On Target: Targets But Not Touchdowns

On Target: Targets But Not Touchdowns

This article is part of our On Target series.

The end of the fantasy regular season is near and most trade deadlines are long done. For those who are no longer in playoff contention, check out daily fantasy for the first time if you haven't already. That wonderful format of game ensures that your knowledge (and my research here) is not all for naught. For those who are lucky enough to be playoff bound, let's check some data. For those who hate me for reminding you that you aren't in the playoffs, I promise the data is still interesting.

Total Target Numbers
(Click to sort.)

PLAYERTARGETSRECYARDSTD
DeAndre Hopkins123719287
Julio Jones1198010296
Antonio Brown1147911415
Odell Beckham104638638
Demaryius Thomas103688161
Brandon Marshall96577536
Allen Robinson91457587
Keenan Allen89677254
Jarvis Landry89605873
Julian Edelman88616927
Calvin Johnson87547403
T.Y. Hilton87437033
Mike Evans86406671
Larry Fitzgerald85658367
Michael Crabtree85516465
Emmanuel Sanders85466394
Travis Benjamin82487364
Amari Cooper81507324
Brandin Cooks80507016
Jordan Matthews80515522
A.J. Green79547334
Randall Cobb78455295
Greg Olsen77456645
Rob Gronkowski75498068
Gary Barnidge7448667
The end of the fantasy regular season is near and most trade deadlines are long done. For those who are no longer in playoff contention, check out daily fantasy for the first time if you haven't already. That wonderful format of game ensures that your knowledge (and my research here) is not all for naught. For those who are lucky enough to be playoff bound, let's check some data. For those who hate me for reminding you that you aren't in the playoffs, I promise the data is still interesting.

Total Target Numbers
(Click to sort.)

PLAYERTARGETSRECYARDSTD
DeAndre Hopkins123719287
Julio Jones1198010296
Antonio Brown1147911415
Odell Beckham104638638
Demaryius Thomas103688161
Brandon Marshall96577536
Allen Robinson91457587
Keenan Allen89677254
Jarvis Landry89605873
Julian Edelman88616927
Calvin Johnson87547403
T.Y. Hilton87437033
Mike Evans86406671
Larry Fitzgerald85658367
Michael Crabtree85516465
Emmanuel Sanders85466394
Travis Benjamin82487364
Amari Cooper81507324
Brandin Cooks80507016
Jordan Matthews80515522
A.J. Green79547334
Randall Cobb78455295
Greg Olsen77456645
Rob Gronkowski75498068
Gary Barnidge74486677
Steve Smith73466703
Golden Tate72444291
Martellus Bennett70483993
Allen Hurns68416977
Jeremy Maclin67455832
Pierre Garcon67434303
Donte Moncrief66394295
Eric Decker65425577
Willie Snead64416263
Travis Kelce64455743
Jimmy Graham63414912
Jason Witten62494452
Devonta Freeman62484202
Tyler Eifert61404609
Danny Woodhead60465223
Ted Ginn59254083
Ben Watson58465513
Marvin Jones58354553
Kamar Aiken58324062
Jordan Reed58413976
Zach Ertz58363820
Rishard Matthews57426474
Alshon Jeffery57365152
Charles Clay57404082
Delanie Walker56455083
Theo Riddick56453732
Rueben Randle55394753
Nate Washington55284433
Jamison Crowder55424291
John Brown54375623
Anquan Boldin54313722
Jacob Tamme52384301
Cecil Shorts52293151
Doug Baldwin50384793
Dion Lewis50363882
Terrance Williams50253732
Heath Miller50343451
Mike Wallace50283181
Tavon Austin50303054
Coby Fleener50332802

Red-Zone Conversion Percentage
(Click to sort.)

PLAYERTARGETSRECYARDSTDRZ CONV%
Tyler Eifert141093964
Larry Fitzgerald10739660
Allen Robinson12759650
Gary Barnidge13773646
Eric Decker14848643
Jordan Reed15851640
Randall Cobb12633433
Brandon Marshall16883531
Rob Gronkowski16951531
Antonio Brown13946431
Calvin Johnson10644330
Kyle Rudolph10310330
Julian Edelman171182529
Odell Beckham14969429
Julio Jones16955425
Greg Olsen12877325
A.J. Green12541325
DeAndre Hopkins19969421
Devonta Freeman10762220
Brian Hartline10527220
Anquan Boldin15652213
Jarvis Landry16963213
Terrance Williams10333110
Jordan Cameron10331110
Jordan Matthews1164919
Alshon Jeffery1144619
Heath Miller1275618
T.Y. Hilton1264018
Mike Evans1111700

Danny Amendola, Brandon Lafell and even Keshawn Martin have the potential to determine outcomes for seasonal and daily leagues over the next two months. The Patriots' offense has been the best in the NFL and scores the most points per game, but the Pats have lost two of their three highest-producing players in consecutive weeks with Dion Lewis shredding his knee and Julian Edelman breaking his foot. The immediate reaction has been that Amendola will step in and become Edelman, and while I think that is the most likely scenario, there have also been murmurs from Foxboro that Keshawn Martin will be the WR in two-WR sets. Considering the Pats do like to go heavy with two WR, Gronk, Scott Chandler and Blount, that could leave Amendola out in the cold for long stretches. He's still a really safe bet to average 8.5 targets per game and weasel his way into a few touchdowns, however. In deep leagues, I'm making a pre-emptive Martin pick up as well.

Mike Evans has not play particularly well in consecutive games but had double-digit targets and 100 yards receiving in both. With Austin Sefarin-Jenkins and Vincent Jackson hobbled by injury, Evans really is the only game in town. Early on in the year, it was hard for Evans and Jameis Winston to get on the same page, and with Evans struggling with drops; some of those problems have remained. However, despite any "trust issues" between the two, Evans is truly always open to a quarterback with as daring of a style as Winston and has, therefore, racked up the targets. Evans is interesting the rest of this season and for next season because he hasn't scored many touchdowns this year and has converted zero percent of his red-zone looks into touchdowns. I would assume a gnarly positive regression in that number is coming soon, which will, of course, bring up his valuation for the foreseeable future. As of now, he is far, far too cheap in daily fantasy and should be deployed as such.

John Brown and Michael Floyd have essentially switched roles as "smokey" Brown tries to recover from a hamstring injury that he just can't quite shake. For those who have been at the fantasy game for awhile, they'll remember that Mike Floyd was a highly touted draft pick out of Notre Dame and played exceedingly well as a second-year player before turning in a disappointing third year with only 47 receptions. He hasn't been a volume receiver this year, either, but with Brown limited by injury, Floyd has turned in four straight games with a touchdown reception. If you look at the correlation from when Brown got injured, you'll see that Floyd has basically superseded him in the offense, and it's not really being talked about because Brown is still "active" on gamedays. The latest report on Brown's health is that he missed practice on Wednesday after only three targets in the win against the Seahawks. You won't feel super safe about it, but using Floyd in any format while Brown is injured at the moment is a pretty sharp move, albeit one with a low floor.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Davis Mattek
Davis Mattek has played DFS for a living for over a year and began in the fantasy sports industry in 2012. He is a member of the FSTA and FSWA.
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