This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at Week 4's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLTS | Jaguars | 26.70% | 450 | 81.82% | 4.85 |
| CHARGERS | Browns | 16.80% | 360 | 78.26% | 3.65 |
| SEAHAWKS | Lions | 14.60% | 487.5 | 82.98% | 2.49 |
| CARDINALS | Rams | 10.70% | 275 | 73.33% | 2.85 |
| Packers | 49ERS | 9.80% | 330 | 76.74% | 2.28 |
| FALCONS | Texans | 8.90% | 260 | 72.22% | 2.47 |
| BRONCOS | Vikings | 4.60% | 275 | 73.33% | 1.23 |
| BILLS | Giants | 1.90% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.59 |
| Raiders | BEARS | 1.70% | 145 | 59.18% | 0.69 |
| Panthers | BUCCANEERS | 1.30% | 155 | 60.78% | 0.51 |
| BENGALS | Chiefs | 0.80% | 185 | 64.91% | 0.28 |
| Ravens | STEELERS | 0.70% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.29 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
According to Vegas, the Seahawks are again the clear play, given they're the biggest favorite on the board and only 15 percent of people are on them. But if you used Seattle last week, it's a closer call between the next biggest favorite, the Colts, and the Chargers and Packers.
My Picks
1. Seattle Seahawks
The 0-3 Lions are desperate animals, and they have the playmakers to give the Seahawks a fight. But the Seahawks are so tough at home, are desperate themselves at 1-2, and their defense should force Matthew Stafford into some mistakes. I give Seattle an 82 percent chance to win this game.
2. Indianapolis Colts
They're the most owned team on
Let's take a look at Week 4's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLTS | Jaguars | 26.70% | 450 | 81.82% | 4.85 |
| CHARGERS | Browns | 16.80% | 360 | 78.26% | 3.65 |
| SEAHAWKS | Lions | 14.60% | 487.5 | 82.98% | 2.49 |
| CARDINALS | Rams | 10.70% | 275 | 73.33% | 2.85 |
| Packers | 49ERS | 9.80% | 330 | 76.74% | 2.28 |
| FALCONS | Texans | 8.90% | 260 | 72.22% | 2.47 |
| BRONCOS | Vikings | 4.60% | 275 | 73.33% | 1.23 |
| BILLS | Giants | 1.90% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.59 |
| Raiders | BEARS | 1.70% | 145 | 59.18% | 0.69 |
| Panthers | BUCCANEERS | 1.30% | 155 | 60.78% | 0.51 |
| BENGALS | Chiefs | 0.80% | 185 | 64.91% | 0.28 |
| Ravens | STEELERS | 0.70% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.29 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
According to Vegas, the Seahawks are again the clear play, given they're the biggest favorite on the board and only 15 percent of people are on them. But if you used Seattle last week, it's a closer call between the next biggest favorite, the Colts, and the Chargers and Packers.
My Picks
1. Seattle Seahawks
The 0-3 Lions are desperate animals, and they have the playmakers to give the Seahawks a fight. But the Seahawks are so tough at home, are desperate themselves at 1-2, and their defense should force Matthew Stafford into some mistakes. I give Seattle an 82 percent chance to win this game.
2. Indianapolis Colts
They're the most owned team on the board, but 27 percent isn't huge, and they have an easy home matchup against one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. The biggest risk here is Chuck Pagano insisting on running the ball to Frank Gore and turning this into a physical contest. The Colts are a soft team and need to win with finesse. I give them an 82 percent chance to win this game.
3. Green Bay Packers
As bad as the 49ers looked last week, remember how good they looked in Week 1 against the Vikings? A one-game sample doesn't mean much, and I expect the Packers, who are far better at home, to meet at least some resistance here. That said, I don't think it's likely they'll lose the game. I give Green Bay a 78 percent chance to win this game.
4. San Diego Chargers
The Chargers have been mediocre so far this year, but the Browns' decision to start Josh McCown over last year's first-round pick is tantamount to raising the white flag. San Diego should get back on track at home against a weak opponent here. I give the Chargers a 78 percent chance to win this game.
5. Denver Broncos
The Vikings rebounded from a rough start in Week 1, but their passing game hasn't gotten going, and they're facing one of the top defenses in the league in one of its toughest venues. I give the Broncos a 75 percent chance to win this game.
6. Arizona Cardinals
They're off to a great start, while the Rams have looked bad two weeks in a row. St. Louis can get to the passer, and maybe this is the week Todd Gurley gets going, but it'll be a tall order for Nick Foles and that passing game to keep pace in Arizona. I give the Cardinals a 75 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Buffalo Bills - The Giants aren't a doormat, and the Bills' win over the Colts three weeks ago looks a lot less impressive now.
Atlanta Falcons - The Falcons are 3-0, but easily could be 1-2. Their defense is still a work in progress, and they're too reliant on one offensive weapon. Houston should compete with them.
