'd be shocked if he received less than 20 carries given the opponent and the way he gashed Kansas City. ... Derek Carr actually has a higher passer rating than his counterpart (74.9 to 74.1), despite being ranking 28th. That likely won't improve against a top-seven pass defense. Unspectacular James Jones and inconsistent Denarius Moore will be Carr's primary targets with Rod Streater (foot) out. The offense should run through Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew (if active) as the way to beat Miami is on the ground (20th against the run). MJD (hand) should play this week after sitting out the last two. If sidelined again, DMC is a three-down back; Latavius Murray has only been used to spell McFadden with Jones-Drew out.
Predictions:Ryan Tannehill starts and plays well (by his standards). Lamar Miller rips off a 61-yard TD, shredding the Raiders for 138 yards. Mike Wallace catches his first 40-plus-yard touchdown since joining the Dolphins. Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew combine for 117 yards on the ground. Dolphins snap their two-game losing streak, keeping the Raiders out of the win column. Miami, 23-17.
Green Bay (-1) at Chicago, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments:Aaron Rodgers was unexpectedly awful Sunday and has been far from elite to start the season (barely inside top 10), limited to less than 200 yards passing and 6.0 YPA in two of his first three games. In addition, quarterbacks have been intercepted a league-high six times against the Bears. However, the only time he's lost to Chicago in their last seven meetings was 2013 when he broke his collarbone during the first offensive series. Like the rest of the offense, Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson were subpar in week 3. Don't expect a huge turnaround; Kyle Fuller and Tim Jennings are a formidable CB duo. If you're an Eddie Lacy believer, now is the time to buy. Lacy has been horrendous so far with no more than 43 rushing or 61 total yards in a game. He has yet to score a touchdown or more than six fantasy points, but he's faced three of the top five run defenses. This is the best buy-low candidate in football. Send the trade offers now before he goes off on the Bears' 26th-ranked run defense. ... Chicago has to be pleased sitting atop the NFC North at 2-1 given it hasn't really played well yet. With the 27-19 win over New York, Jay Cutler improved to 7-1 on MNF since joining the Bears. Unfortunately, this game is on Sunday and they aren't playing the Jets. He's also facing a (surprisingly) sixth-ranked Green Bay pass defense allowing 198.3 YPG and 6.5 YPA. Cutler's favorite target, Brandon Marshall, aggravated his ankle injury Monday night. He returned but was clearly hampered and will be working on just five days' rest. Alshon Jeffery would again be the focal point of the passing attack with Marshall either limited or inactive. Quietly, Martellus Bennett has more fantasy points than any TE not named Julius Thomas. Matt Forte will try to jumpstart his season against the league's 30th-ranked run defense (156.0 YPG). Forte has just 112 total yards since opening with 169 and has yet to score a touchdown.
Predictions:Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers have decent games, each throwing for 250-plus yards and two touchdowns. Eddie Lacy finally gets his season on track with 144 yards and two scores. Matt Forte finally hits pay dirt, twice (rushing, receiving). With Brandon Marshall far from 100 percent healthy, Alshon Jeffery is targeted 12 times, hauling in eight for 121 yards and a touchdown. Packers win a barnburner. Green Bay, 30-27.
Buffalo (+3) at Houston, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: This game features two surprise 2-0 teams that took their first losses last weekend. Despite a fairly quiet start, C.J. Spiller is a top-15 RB so far. Scoring twice is a big part of that, but he also has at least 62 total yards in every game. Fred Jackson, coming off a strong performance, is always going to be in the way despite his lack of explosiveness. Silver lining for Spiller owners: he was given more carries than Jackson in all three games. Both backs are viable facing Houston (25th vs. rush), just shelled for 193 yards and allowing second-highest 5.2 YPC. EJ Manuel has improved in every statistical category since his rookie season. While the play hasn't been stellar, Manuel has been consistently solid. As predicted, Sammy Watkins continues to be a hit-or-miss rollercoaster from one game to the next; obvious, jaw-dropping talent but inconsistent rookie WR. Watkins and Manuel have a milquetoast matchup this week against an average Houston pass defense. ... It was clear Arian Foster couldn't hold up under that workload; on pace for an NFL-record 440 carries with 55 through two games. Considering Foster missed last week with a hamstring injury, and the Bills are sixth against the run, it's hard to love him this week. Alfred Blue, the clear handcuff, would again start in his place if Foster's hammy isn't right by Sunday. Ryan Fitzpatrick expectedly reverted back to his true self against the Giants, throwing three INT (zero through two games). This will be a common theme anytime Houston is trailing and asking Fitz to win a game. DeAndre Hopkins is more efficient than Andre Johnson. Hopkins' yards per target is equal to Johnson's yards per reception (11.9). Both have a terrific matchup against Buffalo's 26th-ranked pass defense.
Predictions:C.J. Spiller pops a 46-yarder in the third quarter on the way to his first 100-yard game. An "up" week during his up-and-down season, Sammy Watkins finishes with 89 yards and EJ Manuel's only touchdown. Arian Foster plays but finds little room to run as Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus dominate the LOS. Andre Johnson finally scores a touchdown during a nine-catch, 118-yard day. Buffalo, 20-19.
Tennessee (+7.5) at Indianapolis, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Early turnaround talk surrounding Jake Locker, 29th in Total QBR, has dissipated. Locker's poor play has coincided with disappointing performances from his receivers as well. Justin Hunter has yet to catch more than three passes in a game despite averaging seven targets and Kendall Wright can't seem to break 50 yards. If Locker (wrist) plays, he and his wideouts should get back on track against Indy's 28th-ranked pass defense. Bishop Sankey and Shonn Greene received 10 carries apiece against Cincinnati, with the rookie doing much more with his. That essentially even workload should start to turn in Sankey's favor in coming weeks. Delanie Walker has been a top-five TE thus far. Based on his steady diet of targets (more than eight a game), that shouldn't drop soon. ... Andrew Luck is the No. 1 QB in fantasy football. Luck is leading the league with 10 TD, scoring at least three in every game. This will be one of his toughest matchups this year as Tennessee's pass defense is second in yards allowed (510) and third in TD (3). Since 2013, the Titans have allowed just 18 passing touchdowns in 19 games. Regardless of matchup, you can't trust Luck's receivers. Similarly to Drew Brees, Luck spreads the ball around too well to consistently count on one receiver. Reggie Wayne remains his favorite target, but lack of explosiveness and touchdowns keep his ceiling low. T.Y. Hilton will have three huge games this year, but good luck predicting when. Hakeem Nicks is clearly the third wheel and would need an injury to one of the others to be relevant. Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen split snaps/targets far too evenly for either to have value. Trent Richardson's 27-yard run against Jacksonville was his longest as a Colt; also his first game over 4.0 YPC since the trade (4.1). Ahmad Bradshaw continues to produce at a ridiculous rate with 6.0 YPC and 9.5 per reception. Bradshaw, who had three receiving TD his first seven years, has three in as many games in 2014. Richardson and Bradshaw take on a Titans run defense allowing 134.3 YPG (24th in NFL).
Predictions:Justin Hunter finally displays the ability that made him a trendy sleeper pick this preseason with a 39-yard TD among his 101 yards. Bishop Sankey proves why he was selected in the second round with 87 yards on 14 carries, garnering the lions' share of the load. Andrew Luck fails to score three TD for the first time, finishing with 234 yards and two scores. Trent Richardson continues to impress, rushing 18 times for 83 yards and a score. Colts take care of their AFC South rival. Indianapolis, 24-17.
Carolina (+3) at Baltimore, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Carolina is in real trouble at RB with Mike Tolbert (leg) and Jonathan Stewart (knee) set to miss extended time. Not that it will matter against Baltimore's run defense (8th in NFL), but it needs DeAngelo Williams (thigh) back. Cam Newton committed his first two turnovers in Sunday night's embarrassment. More concerning for Newton owners is just 26 yards on the ground (6 attempts), as so much of his value is derived from his legs. Kelvin Benjamin is still the rookie receiver to own and only relevant Carolina pass-catcher outside of Greg Olsen. Olsen is as rock solid as they come at TE, while Benjamin has been thrown to at least eight times in every game. Although the Ravens are a top-six scoring D at 16.7 PPG, the Panthers passing attack has a decent matchup (24th vs pass). ... Ravens are flying high following their 23-21 comeback victory in Cleveland. Lorenzo Taliaferro filled in admirably for Bernard Pierce, creating a three-headed monster in the backfield. While Pierce (if active) will probably start this game, Taliaferro and Justin Forsett have earned playing time. Beyond that confusion, Carolina's run defense is bewildering. The Panthers had been elite against the run with just 172 yards allowed prior to allowing 264 yards to Pittsburgh, including two 100-yard rushers. Since 2013, the Panthers have surrendered an NFL-low five rush TD. Even more perplexing is the poor play of Torrey Smith, who was finally targeted more than Steve Smith but secured just two of eight. T. Smith has just 85 yards this season (18 targets) while S. Smith averages more than that per game (96.7). With Dennis Pitta (hip) done for the year, Owen Daniels will step in as Joe Flacco's new security blanket. This game should further define roles within Baltimore's offense.
Predictions:Cam Newton is forced to carry the team on his back, leading in rushing (56 yards, TD) with 231 passing yards and a TD pass to Greg Olsen. Baltimore rotates all three backs to no avail, as it appears Pittsburgh woke a sleeping giant. Steve Smith scores against his former team but is outgained 92-63 by Torrey Smith. Panthers win a defensive struggle. Carolina, 17-13.
Detroit (-1.5) at New York Jets, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Strangely enough, this game features the top two defenses in football. Detroit is top three in all categories, and New York ranks no lower than ninth. Matthew Stafford finally beat Aaron Rodgers for the first time in seven career meetings. However, he didn't exactly look great doing so and has zero TD to three INT since shredding the Giants in the opener. Maybe this is the week he shakes it off; New York hasn't picked off a pass yet while opposing quarterbacks have seven TD and a passer rating of 98.5 (26th in NFL). Reggie Bush finally out-snapped, out-touched and outscored backfield mate Joique Bell in week 3, but has 17 fewer snaps and six fewer touches (47 to 41) on the year. Irrelevant against the Jets; you just can't run on that team. They've shut down Eddie Lacy and Matt Forte in consecutive weeks, allow a league-low 2.8 YPC, and give up just 55.0 YPG on the ground (tops in NFL). No surprise here, but Calvin Johnson is fourth in both yardage and fantasy points among wide receivers. He just might leapfrog his way to No. 1 after this game - Antonio Allen, Darrin Walls and Dee Milliner are brutally overmatched. ... Geno Smith has a career 15:25 TD:INT ratio, with six of those picks going to the house. His 77.0 passer rating ranks him between Chad Henne and Derek Carr. While it's clear neither Smith nor Michael Vick are the answer at QB, at least Vick's wheels open up running lanes for the backs. Chris Johnson and Chris Ivory should be rooting for Geno to get benched, as their fantasy value would increase if Vick were named the starter. A moot point for this week, however, with Smith still the starter and their opponent the second-best run defense in football, behind only the front seven they see every day in practice. Eric Decker (hamstring) finished Monday's game. Fortunately, he didn't suffer a setback, taking himself out after feeling "tightness that wouldn't loosen up."
Predictions: Both RB duos are held to less than 60 yards on the ground, as the defensive lines dominate the LOS. Calvin Johnson lights up the Jets secondary for 156 yards and two scores, taking full advantage of his mismatch. Matthew Stafford finds his form, finishing with 278 yards and no picks. He adds a third TD on a screen to Reggie Bush. Geno Smith commits two turnovers and is sacked four times, prompting boos from the home crowd. Lions defense controls the game for a second straight week Detroit, 24-13.
Tampa Bay (+7.5) at Pittsburgh, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Comments: Tampa Bay clearly wasn't ready to play last Thursday, but can't use short rest as an excuse after having 10 days to prepare for Pittsburgh. Thankfully for Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, Mike Glennon will replace Josh McCown (thumb). It's likely Glennon holds onto the starting job even when McCown returns. The season high between Jackson and Evans is 52 yards. Glennon wasn't outstanding as a rookie, but had a 19:9 TD:INT ratio and didn't kill the fantasy value of everyone around him. Jackson hasn't been targeted 10 times in a game in 2014, a number he averaged with Glennon under center. Bucs are confident Doug Martin (knee) plays, albeit with an undefined role. Tampa stuck with Bobby Rainey despite two lost fumbles against Atlanta. This is a plus-matchup for the Tampa backs facing a 22nd-ranked Pittsburgh run defense allowing 5.1 YPA and playing without Ryan Shazier (knee) and Jarvis Jones (wrist). ... Pittsburgh had been outscored 50-9 over the previous six quarters before outscoring Carolina, 37-19. After going eight quarters without a TD (18 points in that span), they scored four in that second half. Getting back to their roots, Steelers enter week 4 the No. 1 rushing offense in football. Without a doubt, Le'Veon Bell is a top-five RB now. The league's second-leading rusher with 314 yards, Bell has an NFL-high 461 total yards (153.7 per game) and third-most fantasy points among RB despite scoring just once. Antonio Brown, second to Julio Jones in fantasy points, tied Laveranues Coles with 19 straight games with at least five receptions. Start your Steelers against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 20th or worse in every defensive category and allows 31.7 PPG (second-most in NFL).
Predictions:Ben Roethlisberger throws for 252 yards, hitting Heath Miller for his only TD. Le'Veon Bell eclipses 100 total yards for a fourth straight game (and 6 of 7 dating to 2013), tallying 121 yards and a score. Antonio Brown hauls in seven passes for 93 yards, breaking the tie with Coles. Vincent Jackson registers his first 100-yard game (thank you Mike Glennon). Doug Martin looks terrific in his return, rushing for 102 yards and scoring. Bucs lose, but prove they aren't the worst team in football. Pittsburgh, 24-20.
Jacksonville (+13) at San Diego, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST
Comments: So much for redshirting Blake Bortles, Gus Bradley has finally had enough of Chad Henne. And who can blame him? His 16.1 Total QBR is 35th among qualifying passers. Blake Bortles, while not great in relief against Indy, was sensational in the preseason with 10.2 YPA and 110.0 passer rating. With the switch you don't feel as good about San Diego's DST, but still represent one of the best streaming defense options. Chargers, no worse than 14th in any defensive category, are fourth in the league allowing just 16.3 PPG whereas Jacksonville scores just 14.7/game (30th in NFL). Toby Gerhart continues to look terrible, with just 82 yards on 34 carries (2.4 YPA). Fortunately for Gerhart owners, the Jags don't have anyone else to go to. Don't cut him -- just keep him on your bench until he shows you something, which likely won't be this week against a top-10 run defense. Cecil Shorts (hamstring) tied Allen Robinson for the team lead with 10 targets in his return. If Marqise Lee (hamstring) misses this contest as well, those two will be Bortles' primary targets. Outside of one play where the Colts forgot how to tackle, Allen Hurns has been a non-factor since the first half of week 1. ... With Ryan Mathews sidelined and Danny Woodhead out for the season, Donald Brown will be a three-down back for at least the next month. Brown struggled to just 2.0 YPC against Buffalo, but the Jaguars are dead last against the run allowing 160.0 YPG. Like Brown, Philip Rivers has a cake matchup as Jacksonville ranks last in pass defense as well. Rivers' 108.3 passer rating trails only Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning while only TB allows opposing quarterbacks to be more efficient than the Jags (110.0 rating). Perhaps Keenan Allen's groin injury is bothering him more than we realize, because he's been awful. Still a possible buy-low, but just 17 targets are cause for concern. If he doesn't produce this week, trade him at discounted rate. In a flip-flop of roles, Ladarius Green was targeted six times (twice in RZ) while Antonio Gates was thrown at just once. In the first two games, Gates had more touchdowns (3) than Green had targets (2).
Predictions: Surprise, surprise: Toby Gerhart does nothing on the ground. Blake Bortles looks solid in his first NFL start, but throws two costly picks. Philip Rivers lights up Jacksonville for 317 yards. Keenan Allen busts out of his slump, catching both Rivers TD passes among his eight (120 yards). Donald Brown totals 109 yards and a score. Jaguars cover for the first time this year. San Diego, 26-16.
Atlanta (-3) at Minnesota, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Comments: The Falcons soar in with the No. 1 offense in football after shellacking the Bucs, 56-14. Ryan, third in fantasy points and second in passing yards, takes on a much-improved Vikings defense. Minnesota, 19th against the pass, gives up 62 fewer yards per game through the air than last year when it ranked next to last. Julio Jones, pacing all receivers with 365 yards and 51 fantasy points, has shown no ill effects from last season's foot injury. Jones' eight-game streak of at least six receptions and 75 yards is twice as long as any other WR. Last week's 9-161-2 line was the second-highest output of his career, and took him little more than a half to accumulate. Roddy White (hamstring) will play after being held out of last Thursday's win over TB. Steven Jackson is averaging 4.1 YPC but has hovered around 50 yards in each game. Jackson has averaged 91.5 yards and almost a touchdown per game against Minnesota in his career. However, he last played them in 2012 and hasn't seen more than 14 touches in any game this season. ... Teddy Bridgewater will start after Matt Cassel fractured several bones in his foot. This is a favorable matchup for the rookie against the Falcons 24th-ranked pass defense allowing 8.0 YPA. After his monster week 1, Cordarrelle Patterson has been quiet. Patterson hasn't scored in back-to-back weeks after seven TD in his previous six. Given the opponent and a better quarterback, expect Patterson and Greg Jennings to rebound nicely. Kyle Rudolph (groin surgery) is expected to miss six weeks. Once again, Matt Asiata was the primary ballcarrier despite (predictably) being horribly inefficient (less than 3.0 YPC). Nothing came of the expanded role talk as explosive rookie Jerick McKinnon touched the ball just four times. Atlanta allows less than 125 rushing yards per game.
Predictions:Matt Ryan's hot start continues with 292 yards and two TD. Steven Jackson scores again with 63 yards. Julio Jones falls just shy of his average with 119 yards while Roddy White chips in 78. Both score. Cordarrelle Patterson burns Desmond Trufant for a 49-yard TD during his second career 100-yard game. Bridgewater stays turnover-free in his first NFL start, Asiata terrible. Falcons win. Atlanta, 27-21.
Philadelphia (+5) at San Francisco, 4:25 ET Sunday
Comments: How are the 1-2 49ers almost a touchdown favorite over the undefeated Eagles? Philadelphia became the first team in NFL history to win its first three games after trailing by 10-plus in each. Nick Foles, fifth in fantasy points, has thrown for an NFL-high 978 yards and 300-plus yards in every game despite not looking particularly sharp. Based on what we've seen so far, we know Foles will give San Francisco's 14th-ranked pass defense multiple interception opportunities. If SF capitalizes, PHI could be in another double-digit hole early. Clearly Foles' top target, Jeremy Maclin is fifth in yards and third in fantasy points, the only wideout to score in all three games. Rookie Jordan Matthews could be working his way into a starting role with Riley Cooper struggling (less than 35 yards in each game). Zach Ertz is a top-10 TE but could easily work his way into the top five in that explosive offense. Although the offense is scoring 33.7 PPG, the running game has paled in comparison to last year's top-ranked rushing attack. LeSean McCoy, limited to 22 yards on 19 carries by the 'Skins, has been held to less than 80 yards and 4.0 YPC in every game (2.9 YPC overall). Not sure this is the week he gets it going as the 49ers, while not the impenetrable group we've seen since 2011, rank seventh against the run. ... San Fran needs to get back in the win column before this season gets away after consecutive come-from-ahead losses. 49ers have been outscored 52-3 in the second half, each game -14 or worse (14-0, 21-3, 17-0). Anquan Boldin and the fan base can blame the officiating all they want, but that's a "you" problem. Colin Kaepernick has to be giddy about this matchup after Kirk Cousins diced Philly's 30th-ranked pass defense for 427 passing yards and three touchdowns. His favorite target, Michael Crabtree, has scored 14 points in back-to-back games and his TE, Vernon Davis (ankle), should play Sunday. Jim Harbaugh has gotten away from the run late during their two losses, something that has to change. Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde need consistent carries to keep Philadelphia's potent offense on the sideline. For the most part, the Niners shouldn't have a problem moving the ball against an Eagle defense allowing 26.0 PPG (26th in points and total yards allowed).
Predictions:Colin Kaepernick is the top-scoring QB of Week 4 after throwing for 311 yards and running for 64 more, accounting for all four TD. Frank Gore has another poor game, finishing with just 43 yards as he's outplayed by the rookie again. Michael Crabtree produces a third straight game with more than 80 yards and a TD. Nick Foles commits two turnovers and is held to less than 300 yards for the first time. LeSean McCoy's slow start continues, but scrapes together 81 total yards and score. No way SF starts 1-3, 49ers "win one for the zipper." San Francisco, 28-27.
New Orleans (-3) at Dallas, Sunday, 5:30 p.m. EST
Comments: These teams also met last season on SNF, with New Orleans setting an NFL record with 40 first downs in a dominating 49-17 win. Drew Brees, while better against Minnesota, hasn't quite been himself with two TD or fewer in every game. Playing indoors in Dallas, this could be the game he needs to kick-start his year. In last year's meeting, Brees thrashed the Cowboys for 392 yards and four scores. As if he needed a great matchup to be successful, Jimmy Graham should have a monster game against a defense that can't defend the TE. Dallas surrendered 13-104-1 to Rams' tight ends last week (and wide open Jared Cook dropped a ball in the end zone), bringing opposing TE totals to 289 yards and four TD. Outside of Graham, it's hard to trust any Saint pass-catchers, though Brandin Cooks seems to be more consistently involved than either Marques Colston or Kenny Stills. While this matchup isn't the cupcake we anticipated (Dallas top-15 vs. run), Khiry Robinson has value if he gets another 18 carries. ... Dallas tied the largest comeback in team history (21 points), gritting out a 37-34 win over STL in the type of game it typically loses. Is that really Scott Linnehan calling plays? Only four teams have more rushing attempts than the Cowboys. Maybe that's why Tony Romo is outside the top-20 QBs. While not what you expected, don't panic just yet. Romo still has elite weapons and a long history of top-10 fantasy production, plus he gets the Saints' 29th-ranked pass defense. DeMarco Murray is the first RB since Curtis Martin in 2004 to rush for 100-plus yards and a TD in each of his first three games. Emmitt Smith and Tony Dorsett are the only other Cowboys to start a season with three 100-yard rushing games. Leading the NFL in carries (75) and yards (385), Murray is on pace for 400 carries and 2,053 yards. Saints are a top-seven run defense, so that could look very different Monday. In 2012, Dez Bryant helped many owners win their championship when he lit up NO for a career-high 224 yards and two TD in week 16. Let's hope this game is closer to that than his one-catch dud in 2013. Jason Witten is getting closer and closer to being droppable.
Predictions: With neither offense meeting expectations, both explode Sunday night. Drew Brees and Tony Romo each throw for 300-plus yards and three scores. DeMarco Murray has a tough day on the ground, but contributes as a receiver to total 84 YFS. Dez Bryant blows up the Saints' secondary in 2012 fashion for 162 yards and two touchdowns. Jimmy Graham matches Bryant's two touchdowns, finishing with 111 yards. In a high-scoring affair, Cowboys have the ball last. Dallas, 38-35.
New England (-3.5) at Kansas City, Monday, 5:30 p.m. EST
Comments: New England's offense has been atrocious, 26th in the NFL at 301.3 YPG. Patriots are fortunate to be 2-1 considering how poorly they've played offensively. Not often the case, but Tom Brady has been part of the problem. Brady has been held to less than 250 yards in five straight games dating to last season, throwing exactly one touchdown in each (less than 13 fantasy points in all). Only Ryan Tannehill and Derek Carr have a lower YPA than his 5.5. Brady should not be starting on your fantasy team, regardless of opponent (particularly here with Chiefs 11th vs pass). Rob Gronkowski, despite two touchdowns, also doesn't look quite right. He's played less than half the snaps (108 of 225), playing a season-high 42 (of 73) last week. Gronk has only converted 11 of 23 targets, failing to exceed four receptions or 45 yards in a game. One bright spot has been Julian Edelman, who hasn't had fewer than seven targets, six receptions, or 64 yards in a game since Nov. 18, 2013 (10 straight including playoffs). The Stevan Ridley/Shane Vereen conundrum comes down to who you believe wins the game. Since 2013, in NE wins Ridley used the majority of the time (292 snaps to 221); in losses, the opposite is true (74 snaps to 134). ... Jamaal Charles (ankle) is likely to return this week, relegating Knile Davis to the bench. Davis remains the best handcuff in fantasy, averaging over 100 YFS and nearly two touchdowns filling in for Charles. Assuming he plays, Charles has his hands full this week against New England's 11th-ranked run defense. The Patriots have allowed just 121 rushing yards since being gashed for 191 in the opener. Alex Smith completed 76 percent of his passes in a much-needed 34-15 win over Miami, finishing with three TD and 136.0 passer rating. However, offensive line is still a concern as Smith has been sacked 11 times (five last week). Travis Kelce's fantasy output has increased as his snaps have gone up (19, 32, 47). Kelce is a bona fide TE1 now that he's on the field the majority of the time (65.2 percent last week). With three receptions in each of his first two games, Dwayne Bowe isn't important enough to be shadowed by Darrelle Revis. Hard to believe he once led the NFL with 15 touchdown receptions with those hands.
Predictions:Tom Brady finally throws two touchdowns in a game, to Brandon LaFell and Aaron Dobson. Julian Edelman hauls in his usual six passes for 71 yards. Stevan Ridley outgains Shane Vereen, 67-60. Jamaal Charles has a tough go of it but totals 93 yards and a score. Travis Kelce outplays Rob Gronkowski. A Revis INT seals it. New England, 26-23.
