This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken | Vegas ML* | Vegas Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REDSKINS | Buccaneers | 26.10% | 290 | 74.36 |
| CHARGERS | Raiders | 21.70% | 600 | 85.71 |
| Broncos | RAMS | 12.40% | 450 | 81.82 |
| Steelers | TITANS | 12.30% | 240 | 70.59 |
| SAINTS | Bengals | 10.30% | 310 | 75.61 |
| DOLPHINS | Bills | 7.40% | 230 | 69.70 |
| 49ers | GIANTS | 2.90% | 185 | 64.91 |
| BEARS | Vikings | 2.30% | 160 | 61.54 |
| BROWNS | Texans | 1.70% | 165 | 62.26 |
| PACKERS | Eagles | 1.70% | 245 | 71.01 |
*Average of the Vegas moneylines
From the Vegas numbers and polling data, the Chargers and Broncos are the easy top picks, though it's worth counting up the number of remaining survivors in your pool that have used them to get a more customized reading. If you've used both, Vegas likes the Saints and Redskins next (Washington's higher usage vs. the Packers lower percentage to win actually makes them close.)
My Picks
1. Denver Broncos
If you were to do the math based on Vegas odds and these polling numbers, my guess is San Diego, despite the higher usage, comes out ever-so-slightly ahead. But I think Denver is
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken | Vegas ML* | Vegas Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REDSKINS | Buccaneers | 26.10% | 290 | 74.36 |
| CHARGERS | Raiders | 21.70% | 600 | 85.71 |
| Broncos | RAMS | 12.40% | 450 | 81.82 |
| Steelers | TITANS | 12.30% | 240 | 70.59 |
| SAINTS | Bengals | 10.30% | 310 | 75.61 |
| DOLPHINS | Bills | 7.40% | 230 | 69.70 |
| 49ers | GIANTS | 2.90% | 185 | 64.91 |
| BEARS | Vikings | 2.30% | 160 | 61.54 |
| BROWNS | Texans | 1.70% | 165 | 62.26 |
| PACKERS | Eagles | 1.70% | 245 | 71.01 |
*Average of the Vegas moneylines
From the Vegas numbers and polling data, the Chargers and Broncos are the easy top picks, though it's worth counting up the number of remaining survivors in your pool that have used them to get a more customized reading. If you've used both, Vegas likes the Saints and Redskins next (Washington's higher usage vs. the Packers lower percentage to win actually makes them close.)
My Picks
1. Denver Broncos
If you were to do the math based on Vegas odds and these polling numbers, my guess is San Diego, despite the higher usage, comes out ever-so-slightly ahead. But I think Denver is just as likely to win as the Chargers, so I'd take the Broncos if I had them available. I give the Broncos an 84 percent chance to win this game.
2. San Diego Chargers
They should handle Oakland at home, especially after the awful loss to Miami and the bye week, but the Raiders typically play the Chargers tough, and I'd rather not face a desperate, winless team. I give the Chargers an 84 percent chance to win this game.
3. New Orleans Saints
The Bengals look broken on both sides of the ball, and Andy Dalton and the offensive line were especially inept last Thursday. I expect them to bounce back to an extent 10 days later, but New Orleans is not an easy place to get a win. I give the Saints a 75 percent chance to win this game.
4. Washington Redskins
The Redskins are a risky survivor pick, but I like that Robert Griffin is back, and the Buccaneers are one of the worst teams in the league, especially on defense. I give the Redskins a 75 percent chance to win this game.
5. Green Bay Packers
I can't imagine too many people having them available, and the Eagles are not a team you want to mess with. But the game's at Lambeau, Mark Sanchez, who looked great at home against a weak Carolina defense, is still picking up the offense, and Aaron Rodgers should light up Philly's defense. I give the Packers a 70 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins are a legitimate team, but the Bills defense is good, and Miami is missing its starting left tackle.
Pittsburgh Steelers: The Titans are one of the worst coached teams in the league, and have a rookie quarterback, but Pittsburgh's defense is terrible, and they're on the road.
San Francisco 49ers: They should be able to handle the Giants, but this is an early road game on the East Coast, and New York's offense runs a lot more smoothly with Rashad Jennings in the lineup.
