Exploiting the Matchups: When will 2015 Begin?

It's Week 4 of the 2008 season, and just like you, I'm wondering when 2015 will begin. If Doc Brown can get us back to the future I'm sure all the young talent I stocked up on will actually begin producing (seriously, Brandin Cooks, you're better than that; and I can't even watch Jeremy Hill's tentative backfield dancing anymore).

It's always a challenge sorting out when to cut bait on young underachievers and even harder knowing when to sell high on past-their-primers balling out. I mean Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Smith should both land in the Hall. When their circumstances couldn't be much better AND they're delivering, what really constitutes selling high? These are the kind of questions that keep me up late writing a rambling introduction to a column that can't even "upgrade" either old-timer because they're just dominating so damn much.

Meanwhile, my brother, who managed to snag each of them late in my favorite keeper league, is endlessly pitching me some combination of them (or James Jones) for one or both of Mike Evans and Allen Robinson. Both second-year receivers will have ups and downs, but I see the potential in each to be a generational talent. So who's crazier? The guy rambling when he should be sleeping, who incidentally started 1-2 in this league, or the guy who buys stock in all the right vets but none of the right breakout candidates? Side note: he keeps trying to sell me on T.J. Yeldon, but I just don't see it, he's simply too stiff and slow.

Meanwhile, meanwhile my brother is calling to interrupt the rambling to practically beg me to claim Jonas Gray and handcuff Lamar Miller, simply so our league's resident crazy guy, a longtime friend of his, can't do so and then hold Gray over him if he somehow blows up. Sure, as a former Golden Domer who watched Gray closely in college I've always bought into his ability. But do I really want to drop my last running back (Antonio Andrews btw; anyone who can squeeze him on the bench should do so before he suits up again in Week 5)? And more importantly, do I want to lose my coveted spot atop the waiver wire?? Since the answer to both of those questions is "no" and I've really not offered any advice or provided any useful insight to this point of a now too long intro, I'll digress.

Unfortunately, knowing when to trade someone for whatever his value can return, good, bad or ugly, is never quite clear. It's the "art" part of fantasy football that often returns championships if orchestrated prudently. For what it's worth, I am buying Fitzgerald and Smith as season-long studs, with a guy like Jones nipping at their heels. Young bloods like Cooks, Evans and Robinson have their best days ahead of them -- for anyone 1-2 or worse, however, that means the leash is short and the GM paintbrush might need to start swinging soon.

Since I mostly focused on receivers this week, I'll blabber about some RBs in the next intro. But for now let's just say play guys against the Browns, Falcons and Chargers; so far it looks like they couldn't stop Billy Bob from "Varsity Blues" from ripping through their defenses. Player-wise, do what you must to nab Karlos Williams, don't pull the plug on Matt Jones and ride the man they call CJ2K, a.k.a. Chris Johnson, while he's hot. Remember, it's well before 2015.

As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit column. Upgrades are players you wouldn't consistently start (or who have consistently underachieved), while those downgraded generally are lineup mainstays with a bad opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

UPGRADE:

QUARTERBACK

Derek Carr, OAK at CHI

Until proven otherwise, Carr is a QB1 in my book for 12-team leagues. Chances are, of course, you have him as a backup to someone you drafted much higher. However, for those who lost Tony Romo (collarbone) or Ben Roethlisberger (knee), Carr has the weapons and arm talent to be a fixture in your lineup. And, of course, visiting a miserable, pathetic Bears team doesn't hurt either.

Joe Flacco, BAL at PIT

Flacco has never averaged 40 pass attempts per game in a season. But then again he's never had Marc Trestman calling his plays. He's averaging 42 so far and has topped 350 yards in consecutive games as a result. He's had his share of difficulties with Pittsburgh, but this is easily the worst Steelers secondary he's faced. AND he has the 36-year-old Smith on his side, a prizefighter of a wideout determined to go out with a bang.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ at MIA (in London)

In case you've missed it, Miami's defense has allowed Kirk Cousins, Blake Bortles and Tyrod Taylor to combine for 746 yards and six touchdowns through the air, and they've been getting progressively worse. Fitzpatrick, meanwhile, has quietly thrown for at least two touchdowns in every game and even if Eric Decker sits with a knee injury, he has the benefit of throwing to Brandon Marshall, still one of the best in the business.

RUNNING BACK

Melvin Gordon, SD vs. CLE

The Browns have now given up at least 140 rushing yards to the top two running backs of each team they've faced (and that includes the highly underwhelming duo of Dexter McCluster and Bishop Sankey). Although Danny Woodhead is certain to steal some of that action, this has Gordon coming out party written all over it.

Alfred Blue, HOU at ATL

Yours truly claimed that Chris Polk would steal the reins of the Texans backfield until Arian Foster's return. Blue laughed in my face with a romping of the Bucs last week. Now he must be licking his chops to face an Atlanta defense that's allowed a whopping 581 total yards and seven touchdowns to opposing tailbacks. The only thing that might derail a second huge week could be a triumphant Foster return.

Shane Vereen, NYG at BUF

With the Giants playing the entire game from ahead, Vereen's services were not necessary against the Redskins. The two games prior, however, he totaled 155 yards (122 receiving) as Big Blue's preferred threat out of the backfield. A balanced Bills team figures to put New York in catch up mode again, giving Vereen ample opportunities to take advantage of a group allowing five catches and 50 yards receiving per game to tailbacks this year.

WIDE RECEIVER

Rishard Matthews, MIA vs. NYJ (at London)

For anyone paying attention, this upgrade should not come as a surprise. Matthews has been tremendous as the thick-bodied complement to the jitterbug that is Jarvis Landry. Back-to-back 100-yard efforts, three touchdowns in three games, and now Landry, he of 35 targets in three contests, is primed to be locked down by Revis. Everything's coming up Millhouse! Err ... I mean Matthews.

Marvin Jones, CIN vs. KC

The Chiefs have allowed a whopping nine touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. Granted, they've faced Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning the last two weeks, but they also gave up 100-plus yards to Nate Washington and the Texans' sorry quarterbacks. Andy Dalton is red hot and Jones has found the end zone in consecutive weeks while flashing the ball skills and sneaky athleticism that made him break out for 10 scores in 2013.

Rueben Randle, NYG at BUF

Secondary targets have racked up a combined 23 catches, 256 yards and five touchdowns against the Bills and their gambling back seven. Some training camp injuries got Randle off to a slow start, but back in game shape now he picked up last week (116 yards and a score) where he left off in 2014 when he closed the final two games with 290 receiving yards. With Victor Cruz (calf) likely still sidelined, he should continue taking advantage of the single coverage Odell Beckham creates.

TIGHT END

Martellus Bennett, CHI vs. OAK

All you need to know is Gary Barnidge did it. Gary "freaking" Barnidge (no disrespect or anything) went for 105 yards and a touchdown catching passes from Josh McCown. Or to put it in other words, the eight-year veteran produced 13.8 percent of his career yards and 25 percent of his career touchdowns in one game versus the Raiders. That's how bad they are covering tight ends.

Charles Clay, BUF vs. NYG

An underrated athlete and talent in a similar mold to Delanie Walker, Clay has found a nice chemistry with Tyrod Taylor and is quickly becoming a go-to weapon (12 targets and two touchdowns over the last two games). With Sammy Watkins (calf) unlikely to suit up, expect Clay to feast on a Giants defense that's allowed the third most yards to tight ends (241).

DOWNGRADE:

QUARTERBACK

Ryan Tannehill, MIA vs. NYJ (in London)

Tannehill threw his first three picks of the season last week, and facing a Jets defense that's forced a league-high 11 turnovers so far could result in an encore of his sloppy play. Although his yardage has been strong the last two games and he's tossed a couple touchdowns in each, Tannehill hasn't faced a Darrelle Revis secondary yet.

Russell Wilson, SEA vs. DET

Sure, Wilson didn't need to throw multiple touchdowns against the Bears to win comfortably, but it's also not like the 0-3 Lions are putting up much fight these days. While Wilson tends to shine brightest in primetime, don't be surprised to see the Seahawks win with ball control and defense again, particularly if Marshawn Lynch cannot suit up.

RUNNING BACK

Jeremy Hill, CIN vs. KC

Hill's putrid play the last two weeks would be enough to downgrade him -- 60 yards on 22 carries, without a single 10-yard run and two lost fumbles. If that weren't enough, he's now facing a Chiefs defense that's yet to give up a touchdown to a running back and yields just 3.5 yards per carry.

Doug Martin, TB vs. CAR

Martin's yards per carry have decreased in every game thus far as teams are consistently daring Jameis Winston to burn them over the top. Since Winston is not about to draw Carolina linebackers out of the box, expect that trend to continue against a unit that's held tailbacks to just 3.1 YPC.

Devonta Freeman, ATL vs. HOU

Couldn't get through the entire piece without Freeman's monstrous, three-touchdown performance coming up, now could we? As magnificent as he was in that game, he may be equally rough this time out. The Texans have yet to give up a rushing touchdown, holding opposing backs to 78.3 yards per game.

WIDE RECEIVER

Calvin Johnson, DET at SEA

Johnson has 30 targets the last two weeks and just 160 yards to show for it. Sure, that's no slouch production, but 5.3 yards per target sure isn't Megatron production, either. Matthew Stafford's struggles are extending to his superstar receiver and that will be magnified facing the "Legion of Boom" that's whole again with the return of Kam Chancellor.

Jarvis Landry, MIA vs. NYJ (in London)

Landry has been super consistent so far with eight catches in every game. If he draws Revis, a high likelihood as the Jets don't figure to respect Matthews more based off a few games, eight won't happen this week.

Allen Robinson, JAC at IND

Last week, Robinson had to deal with a scheming Bill Belichick defense aimed at taking him away as Bortles' go-to guy. Only a couple long garbage-time catches gave him a moderate day. Facing lockdown corner Vontae Davis, the cards will once again be stacked against this breakout talent.

TIGHT END

Heath Miller, PIT vs. BAL

Baltimore has allowed a league-low 30 yards to tight ends over three weeks, and that includes a complete blanking of Tyler Eifert last week. Without his ol' pal Big Ben finding him during the scramble drill, and facing an athletic linebacking corps, Miller is set up for a stinker.