This article is part of our Exploiting the Matchups series.
And the victim total continues to climb. Jimmy Graham's knee was the worst of it, but he was far from alone in what feels like a historically unfortunate season for major injuries. Tony Romo is down AGAIN with a broken collarbone. Chris Johnson's chase for a seventh 1,000-yard season will fall short after a fractured tibia ended his regular season. And while it looks like it could just be one week for each, a lot of fantasy seasons could be lost if Rob Gronkowski's knee strain and Ben Roethlisberger's concussion keep them sidelined a week.
In a "next man up" league, the fantasy owners who aim for the highest floors are the likeliest to prevail down the stretch run. The sheer volume of star players going down is going to lower scoring in general, so what you want to have in your lineup are the clear replacements. If a guy is getting the football, worry less about whom he's playing or even to an extent how he's playing. A guy like Shaun Draughn is averaging a meager 3.4 yards per carry for San Fran, but in three starts he's seen 20 touches in each. I'll take his safe 70-plus total yards over a home-run threat like Lamar Miller who may also only see the ball eight to 10 times in any given game and fail to reach even 20 yards, as he did in the one-point loss I just suffered to my brother in a game
And the victim total continues to climb. Jimmy Graham's knee was the worst of it, but he was far from alone in what feels like a historically unfortunate season for major injuries. Tony Romo is down AGAIN with a broken collarbone. Chris Johnson's chase for a seventh 1,000-yard season will fall short after a fractured tibia ended his regular season. And while it looks like it could just be one week for each, a lot of fantasy seasons could be lost if Rob Gronkowski's knee strain and Ben Roethlisberger's concussion keep them sidelined a week.
In a "next man up" league, the fantasy owners who aim for the highest floors are the likeliest to prevail down the stretch run. The sheer volume of star players going down is going to lower scoring in general, so what you want to have in your lineup are the clear replacements. If a guy is getting the football, worry less about whom he's playing or even to an extent how he's playing. A guy like Shaun Draughn is averaging a meager 3.4 yards per carry for San Fran, but in three starts he's seen 20 touches in each. I'll take his safe 70-plus total yards over a home-run threat like Lamar Miller who may also only see the ball eight to 10 times in any given game and fail to reach even 20 yards, as he did in the one-point loss I just suffered to my brother in a game that may have sealed our opposite playoff fates. Side note: I can't tell you how glad I am to have flexed him over Tevin Coleman, whom I knew would get the football. Getting the point here? Coleman was a one-week fill-in option, but at least I should have realized the Falcons would run the ball.
So there you have it. My best advice to get those final one or two wins needed to secure a playoff birth: play for the highest floor. Play the guys with the clearest path to opportunity (I'm looking at you, David Johnson).
As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit column. Upgrades are players you wouldn't consistently start (or who have consistently underachieved), while those downgraded generally are lineup mainstays with a bad opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.
UPGRADE
Quarterback
Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ at NYG
Coming off his first four-touchdown game as a Jet, with his weapons healthy, Fitzpatrick is set up nicely to win the New York duel. The Giants allow 25 more passing yards per game than any defense and the bearded leader for Gang Green shouldn't have difficulty finding the end zone either with multiple scores in all but one game he's completed this season.
Tom Brady, NE vs. PHI
A no-brainer? Yes, of course. But it's worth noting that this week Brady cannot be downgraded from a top-3 fantasy quarterback regardless of who he's throwing to. He still somehow tossed three touchdowns against the Broncos' uber-stingy pass defense and now gets to feast on an Eagles group that's allowed Matthew Stafford and Jameis Winston to each throw five TDs the last two weeks.
Alex Smith, KC at OAK
The Raiders have only held one quarterback all season out of the end zone and give up the fourth-most passing yards per game (282.7). Smith has quietly reached double figures in standard fantasy scoring in every game since Week 2 and has supplemented his improving passing numbers with 30-plus rushing yards in four straight. With Jeremy Maclin back to himself, Smith is a high-floor option.
Running Back
Javorius Allen, BAL at MIA
For the second consecutive week Allen gets the joy of facing a garbage run defense. After tallying 84 total yards and his first career touchdown against the 31st-ranked Browns run D, he will take on Miami's dead last unit. With his versatility as a pass-catcher, Allen should continue to lead a makeshift Baltimore backfield.
David Johnson, AZ at STL
Johnson's eight touchdowns lead the entire Cardinals team despite the fact he's seen only 54 touches from scrimmage. With size, speed and excellent hands this dynamic rookie should emerge as a fantasy force down the stretch with Chris Johnson (leg) shelved and Andre Ellington (toe) hurting.
C.J. Anderson, DEN at SD
Anderson has piled up 225 total yards and two TDs at 6.4 yards per carry in consecutive Broncos victories. He will continue splitting opportunities with Ronnie Hillman, but Denver is finally realizing its vision as a run-first offense with Brock Osweiler in for Peyton Manning. The Chargers are one of only six teams that have allowed double-digit rushing scores, and they happen to allow the most YPC in the league (tied/4.9 YPC). If you own Anderson, you play Anderson.
Wide Receiver
Michael Crabtree, OAK vs. KC
Crabtree has been in a slump the last three weeks. He's failed to top 55 yards in that stretch and, though he scored last Sunday, is coming off a season-low 19 yards. So it's perfect timing to face a Chiefs defense that's allowed a league-high 2,212 yards to receivers. Get ready for a slump buster.
Kamar Aiken, BAL at MIA
Somebody has to catch passes in Baltimore and that man, since Steve Smith landed on IR, has been Aiken. The former special teams ace has seen 32 targets in the last three games and scored in two straight. Now he gets a Miami defense that allowed four TDs to wideouts last week alone.
Donte Moncrief, IND at PIT
Play your wide receivers against the Steelers. From here on that's a good guide to victory. In its last three games, Pittsburgh has allowed 805 yards and eight touchdowns to wideouts, with a 100-yard receiver in each contest and seven players totaling at least 69 yards. Moncrief, in four games with Matt Hasselbeck under center, has at least eight targets in three, and is riding the momentum of his first 100-yard game since Week 2.
Tight End
Kyle Rudolph, MIN vs. SEA
In their last three games, the Seahawks have allowed the likes of Vance McDonald and Jermaine Gresham burn them for touchdowns. Rudolph has come on strong with 13 catches, 159 yards and a score the last two weeks, and he's poised to take advantage of a linebacker corps that loses tight ends easily.
Vance McDonald, SF at CHI
A Bears defense that's allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends is a sham. They've played just two of the top-15 tight ends in terms of yardage. McDonald has taken over as the 49ers' No. 1 option at the position since the departure of Vernon Davis and has quickly become a best friend to Blaine Gabbert, with at least 65 yards and a touchdown in consecutive games.
DOWNGRADE
Quarterback
Drew Brees, NO vs. CAR
Even prior to breaking his collarbone, Tony Romo had thrown for three interceptions and barely 100 yards in more than two quarters versus a swarming Panthers defense. Although Brees' last four home games each resulted in more than 300 yards passing, he's struggled the last two weeks and has seven interceptions over the last five contests. A smothering Texans defense held him out of the end zone for the first time this year, and an even better Panthers unit will challenge him in the same way.
Philip Rivers, SD vs. DEN
Even after Brady burned the Broncos for three scores they're still tied for the fewest passing TDs allowed (11) and are the only team giving up less than 200 yards per game through the air. Rivers may be coming off a four-touchdown game, but that Jacksonville secondary is a far cry from Denver's, and his rag-tag group of receivers sure as heck isn't keeping any defensive coordinators up at night.
Running Back
Todd Gurley, STL vs. AZ
Gurley hammered the Cardinals in his breakout Week 4 performance, cruising to 146 yards on 19 carries. Oh how the mighty has fallen. His last three games combined have only totaled 130 yards on the ground as an anemic pass attack has allowed defenses to key on him. His 3.1 YPC the last four weeks does not inspire confidence facing Arizona's fourth-ranked run defense, especially coming off a 19-yard stinker versus the Bengals.
Lamar Miller, MIA vs. BAL
The Dolphins' defense is bad. Their offense is confused. It all adds up to a star-caliber talent in Miller getting drastically under utilized. Until that stops he's no longer a top running back option. Moreover, the Ravens have quietly been effective limiting tailbacks. They've given up just five touchdowns all year to the position, and only Le'Veon Bell and Chris Johnson have hit the century mark against them.
Latavius Murray, OAK vs. KC
It's been a nice run for Murray with six consecutive games with at least 77 total yards or a touchdown, but that's about to come to a close. The Chiefs have held the likes of Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy to less than 75 yards and 4.0 YPC on the ground.
Wide Receiver
Sammy Watkins, BUF vs. HOU
Since returning from injury in Week 9, Watkins has bracketed two miserable games against elite corners with two monster outings of at least 158 yards and a touchdown. He'll be back down to earth this week, however, facing a Texans defense that has allowed just one wideout to top 70 yards in the last four games.
Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, TB vs. ATL
Atlanta's outside cornerbacks have been sensational this year. They've limited wide receivers to just 124.1 yards per game (third lowest in the league) and allowed only three touchdowns to the position. Evans faced them previously without Jackson and managed just 48 yards on nine targets. This time around, the pair of towering targets will steal looks from each other and both turn in modest totals.
Randall Cobb, GB at DET
In their three-game win streak the Lions haven't allowed an opponent to score more than 16 points and haven't given up more than 79 yards to a wide receiver, including shutting down the Raiders' dynamic duo of Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, and Cobb himself. Green Bay's best receiver has caught only 17 of 38 targets the last four weeks and produced 53 yards on 10 looks versus Detroit at home. This has not been said in the Aaron Rodgers era, but you simply can't trust those Packers receivers.
Tight End
Gary Barnidge, CLE vs. CIN
Barnidge's sensational breakout season has seen him pile up 51 catches, 703 yards and seven TDs in the last nine games while averaging a very healthy 13.8 yards per catch. His ONLY game below nine points in standard scoring during that stretch: a 35-yard clunker versus a Bengals team that's allowed the fewest touchdowns this year to tight ends.
