This article is part of our On Target series.
I straight up missed on this analysis last week. I discussed the Chargers' wide receiver situation and essentially commented that Benjamin's role is unlikely to change. That did not exactly prove to be the case, as he finished with six targets but two touchdowns and the first TD was clearly something new he is being asked to do in San Diego, coming on a crossing route in the red zone (not something we would have seen him do in Cleveland). The Chargers paid Benjamin real wide receiver money and it seems that they definitely intend to have him play that way over the course of the year as they try to survive without Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead.
Forget low-end WR2 value for this guy; through two games, Diggs has a 31 percent market share of the Vikings' passing targets and a 54 percent share of their passing yards. Diggs was a super high pedigree prospect coming out of high school and simply lost his way his last two years at Maryland due to a broken leg and terrible QB play. Diggs is the odds-on favorite to be the next Antonio Brown-level player who went to a small school but has the amazing short area agility, hands, route running and tenacity to be one of the best 15 wide receivers in football. I expect this will be one of the last weeks you can possibly send out buy low offers for him in your
I straight up missed on this analysis last week. I discussed the Chargers' wide receiver situation and essentially commented that Benjamin's role is unlikely to change. That did not exactly prove to be the case, as he finished with six targets but two touchdowns and the first TD was clearly something new he is being asked to do in San Diego, coming on a crossing route in the red zone (not something we would have seen him do in Cleveland). The Chargers paid Benjamin real wide receiver money and it seems that they definitely intend to have him play that way over the course of the year as they try to survive without Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead.
Forget low-end WR2 value for this guy; through two games, Diggs has a 31 percent market share of the Vikings' passing targets and a 54 percent share of their passing yards. Diggs was a super high pedigree prospect coming out of high school and simply lost his way his last two years at Maryland due to a broken leg and terrible QB play. Diggs is the odds-on favorite to be the next Antonio Brown-level player who went to a small school but has the amazing short area agility, hands, route running and tenacity to be one of the best 15 wide receivers in football. I expect this will be one of the last weeks you can possibly send out buy low offers for him in your seasonal leagues and I'm willing to pay on the dollar to acquire him.
Vincent Jackson is dead. Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Cameron Brate can't decide who is going to play. Mike Evans currently leads the NFL in targets with 12 per game and if we ran simulations for the rest of the year, I would place bets on A.J. Green and Evans finishing the year with more total targets than every other player in football. Evans also only has one drop through two games, which sounds like damning with faint praise but for a wide receiver who led the NFL in drops last year, every game without one is a positive sign. Perhaps the most important thing for Evans is this: the man is simply a giant, and it appears his coaches finally took note of this and have started to use him in the end zone. If we combine loads of targets for Evans with him being the Bucs' primary red zone weapon, his second round tag is going to simply look silly.
This is NOT me sounding the alarm bells, but I am blowing on my little teeny surprised whistle. Through two games, it appears that playing with two other competent wide receivers for the first time in his career is having a negative effect on his fantasy value. Granted, if ODB just catches that 40-yard touchdown pass in the fourth quarter there is probably no way that I'm writing this segment, but it is illuminating that Beckham is no longer the volume machine that he was his first two seasons. He's still amazing, elite, fantastic, whatever superlative you want, and this is more about DFS than seasonal because I don't think you'll get a trade you want where you basically get two first round-level picks back for him, but I am scaling back my Beckham projections ever so slightly as I think he is losing about 20 targets over the course of the year given how well Shepard is playing. Again: Don't panic and trade him for Devonta Freeman and Allen Robinson, but if you can turn him into maybe Ezekiel Elliott and Diggs… welp, here we are.
Unlike with Beckham, I am officially sounding the alarm here. A big part of Robinson's value came from red zone targets and basically being the top goal line option for his team and I think he still is in that role, but if the Jaguars continue being this bad I am not even sure how many red zone targets this offense will generate. The great thing about Blake Bortles last year was that he was not afraid to embrace variance; when he was at his best, he was giving Hurns and Robinson chances down the field on 50/50 balls. Now, the Jags are playing the most sub-optimal Jeff Fisher brand of run on first down, run on second and throw on third and long. This is the exact opposite of how a team with a QB like Bortles should be trying to play and until we see real corrections from Gus Bradley and co., I'm benching Hurns in 12-team leagues and avoiding Jags like the plague in DFS.
Things we know:
1. DeSean Jackson is already hurt and not really cut out to be a WR1 fantasy, and;
2. Kirk Cousins might not be good but he is going to throw and throw and throw.
Crowder had an end zone target last week and 16 targets through two games. I don't know if I ever envisioned myself truthing for Jamison Crowder (who was a VERY highly productive WR at Duke but basically was terrible at the NFL combine), but any WR who is going to lead or be second on Washington in market share is going to be fantasy relevant. He should be owned in all 12-team leagues and if he's sitting out there on your waiver wire, you should rush to get him on your team as I think he's a weekly startable WR3/flex type play until something changes.
