This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken | Vegas ML* | Vegas Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAMS | Raiders | 35.60% | 275 | 73.33 |
| COLTS | Redskins | 22.80% | 487.5 | 82.98 |
| LIONS | Bears | 13.50% | 290 | 74.36 |
| TEXANS | Titans | 8.80% | 245 | 71.01 |
| Giants | JAGUARS | 5.30% | 135 | 57.45 |
| DOLPHINS | Jets | 5.20% | 255 | 71.83 |
| Bengals | BUCCANEERS | 3.60% | 177.5 | 63.96 |
| RAVENS | Chargers | 1.30% | 230 | 69.70 |
| Cardinals | FALCONS | 1.00% | 125 | 55.56 |
| COWBOYS | Eagles | 0.70% | 160 | 61.54 |
| STEELERS | Saints | 0.70% | 185 | 64.91 |
| BILLS | Browns | 0.30% | 135 | 57.45 |
*Average of the Vegas moneylines
One team jumps out as the easy choice based on the Vegas and polling numbers: the Colts. But we're at the stage where you need to count the entries that used Indy and figure out for yourself how heavily they're likely to be used in your pool. For example, in my pool (in which you're allowed to re-buy for the first six weeks), there are four of us left, and three, including me have the Colts available. I'm nearly positive two of them will take the Colts. The question for me is whether to take Indy, hoping the non-Colts entry loses, or to go elsewhere and root against Indy, knowing I'll at least double my equity should Indy go down and possibly win the whole thing. I won't bore
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken | Vegas ML* | Vegas Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAMS | Raiders | 35.60% | 275 | 73.33 |
| COLTS | Redskins | 22.80% | 487.5 | 82.98 |
| LIONS | Bears | 13.50% | 290 | 74.36 |
| TEXANS | Titans | 8.80% | 245 | 71.01 |
| Giants | JAGUARS | 5.30% | 135 | 57.45 |
| DOLPHINS | Jets | 5.20% | 255 | 71.83 |
| Bengals | BUCCANEERS | 3.60% | 177.5 | 63.96 |
| RAVENS | Chargers | 1.30% | 230 | 69.70 |
| Cardinals | FALCONS | 1.00% | 125 | 55.56 |
| COWBOYS | Eagles | 0.70% | 160 | 61.54 |
| STEELERS | Saints | 0.70% | 185 | 64.91 |
| BILLS | Browns | 0.30% | 135 | 57.45 |
*Average of the Vegas moneylines
One team jumps out as the easy choice based on the Vegas and polling numbers: the Colts. But we're at the stage where you need to count the entries that used Indy and figure out for yourself how heavily they're likely to be used in your pool. For example, in my pool (in which you're allowed to re-buy for the first six weeks), there are four of us left, and three, including me have the Colts available. I'm nearly positive two of them will take the Colts. The question for me is whether to take Indy, hoping the non-Colts entry loses, or to go elsewhere and root against Indy, knowing I'll at least double my equity should Indy go down and possibly win the whole thing. I won't bore you with that math here (because the situation is unique to me), but I will have to do it between now and Sunday.
Assuming you've used the Colts, and your pool hews largely to the polling data above, the Rams, Lions, Texans, Dolphins and Ravens are the key options.
My Picks
1. Indianapolis Colts
If you have them available, and the numbers above represent the likely distribution in your pool, they're the best bang for your buck this week. That doesn't mean they're a lock by any means - Vegas gives the Redskins a 17-percent chance to win, and there's a risk Alfred Morris does to them what Jonas Gray did a couple weeks ago. Still, at home and facing a weak pass defense, the Colts should win. I give them an 82 percent chance to win this game.
2. Detroit Lions
I'm not sure I'd take them over the Rams straight up, but based on the polling data there are far fewer people likely to be on Detroit, and it's close enough for that to be the tiebreak. Matt Stafford and Jim Caldwell are an awful duo on which to rely - especially as your equity is likely to be significant at this point in the year - but the defense is sound, and the Bears are inconsistent on offense and weak defensively. I give the Lions a 75 percent chance to win this game.
3. St. Louis Rams
The Rams are worse than the Lions, and I wouldn't touch this were the Raiders still winless. But now that Oakland's gotten that out of the way, I could see this being an incredibly half-assed 10 days of "preparation" leading up to a road game in a dome. I give the Rams a 77 percent chance to win this game.
4. Houston Texans
This is more a bet against the Titans than it is on the Texans. Tennessee's best bet is to strike down field against a beatable secondary, but the Texans offense should gain some stablility with a poor, but semi-competent veteran under center. I give the Texans a 71 percent chance to win this game.
5. Baltimore Ravens
The Chargers scare me in theory - I've seen Philip Rivers play like a Pro Bowler in games this year, and the Ravens are without their top cover corner. But the Chargers were lucky to escape at home against the Rams last week, and the defense isn't good. Meanwhile the Ravens have been a strong team all year. I give Baltimore a 70 percent chance to win this game.
6. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are so much better than the Jets, you could arguably make them No. 2 on this list, but I hate the spot here - a national road game against a hated division rival that was just embarrassed on national TV last week. Geno Smith keeps this one out of the "Notable Omissions" category, but I'm not using it if I can help it. I give the Dolphins a 70 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions
New York Giants - I think they might roll over Jacksonville, but they've lost six games in a row, and they're on the road.
Pittsburgh Steelers - I like fading the Saints on the road, but the Steelers defense is bad, and this could turn into a shootout where whoever has the ball last wins.
Cincinnati Bengals - They've played better of late, but the Bucs defense looks like it might have turned a corner, and if that's the case, Andy Dalton can be very dangerous.
