This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | BEARS | 35.40% | 222.5 | 68.99% | 10.98 |
| BRONCOS | Chargers | 20.90% | 204 | 67.11% | 6.88 |
| Patriots | BILLS | 10.10% | 241 | 70.67% | 2.96 |
| COWBOYS | Eagles | 9.00% | 199 | 66.56% | 3.01 |
| Jets | BROWNS | 8.70% | 187.5 | 65.22% | 3.03 |
| TITANS | Jaguars | 7.50% | 168 | 62.69% | 2.80 |
| Bengals | Redskins*** | 2.00% | 145 | 59.18% | 0.82 |
| Chiefs | COLTS | 1.00% | 135 | 57.45% | 0.43 |
| FALCONS | Packers | 1.00% | 143.5 | 58.93% | 0.41 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in London
This is where Survivor gets interesting. There's only one team, the Patriots, even at 70 percent, and they're barely over the threshold. At only 10 percent ownership, they're the easy first choice - at least if you buy into Vegas' numbers. If you don't have the Pats available, it gets dicier. The Vikings are the next most likely to win at 69 percent, but their margin above the Broncos (67%) is small, and Minnesota's more heavily owned. The Cowboys and Jets are riskier plays, but (according to Vegas) not that much more risky, and they're ownership percentages are in the single digits.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
The Patriots were shut out 16-0 by the Bills in their first meeting, but that was with a banged-up Jacoby Brissett at quarterback rather than
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | BEARS | 35.40% | 222.5 | 68.99% | 10.98 |
| BRONCOS | Chargers | 20.90% | 204 | 67.11% | 6.88 |
| Patriots | BILLS | 10.10% | 241 | 70.67% | 2.96 |
| COWBOYS | Eagles | 9.00% | 199 | 66.56% | 3.01 |
| Jets | BROWNS | 8.70% | 187.5 | 65.22% | 3.03 |
| TITANS | Jaguars | 7.50% | 168 | 62.69% | 2.80 |
| Bengals | Redskins*** | 2.00% | 145 | 59.18% | 0.82 |
| Chiefs | COLTS | 1.00% | 135 | 57.45% | 0.43 |
| FALCONS | Packers | 1.00% | 143.5 | 58.93% | 0.41 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in London
This is where Survivor gets interesting. There's only one team, the Patriots, even at 70 percent, and they're barely over the threshold. At only 10 percent ownership, they're the easy first choice - at least if you buy into Vegas' numbers. If you don't have the Pats available, it gets dicier. The Vikings are the next most likely to win at 69 percent, but their margin above the Broncos (67%) is small, and Minnesota's more heavily owned. The Cowboys and Jets are riskier plays, but (according to Vegas) not that much more risky, and they're ownership percentages are in the single digits.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
The Patriots were shut out 16-0 by the Bills in their first meeting, but that was with a banged-up Jacoby Brissett at quarterback rather than Tom Brady, and a healthy LeSean McCoy. Still this is a road game between division rivals, so I give New England a 70 percent chance to win this game.
2. Dallas Cowboys
This is a dangerous pick, but which one isn't? The Eagles are a division rival with a good front seven, but the Cowboys offensive line and running game make them tough to scheme against. Moreover, Dak Prescott has been adept at avoiding mistakes. I give the Cowboys a 68 percent chance to win this game.
3. Denver Broncos
Like the Patriots, the Broncos lost to their opponent the first time around, but that too was under different circumstances, namely a Thursday night road game. Now Denver's at home, and Trevor Siemian isn't returning from a concussion. I give the Broncos a 69 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Minnesota Vikings - Their ownership (35%) is too high given their risk. The Bears are weak, but this is a bad set-up on the road Monday night against a division rival coming off 10 days rest.
New York Jets - The Browns are terrible, but using the Jets on the road is pushing it.
