Yahoo DFS Football: Week 1 Picks

Yahoo DFS Football: Week 1 Picks

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

Before jumping in headfirst into the whirlwind of fun that is Yahoo DFS football, be sure to differentiate from the variety of games offered. Since Head-to-Heads, 50/50s and Double-Ups pay nearly half of entrants, your best bet to cashing is to target players with higher floors. Think heavily targeted No. 1 WRs, RBs who get the bulk of a team's carries and upper-echelon QBs in matchups with a tight Vegas point spread and a high total. Tournaments/Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs) require a bit more of your inner contrarian -- target offensive players with higher ceilings in advantageous matchups. Huge point totals can come from the most unpredictable of places -- the most obvious plays are not always the right ones. Although previous week's performances should be noted, each new week of action should be considered its own season. Don't chase last week's stats!

H2H, 50/50s and DOUBLE-UPS

Quarterback

Matt Ryan (ATL, $46) - Ryan should be well worth his price this week despite taking up nearly a quarter of the $200 budget. The highest projected point total of Week 1 (55.5), this Monday night matchup is expected to be a shootout. Ryan's Week 1 opponent, the Eagles, allowed 30 touchdowns through the air last year and ranked 31st in passing YPG (Falcons ranked last). Ryan was seventh among quarterbacks last season with 18.5 Y! FPPG last season and was mighty reliable, throwing for 250 or more yards in 12-of-16 games. With a healthy Julio Jones to target in this high-scoring affair, make sure to give Ryan fair consideration.

Running Back

Eddie Lacy (GB, $28) - Lacy will be highly owned in Double-Ups and 50/50s, and for good reason -- he's a top three overall running back in season-long leagues, priced reasonably in Week 1 as the eighth-most expensive running back. With deep threat Jordy Nelson out for the year and Randall Cobb dinged up, the Packers' gameplan this week may revolve around shoving Lacy down the Bears' throats, early and often. Lacy has at least one touchdown in each of four career games against the Bears and is a good bet to find pay dirt against them in the season opener. No slouch in the passing game either, Lacy caught 42 targets last year (receptions are worth half a point).

Doug Martin (TB, $18) -
A short-term memory can be vital to DFS success. Forget that Martin burned you as an early round draft pick the last two years. Despite running behind a porous offensive line and with a rookie QB, "Don't-Call-Me-Muscle-Hamster" is healthy and looking svelte, dropping 15 pounds in the offseason. The former first-round pick ran for 1,454 yards and 11 touchdowns as a rookie and is ready to rekindle that magic. The Titans' run defense was horrid last year, allowing 137 yards and a touchdown per game to running backs. Charles Sims is the superior pass-catcher, but Martin's Week 1 matchup and bargain price makes him a near-must in Double-Ups and 50/50s.

Wide Receiver

Julio Jones (ATL, $39) - Jones is the priciest wideout this week but will be widely owned based on his potential for a 150-yard, multi-TD performance in the week's highest projected point total. Despite only six touchdowns last season, Jones ranked third in the NFL in receiving yards (1,593) and receptions (104). He was a DFS monster in Weeks 13 and 14, collecting 448 yards on 21 catches and two touchdowns. Pairing Jones up with Ryan for a Monday Night Football bonanza should be a recipe for success.

Jordan Matthews (PHI, $22) -
With Jeremy Maclin out of the picture, Matthews is primed for a big year and will be heavily targeted in Chip Kelly's up-tempo offense. The affordable Week 1 price will make him a slam-dunk selection in lineups in what is expected a shootout (three-point spread, 55-point total). Matthews caught 67 balls as a rookie and had three games of 100 receiving yards and a touchdown, including a 20.5 fantasy point performance (8 receptions, 105 yards, 1 touchdown) in Week 17 against the Giants. There are better spots to go against the grain this week.

John Brown (ARI, $17) -
Brown is the riser among wideouts this preseason, shooting up draft boards as high as the fifth round in recent weeks. Inconsistent deep threat Michael Floyd dislocated three fingers in practice last month and is questionable for the Cardinals' Week 1 tilt with the Saints. Veteran receiver Larry Fitzgerald is aging before our eyes, so it's Brown who is expected to be the Cardinals' top receiver. Brown is lightning fast (4.34 40) and should find plenty of open space against a Saints' secondary that will be without cornerback Keenan Lewis. He will be a popular play in GPPs, as well.

Tight End

Greg Olsen (CAR, $17) - One of the league's most consistent tight ends, Olsen was one of only two at his position to surpass 1,000 receiving yards and ranked third in receptions (84) behind Martellus Bennett and Jimmy Graham. Already considered quarterback Cam Newton's security blanket, Olsen will be even more relied upon with stud receiver Kelvin Benjamin out for the season. Olsen has scored more than six touchdowns just once in his eight-year career but could set a career high in red-zone grabs as the focal point of the Panthers' offense. An opening season matchup against the Jaguars' subpar defense is a good place for the 6-foot-5, 250-pounder to start.

Defense/Special Teams

New York Jets ($10) - The Jets were one of only three teams without a defensive touchdown last year and their recent string of bad luck with injuries will keep them off the DFS radar for Week 1. Regardless, they have strong set of linemen that will put pressure on old-man Josh McCown (11:14 TD:INT ratio last year). Playing at home with the week's lowest projected point total (40), the Jets are worth your roster spot at their minimum Y! salary.

Honorable Mentions:
Sam Bradford (PHI, $41), Jeremy Hill (CIN, $28), Eddie Royal (CHI, $19), Owen Daniels (DEN, $14)

TOURNAMENTS (GPP -- GUARANTEED PRIZE POOL)

Kirk Cousins (WAS, $20) - Sometimes we take what the game gives us. It's not an ideal matchup for Cousins against a tough Miami defense, but a quarterback at a 50 percent discount off the top options allows for plenty of flexibility with upper-crust running backs and wide receivers. GPPs are the place to take a chance on a cheap QB (i.e., 2014 Week 13 Ryan Fitzpatrick). Cousins averaged 390 passing yards in two road starts (at PHI, at ARI). Count on at least one interception (-1) and consider anything above 250 passing yards and one touchdown as gravy on the biscuits. Unproven Tyrod Taylor (BUF, $20) is the cheap quarterback on everyone's radar this week, but I'll take "Backups Better than RG3 for $20, Alex."

Darren McFadden (DAL, $11) -
Wait, McFadden? The same guy who can't stay healthy and averaged 3.3 YPC over the last three seasons? The backfield situation is far from settled, but the Cowboys' superb offensive line will provide runners with gaping holes. McFadden is healthy for now and can still turn on the jets in open space and take it to the house. The 51-point projection is one of the highest of the weekend as the Cowboys tango with the division-rival Giants on primetime Sunday night. Large-entry GPPs are won by sticking your neck out in spots. With three other backs in the mix on the Dallas roster, McFadden owners likely will be on Low-Percentage Island this week. It isn't a selection for the faint of heart, but who better to win with than the NFL's least popular fantasy player?

Allen Hurns (JAX, $15) -
The undrafted wideout caught daily fantasy folks by storm in the season opener last year, hauling in two touchdowns on four receptions and 110 yards (25 Y! FPP). Can Week 1 lightning strike twice? With Marqise Lee always nursing an injury and Allen Robinson likely drawing well-deserved double-coverage, Hurns is a viable, low-percentage value play. He has a good rapport with QB Blake Bortles, and the Jags might surprise us in the home opener against the Panthers and keep this one close. If you're looking for a low-percentage pivot in a big tourney like the NFL $1 Million Kickoff, give Leonard Hankerson (ATL, $10) a whirl if Roddy White is on track to sit this one out.

Honorable Mentions:
Matthew Stafford (DET, $32), Jonathan Stewart (CAR, $23), Isaiah Crowell (CLE, $14), Jarvis Landry (MIA, $22), Mike Wallace (MIN, $21), Larry Donnell (NYG, $14)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Vlad Sedler plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: rotogutguy, DraftKings: rotogut, Yahoo: V_Sedler.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Vlad Sedler
Vlad Sedler covers baseball and football for RotoWire. He is a veteran NFBC player and CDM Hall of Famer, winning the Football Super Challenge in 2013. A native Angeleno, Vlad loves the Dodgers and Kings and is quite possibly the world's only Packers/Raiders fan. You can follow him @RotoGut.
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