NFL Barometer: Snead, Saints Go Marching In

After a preseason full of projections and speculation, Week 1 is the easiest week to fall victim to either underreacting or overreacting. It's certainly not wise to look at a player's statistics and make a sweeping judgment without taking a close look at the underlying factors behind the performance. Opening weekend is the only real data point we have on players, so it's important to understand that next week can paint a completely different picture, but it would be foolish to summarily dismiss the happenings without a second thought.

RISING

Kelvin Benjamin, WR, CAR

Going into the opener, there were strong concerns Benjamin would be on a snap count as the team tried to ease him into the season. In addition, teammate Devin Funchess was being lauded as a potential 1A to Benjamin after an impressive offseason. Well, those plans were scrapped in a hurry after Benjamin saw a team-high 12 of Cam Newton's 33 pass attempts while Funchess caught a single pass on just four targets. Aside from being busy, Benjamin was also easily the most productive receiver on the squad, as he posted 91 yards and the only receiving touchdown the Panthers would score in their Super Bowl rematch. Sure, it's just one game, but he certainly looked like a player with the ability to physically dominate opposing cornerbacks.

Tajae Sharpe, WR, TEN

After hearing about the "exotic smash mouth" running game the Titans were planning to use, Marcus Mariota came out and fired 41 pass attempts in the season opener against the Vikings. This was great news for Sharpe, who showed that his fantastic preseason wasn't a mirage, as he hauled in seven of his 11 targets for 76 yards. He was clearly the primary receiver in the offense, and he led the team in both receptions and yardage. Although the team would prefer to run the ball often, they will clearly need to throw the ball as well, and being a number one target should ensure that he continues to see plenty opportunities to produce each week. There are certainly some leagues in which he'll be on the waiver wire, so this could be the last time to pick him up for free.

Jeremy Langford, RB, CHI

With Bears head coach John Fox talking up a running back by committee throughout the offseason, the Week 1 game plan revealed an entirely different story. The team had running backs carry the ball 20 times while seeing four pass targets, and Langford received every one of those touches with the exception of one rushing attempt that was handled by Ka'Deem Carey. It was especially encouraging to see him get the ball near the goal line, and even better when he was able to turn his opportunity into a touchdown. It should be noted, however, that he only ran for 3.4 yards per carry, a number that he'll need to improve if he wants to keep a stranglehold on his role as the unquestioned feature back. Those who spent a draft pick on him are looking great based on this small sample size.

C.J. Anderson, RB, DEN

Now that Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak has a quarterback who can roll out and take snaps under center, it appears that his running game can be as dominant as it's been during his coaching stops in the past. Anderson was the immediate beneficiary of the change, as he shredded the outstanding Panthers defense for 139 combined yards and a pair of scores in the season opener. Since Denver has outstanding wide receivers, teams will struggle to put enough defenders in the box to be able to shut the running back down on a regular basis. In addition, since the Broncos have an excellent defense of their own, there should be plenty of game scripts in which Anderson will be able to see heavy volume, which could allow him to post outstanding numbers. It's difficult to imagine he won't be a top option all season if he can stay healthy.

CHECK STATUS

Carson Wentz, QB, PHI

The rookie only saw 38 snaps in the preseason, but he couldn't have had a much better draw in the season opener than a home game against the Browns and their woeful defense. Here, Wentz mostly threw the ball to Jordan Matthews, Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz, each of whom posted at least 57 receiving yards. He specifically showed instant chemistry with Matthews, as he launched 14 passes in his direction, resulting in 114 yards and a touchdown for the wide receiver. It's fair to say that things will only get more difficult for him as the competition level increases, and he'll also have to deal with road games. For now, those in leagues that start two quarterbacks might consider making Wentz a preemptive waiver-wire pickup, but otherwise it seems prudent to take a wait-and-see approach.

Jordan Matthews, WR, PHI

It was fantastic news for Matthews that rookie quarterback Carson Wentz locked-in on him 14 times, and the receiver sure delivered with 114 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. It's certainly possible for Matthews to continue to pile up a big number of targets, which certainly would make him an excellent weekly lineup option. However, he had a remarkably easy matchup on the road against cornerbacks he was able to physically dominate. There also should be concern when his rookie quarterback faces a much more difficult opponent, especially in road games, which could hold back his top receiver. In addition, if Matthews continues to play at this level, defenses are sure to pay more attention to him, which could cause the rookie to throw the ball to players who appear more open.

Melvin Gordon, RB, SD

After not scoring a touchdown in his rookie season, Gordon broke out in a big way by scoring twice against the Chiefs in the season opener. He also carried the ball 14 times for 57 yards, which comes out to 4.1 yards per carry. However, that's where the good news ends. In a game the Chargers held the lead for a majority of the contest, Danny Woodhead had seven more touches than Gordon, which isn't typically the type of game script that favors Woodhead. In addition, Woodhead posted 5.6 yards per carry and added five receptions for 31 yards and a touchdown while Gordon failed to see a pass target. Since it's only one game, and he played well, there's reason for optimism that he could see an increased role this season, but there is also concern that he's simply the second-best running back on his own team.

Willie Snead, WR, NO

In the preseason, Snead appeared to have excellent chemistry with Drew Brees, as the receiver was finding vacated spots in the defense while his quarterback was delivering him perfect passes at exactly the right time. Well, the chemistry has obviously carried over into the regular season, as Snead tied Brandin Cooks for the team lead with nine pass targets, and he caught each of them resulting in 172 yards and a touchdown. It's true that the Saints are always a much more powerful offense in the Superdome, so games like this may prove difficult to come by, but this performance will certainly add to the trust his superstar quarterback already has in him. However, rookie Michael Thomas caught each of his six targets for 58 yards, so he certainly could be in the mix to cut into Snead's potential targets. In many leagues, he was drafted as a backup, but fantasy owners may need to begin re-assessing that plan.

FALLING

Devonta Freeman, RB, ATL

The Falcons' staff has talked up Tevin Coleman since the 2015 offseason after they spent a premium draft pick on him, and despite Freeman's amazing fantasy season last year, it's now clear that Coleman is expected to have a significant role in this backfield. Freeman didn't do himself any favors in the opener, as he could only turn his 11 rushing attempts into 20 yards, and he even disappointed as a receiver, posting just 20 yards on four receptions. In the meantime, Coleman was a little better on the ground (eight carries for 22 yards), but he also caught five passes for 95 yards. Overall, Atlanta gave 29 touches to their two running backs, and the split was 15-14 in Freeman's favor. With the door of competition now officially open, it appears he'll will have to thoroughly outplay his counterpart to get enough touches to come anywhere close to earning his value as a high pick in fantasy drafts. It's advisable to downgrade expectations for Freeman for at least the near future.

Delanie Walker, TE, TEN

Often, a player's role has much more to do with his fantasy value than simply his talent. Walker had an amazing season in 2015, but the veteran tight end was basically the Titans' de-facto number one receiver, and his heavy volume boosted his numbers. Although he's still basically the same player this year, the team brought in a number of players in order to have multiple options for Marcus Mariota to throw the ball to. In the opener, rookie Tajae Sharpe, Andre Johnson and DeMarco Murray each saw more than the five targets that went to Walker. Since he only saw five targets in a game in which his quarterback threw the ball 41 times, early results make it look as if he's headed for a statistical drop-off in 2016. It's still recommended to start him in fantasy lineups, though he might not post the amazing production of last year.

Coby Fleener, TE, NO

There was smoke in the preseason when reports had surfaced that Fleener was struggling with the Saints' offense, but that smoke quickly began to look like fire in the season opener when he only caught one pass for six yards. While Drew Brees was busy firing the football 42 times in the Superdome, his tight end only saw four of those targets while each of the team's top three receivers, along with running back Travaris Cadet, were posting big numbers. With his quarterback being such a precision passer, he always counts on his pass-catchers to be in the right place at the right time, which currently seems to be an issue for Fleener, and if that's the case, he could end up being a much smaller part of this potent offense than originally believed. For now, it might be best to bench him until he shows that he's ready to take advantage of his golden opportunity in New Orleans.

Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN

It's truly difficult to place Peterson in this section after just a single game, knowing it wouldn't surprise anyone if he came back with a 200-yard performance the following week. However, he had what seemed to be a very favorable matchup in the season opener against the Titans, but was only able to gain 31 yards on his 19 carries with a long of just nine yards. The main concern here was that the Tennessee defense chose to load up the box in the hopes of stopping him, and were willing to allow the Vikings to beat them with their passing game. Even though it's likely that Sam Bradford will be under center as soon as next week, it would seem probable that defenses will take the same approach in selling-out to take away the rushing attack. Furthermore, it's worth wondering whether or not a younger version of Peterson would've had a big game if placed in the same situation. Now, it's certainly not time to jump ship on the veteran, but if he struggles in his next game, it could be time to consider seeing what his trade value is.