NFL Draft: Combine/Pro Day Progress Report

Combine and pro day workouts are just one piece of the evaluative puzzle that is the NFL Draft process, but it's a very important piece nonetheless. It's the way we quantify the size and athleticism for the upcoming class, and allows evaluators to narrow the projected NFL outcomes for the incoming rookies by comparing athletic profiles to past NFL players. While production and film also matter for NFL draft evaluation, the importance of workout data is self evident.

This article will highlight the player stock fluctuations occurring in light of the Combine and pro day workouts, pointing out winners, losers, and even a few notable players who broke even.

Risers

Keith Marshall, RB, Georgia (5-11, 219)

Marshall came to Georgia as the gem of the Bulldogs' 2012 recruiting class and the No.1 rated all-purpose back that year. However, that class also boasted the then lesser-known Todd Gurley who...well, you know.

Marshall's career at Georgia got off to an excellent start as he rushed for 759 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 6.5 yards per attempt. Unfortunately, those 117 carries in 2012 would ultimately be his most in a single season at UGA as Marshall caught the injury bug in his sophomore campaign with a torn ACL and never truly regained form.

Coming into the draft season, I felt Marshall would be a long shot to earn himself a draftable grade after such a long downturn in production and even longer injury history. But then he reminded everyone what a healthy Keith Marshall is capable of, and it has him back on the map. He ran a 4.31 official (4.29 unofficial) in the 40-yard dash at the Combine, which was the best mark at this year's Combine, and 0.11 seconds better than Jeremy Langford's class-leading 4.42 from 2015.

Marshall's health concerns and relative lack of tape will likely keep him out of the first two rounds, but the explosive athletic profile he displayed in Indianapolis should warrant him a mid-round selection in April.

Projected round: 3-4

Josh Doctson, WR, TCU (6-2, 202)

Doctson came into the Combine as our fourth-ranked receiver in this class and was already a well-known commodity from his days in Fort Worth, so he wasn't really sneaking up on anyone. That said, there seemed to be a clear dropoff between the top two receivers (Laquon Treadwell and Corey Coleman) and the next group of pass catchers (Tyler Boyd, Doctson, William Fuller, Braxton Miller, Leonte Carroo).

Doctson clearly broke into the first tier with a tremendous workout that should lock him into the first round. Measuring in at 6-foot-2, 202 lbs with 9 ⅞-inch hands, Doctson ran a 4.50 40 yard dash, posted a 131-inch broad jump, and notched a 41-inch vertical that was the best among receivers. His combination of height, speed, and leaping ability were all apparent on film, but it was reassuring to see all of those traits become quantified as elite among his position group. Doctson belongs in the first round and could even be the first receiver selected so long as teams don't penalize him too harshly for his age – Doctson will turn 24 in December.

Projected round: 1

Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor (5-11, 194)

For the first eight weeks of last season, Coleman was the most feared wideout in the land and arguably the most feared skill player overall, racking up 58 catches for 1,178 yards (20.31 YPR) and 20 touchdowns. Unfortunately, injuries to quarterbacks Seth Russell and Jarett Stidham slowed the Baylor offense down the stretch and a sports hernia hampered Coleman toward the end as well.

He opted to wait until his pro day to run the 40 yard dash while recovering from sports hernia surgery, but Coleman just about hit it out of the park when his March 16 pro day finally arrived, timing around the 4.37-4.40 second range in the 40. It's an excellent time considering Coleman already logged a 40.5-inch vertical (third among receivers) and 129-inch broad jump (sixth among receivers) at the Combine, all while being less than 100 percent. Like Doctson, Coleman is locked into the first round.

Projected round: 1

Devin Lucien, WR, Arizona State (6-1, 222)

The former UCLA Bruin put together a strong season in his one year at Arizona State, immediately becoming the Sun Devils' leading receiver by hauling in 66 receptions for 1,074 yards and eight touchdowns. Furthermore, he was able to overcome an injury-riddled start to the season to finish out the campaign on an absolute tear, pulling down 26 grabs for 534 yards and five scores in the Sun Devils' final three games. Unfortunately, Lucien was one of the more notable snubs from the Combine, but his strong pro day showing should have him on NFL teams' radar.

Measuring in at 6-1, 222 pounds with a 4.48u 40, Lucien shows an impressive size-speed combination. That said, one year of legitimate production in a high-flying offense does not completely counteract his marginal three-year production at UCLA where he topped out at 29 receptions for 225 yards and two scores in 2014. While Lucien has done extremely well for himself to vault his name into draft consideration after being largely off the radar at this point last year, there are still plenty of unknowns with him that will likely prevent him from being more than a late round selection. Still, Lucien was a better player in 2015 than the more hyped D.J. Foster, and that's worth consideration.

Projected round: 4-6

Jakeem Grant, WR, Texas Tech (5-6, 165)

The lightning-quick Grant was another notable Combine snub that put on a show at his pro day. He timed in at 4.42 and 4.38 in his 40-yard dash attempts and followed that up with a 36.5-inch vertical jump and 7.01-second three-cone. The elephant in the room here is that Grant would also likely be one of the smallest players to don an NFL uniform in recent memory as he measured in at 5-foot-5 and ⅞ inches, 165 pounds.

Now that we've stated the obvious, let's move on to his other traits. His playmaking ability with the ball in his hands is among the best in this class, and he combines his burning speed with excellent vision and aggression after the catch. With a little luck, Grant just might be able to do a decent Tavon Austin impression at the next level.

Projected round: 6-7

Dom Williams, WR, Washington State (6-3, 198)

Williams was a four-year contributor at Washington State, finishing out his career in Pullman as the Cougars' second-most prolific receiver all-time in terms of receiving yards (2,889) and touchdowns (30).  He was consistent through his first three years, averaging 39 receptions per year before catching 75 passes for 1,040 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2015. Like Lucien and Grant, Williams did not have the luxury of receiving a Combine invite, so his Pro Day was pivotal to getting his stock turned around in the right direction. Williams did not disappoint, running his 40 in 4.39 and 4.41 seconds after measuring in at 6-foot-2 and ⅝, 198 pounds. He also showed some serious leaping ability with a 40.5-inch vertical.

With an already distinct height advantage, Williams' ability to elevate is an added bonus that has helped him establish himself as a legitimate red zone threat. In fact, he led the nation in red zone receptions (22) and yards (166) while finishing third in RZ touchdowns (nine). Williams' impressive pro day, coupled with his on-field production in his final year at Washington State, should garner him some looks towards the later rounds despite being somewhat of an afterthought coming into draft season.

Projected round: 5-7

Jerell Adams, TE, South Carolina (6-5, 247)

Sure, Adams isn't Gronk 2.0, but with such a thin crop at tight end, the opportunity was there for someone in this tight end group to make a name for themselves and Adams went out and did it. Hunter Henry is still the favorite to be the first tight end off the board come draft day, but Adams put on an impressive show in his Combine workout that puts him in the conversation as the second player taken at his position. Adams possesses an excellent blend of size (6-foot-5, 247 pounds) and speed, as shown by his 4.64 40 yard dash that was tops among his position.

What's more, Adams has drawn praise for his blocking ability, and it's easy to see why with his offensive lineman-esque long arms that measured in at 34 and ⅜ inches. Adams has even started to get notice from the likes of Todd McShay, who lauded him for his blocking ability and for his speed, noting that the South Carolina product could have the highest ceiling among tight ends in this class. Adams may need some time to hone in his route running skills, but his raw tools as a pass catcher and as a blocker ought to warrant him some snaps sooner rather than later once he gets drafted.

Projected round: 2-3

Fallers

DeMarcus Ayers, WR, Houston (5-9, 182)

Admittedly, I was a huge fan of Ayers' work this season. He was one of the funnest players to watch on one of the funnest teams to watch in 2015, and as a DFS option he was a fixture in my lineups. Thus, it pains me to say it, but Ayers' stock is plummeting after the Combine.

It wasn't a secret that he'd have to test extremely well last weekend to compensate for his less than ideal size (5-foot-9, 182 pounds, 9 and ¼-inch hands). But rather than run a blazing 40 and jump out of the gym, Ayers underwhelmed at nearly every phase of his workout. His 4.72 40 yard dash put him second-to-last among receivers that participated, and his 33-inch vertical jump just barely meets the threshold for most teams. This graph from mockdraftable.com gives you a visual idea of where Ayers' measurables stack up compared to other wideouts where the greater the shaded area equals a higher percentile in multiple categories:

The one silver lining from Ayers' combine workout is that the Houston Chronicle reported he worked out with a broken pinkie, which he said prevented him from getting a good push for his 40 yard dash. Still, Ayers will need to put on a show at his March 24 pro day to pull his stock out of the fire.

Projected round: 6-7

Kelvin Taylor, RB, Florida (5-10, 207)

Coming into the Combine, Taylor was one tailback I felt had sleeper potential based on his body of work at Florida. He showed excellent vision and lateral quickness in a Gator uniform and, according to his profile on NFL.com, he never fumbled in 510 career touches. His showing at the Combine was a whole different story, however. He measured in at 5-10, 207 with small hands (8 ¼ in.) and tested poorly with a 4.60 40 yard dash, and he did not participate in other drills. At second glance at his final season at Florida, Taylor's overall performance was not in line with what you'd want to see from a running back in his last hurrah in college. His 4.0 yard-per-carry average in 2015 and 4.3 career YPC are not encouraging signs even if he did reach paydirt 13 times in 2015. Taylor's stock is on the downturn and I'm not sure I see how he can turn it around before the last weekend in April.

Projected round: 5-6

Peyton Barber, RB, Auburn (5-10, 228)

Barber's decision to enter the draft with only one year as a featured back was surprising to many, and though I'm sympathetic to his rationale, I'm just not sold on him as a legitimate NFL prospect. He put up respectable numbers (1,016 yards, 13 touchdowns, 4.29 YPC) in a very crowded backfield. In fact, coming into the season he was believed by many to be the third banana behind the likes of Jovon Robinson and Roc Thomas but he was able to surpass those two en route to being the latest Auburn rusher to crack the 1,000 yard mark.

While there are things to like about his game and his frame (5-10, 228), there's not a lot of wow factor there. He ran one of the slowest 40 yard dashes among true running backs, coming in at a disappointing 4.64. As it stands, Barber will likely be a late-round flier type of candidate.

Projected round: 6-UDFA

Laquon Treadwell, WR, Mississippi (6-2, 221)

Treadwell had long been considered the top pass-catcher in this year's class, often projecting as a top-10 pick. Treadwell's hype train has started to lose steam of late, however, and doubts about his speed have only gotten louder with his decision to not run at the combine. With strong showings from Josh Doctson and Corey Coleman, Treadwell is no longer the unanimous top wideout for this class. Fortunately for Treadwell, he'll have plenty of time to work on his 40 before Ole Miss' March 25 pro day.

Projected round: 1

De'Runnya Wilson, WR, Mississippi State (6-5, 228)

Wilson, the Bulldogs' top red-zone target from last season, needed to put on a show at the Combine to justify his decision to forego his senior season and enter the draft. Unfortunately, that's not how it played out for Wilson. From a size/frame perspective, Wilson looks the part at 6-foot-5, 228 pounds, but his testing at the Combine was an abject disaster. His 4.85 40 is one of the slowest receiver times in recent history and possibly ever while his other results (28-inch vertical, 113-inch broad jump) were bottom of the barrel compared to his peers. Wilson went from potential mid-round pick to likely UDFA in just under five seconds.

Projected round: UDFA

Breaking Even

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State (6-0, 225)

Elliott came to Indianapolis as the top running back prospect in this class and after all the measurements and tests, nothing has changed on that front. Elliott's game film is outstanding and his workouts confirmed that the tape wasn't a mirage. Zeke is the real deal. He ran a 4.47 40, which is a very solid time for a back weighing in at 225 pounds. His performance in other drills wasn't exactly record setting, but none of his results are a cause for concern either. At this point it seems Elliott is a lock to be the first back off the board in April.

Projected round: 1 (Top 10)

Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama (6-3 247)

Henry looks like a create-a-player on Madden, someone who is too big to be as fast as he is, and too fast to be as big as he is – except for the fact that Henry is a real player. He was measured at 6-foot-3, 247 pounds at the Combine, putting him in the 99th percentile in terms of running back size. Despite being that large of a human being, Henry ran a 4.54 40 and showed explosive jumping ability with excellent broad and vertical jump numbers (130-inch broad, 37-inch vertical).

The knock on Henry coming into the Combine was concern about his short area quickness, and his three-cone time of 7.20 legitimizes those concerns to a degree. Still, Henry's unique blend of size and speed is simply too impressive to ignore and he seems to have solidified his standing as the second running back to come off the board.

Projected round: 1-2 (Top 40)

Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State (6-5, 237)

Our top-ranked pre-Combine signal caller held serve in Indy and remains atop of that list by demonstrating all the traits that have fueled his meteoric rise this draft season. Wentz, at 6-foot-5, 237 with 10-inch hands, put together a strong workout and showed off his arm strength by hitting 57 mph on the radar gun according to data compiled by OurLads.com, which placed him third overall in that category.

Furthermore, the athleticism he exhibits on tape when he takes off for first down runs was apparent in Indianapolis as Wentz tied for the second-best 40 time among quarterbacks at 4.77. Wentz appears to be ready for the big time, and though he'll face a steep learning curve at the next level after making the jump from FCS, he demonstrated the kind of tools in Indianapolis that make him worthy of the top quarterback distinction for this year's class.

Projected round: 1 (Top 15)

Jared Goff, QB, California (6-4, 215)

Goff, our second-ranked quarterback going into the Combine, also had a strong showing in Indianapolis and he'll hang onto that ranking after putting together a strong Combine overall. Questions about his hand size seemed to be the only knock on Goff coming into the Combine, and while his mitts measured in at just nine inches, Goff was still able to get on top of his throws and clocked in with the second-fastest throw at the Combine at 58 mph. That shows that Goff's arm strength and ability to get on top of his throws should not be a reason for concern. He may not have the Jay Cutler-esque cannon, but the other facets to Goff's game make him a polished and well-rounded prospect and the velocity he showed at the Combine should quiet some of the naysayers about him having a weak arm.

Projected round: 1

Kenneth Dixon, RB, Louisiana Tech (5-10, 215)

Regardless of who you asked coming into the Combine, Dixon was probably somewhere in the top five among running backs in this class. His production in college is beyond reproach as he finished out his Louisiana Tech career with 87 total touchdowns, placing him second all-time in NCAA history. In watching Dixon's game film, you immediately notice his quick feet in addition to his extremely polished pass-catching ability. The question for him coming into Indianapolis was whether what we see on tape was accurate or more of a product of playing against lesser competition.

Dixon mostly answered those questions in his Combine workout, logging an adequate 4.58-second 40-yard dash while adding strong jumps (37.5-inch vertical and 121-inch broad jump). With the Combine behind him, Dixon is locked into our third spot at running back in this class behind Elliott and Henry, though other formidable runners like Devontae Booker, Paul Perkins, Jordan Howard and C.J. Prosise can all close the gap.

Projected round: 2-3