This article is part of our Exploiting the Matchups series.
A season can change on one play. Even when those singular plays don't go your way, this is why I love fantasy football. Of course, that one play last week was particularly painful. The play should have been routine. It should have been a touchdown. In my favorite home league I had a four-game winning streak snapped because Jordy Nelson let a would-be 94-yard touchdown slip through his fingers. That play completely flipped the Super Bowl matchup in this league, but of course that wasn't realized until Monday Night Football.
When Mark Ingram punched in a "meaningless" 15-yard run with less than two minutes to go that put me within one long Aaron Rodgers TD pass of making the championship. When Alshon Jeffery snagged a score of his own at the 30-second mark, the other semifinal matchup switched hands with the loser also sitting one Nelson catch-and-run score out of the final weekend. While Nelson's butter fingers turned out to be the heartbreaking difference in both these fantasy playoff matchups, it was the lifelong Packer fan in me that truly took a beating from it, given it's implications in a loss that likely costs Green Bay the top seed in the NFC.
One play kept me from the Super Bowl, and as it turns out, may keep my beloved real life team out as well (good luck in Seattle, Jordy).
It's not all bad for me, though. After a dreadful draft chock full of busts put me in a 1-5 hole, early season Odell Beckham and Mike Evans pick-ups plus a November grab of C.J. Anderson have me poised to demolish a team carried to a championship by DeMarco Murray. And btw, that team snuck into the final bout on that same last-minute Jeffery touchdown because their only rostered quarterback is (soon to be was) Jay Cutler. Funny how things work out.
Fantasy seasons are littered with dozens of "one plays" in every league out there -- the game-changers that shape the landscape of winners and losers. That too is what makes the sport so special in reality. Those individual plays also impact the future of the sport we love in more ways than can be counted in one fantasy season. They're unpredictable, unavoidable and underappreciated for the way they alter the fabric of our worlds, real and fantasy (a.k.a. also very real; and painful as noted above).
Since these plays cannot be foreseen, I say start the players that feel the most comfortable. Don't overthink, don't sweat, don't flip flop. If you've gotten this far you're clued into players recently trending up or down, defenses that resemble a carcass on the side of the road being picked over by vultures (looking at you Tennessee, Washington, Chicago) and, perhaps most important, who is getting the football. In a championship week opportunity is akin to talent. If someone suddenly has dramatically more of it than usual you've got to consider him an option. Of course, the final calls need to come down to your gut. Personally, my gut says ride the names that got you here and for any rotated spot(s), plug in those who will get the ball against bad defenses. It's a one-week season after all, and if you're looking for one play to make or break it, chances are best it's coming against a defense that hasn't got the goods to stop it.
As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit column. Upgrades are players you wouldn't consistently start (or who have consistently underachieved), while those downgraded generally are lineup mainstays. The designations are simply a guide to make those close calls easier.
UPGRADE
Quarterback
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. KC
No, typically you would not need to "upgrade" a quarterback with 4,415 yards through 14 games. In Roethlisberger's case, though, he's been somewhat Jekyll and Hyde this year and could possibly have been drafted to back up a perennial top-5 quarterback. Ignore all that. He's thrown for 2,241 yards and 20 touchdowns in six home games. I'd start him over Peyton Manning this week.
Matthew Stafford, DET at CHI
Stafford has just 19 touchdown passes this season and only eight in six games since Calvin Johnson returned to the lineup. But just in time for a pivotal fantasy playoff matchup he draws a Bears defense he torched for 390 and two TD on Thanksgiving, and one which has allowed a league-high 33 aerial scores this year.
Mark Sanchez, PHI at WAS
In their last five games, the Skins have now allowed a ridiculous nine passing touchdowns of at least 30 yards and let Eli Manning, Shaun Hill and Josh McCown combine for 751 yards and seven TD through the air. But the real sell here: even Colin Kaepernick threw for more than 250 yards and a score on Washington.
Alex Smith, KC at PIT
The Steelers have scored at least 30 points in five of six home games, so chances are Smith will throw plenty to keep up with Big Ben and Co. Smith is coming off consecutive games with more than 290 yards passing and now faces a D that's allowed multiple TD tosses in eight straight games, with five of those QB topping 300 yards.
Running Back
Mark Ingram, NO vs. ATL
The Falcons have allowed three running backs to hit them for two touchdowns in their last four games. As it turns out, Ingram accomplished that exact feat in Week 1. Having whetted his taste for the end zone again last week for the first time since October, Ingram will be back for seconds.
Fred Jackson, BUF at OAK
Jackson has at least 72 total yards or a touchdown in four straight games and has caught at least three balls in every contest he's suited up for since Week 2. The Raiders' sloppy defense has allowed a receiving score of at least 30 yards to a running back in four of six games. Jackson's streaks should be safe.
Joseph Randle, DAL vs. IND
If, and ONLY if Murray sits, can Randle be started. If that is the case, though, a top-10 fantasy running back week would not be surprising. Randle has averaged a whopping 7.0 YPC with two touchdowns on his 34 totes. Behind the best offensive line in football and against a soft Colts run D his fresh legs could make the season's most timely spot start.
Toby Gerhart, JAC vs. TEN
Yes, Tennessee's run defense is so bad you can even flex Gerhart this week. Even in a "good" game last week for their D, the Titans let the Chris' for Gang Green rush for 80 yards and a score. Gerhart had 63 total yards against Baltimore, the stingiest defense to fantasy tailbacks. One of the friendliest this year should provide a late-season surprise from this bruising bust.
Daniel Herron, IND at DAL
Over their last seven games, the Cowboys have allowed 11 touchdowns to running backs, with at least one in every game. That bodes well for Herron to raise his ceiling. He's gotten the yards with at least 70 total in four straight. A score would make him a terrific start.
Wide Receiver
Roddy White, ATL at NO
White has quietly been in double figures in fantasy points in seven of 12 games this season and has at least 96 yards or a score in five straight games. Against a Saints defense that's allowed 18 TD to opposing wideouts, including five in the last three weeks, White will stay productive with or without Julio Jones in the lineup.
Marques Colston, NO vs. ATL
Colston has scored in three of four contests with at least 7.2 fantasy points in all four (standard scoring). An Atlanta D that's allowed the most yards to receivers in the league should keep him hot.
DeSean Jackson, WAS vs. PHI
Jackson led Washington with eight targets last week, but nursing a thigh injury, that translated to very little. Facing his former squad -- one he burned for 117 yards and a score in Week 3 -- should give plenty of juice to his legs. With the Eagles leading the league in TD allowed to wideouts, expect a bounce back.
DeAndre Hopkins, HOU vs. BAL
Sure, the QB situation is about as uninviting as it comes. Still, Hopkins managed 77 yards last week, snagging balls mostly from Tom Savage. At least whoever is under center this Sunday will have started an NFL game before. And Baltimore remains the most fantasy-friendly defense to receivers.
Jordan Matthews, PHI at WAS
Matthews had just one target and put up the first goose egg of his young career last week. How do you bounce back from that you say? Why, you play the Redskins, of course. After 17 yards in Week 2, Matthews went off for eight grabs and two TD in his first meeting with the Skins the next Sunday. And Washington's pass defense has regressed mightily since. See Sanchez, Mark.
Tight End
Coby Fleener/Dwayne Allen, IND at DAL
Andrew Luck's security blankets are especially valuable in PPR leagues this week. The Cowboys have allowed the most receptions, second most yards and fourth most TD to tight ends. This Indy duo has combined for nearly 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns, and they're certainly not done yet.
Travis Kelce, KC at PIT
Pittsburgh has given up a score to a tight end in six of its last seven games. Aside from Jimmy Graham, Kelce is the best tight end the Steelers will have faced since that stretch began.
DOWNGRADE
Quarterback
Philip Rivers, SD vs. SF
In his last six games, Rivers has thrown more interceptions (eight) than touchdowns (seven), and four of those performances netted less than 235 passing yards. Now he will be without Keenan Allen (collarbone) and Ryan Mathews (ankle) AND have to face the 49ers' third-ranked pass defense.
Running Back
Matt Forte, CHI vs. DET
Chicago didn't even try to run on Detroit's top-ranked ground defense when they met on Thanksgiving (just five carries for Forte). With Jimmy Clausen under center and the Lions poised to make a push for the NFC's top seed, another down game seems imminent for the motor of the Bears offense.
Arian Foster, HOU vs. BAL
The Ravens have given up only six TD to tailbacks this year, and when they play Houston it will have been 100 days since they last gave up 100-plus total yards to a running back, whose name happens to be Le'Veon Bell. With a new starting QB and a hip injury added to his list of ailments, Foster is staring in the face of a rough week.
LeSean McCoy, PHI at WAS
McCoy will certainly be motivated in this one after he turned in one of the worst performances of his career versus Washington in Week 3 (19 carries for 22 yards, 1.2 YPC). But versus the Skins' top-10 run defense, one which has given up only seven TD all year to tailbacks, don't expect McCoy to taste that sweet revenge.
Wide Receiver
Josh Gordon, CLE at CAR
The opponent does not matter. Given the pathetic quarterback play for Cleveland the last four weeks, simply say "no thank you" to any Browns targets.
Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders, DEN at CIN
In their last four games, both Thomas and Sanders have produced less than 100 yards three times. In Sanders' case he's even failed to score in that stretch. Going against a Bengals defense that has given up the second-fewest touchdowns and yards to wideouts does not figure to be an improvement for either stud.
Alshon Jeffery, CHI vs. DET
Jeffery is rocking a five-game scoring streak heading into a brutal matchup that is likely to put an end to it. Whether Clausen taking over for Jay Cutler helps or hurts the passing attack, it's awfully tough to see Jeffery coming anywhere close to the nine grabs and two TD he posted on Detroit in their first go round. Especially with no Brandon Marshall (ribs) drawing away coverage.
Tight End
Jimmy Graham, NO vs. ATL
Of course you're not benching Graham, especially when New Orleans is playing for the playoffs. But expectations need to be lowered. Graham hasn't scored in three straight, including a catchless outing, has less than 50 yards in four of his last five and faces a Falcons D that's been surprisingly stingy to tight ends -- just two TD this year.
