This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at Week 5:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHIEFS | Bears | 29.20% | 400 | 80.00% | 5.84 |
| FALCONS | Redskins | 20.90% | 300 | 75.00% | 5.23 |
| GIANTS | 49ers | 14.10% | 275 | 73.33% | 3.76 |
| PACKERS | Rams | 13.50% | 425 | 80.95% | 2.57 |
| Patriots | COWBOYS | 9.20% | 355 | 78.02% | 2.02 |
| RAVENS | Browns | 6.80% | 260 | 72.22% | 1.89 |
| Broncos | RAIDERS | 2.00% | 192.5 | 65.81% | 0.68 |
| Cardinals | LIONS | 0.90% | 135 | 57.45% | 0.38 |
| Bills | TITANS | 0.80% | 120 | 54.55% | 0.36 |
| EAGLES | Saints | 0.70% | 200 | 66.67% | 0.23 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Vegas has a clear pick here, and it's the Packers who are the biggest favorite on the board and only 13.5 percent used. After that, it's the Patriots (slightly less used and slightly less favored) and finally the Chiefs (80 percent to win, but 29 percent owned.)
My Picks:
1. Green Bay Packers
The Rams aren't a doormat, and Todd Gurley should have his way on the ground, but the Packers are so tough at home, and given their reasonable ownership rates, they're the best bet. I give them an 80 percent chance to win this game.
2. New York Giants
It's close between them, the
Let's take a look at Week 5:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHIEFS | Bears | 29.20% | 400 | 80.00% | 5.84 |
| FALCONS | Redskins | 20.90% | 300 | 75.00% | 5.23 |
| GIANTS | 49ers | 14.10% | 275 | 73.33% | 3.76 |
| PACKERS | Rams | 13.50% | 425 | 80.95% | 2.57 |
| Patriots | COWBOYS | 9.20% | 355 | 78.02% | 2.02 |
| RAVENS | Browns | 6.80% | 260 | 72.22% | 1.89 |
| Broncos | RAIDERS | 2.00% | 192.5 | 65.81% | 0.68 |
| Cardinals | LIONS | 0.90% | 135 | 57.45% | 0.38 |
| Bills | TITANS | 0.80% | 120 | 54.55% | 0.36 |
| EAGLES | Saints | 0.70% | 200 | 66.67% | 0.23 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Vegas has a clear pick here, and it's the Packers who are the biggest favorite on the board and only 13.5 percent used. After that, it's the Patriots (slightly less used and slightly less favored) and finally the Chiefs (80 percent to win, but 29 percent owned.)
My Picks:
1. Green Bay Packers
The Rams aren't a doormat, and Todd Gurley should have his way on the ground, but the Packers are so tough at home, and given their reasonable ownership rates, they're the best bet. I give them an 80 percent chance to win this game.
2. New York Giants
It's close between them, the Patriots and the Chiefs, but the Giants are less owned than Kansas City, and I think they should be a bigger favorite than they are against a 49ers squad with a weak defense and a quarterback that looks checked out. I give the Giants an 80 percent chance to win this game.
3. New England Patriots
It's a road game, but after the bye I have a hard time seeing them lose to the Tony Romo/Dez Bryant-less Cowboys. They're also very lightly owned. I give the Patriots a 78 percent chance to win this game.
4. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have been reeling, but consider their opponents: at Cincinnati, at Green Bay and home against the Broncos. The Bears got their home win out of the way against the Raiders, but it'll be much tougher going into Arrowhead. I give the Chiefs an 80 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Atlanta Falcons - They've trailed by double-digits in every game but last week's, and while the Redskins aren't good, they haven't looked like a doormat, either. There are too many stronger choices this week, and the Falcons are 21 percent owned.
Denver Broncos - The Raiders have knocked quite a few people out of Survivor the last few years, and it's almost always when the game is in Oakland. The Broncos are far better, but Peyton Manning isn't what he used to be.
Baltimore Ravens - I think the Ravens will bounce back at home, but they're paper thin at wide receiver, and their defense hasn't been good thus far.
