This article is part of our NFL Barometer series.
A quarter of the NFL season is in the books, and fantasy teams have pretty much formed their identities. It's definitely time to start making some tough roster decisions if your team's off to a terrible start, and for those who've come out of the gate hot, it's always a good time to keep massaging your roster to prepare for a title run.
RISING
Jordan Howard, RB, CHI
In his first NFL start, Howard carried the mail for the Bears with 4.8 yards per carry and 111 yards. Head coach John Fox has frequently utilized a powerful running back to help his offense control the clock and set his defense up for success, and Howard appeared to fit this role perfectly, as he ran with power between the tackles while also showing the ability to bounce an occasional run to the outside to pick up solid yardage. Not only is he in great position to put up solid fantasy numbers while Jeremy Langford misses time with an ankle injury, but it's certainly possible that he's able to retain the early down and goal-line work.
Steve Smith, WR, BAL
The 37-year-old veteran started the season slowly, catching just 5-of-8 targets for 19 yards in the season opener, but he's returned to form as a high-performing fantasy option over the last few weeks. He's now had 11 pass targets in each of his last two games, turning his chances into 198 yards and a touchdown. Although he's been operating on shorter pass routes than we've seen in the past, he showed in his matchup against the Raiders that he still has the explosiveness to run by the defense, as evidenced when he secured a 52-yard score. There's no question as to whether he belongs in fantasy lineups, as he easily could be a top-25 option at the position.
DeMarco Murray, RB, TEN
Anyone who still believes that Murray is the same player who was a terrible fit in Chip Kelly's offense is wasting their time living in the past. He's one of the only running backs in the league who can consistently produce regardless of game script. He's now posted at least 119 combined yards in each of his last three games, and he scored five touchdowns on the young season. Despite his success, it seems that many in the fantasy community are expecting his production to drop off quickly, or for his teammate Derrick Henry to start taking over a significant portion of his workload. Although anything is possible, he looks like the outstanding dual-threat option that he was just two short years ago. It might be worth making a trade offer for him, especially if his current fantasy owner isn't confident that his outstanding season will continue. It's possible you might not even have to overpay for him.
Jimmy Graham, TE, SEA
It almost doesn't make sense that a completely healthy Graham struggled to find success in the Seattle offense before suffering his knee injury in 2015. It makes even less sense that he's had a pair of 100-yard performances in his return from the devastating injury. However, with Seattle's offensive line struggling to protect Russell Wilson, the quarterback may need to continue throwing from the pocket instead of scrambling around and looking to make plays. That seems to be a significant part of the reason why Graham has caught fire without notice, as the tight end is likely to run disciplined routes which should provide Wilson a reliable target to keep him from taking unnecessary hits. Although he clearly won't be posting 100 yards every week, he's quickly looking like a strong weekly option at tight end.
CHECK STATUS
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU
There's no question Hopkins is one of the league's most talented wide receivers, but it's starting to look as if his situation isn't likely to help them have a repeat season as a fantasy superstar. After being peppered with targets in 2015, he's averaging a mortal eight targets per game this season. In addition, he's caught just more than half of the targets thrown his way, and he's only surpassed 56 receiving yards once in four games. Much of his disappointing production is likely the result of quarterback Brock Osweiler, as he struggled consistently getting the ball to Demaryius Thomas when the duo played in Denver last year. Some may wonder how he's been able to get the ball to Will Fuller as well as he has, but the rookie has shown the ability to get completely behind the defense quickly, making those passes much easier for the quarterback. Although Hopkins will certainly have a number of big games this year, he doesn't look like the elite option he was drafted to be.
Michael Floyd, WR, ARI
Floyd had a phenomenal finish to the 2015 season, as he posted at least 100 receiving yards in five games down the stretch after recovering from a nasty preseason hand injury. Unfortunately, the veteran is off to an extremely disappointing start to the year, as he's yet to surpass 65 receiving yards in any game while scoring just once. In addition, he's yet to catch more than four passes in any contest, and he's caught less than half of his targets. Part of the issue is that Carson Palmer had a pair of games in which he failed to complete 54 percent of his passes, but it's also apparent that the chemistry between quarterback and receiver isn't quite what it was in the past. To add to the situation, Carson Palmer was knocked out of the Week 4 game with a head injury. It's possible Floyd will turn his season around after a slow start, but there's nothing to suggest that at this point.
Giovani Bernard, RB, CIN
The good news is that Bernard caught nine passes for 100 yards and a touchdown in Week 2 against the Steelers. Unfortunately, there have been plenty of negative factors to counteract that positive. Over four games, he's carried the ball 25 times for just 68 yards, and he's failed to surpass 44 total yards in three games to start the season. He's been especially bad in his two most recent contests, as he's rushed for just 1.73 yards per carry while averaging 43 combined yards without finding the end zone. Although the overall numbers are discouraging, it's certainly possible that the potential return of Tyler Eifert to the lineup in Week 5 could open up the field and create more space for the veteran running back, but for now, he's little more than a dart-throw flex option with upside.
Eddie Royal, WR, CHI
Despite not seeing more than seven targets in any game this year, Royal has now posted at least 52 yards in three of the four games he's played while scoring two touchdowns. Throughout his career, he's always been a very reliable route runner, and aside from Alshon Jeffery, he may be the most reliable receiver on the Bears' roster. He'll unquestionably have a very low floor in any given week, but in games in which the team is projected to play from behind, he'll clearly have value as a flex option. He's also shown the ability to be productive with both Jay Cutler and Brian Hoyer at quarterback, so his role seems secure even when the circumstances around him are in flux.
FALLING
Golden Tate, WR, DET
Tate likely should've appeared on this list last week, but he had a couple near-misses on big-play opportunities in Week 2, and it looked as if bad luck was a factor in his poor performance. Despite the fact he remains a talented player, he's caught just 7-of-19 pass targets for 54 yards over his last three games, and he's now played a quarter of the season without surpassing 41 receiving yards in any contest. He certainly could have a big game at a moment's notice, but it's hard to imagine that he'll be able to put together any type of consistency that would merit him a spot in fantasy lineups. It's also unlikely that he has much trade value, so consider it safe to drop him if the roster spot is needed during the bye weeks.
Andrew Luck, QB, IND
After exciting his fantasy owners with 385 yards and four touchdowns to open the season against the Lions, Luck fell back to earth when he threw for just a single touchdown and 197 yards at Denver. However, in his last two games, he's totaled three touchdowns and two interceptions against the Chargers and Jaguars -- teams that don't exactly have devastating pass rushes. It's becoming clear that the Colts' horrible defense will continue to hemorrhage points, putting Luck into pass-heavy game scripts most of the time. Although that's typically optimal for fantasy production, his offensive line looks incapable of protecting him enough to take advantage, which will leave him struggling to consistently put together scoring drives. He's a clear starting fantasy option, but he doesn't look like an elite one, and it might not be a bad idea to see what he could bring back in a trade.
Marcus Mariota, QB, TEN
The second-year quarterback took advantage of the Titans trailing in the fourth quarter in each of the first two games this season, as he used garbage time to throw a pair of touchdown passes in each contest. However, despite being placed in similar situations each of the last two weeks, he's failed to throw a touchdown pass during that stretch. He's also seen his yardage decrease each week after throwing for 271 yards in the season opener, and he's averaging just 218 passing yards over his last three games. In addition, he's thrown at least one interception in each game and hasn't been much of a factor as a runner, as he's yet to surpass 22 rushing yards against any opponent. At this point, he must be viewed as a bye-week or injury replacement, or a low-level option in leagues that start two quarterbacks.
Dwayne Allen, TE, IND
Once Coby Fleener left the Colts in free agency, it appeared as if Allen was in line for a major increase in pass targets. In addition, he appeared to be the most likely recipient of passes in both the middle of the field and in the red zone. After a solid season opener in which he caught four balls for 53 yards and a touchdown, many assumed that he was on his way to a very productive campaign. However, he's failed to catch more than three passes in any of his last three contests while averaging just 27 yards without reaching the end zone. During those same three weeks, Jack Doyle has had more receptions and receiving yardage. It may also hurt Allen's cause that he's a solid blocker, as that could force him to be used in pass protection while Doyle's freed up to run pass routes. He can safely be dropped in all but the deepest of leagues.
