On Target: No Slowing Down Hopkins

On Target: No Slowing Down Hopkins

This article is part of our On Target series.

Three weeks in the books for the NFL and we're finally reaching the point of the season where we can reach real and lasting conclusions. Most teams should have played as an underdog and as a favorite, on the road and at a home. In football, it's always hard to isolate the reason why something is happening but as we get games played in more contexts, we can at least start to make more educated guesses. As usual, this week we'll take a look at the target leaders early on in the season and then analyze a few players who need to be analyzed a little deeper as a result of emerging trends. To the numbers! This following list is the NFL leaders in targets thus far, featuring some familiar and surprising names.

PLAYERTARGETSRECPCTYDSTDS
Julio Jones463473.94404
Julian Edelman423071.42792
Steve Smith402562.53492
Keenan Allen392974.43152
Demaryius Thomas382463.22681
DeAndre Hopkins382257.92533
Antonio Brown352982.94362
Emmanuel Sanders352262.92392
Jarvis Landry352468.62300
Calvin Johnson342058.81991
Brandon Marshall332369.72723
Michael Crabtree331854.51841
Amari Cooper312064.52901
Jordan Matthews302273.32311
Odell Beckham291965.52692
Cecil Shorts291655.2149
Three weeks in the books for the NFL and we're finally reaching the point of the season where we can reach real and lasting conclusions. Most teams should have played as an underdog and as a favorite, on the road and at a home. In football, it's always hard to isolate the reason why something is happening but as we get games played in more contexts, we can at least start to make more educated guesses. As usual, this week we'll take a look at the target leaders early on in the season and then analyze a few players who need to be analyzed a little deeper as a result of emerging trends. To the numbers! This following list is the NFL leaders in targets thus far, featuring some familiar and surprising names.

PLAYERTARGETSRECPCTYDSTDS
Julio Jones463473.94404
Julian Edelman423071.42792
Steve Smith402562.53492
Keenan Allen392974.43152
Demaryius Thomas382463.22681
DeAndre Hopkins382257.92533
Antonio Brown352982.94362
Emmanuel Sanders352262.92392
Jarvis Landry352468.62300
Calvin Johnson342058.81991
Brandon Marshall332369.72723
Michael Crabtree331854.51841
Amari Cooper312064.52901
Jordan Matthews302273.32311
Odell Beckham291965.52692
Cecil Shorts291655.21490
Larry Fitzgerald282382.13335
Rob Gronkowski281657.13084
Randall Cobb282071.42454
T.Y. Hilton281553.62270
Greg Olsen281553.62152
Nate Washington281346.42100
Jeremy Maclin271763.02501
Allen Robinson271140.72502
Pierre Garcon271763.01611
Jordan Reed261973.12411
Donte Moncrief261765.42003
A.J. Green251872.03353
Jason Witten252080.01702
Golden Tate251560.01610
Rishard Matthews231669.62623

Julio Jones

Not that you really need to know how great Julio Jones is, but he is clearly the No. 1 wide receiver in fantasy football this season. With Roddy White playing a ton of snaps but never being open/being 500 years old, Jones has seen 40 percent of his team's targets. Forty percent! No one in the NFL came close to that last year and the next closest this year is Antonio Brown who is at 36 percent of his team's targets. While a lot of historical analysis might suggest that Jones is due to regress in these target numbers, I don't really see it. Leonard Hankerson, Jacob Tamme, Roddy White… these are not impact players in the NFL. Jones is the Falcons best offensive player and that is the way they are deploying him. Without continuity in the ground game (rotating between Freeman and Coleman while healthy), I fully expect Jones and DeAndre Hopkins to lead the NFL in targets at season's end. With Jones preternatural ability to turn routine receptions into long gains, an 1800-yard, 16-TD season is fully within his reach.

Rishard Matthews

I'll say that this one came to me as a pleasant surprise. Matthews was a player I really liked coming out of college but he fits the profile of a player that an NFL coach would never really give a chance. He was a community college transfer to Nevada, accumulating a really solid senior season before being drafted by the Dolphins in the seventh round of the 2012 draft. He basically hasn't gotten to play since then but is now a firm part of the Dolphins offense. He has played more snaps on offense than any other skill position player outside of Jarvis Landry and Jordan Cameron and is clearly showing why he is more of an impact player than Jarvis Landry with three TDs in three weeks. Landry will continue to get seven-yard targets galore, but Matthews works better down the field and in the red zone. The Dolphins are not a good football team and they are pretty committed to ignoring Lamar Miller which will work in the favor of Matthews. He should still be on the wire in some leagues and freely available for trade in most. Additionally, when in a bad matchup for the Dolphins or Landry, I think he's a pretty solid DFS play with how often he has been on the field and the team's lack of a real deep threat with Davante Parker not allowed to flourish as of yet.

Houston Texans Wide Receivers

What is happening?! One of the teams with the worst quarterback play in the league is throwing more than any other team in the NFL. Without Arian Foster, the Texans are throwing as the first, second and third option on offense. Hopkins, Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington are all among the top 30 target-getters in the NFL while no other offense has more than two. The Texans have really narrowed down their passing game to these three players; now what do we do with that information? Unfortunately, I think nothing. These are not high-quality targets, especially when thrown at Washington and Shorts who just aren't game-breaking players. They're both fine as WR3/4 types in PPR leagues and as bargain values for daily fantasy, but they aren't players we should be rushing to acquire. What we can learn however, is just how much Hopkins is going to get the ball even when Foster comes back for Houston. When Foster is active again, the Texans will certainly run more but we've definitely learned that the staff isn't shy about letting Ryan Mallett throw the ball around the yard a little bit. There may still be a little bit of a window to buy on Hopkins which I would do immediately.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Davis Mattek
Davis Mattek has played DFS for a living for over a year and began in the fantasy sports industry in 2012. He is a member of the FSTA and FSWA.
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