NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Monday Night

New Orleans (+3.5) at Carolina, 52 o/u – Thursday, 8:25 p.m. EDT

Comments: While the Saints had the crazier loss last week, with the refs arguably blowing two separate calls on the Broncos' blocked extra point and return, the Panthers' last-minute loss to the Chiefs was the more heart-breaking one since they have less margin for error if they're going to salvage a playoff spot. At 3-6, Carolina basically has to run the table just to put itself in the wild-card mix, and there's no guarantee 10 wins will even be enough. On the bright side for the Panthers, Cam Newton looked more like himself in Week 10, picking up his fourth rushing TD and tying his season high with 54 yards on the ground. He's still got a feeble 2:1 TD:INT over his last three games, but facing a Saints defense allowing a league-high 293 passing yards a game should help. ... Carolina's pass defense has been almost as bad as New Orleans' though (the Saints are 25th with a 95.5 QB rating against; the Panthers are 21st at 94.8), and Drew Brees seems basically unstoppable after hanging a 10.4 YPA on the best secondary in the NFL. Conventional wisdom says Brees struggles on the road, but in his last two away games he's thrown for 690 yards and a 6:1 TD:INT, and the last time he saw Carolina's young secondary back in Week 6, he torched it for 465 yards and four TDs. ... Both teams come into this one basically healthy. Delvin Breaux (fibula) is still listed as questionable by the Saints, but after he played 77 snaps last week he should be fine.


Predictions: Mark Ingram leads the New Orleans backfield with 50 yards. Brees keeps rolling, throwing for 340 yards and four touchdowns, two to Brandin Cooks (who tops 100 yards) and one each to Coby Fleener and Willie Snead. Jonathan Stewart racks up 110 yards and a TD, while Fozzy Whittaker also catches a touchdown. Newton throws for 280 yards and two more scores to Greg Olsen and Ted Ginn. Panthers, 31-28

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (+8), 48 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: Last week's loss to the Cowboys was a bit of a gut punch, but hardly a knockout for the Steelers. Even at 4-5 and riding a four-game losing streak, they're still only one game back of the Ravens for the AFC North lead, and both Ben Roethlisberger and Le'Veon Bell came out of Week 10 firing on all cylinders. It also gives them plenty of incentive to take their frustrations out on the hapless Browns, but that's something they already have a lot of experience doing. Since 2010, Pittsburgh is 10-2 against Cleveland with an average margin of victory of a little over two touchdowns (14.8 points), so there's not a lot to suggest this will be any sort of trap game for the Steelers. ... On the other hand, those two Browns wins came at home in 2012 and 2014, so they've at least got an ominous pattern going for them. They've also got the Steelers' defense on their side. Over those last four games, Pittsburgh has given up 28.3 points and 134.8 rushing yards a game, and it wasn't just Ezekiel Elliott doing that damage. In fact, Terrance West has been the only starting running back in the last month not to put up at least 100 yards and score twice on the Steelers' defense. Unfortunately, Isaiah Crowell has looked a lot more like West than Jay Ajayi lately, only topping 30 rushing yards once in the last six games. If he's ever going to rediscover his early season form, it'll be now. ... Cameron Heyward's season-ending pectoral injury is the only one of note for either team.

Predictions: Bell explodes for 170 combined yards and another two TDs. Roethlisberger throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Antonio Brown, who pulls in 110 yards, and Sammie Coates. Crowell picks up 90 combined yards and scores, but Cody Kessler manages just 190 yards and a TD to Terrelle Pryor. Steelers, 31-14

Baltimore (+7) at Dallas, 45 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: The Ravens' defense has been one of the better units in the league so far, but they may just be scratching the surface. They rank in the top 10 in points allowed, passing yards allowed, QB rating against, YPA allowed, sacks (well, tied to 10th) and INTs, while dominating against the run, sitting first in YPC allowed and rushing yards allowed per game, and tied for first in rushing TDs allowed. They've accomplished that despite Elvis Dumervil (foot) only playing two games, C.J. Mosley (thigh) missing a couple of games before their Week 8 bye, and Terrell Suggs tearing his bicep in Week 6 but only missing one game. Jimmy Smith joins the list of walking wounded after injuring his leg last week, but he's expected to play. As those key pieces get healthier, Baltimore's defense could find another gear, which is a scary proposition for the teams looking up at them in the AFC North. ... Of course, the last time the Cowboys faced a league-leading run defense, Ezekiel Elliott mugged the Packers for a 5.6 YPC and 157 rushing yards. The rookie has been exceptional, but he also runs behind what appears to be a historically good offensive line. Watch Elliott's TD on a screen pass against the Steelers again (or don't, if you're a Pittsburgh fan) – the entire right side of the Cowboys' line is sprinting downfield ahead of him like they're tight ends and not 300-pound behemoths, looking for defensive backs to maul. The Ravens have a great front seven, but until someone actually demonstrates that they can manhandle that O-line and slow down the Cowboys' ground game, I'll continue to believe it can't be done. ... They have their lingering injuries on defense, which includes Timmy Jernigan (knee), but the Ravens shouldn't be missing any big games for this one. The biggest name on the injury report for the Cowboys is DeMarcus Lawrence (back), but he's coming off his best game of the season and should be fine for Sunday.

Predictions: Kenneth Dixon leads the Ravens backfield with 70 combined yards and a touchdown. Joe Flacco throws for 240 yards and a TD to Steve Smith, but gets picked off twice, with Byron Jones returning one of them to the house. Elliott piles up 110 combined yards and a score. Dak Prescott throws for 230 yards and a TD to Dez Bryant. Cowboys, 27-17

Jacksonville (+6.5) at Detroit, 47 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: The Jags' uncanny ability to lose winnable games was on full display last week. Blake Bortles threw a pick-six on Jacksonville's first possession, then hit Allen Robinson for a score and a two-point convert on their last possession to get within three, only for the defense to not get the ball back even after the Texans' muffed the kickoff and started their final drive inside their own 10. At least ARob is back to his old self again. Over the last three games he's racked up a 22-253-2 line on 40 targets, as Bortles and the coaching staff finally remembered that they have a true WR1 on their roster. The Lions have probably the worst pass defense in the NFL, allowing a league-worst 112.4 QB rating against (Aaron Rodgers' career QB rating is 103.3), so the Bortles-Robinson connection should supply plenty of fireworks in this one. Then again, it is the Jags. ... Detroit's being very cautious with Theo Riddick's ankle, limiting his workload in Wednesday's practice even coming out of their bye, but given that he's the only running back they have who seems capable of gaining any yards, it's understandable. Previously typecast as a third-down back, Riddick's had a YPC of 5.0 and 5.1 in the last two games, totalling 209 yards from scrimmage and a TD in those contests. The Jaguars are 29th in rushing yards allowed per game (124.0 per game), so assuming Riddick is a full go Sunday he should be able to make it three productive weeks in a row. ... Ezekiel Ansah will continue to play through an ankle injury, but DeAndre Levy (knee) isn't quite ready to return for Detroit. Jacksonville reports no significant injuries.

Predictions: Chris Ivory gains 80 combined yards. Bortles throws for 320 yards and TDs to Robinson (who hauls in 120 yards), Julius Thomas and Marcedes Lewis. Riddick hits for 110 combined yards and a touchdown. Matthew Stafford throws for 280 yards and three scores of his own, finding Golden Tate, Marvin Jones and Eric Ebron. Lions, 34-30

Tennessee (+3) at Indianapolis, 52.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: For the record, it took Marcus Mariota exactly one full season to get this pro football thing figured out. After playing 12 games as a rookie, he threw five INTs in his first four games as a sophomore, but since then he's reeled off an incredible 17:3 TD:INT with an 8.6 YPA over his last six games, elite numbers by any measuring stick. Much like Aaron Rodgers at his best, the guy he beat last week, Mariota's been using his mobility not to scramble for yards but buy himself time in the pocket before carving up the opposition's secondary. The Titans are also 4-2 over that stretch, which for them counts as a pretty fantastic run. One of those two losses was to the Colts too, so they've got motivation Sunday even beyond the fact they're almost within striking distance of the AFC South lead. With the Colts allowing a league-worst 288 passing yards a game, Mariota should be able to keep right on lighting it up. ... In that Week 7 win, Andrew Luck had one of his best games of the season, throwing for 353 yards and three TDs with a season-high 9.1 YPA. His receiving corps has also gotten healthier since then, as Donte Moncrief has now recovered enough from his shoulder injury to catch touchdowns in the last two games, while T.Y. Hilton is also off the injury report and apparently fully recovered from the hamstring injury he was playing through. ... Patrick Robinson, the starting corner for Indy who isn't Vontae Davis, is likely out with a groin injury, while the Titans report no significant injuries.

Predictions: DeMarco Murray scores for the sixth straight game, collecting 130 combined yards as well. Mariota throws for 270 yards and TDs to Tajae Sharpe and Delanie Walker, and runs in a third touchdown. Frank Gore rushes for 70 yards. Luck throws for 300 yards and TDs to Moncrief, Dwayne Allen and Phillip Dorsett. Titans, 28-24

Buffalo (+3) at Cincinnati, 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: The streaky Bills got a chance to reset on their bye, but it might have come too late. After dropping three straight heading into the bye, they now sit three wins back of both the Patriots and a wild card spot, and one more loss pretty much sinks their playoff hopes. The time off did give LeSean McCoy a chance to fully heal from his hamstring injury, although he looked just fine in Week 9 piling up 120 yards from scrimmage against the Seahawks. It also gave recently signed Percy Harvin more time to learn the playbook. The Bengals' defense has been surprisingly vulnerable this season, sitting 24th in rushing yards allowed per game and 25th in passing TDs allowed, so the more weapons Buffalo has available on offense, the better. ... While Cinci has a worse record than Buffalo at 3-5-1, they're in a better position for a playoff push with Baltimore leading the AFC North at just 5-4, and they might finally have the roster to do it. Tyler Eifert's recovered from his latest injuries to put up a 12-198-1 line over his last two games, giving Andy Dalton a reliable second option behind A.J. Green. Like the Bengals', the Bills' defense has been an overall disappointment, but their secondary has been very exploitable, ranking a miserable 31st in YPA allowed. If Dalton gets time in the pocket he should be able to shred them, but giving him that time has been an issue for the Cinci O-line all year – he's on pace to be sacked 50 times in 2016, which would be a new career high, after being brought down just 41 times in 29 games over the last two seasons. ... Robert Woods (foot) and Justin Hunter (groin) are both less than 100 percent for the Bills, while the Bengals report no major injuries. Also of note: Marvin Lewis is 6-6 in his career after a bye week as head coach, but Rex Ryan is just 2-5.

Predictions: McCoy scampers for 110 combined yards and a TD. Tyrod Taylor runs for 50 yards but throws for just 180, hitting Charles Clay for a score. Jeremy Hill leads the Bengals' backfield with 60 yards and a touchdown. Dalton throws for 290 yards and three TDs, two to Green (who pulls down 120 yards) and one to Eifert. Bengals, 31-20

Tampa Bay (+7.5) at Kansas City, 44.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: The Bucs have settled into a nice rhythm of beating up on bad teams like the Bears and 49ers, but getting wrecked by playoff contenders like the Falcons and Broncos, which points to a potential blowout in this one. After getting a partial workload last week to shake off his rust, Doug Martin should be at full speed for a matchup against a Chiefs team that ranks 27th in rushing yards allowed per game though, which might help them keep it close and take some pressure off Jameis Winston, who has the bigger challenge. He's been on a roll since Tampa's bye with a 10:2 TD:INT over the last four games (it's not Mariota-level, but it's still good), but Kansas City leads the NFL with 13 picks and is sixth in QB rating against. Winston's faced secondaries this good before, and it hasn't been pretty – he threw six INTs over two games earlier this year against Denver and Arizona. ... The Chiefs' passing game isn't usually associated with game-breakers, but that could be changing. Tyreek Hill turned 13 targets into 10 catches for 89 yards last week, and with Jeremy Maclin (groin) sidelined again, Hill should see another high-volume game against a Bucs defense that's fourth-worst in YPA allowed and tied for fourth-worst in passing TDs allowed. Hill's speed makes him a threat for a big gain and plenty of yards after the catch even in Andy Reid's short strike offense, and another impressive performance could cement him as Alex Smith's top target even after Maclin gets healthy. ... The Chiefs' defense is banged up, but only Marcus Peters (hip) seems to be in danger of missing Sunday's game, and Justin Houston (knee) seems on track to make his season debut. Jacquizz Rodgers (foot) remains out for the Bucs.

Predictions: Martin picks up 80 yards and a score. Winston throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Mike Evans, but gets picked off twice. Spencer Ware gains 120 combined yards and a TD. Smith throws for 250 yards and touchdowns to Hill and Albert Wilson. Chiefs, 27-14

Chicago (+7.5) at NY Giants, 45 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: So much for Jay Cutler finding his groove. He was brutal last week in Tampa Bay, and now Alshon Jeffery is suspended for a month. He's probably not in any danger of losing his starting job (one of the advantages of having Matt Barkley as your backup), and the Bears are playing for draft position anyway, but Cutler certainly isn't doing much to help his market value right now. Facing the Giants, who sit fourth in QB rating against and are one of just four teams left in the league with more INTs than TD passes allowed (along with usual suspects the Broncos, Seahawks and Cards), doesn't seem a likely spot to turn things around. Oh, did I mention the up to 20 mph winds that could be blowing in Metlife Stadium on Sunday? ... The Giants have finally found a decent balance in their offense, as Rashad Jennings was productive last week while Eli Manning still threw at least three TDs for the third time in the last four games, but they're hardly firing on all cylinders. Manning also threw two INTs in each of those multi-TD games, while Jennings' 109 yards from scrimmage in Week 10 was actually the high water mark for any Giants' RB this season. The one thing the Bears have done well this season is stop the run though, as they sit seventh in YPC allowed (right behind the Giants, who are in sixth), so coach Ben McAdoo's insistence on establishing his ground game first might cost them yet again. ... Eddie Royal will likely play through a toe injury for Chicago. New York reports no significant injuries.

Predictions: Jordan Howard bangs out 60 yards. Cutler throws for 220 yards and a TD to Zach Miller, but gets picked off three times. Jennings squeezes out 50 yards and a touchdown, while Paul Perkins gains 70 combined yards. Manning throws for 240 yards and scores to Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard. Giants, 24-10

Arizona at Minnesota (PK), 40.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: It was too predictable, really. The most productive RB in the league was facing the worst run defense in decades, so naturally David Johnson's performance last week ended up being something of a disappointment. Of course, 'disappointment' is a relative term. He didn't set any NFL records, but 101 yards from scrimmage and two TDs is still a huge day. DJ's now topped 100 combined yards in every game this season, and while in theory a matchup against the Vikings (10th in rushing yards allowed per game, just four rushing TDs allowed all year) should be a tough one, their offensive struggles have started to bleed over to the other side of the ball. Over the last three games, Jordan Howard gashed them for 153 yards, Theo Riddick ran for 70 on only 14 carries, and then Rob Kelley came three yards shy of 100. Needless to say, none of those guys are in Johnson's league. ... Part of the issue for Minnesota has been their play-calling. With Norv Turner gone, they've been passing more often – Sam Bradford averaged a little over 31 attempts a game during his first four starts as a Viking (all wins), but almost 40 a game in the last four (all losses). Game flow has certainly been a factor, as they've been playing from behind instead of with a lead, but they haven't exactly been getting blown out during that streak, losing by an average of about eight points. It might help if at least one of Matt Asiata, Jerick McKinnon or Ronnie Hillman could step up, but right now all three are just spinning their wheels in an ineffective committee. Arizona sits eighth in YPC allowed but second in QB rating against, so the Vikings might be better off relying on that committee rather than Bradford's arm. ... Tyrann Mathieu, a game-time decision due to a shoulder issue, is the biggest name on either injury report.

Predictions: Johnson has his usual eye-popping performance with 140 combined yards and a touchdown. Carson Palmer throws for 230 yards and a TD to Larry Fitzgerald. Asiata leads the Minnesota backfield with 50 yards and a score, with Hillman also getting into the end zone. Bradford throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Cordarrelle Patterson. Vikings, 24-20

Miami at Los Angeles (+1.5), 40 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Comments: O hai, Jared Goff. After Case Keenum failed to lead the offense to more than 10 points for the third straight game, Jeff Fisher finally caved and handed the reins to the rookie. If you think Fisher knows what he's doing when it comes to evaluating talent there's little reason to believe Goff will be any better than Keenum, but that assumes facts not in evidence, Your Honor. At the very least, the QB switch could be good news for Todd Gurley, who continues to fight for running room against eight-man boxes. Any ability to stretch the field shown by Goff will loosen things up for Gurley, and even playing through a thigh injury, he might not need much of a hole to start looking like he did last season. ... O hai, DeVante Parker. The Dolphins' receiver finally looked healthy last week, pulling in his second 100-yard game of the season. With Jarvis Landry (shoulder) and Kenny Stills (calf) playing through injuries, Parker's resurgence could be key to whatever playoff hopes the 5-4 Fish are still entertaining. The Rams are a tough defense to throw against (eighth in passing yards allowed per game), but as Parker showed towards the end of last season, when he's at his best he's capable of torching anyone. ... Back to Goff. Kenny Britt has been, by far, Keenum's favorite receiver, seeing 32 targets over the last four games, but there's no guarantee that volume will continue under Goff. If they developed any chemistry working together with the twos, Pharoh Cooper could be a deep sleeper, but Murphy's Law suggests Brian Quick will be the biggest beneficiary, since that's who I started over Parker last week in the Rotowire Steak League and have now switched back to the bench.

Predictions: Jay Ajayi runs for 70 yards and a TD, while Ryan Tannehill throws for 210 yards and a touchdown to Parker. Gurley pounds out 110 yards and two touchdowns. Goff doesn't set the world on fire, but avoids mistakes and throws for 230 yards and a score to Britt. Rams, 24-17

New England at San Francisco (+13), 51 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Comments: Rob Gronkowski may or may not have suffered a punctured lung last week, but he's not flying across the country either way, which leaves Martellus Bennett in line for a big workload once again. Of course, he's dealing with a nagging ankle injury of his own, but in the four games Gronk has missed or been limited in so far, Bennett's been feast or famine – he's got two 100-yard games, but just 24 receiving yards total in the other two. The rules never seem to apply to the Pats, but the Niners have been reasonably tough against TEs this year, sitting middle of the pack in yards allowed and advanced metrics like DVOA but only surrendering two TDs to tight ends. It's not a lock Bennett blows up just because Gronk is out. ... San Fran shocked the world last week in only losing to Arizona by a field goal, but even back at home, keeping it close with New England is another thing entirely. What chance they have of keeping pace with Tom Brady will come, not through Colin Kaepernick's arm, but his legs. He picked up his first rushing TD of the season last week, and the Pats have struggled to contain mobile QBs like Tyrod Taylor in the past. They also don't have Jamie Collins around any more to shadow him. All that said, the Niners are still giving up more than 180 rushing yards a game, which is fairly incomprehensible, and their 19 passing TDs allowed is tied for fourth-worst in the league. Don't look for any miracles here, no matter how much running Kaepernick does. ... Chris Hogan (back) is also out for the Pats. Torrey Smith injured his shoulder late in Week 10 but has never missed a game in his career, and he seems unlikely to do so now.

Predictions: LeGarrette Blount punished San Fran for 150 yards and three touchdowns. Brady cleans up the scraps, throwing for 240 yards and a TD to Julian Edelman. Carlos Hyde picks up 60 yards, while Kaepernick runs for 70 yards and a score, and throws for 200 yards and a touchdown to Vance McDonald. Patriots, 34-14

Philadelphia (+6.5) at Seattle, 44 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Comments: Carson Wentz continues to play like a rookie, failing to throw a TD pass last week for the second straight game. He's got a 4:5 TD:INT over his last six games since the Eagles' bye and has failed to break a 7.0 YPA in three of his last four while not exactly facing elite secondaries. That's exactly what he has to contend with Sunday in Seattle. The Seahawks are seventh in QB rating against and have surrendered a league-low six passing TDs, and now have Kam Chancellor healthy again too. Philly is still firmly in the NFC wild card picture at 5-4, even though they're at the bottom of the NFC East, but Wentz will need to adjust to what defenses are throwing at him quickly for them to stay in the hunt. ... If I'm Marshawn Lynch, I'm changing my phone number and not giving it to the Seahawks' front office. With Thomas Rawls close to healthy again, Christine Michael was a shocking mid-week cut, leaving the backfield in the hands of Rawls and C.J. Prosise, at least for now. Prosise looked good as a receiver against the Pats in Week 10, but wasn't exactly a terror between the tackles. Rawls is still coasting on his resume from 2015, as he got hurt in Week 2 and hasn't really had a chance to show he can hold up as a starting RB in the NFL. The Eagles' haven't been great against opposition RBs (24th in YPC allowed, 24th in DVOA against pass-catching backs), so whoever gets the touches for Seattle this week could be productive, but a muddled timeshare could also be in the works. ... Michael Bennett (knee) remains out for the 'Hawks. Jordan Matthews (back) and Zach Ertz (hamstring) are both less than 100 percent but should play.

Predictions: Ryan Mathews gains 60 combined yards. Wentz throws for 170 yards and gets picked off twice. Rawls runs for 50 yards and a TD in his return, but Prosise piles up 90 combined yards and a receiving touchdown of his own. Russell Wilson throws for 250 yards and a second score to Tyler Lockett. Seahawks, 27-3

Green Bay (+2.5) at Washington, 50.5 o/u – Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST

Comments: On the one hand, Aaron Rodgers is doing work. Over the last four games, he's averaging 310 yards and three TDs and has started to look more comfortable stretching the field as opposed to constantly dinking and dunking. On the other hand, the Packers are 1-3 over that stretch, with their defense coughing up 37 points a game over their three-game losing streak. If Mariota is the new Rodgers, then maybe Rodgers is the new Bortles, piling up futile production in garbage time to save his fantasy value. That could be tricky to manage on the road against a Washington defense that's given up only 10 passing TDs all season (tied for sixth in the league) as compared to 13 rushing TDs (tied for second-worst), but Mike McCarthy doesn't seem to trust his running game whether it's James Starks or Ty Montgomery (or even Christine Michael) in the backfield, so it'll probably be all on Rodgers yet again. ... Rob Kelley seized firm control of Washington's starting RB spot last week, just missing a 100-yard day and, most importantly, not fumbling. With Kirk Cousins the focal point of the offense, Jay Gruden will trade some explosiveness for ball security, which means Matt Jones could continue being a healthy scratch unless he starts working on his special teams play. Don't look for a big repeat performance from Kelley, though. The only backs to really humble a Green Bay run defense that's fourth in rushing yards allowed per game this year are either Cowboys (Zeke Elliott) or former Cowboys (DeMarco Murray), and Kelley's never worn the star. ... DeSean Jackson (shoulder) will be a game-time decision for Washington. Clay Matthews (hamstring) was able to practice in a limited fashion this week, and could return to action for the Pack.

Predictions: Starks runs for 70 yards and a score. Rodgers throws for 280 yards and TDs to Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams. Matthews makes a splash in his return with a fumble recovery in the end zone. Kelley grinds out 60 yards. Cousins throws for 340 yards and three touchdowns, two to Jamison Crowder and one to Jordan Reed. Washington, 30-28

Houston (+5.5) at Oakland, 46 o/u – Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST

Comments: The Texans continue to lead the AFC South almost be default. Brock Osweiler had been, frankly, pretty terrible even before throwing for a bargain-basement 99 cents, err, yards in Week 10, but a soft schedule and stout defense has made up for his shortcomings. Last week's road win in Jacksonville was their first of the season though, and the Raiders aren't the Jaguars. Lamar Miller's shoulder injury could also spell trouble, even though he's likely to play. Oakland's 31st in YPC allowed, but if Miller isn't 100 percent he could have trouble exploiting that matchup, leaving Osweiler responsible for keeping the offense moving, something that's been beyond him lately. ... The Raiders aren't really worried about how many points they give up though. They've scored 28 or more points in five of their six, winning all five, including the 30 they hung on the Broncos prior to their bye. The key has been Derek Carr's improved accuracy. His completion rate has spiked to an impressive 66.1 percent (it was 58.1 percent just two years ago), and he's only thrown three INTs in nine games. Houston's pass defense has been good – they sit eighth in QB rating against, and have given up just eight passing TDs – but they aren't ball hawks, having nabbed only four interceptions all season. Unless Carr falls back into bad habits, the Texans' margin for error on defense will be very thin. ... Latavius Murray (ankle) and Amari Cooper (back) are both questionable but should be in the lineup for the Raiders on Monday. In addition to Miller's injury, Will Fuller will be a game-time decision with a knee issue. The Texans' front line, already shy one MVP, is also banged up with Vince Wilfork (groin) and Jadeveon Clowney (wrist) on the injury report.

Predictions: Miller manages 80 yards and a TD. Osweiler rebounds to merely bad, throwing for 180 yards and a touchdown to DeAndre Hopkins. Murray runs for 100 yards and a score, while Jalen Richard also gains 70 combined yards and a receiving TD. Carr throws for 240 yards and second touchdown to Seth Roberts. Raiders, 27-17

Last week's record: 7-7, 5-8-1 ATS, 8-6 o/u
2016 regular season record: 84-61-2, 63-78-6 ATS, 74-71-2 o/u