This article is part of our Exploiting the Matchups series.
There are many things to be thankful for this week -- football, food and family jump to mind first -- and I'm sure many of you reading this will also be thankful when I keep it short and sweet after consecutive weeks of rambling stories about my home league.
At this point of the season the playoffs are right around the corner for most leagues, and with only one or two more weeks to determine who's in and who's out, you should consider yourself fortunate if you even still have something for which to play. Be thankful for that on Turkey Day in a pivotal Week 13 for many real and fantasy teams. And for those who have no shot, enjoy the food and be thankful for a stress-free weekend. Cheer on your real team, play the spoiler in fantasy, lick your wound and eat more pie.
As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit column. Upgrades are players you wouldn't consistently start (or who have consistently underachieved), while those downgraded generally are lineup mainstays. The designations are simply a guide to make those close calls easier.
UPGRADE
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill, MIA at NYJ
The Jets have limited one QB all season to less than two touchdowns. Tannehill has averaged two per game over his last eight and is coming off a trip to Denver that saw him produce four.
Eli Manning, NYG at JAC
He has this Odell Beckham Jr. guy. Maybe you've heard of him. He's pretty good. Oh, and Jacksonville.
Mark Sanchez, PHI at DAL
Three starts, three 300-yard games. Sanchez is going to turn it over. That's just what he does. But in a pivotal divisional game he's going to have to sling it plenty and has the weapons to keep piling up the yards and find a score or two.
Zach Mettenberger, TEN at HOU
Mettenberger has at least 260 yards and two touchdowns in three of his four career starts, one of which was against a Texans team in which he did major garbage-time damage. A big, tough-in-the-pocket gunslinger who can make every throw with a strong arm, he should again take advantage of the 31st-ranked Houston pass D.
Running Back
C.J. Anderson, DEN at KC
In three games since taking over for Ronnie Hillman, the compact Anderson has been an absolute yardage machine, piling up 473 yards. He's added two TD to his haul while averaging 5.8 YPC. Expect him to make mincemeat of a Chiefs defense giving up a league-high 5.0 YPC.
Marshawn Lynch, SEA at SF
Counting the playoffs, Lynch has bullied the 49ers in his last six meetings. He's rushed for 100-plus four times with the other two resulting in 98 and 72 yards and scored in all but one of those contests with eight total touchdowns. Short week, bad back. Yeah, yeah. Bad blood wins.
Denard Robinson, JAC vs. NYG
Robinson struggled mightily to get going on the ground versus Indy last week, but the Giants have the league's worst run defense to get him back on track. Even in the subpar effort, Robinson produced 72 total yards with a season-best 47 receiving yards, proving he's not a one-dimensional threat.
Tre Mason, STL vs. OAK
Mason has at least 65 total yards in four of his last five games and managed that production against a brutal slate that included Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona and Denver. Now he gets an Oakland D that has allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing tailbacks.
Isaiah Crowell, CLE at BUF
Over their last five games the Bills have allowed 677 yards rushing at 5.2 YPC and all five of the rushing scores they've given up this entire season. So much for that formidable front four stuffing the run. Crowell and his 5.0 YPC and seven scores on 90 rushes this year will keep them stressed on the ground.
Jonas Gray, LeGarrette Blount, NE at GB
Six offensive lineman, ball control offense, two-headed monster in the backfield. Gray and Blount have combined for 279 yards and six touchdowns on 49 carries the last two weeks. The best way to beat Green Bay is to wear out a defense susceptible to the run and keep Rodgers off the field. Blount has rested all year and Gray just got a week off, so those are some big, fresh legs entering the frozen tundra.
Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen, SD at BAL
Not only will the Chargers be forced to throw it more against the Ravens' fifth-ranked run defense, but Allen has also been steadily improving since Week 8. He's seen 43 targets in that span, is coming off his first 100-yard effort of the season and now he gets the defense that's allowed the most yards to opposing wideouts this year.
Anquan Boldin, SF vs. SEA
Boldin has at least 90 yards and a touchdown in four of the last six games and has seen 59 total targets in that span. The matchup is rough this week, but he's one of a few receivers league wide that coverage cannot completely shut down. That body and those hands are simply too strong and competitive. He's basically an old, slow Dez Bryant.
Justin Hunter, TEN at HOU
In two of Zach Mettenberger's four starts, Hunter has seen 10 targets and scored in both games, including one against Houston. He's tied for the team lead in targets in that stretch and now brings his tremendous athleticism to a Texans defense that has been the league's most fantasy friendly to wide receivers.
Charles Johnson, MIN vs. CAR
Only the Eagles have allowed more than the 15 passing scores Carolina has given up to wideouts. In his last two contests Johnson has used his 4.3-speed and big, strong frame to command 18 combined targets, 139 yards, a touchdown and a 2-point conversion. He's a sneaky play for any receiver-strapped teams.
Jarvis Landry, MIA at NYJ
Three touchdowns in his last two games and now the dynamic rookie gets to face a Jets defense that's given up the most passing scores in the league. While the blazing speed of Mike Wallace keeps Gang Green's secondary preoccupied, Landry will be killing them underneath.
Tight End
Delanie Walker, TEN at HOU
The Texans have allowed just three touchdowns all season to tight ends, but one of those was to Walker in Mettenberger's first start. Houston's stinginess to tight ends is also really more of a reflection of the caliber it's faced at the position. Walker is coming off a 155-yard performance and is primed to stay hot as the Titans keep slinging it plenty.
Zach Ertz, PHI at DAL
Ertz has six targets and four catches in each of the last two games and is starting to develop a rapport with Sanchez. He'd be a risky start given that he's not scored since Week 6 or topped 55 yards since Week 2, but Dallas has allowed the most catches to tight ends in the league and Ertz is still a legitimate talent. Just food for thought on a day when food occupies most thoughts.
DOWNGRADE
Quarterback
Matt Ryan, ATL vs. AZ
Arizona has allowed only two passing scores in its last three contests and is playing lights out defensively as it tries to keep a highly limited offense in games. Ryan is going to pay the price of that defensive intensity, as he's been under siege and underwhelming all season.
Cam Newton, CAR at MIN
Newton is third in sacks taken (32), and Minnesota is tied for fourth in sacks (31). Moreover, the Vikes just limited Aaron Rodgers to 209 yards in a competitive game. Bye week rest or not, Newton will struggle.
Running Back
Ryan Mathews, SD at BAL
Mathews has been terrific in two games since returning from a knee injury, barreling for 175 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries (6.3 YPC). That success figures to come to a screeching halt in a 1 p.m. EST kickoff against a Baltimore defense that has allowed the fewest points to fantasy running backs.
Steven Jackson, ATL vs. AZ
Jackson has been a steady flex option in recent weeks with three of his last four games providing at least 50 total yards and a touchdown. But if Marshawn Lynch can't run on Arizona's third-ranked run defense in Seattle, you'll want no part of old man Jackson this week.
Frank Gore, SF vs. SEA
Gore could muster just 36 yards versus the Redskins on 13 carries (2.8 YPC) and has fumbled in consecutive games. He's simply too inconsistent to trust, and with Seattle's sixth-ranked run defense coming to town he's more likely than not to struggle, rivalry or no rivalry. His old legs simply don't have the juice any more.
Wide Receiver
Mike Evans, TB vs. CIN
Evans averages 17.2 yards per catch. The Bengals are only giving up 10.5 YPC to wideouts, however, good for second fewest in the league. They've also allowed the second fewest total yards and touchdowns to receivers and haven't given up a score or more than 60 yards to an opposing No. 1 target in three weeks.
DeSean Jackson, WAS at IND
Jackson has five 100-yard games on the season, including Colt McCoy's only previous start. But he's faced few defenses even close to as stingy to wide receivers as Indianapolis. Only the versatile and truly elite talents of Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham Jr. have topped 100 yards on Vontae Davis and the Colts D.
Sammy Watkins, BUF vs. CLE
Maybe it's an ailing groin, maybe it's just the "rookie wall" but whatever has Watkins in a major slump (97 total yards in three weeks), it's simply extra incentive to sit him versus Cleveland. The rest of that incentive, of course, is the blanket coverage Joe Haden will throw his way.
Tight End
Jason Witten, DAL vs. PHI
Witten has scored in three of his last four and four of six, but the Eagles have allowed just one touchdown to a tight end all season, fewest in the league. For a player averaging barely 40 yards per game, that could spell a quiet Thanksgiving.
