NFL Barometer: Emerging Trends

After talking about the need to refrain from overreacting last week, we're just about at the point of the season where trends are emerging. So, it's time to start making lineup and roster decisions based on this year, as opposed to making them on preseason projections and perceived situations.

RISING

Jordy Nelson, WR, GB

There was plenty of concern as to how the 31-year-old would fare in his return from his ACL injury after sitting out the majority of the preseason. Although he scored a touchdown in Week 1, he only had 32 receiving yards, so skepticism remained a bit high. That's now a thing of the past, as he's posted 174 receiving yards and three touchdowns over his last two contests to re-establish himself as an elite fantasy option. To give context as to how impressive his yardage totals have been, he's accounted for 42 percent of Aaron Rodgers' passing yardage since Week 1. Although it's early in the season, is looking as if he'll be the only Packer in line for a dominant fantasy season.

Matthew Stafford, QB, DET

The Lions' signal-caller is showing that the hot second half of 2015 he put together wasn't just a short-term mirage. Through three games, he's averaging 328 passing yards to go along with 47 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. With the team's defense struggling to contain the above-average offenses they've faced so far, Stafford will likely find himself in a number of shootouts, which is sure to result in an excellent fantasy season. In addition, with the team lacking a physical rushing presence, the 40 pass attempts per game he's seeing will likely be the norm going forward. Unless he's on a fantasy roster in addition to a top-five option at quarterback, he should be a clear weekly starting option.

Marvin Jones, WR, DET

Calvin who? Okay, that's completely unfair, but Jones now has 408 receiving yards and two touchdowns in only three games played with the Lions. With Golden Tate seeing most of his targets in the short area of the field, Jones has become a primary downfield option for his gun-slinging quarterback Matt Stafford. He's posted a reception of at least 32 yards in each game, and his worst performance of the young season was when he caught four passes for 85 yards in the season opener. While playing behind AJ Green in Cincinnati, he had plenty of huge games, but nobody knew how good he really was. Those days appear to be over. It seems that his floor is that of a WR2 in fantasy leagues, but it wouldn't be a surprise if he finished in the top-10 at his position.

T.Y. Hilton, WR, IND

Hilton can easily be excused for his 41-yard performance at Denver in Week 2, as their defense can limit just about any opponent they face. He got back on track by piling up 174 yards and a touchdown against stud cornerback Jason Verrett and the Chargers, but the good news is that he's seen at least 11 targets in each game he's played this season. Although Andrew Luck will likely find himself under heavy pressure during most weeks, Hilton can do much of his damage from the slot, where he can catch the ball near the line of scrimmage, and use his game-breaking speed to make big plays. He may even be more dominant than usual while Donte Moncrief recovers from his injury, so don't be surprised if he performs as an elite receiver for the next month or so.

CHECK STATUS

Terrelle Pryor, WR, CLE

Sure, the 14 receptions for 144 yards were impressive with Cody Kessler at quarterback, but Pryor surprised just about everyone by lining up at quarterback against the Dolphins. He took advantage of his opportunities running the read-option to add an additional 21 rushing yards and a touchdown while also passing for 35 yards. As long as Josh McCown (collarbone) is forced to miss time, Pryor's ability in all three phases of the offense make him a very sneaky option in fantasy lineups. He could even have value once McCown returns, as he'll be lined up across the field from Josh Gordon, so he'll likely be a threat to score a long touchdown in any game he plays.

Stefon Diggs, WR, MIN

This clearly isn't the case of a player having a mediocre performance, leading to a downgrade. Let's flash back to Diggs' rookie season when he averaged over 100 yards and 0.5 touchdowns in his first four games as a professional. After his hot start, defenses started paying attention to him, and he never surpassed 66 yards in any of his remaining 10 games, including his lone playoff contest. In addition, he only scored in one of those games as well. Now back to the present: the loss of Adrian Peterson will make the second-year receiver the main focus of opposing defenses while the struggling offensive line will have difficulties giving Sam Bradford enough time to develop much of a downfield passing attack. He'll likely see enough volume to continue as a solid fantasy starter, but he might not be the league-winner that many were hoping for after the first two games of the season.

Steve Smith, WR, BAL

The 37-year-old continues to defy Father Time in his return from a ruptured Achilles tendon. After posting just 19 receiving yards in the season opener, he followed that up with 64 yards before catching 11 passes for 87 yards in Week 3. Although he's being primarily used on short-to-intermediate pass routes, he appears to have adjusted quite well to his new role, and he's now averaging 8.33 targets per contest. With Mike Wallace attracting heavy defensive attention due to his deep speed, Smith should continue to pile up the receptions. He'll need to start scoring some touchdowns to be a strong fantasy option, but for now, it's reasonable to consider him a third wide receiver based on volume.

Andrew Luck, QB, IND

Overall, his numbers have been decent so far, as his performance at Denver can hardly be held against him since the Broncos can put just about any quarterback in his place. The bigger concern is how he'll get through the season without suffering another long-term injury. Even though he's not being sacked a ton of times, he's getting hit extremely often, and it's hard to think that he can continue to escape getting hurt. Even when facing a suspect Charger secondary in Week 3, he needed a 63-yard touchdown to TY Hilton late in the game to keep him from having a performance with about 260 passing yards and zero touchdowns. Those who have him on their rosters might want to see what type of value he has in the trade market.

FALLING

Randall Cobb, WR, GB

It was largely assumed that Cobb would improve upon his disappointing 2015 campaign with the return of Jordy Nelson to occupy the attention of opposing defenses. So far, that doesn't seem to be the case. After a promising season opener in which he caught six passes for 57 yards, he's now averaging four receptions for 44 yards with no touchdowns over the first three games of the season. A big reason for the concern is that Aaron Rodgers is averaging just 206 passing yards per game, and there's simply not enough passing yardage to support high-level fantasy production from someone other than Jordy Nelson. It's likely that he still has quite a bit of trade value based on the success he's had in his career, and it wouldn't be a bad time to see what he could bring back from an owner who's waiting for him to explode.

Latavius Murray, RB, OAK

The Raiders had a respectable 25 rushing attempts in Week 3, but unfortunately Murray only had 10 of those attempts. His fantasy day was salvaged by a 22-yard touchdown run early in the contest, but he was a non-factor after that. The Raiders continue to give plenty of the backfield work to the team's other options, and it's clear that he's simply the leader of the committee. He's averaging fewer than 11 carries per game, but since he scored a rushing touchdown in each contest, so he could have trade value to fantasy owners who find themselves desperate for help at running back. This may be one of the last times this year to get maximum value for him.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, NYJ

After posting a career-year in 2015, when he threw for 3,905 yards 31 touchdowns and 15 interceptions, he may struggle to repeat his success after a slow start to the season. He's thrown for fewer than 190 yards in two games, and he only has a single touchdown pass over his last two contests. He laid an absolute egg in Kansas City this past week when he failed to throw a touchdown pass while throwing six interceptions. With three outstanding receivers at his disposal against the Chiefs secondary that had little depth, many of his passes were simply inexcusable. Things certainly could turn around, but as of now, it appears as if he's little more than a backup option in leagues that start one quarterback.

Vincent Jackson, WR, TB

We might be witnessing the beginning of the end for this once-outstanding player. Despite seeing 21 targets over his first three games, he's caught just nine passes for 99 yards, and he's yet to have a reception longer than 16 yards. It would seem that he should be doing much better with Mike Evans drawing the focus of defensive coordinators, but that's done little to help the 33-year-old make the defenses pay for ignoring him. In addition, Adam Humphries has more than twice the receiving yardage than Jackson, and the second-year receiver has a reception of at least 24 yards in each game. In most leagues, Jackson should likely be dropped.