This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at Week 13:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BEARS | 49ers | 43.30% | 300 | 75.00% | 10.83 |
| STEELERS | Colts | 12.80% | 275 | 73.33% | 3.41 |
| PATRIOTS | Eagles | 11.80% | 487.5 | 82.98% | 2.01 |
| Bengals | BROWNS | 7.80% | 487.5 | 82.98% | 1.33 |
| REDSKINS | Cowboys | 6.00% | 200 | 66.67% | 2.00 |
| Panthers | SAINTS | 5.60% | 290 | 74.36% | 1.44 |
| Broncos | CHARGERS | 4.90% | 195 | 66.10% | 1.66 |
| DOLPHINS | Ravens | 1.60% | 185 | 64.91% | 0.56 |
| BILLS | Texans | 1.50% | 160 | 61.54% | 0.58 |
| Cardinals | RAMS | 1.00% | 240 | 70.59% | 0.29 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The Bengals and Patriots are the easy top two choices, and (according to Vegas) the Panthers and Steelers are the next pair to consider if Cincinnati and New England are unavailable. The Bears are big favorites too, but they're more than 43-percent used, so if those ownership rates reflect your pool's, Vegas would rank them a distant fifth. Of course, the percent-owned numbers are noisier this time of year, so double-check who the surviving teams in your pool have available and try to come up with percentage-owned numbers for yourself.
My Picks:
1. New England Patriots
The Patriots are missing most of their offensive skill players, and their offensive line is riddled with injures. Still, the Eagles have been the worst team in the league
Let's take a look at Week 13:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BEARS | 49ers | 43.30% | 300 | 75.00% | 10.83 |
| STEELERS | Colts | 12.80% | 275 | 73.33% | 3.41 |
| PATRIOTS | Eagles | 11.80% | 487.5 | 82.98% | 2.01 |
| Bengals | BROWNS | 7.80% | 487.5 | 82.98% | 1.33 |
| REDSKINS | Cowboys | 6.00% | 200 | 66.67% | 2.00 |
| Panthers | SAINTS | 5.60% | 290 | 74.36% | 1.44 |
| Broncos | CHARGERS | 4.90% | 195 | 66.10% | 1.66 |
| DOLPHINS | Ravens | 1.60% | 185 | 64.91% | 0.56 |
| BILLS | Texans | 1.50% | 160 | 61.54% | 0.58 |
| Cardinals | RAMS | 1.00% | 240 | 70.59% | 0.29 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The Bengals and Patriots are the easy top two choices, and (according to Vegas) the Panthers and Steelers are the next pair to consider if Cincinnati and New England are unavailable. The Bears are big favorites too, but they're more than 43-percent used, so if those ownership rates reflect your pool's, Vegas would rank them a distant fifth. Of course, the percent-owned numbers are noisier this time of year, so double-check who the surviving teams in your pool have available and try to come up with percentage-owned numbers for yourself.
My Picks:
1. New England Patriots
The Patriots are missing most of their offensive skill players, and their offensive line is riddled with injures. Still, the Eagles have been the worst team in the league over the last two weeks, the Pats defense is stout and the game is in Foxboro. I give the Patriots an 84 percent chance to win this game.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are on the road against a division rival, but Austin Davis is starting at quarterback for the Browns, and Cleveland's defense can't stop anyone. I give the Bengals an 83 percent chance to win this game.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Matt Hasselbeck is a nice story, but I think he'll be exposed in this matchup as the Steelers score points and force him into too many passing situations. I give the Steelers a 79 percent chance to win this game.
4. Chicago Bears
The Bears are heavily owned, but the overall numbers mean less at this point in the season. (Though if it turns out 50 percent or more of your remaining pool are likely to use them, I would fade them.) Jay Cutler is playing at a Pro Bowl level this year, it looks like Alshon Jeffery is healthy again, and the 49ers are much worse on the road. I give the Bears an 80 percent chance to win this game.
5. Carolina Panthers
I don't like the setup here, and I could see the Saints, who play better in their own building, pulling off the upset. That said, the Panthers should have their way with New Orleans' league-worst defense, and Carolina's defense is the strength of the team. I give the Panthers a 70 percent chance to win this game.
6. Denver Broncos
This is a road game, but San Diego has almost no home-field advantage, and they're poor at defending both the pass and the run. The Broncos have the league's best defense, and with Brock Osweiler under center, the offense is no longer a doormat. I give the Broncos a 69 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions
Washington Redskins - The Redskins have been good at home this year, but the Cowboys are probably the better team other than at the quarterback position, and it's not like Kirk Cousins is better than league average.
Miami Dolphins - The Dolphins defense has been poor since Cameron Wake went down, and the Ravens are better defensively of late and better coached.
Arizona Cardinals - They struggled in San Francisco last week, and while the Rams can't pass the ball, they can play defense and turn it into an ugly slugfest on the ground.
